Pool C

[Titan Q]

Matt Snyder still has Stevens in the East region instead of the Atlantic region after their move to the MAC Freedom.

I have corrected this. I was waiting for the Pre-Championship handbook to come out to confirm the changes.

Thanks for all you do in this regard; it's extremely useful.

Yes, Matt's data is the key to all of this Pool C projection work.  It's great stuff.

[Titan Q]

My updated look at Pool C. 

I am using Matt Snyder's data, which is through Saturday 1/11 games -  https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.

WP/SOS/Notable Wins

Pool C Projection
1. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC): .933/.579 (at Springfield)
2. UW-La Crosse (C/WIAC): .923/.548 (vs Augsburg, vs Augustana, vs UW-Stevens Point)
3. Tufts (NE/NESCAC): .846/.598 (vs Brandeis, at Nichols, at Wesleyan)
4. St. Thomas (W/MIAC): .846/.554 (at Whitman, vs Nebraska Wesleyan, at Augsburg)
5. Babson (NE/NEWMAC): .846/.533 (at Bates, vs Amherst, vs Tufts, at WPI)
6. Johns Hopkins (MA/CC): .846/.581 (vs Christopher Newport, vs Muhlenberg)
7. Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC): .846/.574 (at Guilford, vs Christopher Newport, vs Washington & Lee)
8. Mount Union (GL/OAC): .769/.592 (vs Albion, at Wooster, at John Carroll)
9. Wooster (GL/NCAC): .846/.571 (at Allegheny, vs Brockport, vs Whitworth)
10. Buena Vista (W/ARC): .857/.545 (at Loras)
11. Wash U (C/UAA): .833/.523 (vs UW-Eau Claire, vs Augustana, at IWU)
12. WPI (NE/NEWMAC): .769/.544 (vs Brandeis, vs Tufts)
13. Rochester (E/UAA): .750/.636 (vs Utica, vs Ithaca)
14. Stevens (AT/MACF): .769/.565 (at Rutgers-Newark, vs Johns Hopkins)
15. Wesleyan (NE/NESCAC): .750/.584 (at Gwynedd Mercy, vs Amherst)
16. Guilford (S/ODAC): .733/.572 (vs Mary Hardin-Baylor, vs Berry, at Emory)
17. Benedictine (C/NACC): .769/.539 (vs St. Norbert, vs LeTourneau, at North Central)
18. Texas-Dallas (S/ASC): .714/.591 (vs UW-Stevens Point, at Mary Hardin-Baylor, at LeTourneau)
19. UW-Stevens Point (C/WIAC): .714/.609 (at Christopher Newport, vs East Texas Baptist)
20. Brockport (E/SUNYAC): .727/.579 (vs Hobart, vs Cortland)
--------------------------
21. Amherst (NE/NESCAC): .714/.558 (vs Springfield, vs Middlebury)
22. Mary Hardin-Baylor (S/ASC): .714/.550 (vs Whitman, vs UW-Platteville)
23. Elmhurst (C/CCIW): .929/.490 (vs St. Norbert, vs Augustana)
24. UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC): .714/.572 (vs Whitworth)
25. Albertus Magnus (NE/GNAC): .917/.479 (vs WPI)
26. Hamilton (NE/NESCAC): .786/.553 (vs Nichols)
27. Augsburg (W/MIAC): .769/.559 (at Bethel)
28. Oswego State (E/SUNYAC): .818/.512 (at Ithaca)
29. Cortland (E/SUNYAC): .818/.510  (at Gwynedd Mercy)
30. John Carroll (GL/OAC): .769/.505 (vs Case Western Reserve, vs Whitworth)
31. Hanover (GL/HCAC): .750/.515 (at Wheaton)
32. LeTourneau (S/ASC): .692/.585 (at Millsaps, at Millsaps, vs Whitman)
33. Millsaps (S/SAA): .714/.542 (vs East Texas Baptist, vs Texas-Dallas)
34. Carthage (C/CCIW): .769/.518 (vs North Central)
35. Brandeis (NE/UAA): .750/.530 (vs Bates)
36. Ithaca (E/LL): .700/.539 (at Cortland)
37. Allegheny (GL/NCAC): .692/.575 (at Penn St-Behrend)
38. Bethel (W/MIAC): .692/.530 (at UW-Stevens Point)
39. Muhlenberg (MA/CC): .769/.511 (n/a)


Assumed Pool A (all conferences are not included here)
NEWMAC = Springfield
NESCAC = Colby
CCC = Nichols
GNAC = St. Joseph (Conn.)
LEC = Rhode Island College
UAA = Emory
LL = Hobart
E8 = Utica
MACF = DeSales
MACC = Widener
SUNYAC = SUNY Oneonta
NJAC = Rutgers-Newark
SKY = Yeshiva
CC = Swarthmore
LAND = Drew
CAC = Christopher Newport
ODAC = Randolph-Macon
SAA = Centre
ASC = East Texas Baptist
MIAA = Albion
NCAC = Wittenberg
OAC = Marietta
HCAC = Hanover
WIAC = UW-Platteville
CCIW = North Central
NACC = Wisconsin Lutheran
MWC = St. Norbert
ARC = Nebraska Wesleyan
MIAC = St. John's
NWC = Whitworth
SCIAC = Pomona-Pitzer

[Colby Hoops]

Thanks for posting this Titan Q. If you assume Middlebury wins the Nescac where would you have Colby ranked in the Pool C projection now? Curious if anything has changed in your view since you last posted one of these.

[PauldingLightUP]

Thanks for posting Q. It should be noted that the UW-Eau Claire game against Whitworth was a neutral site game at WashU.  I see you have gone back and forth a few times between vs and at in the editions.

[Titan Q]

Thanks for posting this Titan Q. If you assume Middlebury wins the Nescac where would you have Colby ranked in the Pool C projection now? Curious if anything has changed in your view since you last posted one of these.

0.478 SOS is not competitive -- especially when you combine that with no "notable wins" (my proxy for RRO at this stage).

I'd have Colby somewhere below Elmhurst.

[nescac1]

Colby's schedule is ridiculously back-loaded this year.  Six straight road games ahead, including at Williams, Midd and Tufts, followed by the Amherst/Hamilton home weekend.  There will be some notable wins and a quick rise in SOS if Colby plays well down the stretch (or a chance to fall rapidly if they don't).  Colby's schedule is hurt a bit by the worst Bowdoin team in recent memory (two games against a typically solid opponent who is struggling this year) and New Jersey City and Ramapo, which initially looked like very strong wins, playing (I think?) below expectations. 

[Fifth and Putnam]

Wittenberg...#2 in the country...13-0 is currently running at a .458 SOS. That is obviously going to rise a bit as conference play gets going but how much danger are they in if they take a couple losses here and fail to win the AQ? Remember La Roche missed the tournament last year with this:

24-3 (.889) 0-1 (RRO) .510 SOS

[Titan Q]

Wittenberg...#2 in the country...13-0 is currently running at a .458 SOS. That is obviously going to rise a bit as conference play gets going but how much danger are they in if they take a couple losses here and fail to win the AQ? Remember La Roche missed the tournament last year with this:

24-3 (.889) 0-1 (RRO) .510 SOS

Great point about Witt's SOS.  I didn't even look since I just penciled them in as Pool A.

Any sub-.500 SOS is trouble.

That hypothetical final resume you have above for Witt -- very end of the bubble at best.

[sac]

Witt will get 2 or 3 RRO's just playing Wooster, probably 1 more with Hanover.   One of OWU or Wabash could end up ranked as well.  So max 7 RRO's to as little as 3.

Their head-to-head win over Hanover could loom large as far as placement within the GL Region.

[KnightSlappy]

I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

[Titan Q]

I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

Witt is probably pretty safe...but a good catch here that they are not a lock at all due to that SOS.

[Titan Q]

The CCIW is in horrendous Pool C shape at this very moment.

[KnightSlappy]

The CCIW is in horrendous Pool C shape at this very moment.

Elmhurst looks good if they stay strong. North Central is bubble and will need strong vRRO. Everyone else either needs to go on a monster run or win the AQ.

This underscores the fact that Pool C candidacy does not always match up well with team strength.

[sac]

I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

For those of us who've been around awhile, amazing to think 3 wins over Oberlin could help them.

[kiltedbryan]

I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

For those of us who've been around awhile, amazing to think 3 wins over Oberlin could help them.

Kinda wild both that Wittenberg has played only three .500+ teams so far, and that two of them are Oberlin (8-5) and Allegheny (9-4), with Hanover (10-3) as the more expected third.

In addition to playing some genuinely terrible teams, Witt's SOS must be feeling impact of a few traditionally OK-to-good squads on their schedule who have regressed this year, especially: Mt. St. Joseph (3-10 this year, 17+ wins the preceding 5 years); Eastern Mennonite (3-11 this year, usually .500ish or better the past decade); Ohio Northern (5-8 this year (1-5 OAC), also usually .500ish in past decade).