Pool C

[Fifth and Putnam]

I'm projecting Wittenberg to end up with a .504 SOS, so there's a very real chance that ends up below .500.

Currently projecting them to be heading into the conference tournament at .915/.504. As sac points out, RROs could be strong. If they make the NCAC finals, I do not see Pool C being a problem as the SOS will probably be a few points higher.

...but just win your conference AQ.

For those of us who've been around awhile, amazing to think 3 wins over Oberlin could help them.

Kinda wild both that Wittenberg has played only three .500+ teams so far, and that two of them are Oberlin (8-5) and Allegheny (9-4), with Hanover (10-3) as the more expected third.

In addition to playing some genuinely terrible teams, Witt's SOS must be feeling impact of a few traditionally OK-to-good squads on their schedule who have regressed this year, especially: Mt. St. Joseph (3-10 this year, 17+ wins the preceding 5 years); Eastern Mennonite (3-11 this year, usually .500ish or better the past decade); Ohio Northern (5-8 this year (1-5 OAC), also usually .500ish in past decade).

A lot of times, these games are scheduled more than a year in advance. At the time, those games probably looked more competitive than they unfortunately ended up being. Toss in a high end holiday tournament that falls through unexpectedly and you're scrambling just to get 25 games and you're not really worried about who it is at that point. Scheduling isn't easy (I've dabbled in it myself trying to fill 8 teams for the GLI each year) and coaches are filling schedules it seems earlier and earlier to get ahead. It's hard to know what teams are going to be good next week much less trying to guess two years out.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I think a lot of people are assuming things don't change. Teams can get on runs in their own conferences and suddenly no longer be a sub-.500 team. Just as teams can fall apart and go from a decent record to a sub-.500 team.

While I find this Pool C thing odd this time of the year (or really in December when it started), I find it odder that many seem to assume status quo moving forward in terms of team's WL% that impact the SOS numbers. There is a reason SOS numbers swing wildly until about mid-February (or beyond depending on the team and conference). So many things are changing on a daily basis.

Let's wait it out a bit more before we assume team's opponents are finishing with the records they currently have.

[Flying Dutch Fan]

You may be right Dave, but then again since we have never had these conversations this early before, it will be extremely interesting to compare the real results with how we are evaluating them throughout the season.  Maybe we find out it was a complete waste of time (aka like lots of what we do on these boards).  Maybe we will find some interesting trends or "predictors".  Either way, it's fun for now.

After all, prognostication and speculation is what we do around here. 

[Titan Q]

I think a lot of people are assuming things don't change. Teams can get on runs in their own conferences and suddenly no longer be a sub-.500 team. Just as teams can fall apart and go from a decent record to a sub-.500 team.

While I find this Pool C thing odd this time of the year (or really in December when it started), I find it odder that many seem to assume status quo moving forward in terms of team's WL% that impact the SOS numbers. There is a reason SOS numbers swing wildly until about mid-February (or beyond depending on the team and conference). So many things are changing on a daily basis.

Let's wait it out a bit more before we assume team's opponents are finishing with the records they currently have.

I don't think anyone is assuming "things don't change", Dave.  Maybe I am missing something above, but seems to me everyone here understands my projection is simply based on numbers through last Saturday...and as numbers change, the projection changes.

It seems pretty valuable to have a high level, general sense of where Pool C stands as the season plays out.  It makes it more clear what some of the big conference races and games are.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I've read comments here and on Twitter where there are projections on how numbers will finish and such.

I just think there are far too many things that can change, and significantly, at the midway point of the season.

[Titan Q]

I've read comments here and on Twitter where there are projections on how numbers will finish and such.

I just think there are far too many things that can change, and significantly, at the midway point of the season.

I think the discussion you are referring to is about SOS -- I think it was all about Wittenberg's SOS? 

Everyone who participated in that discussion knows the Pool C process really well -- especially the part about numbers changing from mid-January to late-February. If that is what your concerned about - making sure people know that - I think we are good. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

There are six weeks left in the regular season, but the grind of conference schedules can make it feel like the end is a long ways off.

As teams try and focus on each game in front of them, the ramifications of each outcome grow larger and larger. Conference tournament seeding (or even participating), at-large hopes, and to a larger degree opportunities to be home in March with the hopes of a national championship as the goal.

Thursday on Hoopsville, we chat with a few programs that are on top of their conference races (or were), but the standing could change in just one game. We chat about how teams deal with being everyone's target or how to survive the grind.

Plus, relationships with a program's alumni can go a long way to how successful the program becomes and even the institution on a larger scale. In this week's WBCA Center Court, MIT coach Sonia Raman discusses what prompted her to get alums more involved and how it has resulted in a significant increase in contributions as well.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/2TrjT6B (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/jan16)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

Thursday's show primarily covers the East, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and West Regions while also featuring a women's coach in the WBCA Center Court segment. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3hoops.com or use any of the social media options.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Sonia Raman, MIT women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Dale Wellman, No. 11 Nebraska Wesleyan men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Darryl Keckler, Drew men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Juli Fulks, No. 9 Transylvania women's coach

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville


 
   
We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
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[kiltedbryan]

Of course things will change going forward...that's the whole fun of this! 

I do think it's sensible to think about the Pool C SOS challenge Wittenberg could face, though. And it doesn't have to rely on the future, we can just look at the hole that's already been dug. What's happened has happened, and losses already incurred are staying on the books.

For example, let's compare Great Lakes and NCAC rivals Wooster and Wittenberg. In the regular season, they'll each have the same 18 NCAC games, so the SOS impact there is a draw (NCAC tourney will have an impact, but set that aside for now). The SOS differential will primarily come through their seven non-conference opponents. Those seven opponents' collective records to-date:

Wooster: 54-42 (.563)
Wittenberg: 36-63 (.364)

Ouch, Witt, ouch.

That 21-game loss column differential is the comparative "hole" Witt has going forward. In standings terms, Witt's opponents' record is 19.5 "games back" of Wooster's right now. Obviously "games back" is irrelevant to the Pool C selection criteria, but it maybe gives a better sense of the type of deficit Witt's SOS is facing compared to other teams with good SOS numbers. And for a sense of how challenging it would be for Witt's SOS to "catch up" to Wooster (or other strong national Pool C contenders...), consider if Wooster's non-conference opponents hold serve at .500 the rest of the way. To "catch" Wooster's opponents, Witt's would have to 40 games over .500 over approximately 75 games (7 teams * 10/11 games each). That's a future record such as 58-17 (.773), which is unlikely enough as it is, and doubly so when these teams have gone .364 across their first 100 games played.

[kiko]

Perhaps I'm a minority in this, but given how much will evolve in the weeks ahead -- including regular season conference winners that lose in their conference tournament and find themselves staring at a Pool C path rather than a Pool A path -- it might make sense to include WP/SOS/Notable Wins for the teams currently in Pool A positions, and not just teams currently in Pool C positions.  The thinking being that if Team X falls out, you have a sense of whether they would be safe, bubbly, or in the deepest of trouble.

Of course, I'm not the one putting in the time on this, so I have no idea how much extra work I'm asking for.  So my apologies in advance if this is a 'quit your day job and cater to my needs' sort of request...

[Titan Q]

Some top games today in terms of Pool C:

* Sul Ross State at East TX Baptist, 1:30pm
* Amherst at Tufts, 3pm
* Wittenberg at Wooster, 4
* Cortland at Oswego St, 4
* Guilford at RMC, 4:30
* Platteville at La Crosse, 6
* Elmhurst at Wheaton, 8
* Eau Claire at Stevens Point, 8

[kiltedbryan]

Wittenberg 86
Wooster 98

Wooster turned in a masterpiece and blitzed Wittenberg right out of the gym in a game that surprisingly wasn't even as close as the final score indicated. The Scots went into the half up 52-33 then maintained a 20+ advantage until the final two minutes. A bit of sloppiness at the end narrowed the margin, but outcome was never in doubt.

Excellent win to burnish the future Pool C resume for the Scots.

[Greek Tragedy]

After Point beat Platteville on the road, they fall to Eau Claire at home. Big dent on their Pool C hopes.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

With conference action always comes surprises. There are teams who upset those at the top of the conference and make the races a bit more interesting. That is especially true for programs who look to distance themselves from the rest of the conference, but a surprising loss keeps those plans at bay.

Sunday night on Hoopsville, we continue to dive into conferences races across the country and look at how the last week's results have either helped clear up races or made them more messy. Plus we talk to several conference leaders to find out how they are faring.

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Sunday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/37lbXrm (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/jan19)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

Sunday's show primarily covers the Atlantic, Central, South, and Northeast Regions. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to dave.mchugh@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Jenna Cosgrove, Rhode Island College women's coach
- John Baines, No. 10 Elmhurst men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Greg Mason, Centre men's coach (NABC Coach's Corner)
- Bob Quillman & Ryan Scott, Top 25 Double-Take

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville


 
   
We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
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Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
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Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
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[Titan Q]

My latest Pool C projection.  First starting with mock regional rankings (games through Sunday 1/19).

All data is courtest of Matt Snyder -- http://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.

Winning Percentage/Strength of Schedule/Results vs Regionally Ranked

A = Assumed conference champion
C = Assumed Pool C candidate



Atlantic
C - Stevens (AT/MACF)  .800/.543/3-2
A - Stockton (AT/NJAC)  .688/.525/2-1
A - Yeshiva (AT/SKY)  .923/.480/0-0
C - Rutgers-Newark (AT/NJAC)  .625/.544/2-4
A - DeSales (AT/MACF)  .733/.510/0-1
B - Gwynedd Mercy (AT/AEC)  .750/.465/0-1
C – SUNY-Purchase (AT/SKY)  .643/.501/2-0
C - TCNJ (AT/NJAC)  .533/.585/1-5

Central
A - UW-Platteville (C/WIAC)  .857/.602/4-1
C - UW-La Crosse (C/WIAC)  .867/.542/2-1
A - Benedictine (C/NACC)  .800/.523/3-0
A - Wash U (C/UAA)  .846/.533/1-1
A - North Central (C/CCIW)  .813/.513/1-1
C - Elmhurst  (C/CCIW)  .938/.516/1-1
A - St. Norbert (C/MWC)  .867/.554/1-2
C - UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC)  .688/.583/1-3
---
C - UW-Stevens Point (C/WIAC)  .688/.624/2-4
C - Illinois Wesleyan  (C/CCIW)  .688/.541/0-2
C - Augustana (C/CCIW)  .688/.576/0-3
C – UW-Oshkosh (C/WIAC)  .625/.620/3-4

East
A - RPI (E/LL)  .846/.505/2-1
A - Brockport (E/SUNYAC)  .786/.570/3-1
C - Hobart (E/LL)  .800/.552/2-2
C - Rochester (E/UAA)  .714/.612/1-4
C - Union (E/LL)  .692/.574/1-3
C - Utica (E/E8)  .733/.543/0-2
C - Oswego State (E/SUNYAC)  .846/.508/0-1
C - SUNY Oneonta (E/SUNYAC)  .692/.505/0-1

Great Lakes
C - Mount Union (GL/OAC)  .800/.570/4-0
A - Wooster (GL/NCAC)  .867/.589/4-2
A - Marietta (GL/OAC)  .933/.507/3-0
A - Albion (GL/MIAA)  .867/.563/1-2
C - Wittenberg (GL/NCAC)  .933/.486/1-1
C – Allegheny (GL/NCAC)  .667/.537/1-2
C – Ohio Wesleyan (GL/NCAC)  .667/.564/1-3
C - John Carroll (GL/OAC)  .733/.506/1-2

Middle Atlantic
A - Swarthmore (MA/CC)  1.000/.584/6-0
C - John Hopkins (MA/CC)  .867/.568/4-2
A - Christopher Newport (MA/CAC)  .778/.573/2-3
C - Drew (MA/LAND)  .800/.534/2-1
C - York Pa. (MA/CAC)  .706/.554/3-4
A - Widener (MA/MACC)  .929/.505/0-1
C - Muhlenberg (A/CC)  .733/.512/0-2
A - Scranton (MA/LAND)  .800/.486/0-1

Northeast
C - Tufts (NE/NESCAC)  .813/.606/4-2
A - Colby (NE/NESCAC) 1.000/.522/1-0
C - Middlebury (NE/NESCAC)  .889/.580/3-2
A - Springfield (NE/NEWMAC)  .800/.616/1-3
C – Brandeis (NE/UAA)  .786/.547/3-2
C - Babson (NE/NEWMAC)  .800/.524/3-1
C - Amherst (NE/NESCAC)  .688/.570/3-2
C - Albertus Magnus (NE/GNAC)  .857/.509/2-1
C - WPI (NE/NEWMAC)  .800/.527/2-2
C – Emerson (NE/NEWMAC) .714/.576/1-3
A - St. Joseph CT (NE/GNAC)  .846/.506/0-1
-----
C - Hamilton (NE/NESCAC)  .688/.570/2-3
A - Western New England (NE/CCC) .688/.580/0-1

South 
C - Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC)  .867/.561/2-0
C - Emory (S/UAA)  .857/.564/2-2
A - Randolph Macon (S/ODAC)  .938/.507/2-0
C - Texas-Dallas (S/ASC)  .750/.587/2-1
C - Guilford  (S/ODAC)  .706/.566/2-3
C - Mary Hardin-Baylor (S/ASC)  .750/.545/1-2
A - Centre (S/SAA)  .875/.539, 0-0
C – LeTourneau (S/ASC)  .733/.526/0-3

West
A - Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC)  .882/.556/2-1
A - St. John's (W/MIAC)  .933/.515/3-1
A - Whitworth (W/NWC)  .800/.544/1-3
C - St. Thomas (W/MIAC)  .867/.551/2-2
C - Buena Vista  (W/ARC)  .867/.545/0-1
C - Augsburg  (W/MIAC)  .769/.542/1-3
C – Bethel (W/MIAC)  .667/.539/0-4
A - Pomona-Pitzer (W/SCIAC)  .900/.458/0-0
----
C - Claremont-Mudd-Scripps (W/SCIAC)  .786/.503/0-1

[Titan Q]

And then the Pool C process...

The group at the table when the Pool C process starts
AT - Stevens (AT/MACF)  .800/.543/3-2
C - UW-La Crosse (C/WIAC)  .867/.542/2-1
E - Hobart (E/LL)  .800/.552/2-2
GL - Mount Union (GL/OAC)  .800/.570/4-0
MA - John Hopkins (MA/CC)  .867/.568/4-2
NE - Tufts (NE/NESCAC)  .813/.606/4-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC)  .867/.561/2-0
W - St. Thomas (W/MIAC)  .867/.551/2-2

The 20 selections
1. John Hopkins (MA/CC)  .867/.568/4-2
2. Tufts (NE/NESCAC)  .813/.606/4-2
3. Middlebury (NE/NESCAC)  .889/.580/3-2
4. Mount Union (GL/OAC)  .800/.570/4-0
5. Virginia Wesleyan (S/ODAC)  .867/.561/2-0
6. St. Thomas (W/MIAC)  .867/.551/2-2
7. UW-La Crosse (C/WIAC)  .867/.542/2-1
8. Brandeis (NE/UAA)  .786/.547/3-2
9. Emory (S/UAA)  .857/.564/2-2
10. Stevens (AT/MACF)  .800/.543/3-2
11. Drew (MA/LAND)  .800/.534/2-1
12. Hobart (E/LL)  .800/.552/2-2
13. Babson (NE/NEWMAC)  .800/.524/3-1
14. Elmhurst  (C/CCIW)  .938/.516/1-1
15. Texas-Dallas (S/ASC)  .750/.587/2-1
16. York Pa. (MA/CAC)  .706/.554/3-4
17. Buena Vista  (W/ARC)  .867/.545/0-1
18. Wittenberg (GL/NCAC)  .933/.486/1-1
19. Rochester (E/UAA)  .714/.612/1-4
20. Amherst (NE/NESCAC)  .688/.570/3-2

The final group at the table (round 20)
AT - Rutgers-Newark (AT/NJAC)  .625/.544/2-4
C - UW-Eau Claire (C/WIAC)  .688/.583/1-3
E - Union (E/LL)  .692/.574/1-3
GL - Allegheny (GL/NCAC)  .667/.537/1-2
MA - Muhlenberg (A/CC)  .733/.512/0-2
NE - Amherst (NE/NESCAC)  .688/.570/3-2
S - Guilford  (S/ODAC)  .706/.566/2-3
W - Augsburg  (W/MIAC)  .769/.542/1-3