Pool C

[sac]

Oshkosh got in with 16-10 though so its never over till its over.

Both Point and Oshkosh have +.600 SOS at the moment, and both looking at a half dozen or more RRO's, if an outlier happens this year its one of these two.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First Regional Rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-first

[Greek Tragedy]

Here's the central

1. Platteville - 0.842 W% - 0.566 SOS
2. Wash U - 0.800 - 0.565
3. Benedictine - 0.857 - 0.493
4. SNC - 0.857 - 0.536
5. Eau Claire - 0.714 - 0.580
6. NCC - 0.810 - 0.523
7. Augustana - 0.727 - 0.578
8. Elmhurst - 0.818 - 0.526

----------------------------------

La Crosse - 0.762 - 0.530
Oshkosh - 0.619 - 0.618
Stevens Point - 0.667 - 0.603
IWU - 0.667 - 0.557
Wheaton IL - 0.619 - 0.546

[D3RetiredHooper]

Here's the central

1. Platteville - 0.842 W% - 0.566 SOS
2. Wash U - 0.800 - 0.565
3. Benedictine - 0.857 - 0.493
4. SNC - 0.857 - 0.536
5. Eau Claire - 0.714 - 0.580
6. NCC - 0.810 - 0.523
7. Augustana - 0.727 - 0.578
8. Elmhurst - 0.818 - 0.526

----------------------------------

La Crosse - 0.762 - 0.530
Oshkosh - 0.619 - 0.618
Stevens Point - 0.667 - 0.603
IWU - 0.667 - 0.557
Wheaton IL - 0.619 - 0.546

How far will the committee drop Benedictine after their loss yesterday @ MSOE?  The .493 SOS, going into yesterday's games, looks like a sore spot compared to the rest of the Central. They do hold wins vs St Norbert and @ N Central and a 3-0 RvRRO's but the loss compounded with the low SOS could see them dropping the whole way down to 7, 8 or even off the rankings depending how the weekend shakes out.

Oshkosh still very much alive for Pool C with win last night vs Stevens Point.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The first Regional Rankings of the season are out and there are plenty of reactions ... and questions.

On Thursday's Hoopsville, we chat with a few programs who are in those rankings and others who know the best way into the NCAA tournaments is to win their conference. Plus, we find out how a fast break is a solid investment in giving back. And do you really understand the Strength of Schedule math and what is does, and does not, tell the ranking committees?

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Thursday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
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- Show page: http://bit.ly/2OQhWxt (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/feb13)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel

Thursday's show primarily covers the East, Great Lakes, Mid-Atlantic, and West Regions while also featuring a women's coach in the WBCA Center Court segment. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Steve Lamie, Grove City men's coach
- Lucia Robinson-Griggs, Vassar women's coach
- Tonja Englund, UW-Eau Claire women's coach (WBCA Center Court)
- Justin Heinzen, No. 10 Loras women's coach
- Matt Snyder, SOS guru

Please also consider helping us out. We are accepting donations to the show - which many of you have asked about. We have an initial goal to hit $5,000 by Feb. 16. We are currently at $2,330.20.

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We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

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[ronk]

There will be some interesting decisions made with high win/loss % and low SOS numbers this year. Witt/Yeshiva/St John's/both GNAC teams (St Joes CN/Magnus) all could present interesting problems for the committee!

Many of you know I've taken issue with the way the NCAA calculates the SOS and implements the home/away multiplier. This could affect the Pool C race quite a bit.

Yeshiva currently sits at a .933 WP. I have their NCAA SOS at .472. A correct SOS implementation would give them a .525 SOS. THIS IS BONKERS.
St. John's is somewhat similar: .944 WP. They have a .483 NCAA SOS but would have a .506 SOS if the number were crunched correctly.

Whitworth (.765 WP), for example, is just the opposite. The NCAA would give them a .550 SOS while .476 would be more correct.
Drew is also in this camp. .824 WP, .532 NCAA SOS -> .460 proper SOS.

Numbers should be current through Sunday.

As a recap of the issue: this is because the NCAA sums each team's opponents wins and losses and applies the multiplier to both columns (to come up with OWP and OOWP) rather than averaging the percentages of each component. I wrote more detail seven(!) years ago here: https://t.co/2MjI8dyGhK

(Yeshiva has played 12 road games and 4 home games this season. If they had played the same 16 teams, but all at home, the NCAA calculation would improve their SOS slightly from .472 to .477.)

Given that the NCAA hasn't change their calculation to yours in the past 7 years, and, likely that this will continue to be the situation, how should a school schedule in the future to benefit(game) this miscalculation?

Never play a really bad team on the road -- playing them at home doesn't hurt your SOS as much.

WRT to your interview on Hoopsville last night and this chat from a few days ago, it seems that the problem isn't that the SOS # is incorrect as calculated, but that the algorithm the NCAA now uses with the HAM(sums each team's opponents wins and losses and applies the multiplier to both columns (to come up with OWP and OOWP) rather than averaging the percentages of each component) doesn't achieve the purpose intended for home/away games as well as your recommendation would.
  I think it's important enough that the national RAC chairman should get a response from the NCAA justifying why their algorithm is preferable to yours; if it's not mathematically rigorous(e.g., somebody thought it was a good idea at the time), it should be easy enough to change before the next regional rankings. The NCAA should be responsive to their clients.
  Thanks for your work in this area!

[D3RetiredHooper]

This does not have to do with Pool C but not sure where else to ask this... what system does the NCAA use to figure out the 500 miles rule for traveling purposes?  Google Maps??

[Pat Coleman]

They have their own proprietary mileage charts.

[KnightSlappy]

They have their own proprietary mileage charts.

I believe this has the data they use.
https://web1.ncaa.org/TES/exec/miles

[thebear]

Yes the NCAA uses an app, originally designed for buses and trucks, I believe.

They are pretty close, but not exact.

For Example the NCAA says its 129 miles from SUNY Potsdam to SUNY Oswego,

Google Maps lets you pick the exact buildings, and they say 130 miles.

Potsdam to Fredonia they both say 327 miles

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Yes the NCAA uses an app, originally designed for buses and trucks, I believe.

They are pretty close, but not exact.

For Example the NCAA says its 129 miles from SUNY Potsdam to SUNY Oswego,

Google Maps lets you pick the exact buildings, and they say 130 miles.

Potsdam to Fredonia they both say 327 miles

And as many of us will chuckle when saying ... if you reverse the direction the teams are going (i.e. flip the top one for the bottom one) you can get different mileages.

[thebear]

I used to be a CFO for a consumer products company, different mileages not surprising, the routes may differ because of speed limits, one way roads etc.  Also some of the routes the NCAA pays mileage for may not be routes your bus operator is permitted for or wants to take.

[Greek Tragedy]

Last week's results

Here's the central

1. Platteville - 0.842 W% - 0.566 SOS - WON at Whitewater, WON v River Falls
2. Wash U - 0.800 - 0.565 - WON v CWR, WON v CMU
3. Benedictine - 0.857 - 0.493 - LOST at MSOE, WONat Lakeland
4. SNC - 0.857 - 0.536 - WON v Beloit, WON at Grinnell
5. Eau Claire - 0.714 - 0.580 - WONv River Falls, WON at Whitewater
6. NCC - 0.810 - 0.523 - WON at Augustana, WON at Carroll
7. Augustana - 0.727 - 0.578 - LOST v NCC, WON v Carthage
8. Elmhurst - 0.818 - 0.526 - LOST at IWU, WON v Millikin

----------------------------------

La Crosse - 0.762 - 0.530 - WON v Stout, WON at Stevens Point
Oshkosh - 0.619 - 0.618 - WON at Stevens Point, WON v Stout
Stevens Point - 0.667 - 0.603 - LOST v Oshkosh, LOST v La Crosse
IWU - 0.667 - 0.557 - WON v Elmhurst, LOST at Wheaton
Wheaton IL - 0.619 - 0.546 - LOST at Carroll, WON v IWU


I wonder if La Crosse and Oshkosh will jump Augustana and Elmhurst. Stevens Point had a great chance to jump into the rankings with two home games against other Pool C contenders and they lost both.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

In two weeks, the regular season will be over. If teams want to still be playing in March, the time to get it done is now ... including conference tournaments, some of which start for some this week.

This week will also bring with it a better understanding of which teams are in position to be playing in the NCAA Tournaments.

Monday on Hoopsville, we will chat with several programs which have positioned themselves atop their conference races and hope home court will help them punch tickets to the NCAA tournaments. However, they also know the difference between playing at home or in the NCAAs could be a single game still to be played.

Guests Schedule (order subject to change):
- Charlie Averkamp, Benedictine women's coach
- Trent Milby, Berea women's coach
- Jake Ross, Springfield senior guard
- Dean Burrows, Wesley men's coach
- Bob Quillman & Ryan Scott, Top 25 Double-Take

Hoopsville is presented by D3hoops.com and airs from the WBCA/NABC Studio. You can watch Monday's show LIVE starting at 7:00 pm ET in the following ways:
- Main page: www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville
- Show page: http://bit.ly/3bQmnlR (or www.d3hoops.com/hoopsville/archives/2019-20/feb17)
- Facebook Live Simulcast: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
- YouTube Simulcast: www.youtube.com/d3hoopsville
- Team1 Sports: www.team1sports.com/Hoopsville/
- Team1 Sports app (Android TV, Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku) - you will either find it under the "live" section or search for the Hoopsville channel
Monday's show primarily covers the Atlantic, Central, South, and Northeast Regions. All men's coaches appear in the NABC Coach's Corner. And all guests are featured on the BlueFrame Technology Hoopsville Hotline.

If you have questions about Division III basketball, feel free to send them and we will answer them on a the show. Email them to hoopsville@d3sports.com or use any of the social media options to the right.

Please also consider helping us out. We are accepting donations to the show - which many of you have asked about. We have an initial goal to hit $5,000 by the end of the show TONIGHT. We are currently at $2,659.32.

We will be raising the goal after tonight!

To donate, click our PayPal link here: https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=BSRFLPUJQ9MKL&source=url

And thank you for your contributions.

If you enjoy the show via the podcasts, choose your favorite avenue to listen and/or subscribe via the the following four avenues (click on the images when necessary):
SoundCloud: www.soundcloud.com/hoopsville


 
   
We also have the podcast now on Tune-In and others coming. We will update them once we have better abilities to do so.

Don't forget you can always interact with us:
Website: www.d3hoopsville.com
Twitter: @d3hoopsville or #Hoopsville
Facebook: www.facebook.com/Hoopsville
Email: hoopsville@d3hoops.com
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[AO]

WRT to your interview on Hoopsville last night and this chat from a few days ago, it seems that the problem isn't that the SOS # is incorrect as calculated, but that the algorithm the NCAA now uses with the HAM(sums each team's opponents wins and losses and applies the multiplier to both columns (to come up with OWP and OOWP) rather than averaging the percentages of each component) doesn't achieve the purpose intended for home/away games as well as your recommendation would.
  I think it's important enough that the national RAC chairman should get a response from the NCAA justifying why their algorithm is preferable to yours; if it's not mathematically rigorous(e.g., somebody thought it was a good idea at the time), it should be easy enough to change before the next regional rankings. The NCAA should be responsive to their clients.
  Thanks for your work in this area!

I don't know what the official stats guys said but at the time I believe we thought they were summing everything to avoid giving equal credit to games against teams with fewer D3 games on the schedule.  They were worried a 10-0 team would look as good as a 24-0 team.