Pool C

[ronk]

I think it's pretty crazy how much 4 games can impact SOS numbers. Look at UST and SJU, they played the same conf schedule and even both played NWU on a neutral court. UST ends up having a SOS around .550 and SJU is currently at or below .500. Which may not seem like a lot, but ends up being a huge difference when talking about Pool C selections and deciding between similar resumes.

Furthermore, SJU even played a 20 win Linfield in one of the remaining 4 different non-conf games. In terms of making the tourney I don't think it will matter for SJU, but a couple of more losses and they would have been in trouble. A future game(loss) against UST would definitely help the resume as well.

Without doing the math one would not have expected 3 nonconference games could have made such a big difference(.05) in SOS between UST and SJU in a 25 game schedule.

[sac]

St. John's
Marian is 4-21
Willamette 1-24
Minn-Morris 8-17
=13-62

St. Thomas
Whitman  18-7
Whitworth  20-5
St. Scholastica 13-12
= 51-24

There is a wide gap is quality here. 

[KnightSlappy]

3 games is 12% of the 25-game schedule. The quality of teams differs by about .500 in the OWP.
0.500 x .12 = .060 , so the OWP portion of the math looks reasonable if I'm thinking about it correctly.

[Smitty Oom]

Yeah it is pretty polarizing records for the remaining three games, but if we are being fair and not including Linfield for SJU, we should eliminate Whitworth from UST (also 20-5) and include DePauw (14-11) instead. Still, SJU needs to schedule better/ran a little unlucky to have those teams have such a terrible record this year.

[Titan Q]

As I see it, here are the top "bubble burster" candidates (Pool A teams that would steal Pool C with a conference tourney loss)...


Tier 1 Bubble Burster Teams (a conference tourney loss means a Pool C bid disappears)
* UW-Platteville (C/WIAC) - UW-Oshkosh and UW-La Crosse are bubble teams currently.

* Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC) - Loras and Buena Vista are bubble teams currently.

* St. Norbert (C/MWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MWC.

* North Central (C/CCIW) - Pool C swap if Elmhurst wins the CCIW; otherwise a bubble burster.

* Brockport (E/SUNYAC) - other SUNYAC Pool C candidates are on the end of the bubble currently.

* Randolph Macon (S/ODAC) - Virginia Wesleyan is on the Pool C bubble; Guilford is not regionally ranked currently.

* Stevens (AT/MACF) - no other competitive Pool candidates in the MACF currently.

* Wittenberg (GL/NCAC) - Wooster is on the bubble; no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NCAC.


Tier 2 Bubble Burster (a conference tourney loss sends these teams to the bubble; not Pool C locks)
* St. Joseph CT (NE/GNAC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the GNAC.

* Albion (GL/MIAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MIAA.

* Benedictine (C/NACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NACC.

* Yeshiva (AT/Skyline) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the Skyline currently.

* Center (S/SAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the SAA.

* Whitworth (W/NWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NWC.

* Drew (MA/LAND) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the LAND.

* Widener (MA/MACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MACC.


Not Considered Bubble Bursters At This Point (these are potential Pool A/C swaps)
*St. Thomas (W/MIAC) - Pool C swap if St. John's win the MIAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Mount Union (GL/OAC) - Pool C swap if Marietta wins the OAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Swarthmore (MA/CC) - Pool C swap if Johns Hopkins wins the CC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Tufts (NE/NESCAC) - Middlebury assumed Pool C lock; Pool C swap if Colby wins; potential swap if Amerst wins; bubble burster if Trinity.

* Christopher Newport (MA/CAC) - Pool C swap if York wins the CAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC) - Pool C swap if Babson or WPI win the NEWMAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Texas-Dallas (S/ASC) - Pool C swap if LeTourneau wins the ASC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* RPI (E/LL) - Pool C swap if Hobart wins the LL; bubble burster if anyone else.

[BaboNation]

As I see it, here are the top "bubble burster" candidates (Pool A teams that would steal Pool C with a conference tourney loss)...


Tier 1 Bubble Burster Teams (a conference tourney loss means a Pool C bid disappears)
* UW-Platteville (C/WIAC) - UW-Oshkosh and UW-La Crosse are bubble teams currently.

* Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC) - Loras and Buena Vista are bubble teams currently.

* St. Norbert (C/MWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MWC.

* North Central (C/CCIW) - Pool C swap if Elmhurst wins the CCIW; otherwise a bubble burster.

* Brockport (E/SUNYAC) - other SUNYAC Pool C candidates are on the end of the bubble currently.

* Randolph Macon (S/ODAC) - Virginia Wesleyan is on the Pool C bubble; Guilford is not regionally ranked currently.

* Stevens (AT/MACF) - no other competitive Pool candidates in the MACF currently.

* Wittenberg (GL/NCAC) - Wooster is on the bubble; no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NCAC.


Tier 2 Bubble Burster (a conference tourney loss sends these teams to the bubble; not Pool C locks)
* St. Joseph CT (NE/GNAC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the GNAC.

* Albion (GL/MIAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MIAA.

* Benedictine (C/NACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NACC.

* Yeshiva (AT/Skyline) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the Skyline currently.

* Center (S/SAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the SAA.

* Whitworth (W/NWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NWC.

* Drew (MA/LAND) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the LAND.

* Widener (MA/MACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MACC.


Not Considered Bubble Bursters At This Point (these are potential Pool A/C swaps)
*St. Thomas (W/MIAC) - Pool C swap if St. John's win the MIAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Mount Union (GL/OAC) - Pool C swap if Marietta wins the OAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Swarthmore (MA/CC) - Pool C swap if Johns Hopkins wins the CC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Tufts (NE/NESCAC) - Middlebury assumed Pool C lock; Pool C swap if Colby wins; potential swap if Amerst wins; bubble burster if Trinity.

* Christopher Newport (MA/CAC) - Pool C swap if York wins the CAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC) - Pool C swap if Babson or WPI win the NEWMAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Texas-Dallas (S/ASC) - Pool C swap if LeTourneau wins the ASC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* RPI (E/LL) - Pool C swap if Hobart wins the LL; bubble burster if anyone else.

I appreciate all your work.  As a NEWMAC fan, am I correct to infer that you have both WPI and Babson in the tournament regardless of NEWMAC tourney results?  One team is guaranteed another win and the other a loss in the tourney, because they play each other next.

[Titan Q]

I appreciate all your work.  As a NEWMAC fan, am I correct to infer that you have both WPI and Babson in the tournament regardless of NEWMAC tourney results?  One team is guaranteed another win and the other a loss in the tourney, because they play each other next.

I had both safely in when I did my Pool C projection this past Wednesday - http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4232.msg1978643#msg1978643.

But I need to take another look at that this week, after the new rankings come out.  Obviously both have lost since then.  I'm not ready to say WPI and Babson are both locks yet.

[Titan Q]

Something I posted in early-January...

While I cannot confirm the order of selection, if my suggested order is correct (I generally think it is very close), here is the average for the last 4 in for the last 3 seasons (4 per year x 3 years = 12 total selections):

.713 WP/.556 SOS/4-3 vs RRO

And then here is a look at my last 4 rounds last week:

Round 17
AT - Purchase (Sky): .696/.513/1-2
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .783/.532/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .682/.596/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .696/.539/1-4
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .792/.531/1-4
NE - Brandeis (UAA): .682/.559/2-5
S - East TX Baptist (ASC): .783/.515/1-3
W - Loras (ARC): .739/.530/1-2

Round 18
AT - Purchase (Sky): .696/.513/1-2
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .783/.532/1-4
E - SUNY Oneonta (SUNYAC): .773/.508/3-3
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .696/.539/1-4
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .792/.531/1-4
NE - Brandeis (UAA): .682/.559/2-5
S - East TX Baptist (ASC): .783/.515/1-3
W - Loras (ARC): .739/.530/1-2

Round 19
AT - Purchase (Sky): .696/.513/1-2
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .783/.532/1-4
E - SUNY Potsdam (SUNYAC): .818/.506/2-4
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .696/.539/1-4
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .792/.531/1-4
NE - Brandeis (UAA): .682/.559/2-5
S - East TX Baptist (ASC): .783/.515/1-3
W - Loras (ARC): .739/.530/1-2

Round 20
AT - Purchase (Sky): .696/.513/1-2
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .783/.532/1-4
E - SUNY Potsdam (SUNYAC): .818/.506/2-4
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .696/.539/1-4
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .792/.531/1-4
NE - Albertus Magnus (GNAC): .818/.488/2-2
S - East TX Baptist (ASC): .783/.515/1-3
W - Loras (ARC): .739/.530/1-2

If we add a loss for every 2020 Pool C candidate above (all have to lose to be Pool C), it seems to me the bubble is much softer than usual. 

[KnightSlappy]

I really enjoyed the Hoopsville segment last night with Bob and Ryan talking Pool C. Sounds like you will have a good time picking teams in the mock selections next week.

One interesting comparison that was made was St. Joseph (Conn.) vs. St. John's.

Team                 Conf   WP      SOS     NCSOS   D3     vRRO
St. Joseph (Conn.)   GNAC   0.913   0.502   0.495   21-2   1-1
St. Johns            MIAC   0.920   0.498   0.513   23-2   3-2

The comparison is certainly apt given the WP and SOS ranges they're both in (nearly identical!). St. Joseph's problem -- if they're both Pool C -- is that they appear to be decidedly behind St. Johns given the NCSOS and the vRROs. Their win is vs. NE#11 Albertus Magnus. St. John's has a win over WE#1 St. Thomas in addition to wins over regionally ranked Augsburg. So, St. Joseph would probably be sitting waiting for St. John's to get in while hoping there's enough time for themselves to get in afterward.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Although, if they're at the table at the same time, things have gone very wrong for St. John's.

[AO]

I really enjoyed the Hoopsville segment last night with Bob and Ryan talking Pool C. Sounds like you will have a good time picking teams in the mock selections next week.

One interesting comparison that was made was St. Joseph (Conn.) vs. St. John's.

Team                 Conf   WP      SOS     NCSOS   D3     vRRO
St. Joseph (Conn.)   GNAC   0.913   0.502   0.495   21-2   1-1
St. Johns            MIAC   0.920   0.498   0.513   23-2   3-2

The comparison is certainly apt given the WP and SOS ranges they're both in (nearly identical!). St. Joseph's problem -- if they're both Pool C -- is that they appear to be decidedly behind St. Johns given the NCSOS and the vRROs. Their win is vs. NE#11 Albertus Magnus. St. John's has a win over WE#1 St. Thomas in addition to wins over regionally ranked Augsburg. So, St. Joseph would probably be sitting waiting for St. John's to get in while hoping there's enough time for themselves to get in afterward.

SoS according to Massey
St. John's: 95th
St. Joseph: 248th

[Smitty Oom]

I really enjoyed the Hoopsville segment last night with Bob and Ryan talking Pool C. Sounds like you will have a good time picking teams in the mock selections next week.

One interesting comparison that was made was St. Joseph (Conn.) vs. St. John's.

Team                 Conf   WP      SOS     NCSOS   D3     vRRO
St. Joseph (Conn.)   GNAC   0.913   0.502   0.495   21-2   1-1
St. Johns            MIAC   0.920   0.498   0.513   23-2   3-2

The comparison is certainly apt given the WP and SOS ranges they're both in (nearly identical!). St. Joseph's problem -- if they're both Pool C -- is that they appear to be decidedly behind St. Johns given the NCSOS and the vRROs. Their win is vs. NE#11 Albertus Magnus. St. John's has a win over WE#1 St. Thomas in addition to wins over regionally ranked Augsburg. So, St. Joseph would probably be sitting waiting for St. John's to get in while hoping there's enough time for themselves to get in afterward.

SoS according to Massey
St. John's: 95th
St. Joseph: 248th

Johnnies should have manned up and played Morris and Willamette at home!!

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

The Week 3 men's regional rankings are out: https://www.d3hoops.com/notables/2020/02/men-regional-rankings-third

[PauldingLightUP]

Data sheets are not updated.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Data sheets are not updated.

They were for a hot minute (as described to me) and now have reverted. We have alerted the NCAA folk. Unfortunately, they aren't in direct control as those in Atlanta at Turner do all the website work. So we will have to see how long it takes to fix.