Pool C

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 09:52:51 AM

Quote from: Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan) on February 28, 2020, 09:40:57 AM

It seems the WIAC is a near lock for three teams with a decent shot at four. That's nuts.

Yes, Platteville and Oshkosh are locks.

LaCrosse seems very safe on front end of the bubble.

Eau Claire has a really good chance at the end of the bubble (at the mercy of upsets, etc).

At this very moment my money would be on 4 WIAC teams getting in.

D3RetiredHooper · February 28, 2020, 10:10:00 AM

La Crosse has a 21-6 (.778), .541 SOS (.484 NCSOS) and maybe 2 wins vs RRO's (2-5 R v RRO's overall) resume with both wins, in your rankings, vs the 8th place team in the central region. That resume is on the front end of the bubble?

Sam said last night they do not use an RPI, which should hurt the central region and help other regions. They evaluate your results vs RRO's and look at where those opponents fall in their respective regions.

I see La Crosse as a mid to late, possibly bubble-out (depending how the weekend tournaments go), bubble team which means the central teams with potentially better national resumes may get to the table late.

Greek Tragedy · February 28, 2020, 11:00:11 AM

I guess I'm in the minority and I'm a WIAC guy. I just don't see the WIAC getting four teams in. I hope I'm wrong.

KnightSlappy · February 28, 2020, 11:03:21 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
I guess I'm in the minority and I'm a WIAC guy. I just don't see the WIAC getting four teams in. I hope I'm wrong.

I think LaCrosse is out but I think the other three are looking pretty safe now.

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 11:09:53 AM

Quote from: D3RetiredHooper on February 28, 2020, 10:10:00 AM
La Crosse has a 21-6 (.778), .541 SOS (.484 NCSOS) and maybe 2 wins vs RRO's (2-5 R v RRO's overall) resume with both wins, in your rankings, vs the 8th place team in the central region. That resume is on the front end of the bubble?

Sam said last night they do not use an RPI, which should hurt the central region and help other regions. They evaluate your results vs RRO's and look at where those opponents fall in their respective regions.

I see La Crosse as a mid to late, possibly bubble-out (depending how the weekend tournaments go), bubble team which means the central teams with potentially better national resumes may get to the table late.

Maybe just semantics here - "front end bubble", "mid to late", etc.

If La Crosse picks up 2 wins vs RRO (via Eau Claire getting ranked), and now has 3, I would see them higher than I had them here, from Tuesday. Maybe about #14 or #15. For me that is "front end of the bubble."

Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2020, 11:32:51 PM
Round 12
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .680/.598/3-5
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wooster (NCAC): .720/.560/4-3
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 13
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .680/.598/3-5
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 14
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 15
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 16
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 17
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 18
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - Augustana (CCIW): .720/.570/2-6
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 19
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Eau Claire: .680/.580/2-7
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 20
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Eau Claire: .680/.580/2-7
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Loras (ARC): .680/.539/1-3

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 11:11:08 AM

Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 28, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
I guess I'm in the minority and I'm a WIAC guy. I just don't see the WIAC getting four teams in. I hope I'm wrong.

I think LaCrosse is out but I think the other three are looking pretty safe now.

I think La Crosse will be regionally ranked ahead of Eau Claire though. Do you think Eau Claire will be higher? La Crosse is 2-0 head-to-head.

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 11:13:51 AM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
I guess I'm in the minority and I'm a WIAC guy. I just don't see the WIAC getting four teams in. I hope I'm wrong.

The odds are that that 4th WIAC team in the order (which I believe will be Eau Claire) would be in at like 18/19/20...but we all know there are always at least 3 major upsets. Usually 4-5.

So the 4th WIAC team is at the mercy of end of the bubble drama.

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 11:21:17 AM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 23, 2020, 10:44:45 PM
As I see it, here are the top "bubble burster" candidates (Pool A teams that would steal Pool C with a conference tourney loss)...

Tier 1 Bubble Burster Teams (a conference tourney loss means a Pool C bid disappears)
* UW-Platteville (C/WIAC) - UW-Oshkosh and UW-La Crosse are bubble teams currently.

* Nebraska Wesleyan (W/ARC) - Loras and Buena Vista are bubble teams currently.

* St. Norbert (C/MWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MWC.

* North Central (C/CCIW) - Pool C swap if Elmhurst wins the CCIW; otherwise a bubble burster.

* Brockport (E/SUNYAC) - other SUNYAC Pool C candidates are on the end of the bubble currently.

* Randolph Macon (S/ODAC) - Virginia Wesleyan is on the Pool C bubble; Guilford is not regionally ranked currently.

* Stevens (AT/MACF) - no other competitive Pool candidates in the MACF currently.

* Wittenberg (GL/NCAC) - Wooster is on the bubble; no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NCAC.

Tier 2 Bubble Burster (a conference tourney loss sends these teams to the bubble; not Pool C locks)
* St. Joseph CT (NE/GNAC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the GNAC.

* Albion (GL/MIAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MIAA.

* Benedictine (C/NACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NACC.

* Yeshiva (AT/Skyline) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the Skyline currently.

* Center (S/SAA) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the SAA.

* Whitworth (W/NWC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the NWC.

* Drew (MA/LAND) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the LAND.

* Widener (MA/MACC) - no other competitive Pool C candidates in the MACC.

Not Considered Bubble Bursters At This Point (these are potential Pool A/C swaps)
*St. Thomas (W/MIAC) - Pool C swap if St. John's win the MIAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Mount Union (GL/OAC) - Pool C swap if Marietta wins the OAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Swarthmore (MA/CC) - Pool C swap if Johns Hopkins wins the CC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Tufts (NE/NESCAC) - Middlebury assumed Pool C lock; Pool C swap if Colby wins; potential swap if Amerst wins; bubble burster if Trinity.

* Christopher Newport (MA/CAC) - Pool C swap if York wins the CAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Springfield (NE/NEWMAC) - Pool C swap if Babson or WPI win the NEWMAC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* Texas-Dallas (S/ASC) - Pool C swap if LeTourneau wins the ASC; bubble burster if anyone else.

* RPI (E/LL) - Pool C swap if Hobart wins the LL; bubble burster if anyone else.

Bumping this up.

I don't think the Platteville loss is a huge deal in the big picture unless Eau Claire wins the WIAC tourney. I feel like Oshkosh had played themselves into safe Pool C status (with a WIAC title appearance), so UWP and UWO would just be a swap.

But Eau Claire seems to be very much on the bubble. If Eau Claire wins Saturday, that is probably the best path to 4 WIAC teams in. Platteville is a Pool C lock, Oshkosh would be safe, and La Crosse would have a really good chance.

KnightSlappy · February 28, 2020, 11:37:22 AM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 28, 2020, 11:11:08 AM
Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 28, 2020, 11:03:21 AM
Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2020, 11:00:11 AM
I guess I'm in the minority and I'm a WIAC guy. I just don't see the WIAC getting four teams in. I hope I'm wrong.

I think LaCrosse is out but I think the other three are looking pretty safe now.

I think La Crosse will be regionally ranked ahead of Eau Claire though. Do you think Eau Claire will be higher? La Crosse is 2-0 head-to-head.

The RAC has shown this year that, at least in the central region, you don't think. You just put teams. I put Eau Claire ahead.

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 11:43:46 AM

Quote from: KnightSlappy on February 28, 2020, 11:37:22 AM
The RAC has shown this year that, at least in the central region, you don't think. You just put teams. I put Eau Claire ahead.

OK, fair.

If they think though, I believe La Crosse will be ahead of Eau Claire. I guess we'll see.

D3RetiredHooper · February 28, 2020, 11:48:23 AM

If anything the RAC in the central has shown a propensity to overrate, in a sense, head to head in the primary criteria. Using that reasoning, La Crosse has a good shot at finishing above both Augustana and Eau Claire if it's close enough in the committee's eyes.

Greek Tragedy · February 28, 2020, 12:09:41 PM

So you think NCC and Elmhurst and locks, so the CCIW is hoping for Augie or IWU to win the AQ to get three in. Sounds more realistic than the WIAC getting four!

Titan Q · February 28, 2020, 12:19:25 PM

Quote from: Greek Tragedy on February 28, 2020, 12:09:41 PM
So you think NCC and Elmhurst and locks, so the CCIW is hoping for Augie or IWU to win the AQ to get three in. Sounds more realistic than the WIAC getting four!

I do think Augie or IWU winning would lead to 3 CCIW teams in.

This CCIW fan hopes for more the IWU side of that than the Augie side.

ronk · February 28, 2020, 01:28:07 PM

Quote from: Titan Q on February 28, 2020, 11:09:53 AM
Quote from: D3RetiredHooper on February 28, 2020, 10:10:00 AM
La Crosse has a 21-6 (.778), .541 SOS (.484 NCSOS) and maybe 2 wins vs RRO's (2-5 R v RRO's overall) resume with both wins, in your rankings, vs the 8th place team in the central region. That resume is on the front end of the bubble?

Sam said last night they do not use an RPI, which should hurt the central region and help other regions. They evaluate your results vs RRO's and look at where those opponents fall in their respective regions.

I see La Crosse as a mid to late, possibly bubble-out (depending how the weekend tournaments go), bubble team which means the central teams with potentially better national resumes may get to the table late.

Maybe just semantics here - "front end bubble", "mid to late", etc.

If La Crosse picks up 2 wins vs RRO (via Eau Claire getting ranked), and now has 3, I would see them higher than I had them here, from Tuesday. Maybe about #14 or #15. For me that is "front end of the bubble."

Quote from: Titan Q on February 25, 2020, 11:32:51 PM
Round 12
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .680/.598/3-5
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wooster (NCAC): .720/.560/4-3
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 13
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Oshkosh (WIAC): .680/.598/3-5
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 14
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Amherst (NESCAC): .720/.543/3-2
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 15
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - York Pa. (CAC): .800/.528/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 16
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .833/.511/2-1
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 17
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-La Crosse (WIAC): .800/.536/1-4
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 18
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - Augustana (CCIW): .720/.570/2-6
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 19
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Eau Claire: .680/.580/2-7
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Whitworth (NWC): .800/.520/1-2

Round 20
AT - Eastern (MACF): .609/.561/4-5
C - UW-Eau Claire: .680/.580/2-7
E - Rochester (UAA): .667/.586/2-6
GL - Wabash (NCAC): .680/.545/1-5
MA - Muhlenberg (CC): .720/.522/1-4
NE - Trinity CT (NESCAC): .680/.547/3-4
S - Guilford (ODAC): .720/.550/2-4
W - Loras (ARC): .680/.539/1-3

Now that Drew lost in the Landmark semis, I would put them in the MA slot after York is selected - in place of Muhlenberg.

sac · February 28, 2020, 01:33:15 PM

Thing about Benedictine I don't like is all 3 of their RRO's came early and with an important starter who no longer plays for them.

Not considered but, they're not really the team they were in Nov. when they were doing really well for the most part. They're being judged and compared as the team they once were, not team they are now. I doubt they win all 3 of those RRO games with their current lineup. A small flaw in D3's selection process.