Pool C

[D3RetiredHooper]

Benedictine falling completely out of the rankings, especially falling behind St. Norbert and La Crosse, seems anti what the committee has been doing in every ranking this season.

Benedictine has head to head over St Norbert and both lost this week. Why is this the week that the committee changes direction in how they have been evaluating those two?  Benedictine has quality wins on their resume, including LeTourneau who just won the ASC and probably jump to 3rd in the South. La Crosse lacks quality wins which is a massive negative in their resume, along with their NCSOS.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Benedictine falling completely out of the rankings, especially falling behind St. Norbert and La Crosse, seems anti what the committee has been doing in every ranking this season.

Benedictine has head to head over St Norbert and both lost this week. Why is this the week that the committee changes direction in how they have been evaluating those two?  Benedictine has quality wins on their resume, including LeTourneau who just won the ASC and probably jump to 3rd in the South. La Crosse lacks quality wins which is a massive negative in their resume, along with their NCSOS.

The difference comes in if Eau Claire is ranked - that would drastically improve LaCrosse's resume with two additional regionally ranked wins.  We'll have to keep looking at it today, but BenU has not been doing themselves any favors.

[Titan Q]

Benedictine falling completely out of the rankings, especially falling behind St. Norbert and La Crosse, seems anti what the committee has been doing in every ranking this season.

Benedictine has head to head over St Norbert and both lost this week. Why is this the week that the committee changes direction in how they have been evaluating those two?  Benedictine has quality wins on their resume, including LeTourneau who just won the ASC and probably jump to 3rd in the South. La Crosse lacks quality wins which is a massive negative in their resume, along with their NCSOS.

As Dave McHugh reminds us, each week they wipe the slate clean and do new rankings.  I think this week when they evaluate the Central teams they'll land on BU in that #9 spot.

I have no way to confirm that obviously. As someone who spends a lot of time looking at the Pool C process, and how the teams compete nationally during the 20 round process, that is how I see things.  I think BU has the 7th best Pool C resume of the Central teams (one could easily argue 8th or 9th), and other other order would hurt the Central region's chances for selections.

We will all know soon enough now.

[Smitty Oom]

Last nights ending in NWC wasn't great for the bubble teams as Whitworth has a solid enough resume and will be at the table for 15+ rounds after UST is selected very early. Whitman had no chance at a Pool C nod, but secured Pool A. Results are reminiscent of years past, but no pod will be held in the Pacific Northwest this March

[Titan Q]

Through Saturday's games...

All possible due to Matt Snyder's great data - https://tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-regional-rankings.html.

*team has lost and is officially a Pool C candidate

Round 1
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-Platteville* (WIAC): .833/.568/6-0
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Swarthmore* (CC): .963/.570/10-1
NE - Springfield* (NEWMAC): .846/.578/4-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - St. Thomas* (MIAC): .889/.557/4-3

Round 2
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-Platteville* (WIAC): .833/.568/6-0
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport*(CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Springfield* (NEWMAC): .846/.578/4-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - St. Thomas* (MIAC): .889/.557/4-3

Round 3
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-Platteville* (WIAC): .833/.568/6-0
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Middlebury* (NESCAC): .800/.571/5-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - St. Thomas* (MIAC): .889/.557/4-3

Round 4
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Wash U* (UAA): .800/.557/4-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Middlebury* (NESCAC): .800/.571/5-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - St. Thomas* (MIAC): .889/.557/4-3

Round 5
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Wash U* (UAA): .800/.557/4-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Colby (NESCAC): .923/.532/4-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - St. Thomas* (MIAC): .889/.557/4-3

Round 6
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Wash U* (UAA): .800/.557/4-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Colby (NESCAC): .923/.532/4-2
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 7
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Wash U* (UAA): .800/.557/4-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 8
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - North Central* (CCIW): .808/.546/2-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Wittenberg* (NCAC): .929/.513/4-2
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 9
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - North Central* (CCIW): .808/.546/2-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Christopher Newport* (CAC): .778/.544/4-5
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 10
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - North Central* (CCIW): .808/.546/2-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Texas-Dallas* (ASC): .778/.549/3-3
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 11
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - North Central* (CCIW): .808/.546/2-3
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 12
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - St. Norbert (MWC): .852/.535/2-2
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 13
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-La Crosse* (WIAC): .778/.541/2-5
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Babson* (NEWMAC): .769/.534/3-4
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 14
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-La Crosse* (WIAC): .778/.541/2-5
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Marietta* (OAC): .778/.529/3-4
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 15
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-La Crosse* (WIAC): .778/.541/2-5
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 16
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - UW-Eau Claire (WIAC): .704/.588/3-7
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 17
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Benedictine* (NACC): .769/.508/3-0
E - Hobart* (LL): .808/.519/3-4
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 18
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Benedictine* (NACC): .769/.508/3-0
E - SUNY Potsdam* (SUNYAC): .769/.525/4-5
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 19
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Benedictine* (NACC): .769/.508/3-0
E - Oswego State* (SUNYAC): .704/.543/4-7
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

Round 20
AT - Eastern* (MACF): .560/.573/5-6
C - Benedictine* (NACC): .769/.508/3-0
E - SUNY Oneonta* (SUNYAC): .704/.526/3-5
GL - Albion* (MIAA): .808/.530/0-2
MA - Drew* (Land): .769/.531/1-1
NE - Amherst* (NESCAC): .692/.553/3-3
S - Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC): .846/.517/2-1
W - Whitworth* (NWC): .808/.527/1-2

[Smitty Oom]

Did not really think we were going to see 2 SUNYAC teams in your Pool C run. Not that I disagree with the picks. Would be fun to see a storied program like Potsdam return to the tournament.

[Titan Q]

My biggest takeaway when I did the above projection is that when I slid Rochester way down the East ranking (because they now have a .640 WP) - below Hobart, Potsdam, Oswego, Oneonta - it led to a crazy East region run late in the process.  See rounds 17-19. In my projections up to this point, Rochester was blocking all of these teams.

Do I think it "feels" right to have an East region run? Not really.  Do I think it will actually play out that way? Probably not.  But based on the numbers, those choices seemed like the right ones to me.  Like, I couldn't find a way to not make those picks.  It is possible the East region committee ranks Rochester after Hobart, or after Hobart and Potsdam - that would create a blocker for the East region run.  But if the East RAC is doing the right thing for the region, they will move Rochester below all of these other teams I have on the board.  .640 just is not competitive in the process.

I picked Amherst #20 due to wins over Springfield, Middlebury, and Colby.  But I went round and round on the pick #20 - there is absolutely no easy choice there.

Regarding Benedictine, I put them #9 in the Central only because they were so high before (#3).  But I do not see BU's resume as being all that competitive.  And if the Central puts BU any higher than 9, I believe they will block other teams that have a chance.  Illinois Wesleyan and Augustana would compete better than Benedictine in rounds 17 to 20 as I see it.

[Titan Q]

Obviously to do the projection accurately, you need the final regional rankings.  So many things hinge on how the teams are lined up. 

[Titan Q]

The depth of talent in the Central region - with the WIAC, CCIW, Wash U, BU, and St. Norbert - really hurts.  Some really good, regionally ranked-caliber teams cannot be ranked...and that hurts them and the teams they have played.

For example, Augustana's resume is better than teams at the bottom of every other region -- yet they are not ranked in the Central.  That takes 2-1 vs RRO away from Illinois Wesleyan.  Add that 2-1 to IWU and the Titans might get selected.  (Augie being ranked would add a win to Oshkosh and La Crosse too.)

Or do it in reverse.  If Illinois Wesleyan was ranked, add 1-2 to Augie.  That 1-2 would make a huge difference.  (And add wins to Wash U, Elmhurst, NCC.). IWU would be probably be ranked in every other region.

Really a huge factor.

[D3RetiredHooper]

Pool C and the last few bubble teams could ultimately come down to the final Central Regional Rankings.

It depends if the committee wants to do what is best to get the most teams into the tournament from the central region or continue to use the process they have been using the past 3 rankings. 

The two major dilemmas are St Norbert to Benedictine and Eau Claire to La Crosse.

St Norbert and Eau Claire both have much stronger resumes from a national perspective, but they both lose the head to head criteria to opponents with much weaker national resumes.  The committee has been consistent in keeping Benedictine above St Norbert due to H2H plus the other 2 quality wins Benedictine has on their resume. La Crosse has stayed in the regional rankings due to their wins over Eau Claire (2) and Augustana.

La Crosse swept Eau Claire in the WIAC play but with Eau Claire's win over Platteville, is that enough to move Eau Claire over La Crosse in the final regional rankings.

Snyder's RPI, which is an inexact science for D3 and not used by the committees, has Eau-Claire 4 and La Crosse 9 in the central region and St Norbert 5 and Benedictine 13!.

[thebear]

Obviously to do the projection accurately, you need the final regional rankings.  So many things hinge on how the teams are lined up.

Ithaca has made the finals of the LL, wondering at 22-5 if they will jump into the Pool C mix, although if they lose to RPI, they will only be 2-4 against the likely RRO's. 

I suspect Oswego and Oneonta will drop out of the top 8 in the region, replaced by Fisher and Ithaca.

Remember U of R's coach is on the Regional Committee.

[sac]

Just to get this out there annually.

RRO's are dumb.

carry on.

[Smitty Oom]

Just to get this out there annually.

RRO's are dumb.

carry on.

I have been thinking about Pool C more this year and feel like I know quite a bit more about the process, criteria, etc than when I started in 2017, and I could not agree more with your assessment.

[ronk]

The depth of talent in the Central region - with the WIAC, CCIW, Wash U, BU, and St. Norbert - really hurts.  Some really good, regionally ranked-caliber teams cannot be ranked...and that hurts them and the teams they have played.

For example, Augustana's resume is better than teams at the bottom of every other region -- yet they are not ranked in the Central.  That takes 2-1 vs RRO away from Illinois Wesleyan.  Add that 2-1 to IWU and the Titans might get selected.  (Augie being ranked would add a win to Oshkosh and La Crosse too.)

Or do it in reverse.  If Illinois Wesleyan was ranked, add 1-2 to Augie.  That 1-2 would make a huge difference.  (And add wins to Wash U, Elmhurst, NCC.). IWU would be probably be ranked in every other region.

Really a huge factor.

We've been told that the final regional rankings extend beyond the disclosed limit(e.g., in the Central region - 8) so that there will be additional candidates to come to the table after their ranked Pool C candidates have already been selected(as can be the case with the Central region); what hasn't been mentioned is if the vrro data is limited to the 8 spots in such a region(primary criteria) or whether the committee extends that to their expanded regional list. This would affect such a regional ranking.

[lmitzel]

The depth of talent in the Central region - with the WIAC, CCIW, Wash U, BU, and St. Norbert - really hurts.  Some really good, regionally ranked-caliber teams cannot be ranked...and that hurts them and the teams they have played.

For example, Augustana's resume is better than teams at the bottom of every other region -- yet they are not ranked in the Central.  That takes 2-1 vs RRO away from Illinois Wesleyan.  Add that 2-1 to IWU and the Titans might get selected.  (Augie being ranked would add a win to Oshkosh and La Crosse too.)

Or do it in reverse.  If Illinois Wesleyan was ranked, add 1-2 to Augie.  That 1-2 would make a huge difference.  (And add wins to Wash U, Elmhurst, NCC.). IWU would be probably be ranked in every other region.

Really a huge factor.

We've been told that the final regional rankings extend beyond the disclosed limit(e.g., in the Central region - 8) so that there will be additional candidates to come to the table after their ranked Pool C candidates have already been selected(as can be the case with the Central region); what hasn't been mentioned is if the vrro data is limited to the 8 spots in such a region(primary criteria) or whether the committee extends that to their expanded regional list. This would affect such a regional ranking.

I assume they'd limit it; otherwise you give the Central an unfair advantage with additional vRRO results compared to everyone else. The counter argument would come in the Northeast region and their 11 spots, but since that's their allotment based on numbers I don't think it holds water.