Pool C

sac · February 16, 2006, 04:34:44 PM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 15, 2006, 06:35:44 PM
Quote from: Old School on February 15, 2006, 06:20:30 PM
Updated Feb. 15, 2006

Great Lakes
1 Wooster 18-1 22-1 (Leads NCAC)
2 Baldwin-Wallace 19-2 21-2 (Leads OAC)
3 Wittenberg 16-2 21-2 (NCAC)
4 Carnegie Mellon 14-3 18-4 (Leads UAA)
5 Calvin 9-1 18-5 (Leads MIAA)
5 Hope 14-2 21-2 (MIAA)

I count 23 Pool C good Candidates! The last team in respective regions are definitely "bubble" teams!

If Hope is a bubble team, then the criteria is even more F'd up than Coach C thinks.

Ralph Turner · February 16, 2006, 04:42:21 PM

Quote from: sac on February 16, 2006, 04:34:44 PM
Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 15, 2006, 06:35:44 PM
Quote from: Old School on February 15, 2006, 06:20:30 PM
Updated Feb. 15, 2006

Great Lakes
1 Wooster 18-1 22-1 (Leads NCAC)
2 Baldwin-Wallace 19-2 21-2 (Leads OAC)
3 Wittenberg 16-2 21-2 (NCAC)
4 Carnegie Mellon 14-3 18-4 (Leads UAA)
5 Calvin 9-1 18-5 (Leads MIAA)
5 Hope 14-2 21-2 (MIAA)

I count 23 Pool C good Candidates! The last team in respective regions are definitely "bubble" teams!

If Hope is a bubble team, then the criteria is even more F'd up than Coach C thinks.

Good point! Hope is probably the "exception to the rule", especially considering that all of their primary criteria are so good!

Greek Tragedy · February 16, 2006, 06:11:30 PM

Assumed Great Lakes "#7" Albion didn't do themselves any favors last night.

Ralph Turner · February 16, 2006, 06:33:48 PM

Quote from: Old School on February 16, 2006, 06:11:30 PM
Assumed Great Lakes "#7" Albion didn't do themselves any favors last night.

And one more loss in the MIAA Post-season tourney won't help either! $:-\$

smedindy · February 16, 2006, 07:00:42 PM

And if Albion doesn't get an at large it IS messed up. But that's life...

John Gleich · February 16, 2006, 07:43:47 PM

The way I understand the selection proccess, the top available teams from each region are pitted against each other. Wittenberg is a clear lock, and that slides Hope up to the top of the list for the Great Lake teams. I think they are a lock as well (I'm sure, for one, that their "resume" is better than any of the teams out West).

sac · February 16, 2006, 09:05:36 PM

I think you can pencil in Wooster/Wittenberg, Calvin/Hope and Carnegie Mellon as in the tournament. The loser of the conference tournaments in the NCAC and MIAA are in if its Woo/Witt and/or Hpe/Cal. Even an upset winner from those conferences would probably still pull all of these teams into the tournament. They all have strong resumes.

I posted my thoughts on Albion in the MIAA room........I think they have a shot, they MUST win Saturday, and make the MIAA semi's minimum, a finals appearance gets them in.. A win Sat. gives them a maximum of 6 losses and just 4 in-region losses for the season. There will be 5 in-region loss teams discussed. I'm not sure how Albion QOWI looks overall but last I checked it was in the 18 Pool C contenders range without upsets.

Depending on National upsets I believe the Britions will be put on the table for discussion. But they'll be one of the last to talk about.

The OAC tournament might be the key, a loss by BW and Albion would be the #4 Pool C candidate from the GL. BW's resume looks more than good enought to get a C. The national average for a region should be just over 2.

Of course the easiest thing for Albion to do is win the MIAA tournament which they are still capable of doing.

sac · February 16, 2006, 09:38:55 PM

I forgot to add the unranked Great Lakes C candidates are Albion 18-5 and Ohio Northern 18-5.

After last night (or possibly even before) the Polar Bears are probably the top unranked C team from the GL..

ONU's 5 L's are to quality teams BW, Witt, Wilmington twice, Muskingum

Albion's 5 L's are to UM-Dearborn, Calvin twice, Hope and Tri-State. The UMD and TSU losses hurt if they start looking at non D3 games. But they still only have 3 in-region L's to ONU's 5.

ONU signature wins BW and Muskingum

Albion signature wins BW, Elmhurst, Hope

Interesting to note ONU beat UM-Dearborn in Albion, MI the day after Albion lost to the same team.

These collective revelation means Albion is in bigger trouble than I thought. $:-\$

David Collinge · February 16, 2006, 10:44:28 PM

I think Albion has more company than just ONU. Wilmington, Lake Erie, and Bethany have similar resumes. Bethany ~~is probably weakest due to QoWI~~*, but they're probaby getting in via Pool B anyway, so they'd be off the table for Pool C. Of Wilma, ONU, Albion, and LEC, at this point I'd say Lake Erie has the strongest case. Their regional record (15-3, .833) is considerably better than Albion (10-3, .769), Wilma (17-6, .739), or ONU (14-5, .737), and they've got a potential 15-point QoWI win at Behrend this week. If Greensburg or Behrend is able to take them out in the AMCC finals, they'd be a pretty good looking C candidate, no worse than Albion and the OAC runner-up.

QoWI-wise, Albion is leading this group at 9.462, but LEC is a respectible 9.278. ONU is at 8.947, while Wilma brings up the rear at 8.875.

My take on the GL overall is that Wooster, Wittenberg, B-W, Hope, Calvin, and CMU are all in like Flynn, regardless of how many Pool C bids that takes (probably not more than 3). After that I'd rank the Pool C candidates as
1. Lake Erie (15-3, .833, 9.278)
2. Albion (10-3, .769, 9.462)
3. ONU (14-5, .737, 8.947)
4. Wilmington (17-6, .739, 8.875)

*EDIT: Actually, without bothering to calculate it, it looks like Bethany's QoWI would be in the low 9's, comparable to Lake Erie's. Bethany is at 17-4, .810 in the region, so if by some miracle they get overlooked in Pool B, they'd be right in there with LEC and Albion in the Pool C discussion. MORE trouble for Albion!

Greek Tragedy · February 16, 2006, 11:41:19 PM

With all this GL talk regarding teams not even ranked in the region, do you really think these teams will have a chance and move far enough up the ladder that they would be a factor ahead of all the other teams already ranked in all the the regions? I mean, we're looking at FIVE NESCAC teams in the 10-team ranked Northeast Regional just for starters.

Ralph Turner · February 16, 2006, 11:44:50 PM

I can imagine that we are going to see plenty of schools which have in-region winning percentages in the .750 range and 18 or 19 wins.

There will much wailing and gnashing of teeth, but we will have a great time showing how one less loss would have really eliminated any doubt.

The effect of 1 loss on the QOWI is 0.50 on 16 games; 0.40 on 20 games; 0.32 on 25 games.

Albion needs to find more in-region games. One benefit is that it dilutes the damage by a loss.

David Collinge · February 16, 2006, 11:54:18 PM

Quote from: Old School on February 16, 2006, 11:41:19 PM
With all this GL talk regarding teams not even ranked in the region, do you really think these teams will have a chance and move far enough up the ladder that they would be a factor ahead of all the other teams already ranked in all the the regions? I mean, we're looking at FIVE NESCAC teams in the 10-team ranked Northeast Regional just for starters.

Remember that the GL has just 6 ranked teams, and at present they are Wooster, B-W, Witt, CMU, Hope, and Calvin. From that august group there will most likely be 3 or 4 Pool A bids (one can never be sure of the OAC tourney.) Say for the sake of argument that somebody beats B-W in the OAC tourney, but that the NCAC and MIAA bids go to the home teams, Wooster and Calvin. The first team from the GL to sit at the Pool C table will probably be B-W, and they'll get picked mighty quickly. Then Hope, then Witt, and by then I'd wager that not more than 10 Pool C's would have been allocated. At that point all 6 ranked GL teams are gone, so someone has to take that empty seat at the table. We're just trying to figure out who that is: I think it's Lake Erie (if they fail to win the AMCC), and Sac thinks it's ONU (if they fail to win the OAC), and we both think that Albion is next in line.

Do I think Albion has a chance as a potential 5th Pool C from the GL region? Yes, a chance. I think they'd be right on the bubble. If Lake Erie is ousted in the AMCC tourney, and is ahead of Albion in the Pool C cafeteria line, I think the cafeteria lady may be out of Salisbury Steak by the time Albion gets there (how's that for a metaphor?

), but I don't think it's far-fetched to think that the best unranked GL team that is not snatched up by Pools A or B is a legitimate end-of-the-conga-line Pool C candidate.

Ralph Turner · February 16, 2006, 11:56:56 PM

We highlighted the Top 18 by QOWI and by winning percentage. (Sac's reply #213 on this board.)

Everyone of those teams desiganted had assumed no upsets in the conference tourneys. If we are looking at 14 conferences that had post-season tourneys and Pool C candidates that Old School highlighted in his reply #213, we are likely to see at least 5 upsets that knock those designated Pool A's into Pool C.

The SCIAC is a mess, does not have a tourney and is a geographic mess. Does a Texas team get flown to Southern California if Oxy and CMS get in and a bye is used? Mississippi College is the favorite in the ASC and could be "bussed" or "bussed to" from the east! We might even see a playoff game in Texas.

Then UAA has no post-season tourney to inflict another loss. What about them in Pool C?

Matt Letourneau · February 16, 2006, 11:59:49 PM

Messiah and Hopkins losing is good news for Catholic, who won at Salisbury...

sac · February 17, 2006, 12:02:21 AM

4 Pool C's from the Great Lakes I think would be the maximum, 3 is more realistic.

In my head I can see 5 qualified teams but thats just not the way the NCAA selection works out.

Just think we haven't even brought in the Midwest or West Regions into this discussion

It absolutely boggles my mind the NESCAC is allowed to get away with their rinky dink scheduling. You could cross off 2 or 3 of their 5 C candidates right away if they played a legit conference schedule.

Albion would have 3 fewer losses if we don't count the second Calvin Hope and Tri-State games.

They'd be a shoe-in then.