Pool C

[jagluski]

This is last week's NCAA Regional Rankings.  So, records have not been updated through this past week's games (records shown are through Sunday, Feb. 12, I believe).  I've added the results of the most recent games.  Pool C candidates in BOLD.  I believe this week's Regional Poll will NOT be released, right?

Atlantic
1 Bernard Baruch 19-2 21-4 (CUNYAC):  Beat Medgar Evers
2 Farmingdale 15-4 18-4 (SKY): LOST at St. Joseph's (L.I.); won at NYC-Tech
3 The College of New Jersey 15-5 17-6 (NJAC):  LOST at Montclair State; LOST at New Jersey City
4 William Paterson 15-6 16-7 (NJAC):  Beat Ramapo; Won at Rutgers-Camden
5 Mount St. Mary (New York) 16-5 19-5 (SKY):  Beat SUNY-Old Westbury; Won at King's Point 

East
1 Cortland State 19-1 20-2 (SUNYAC):  Won at New Paltz State; LOST to Geneseo State; Won at Fredonia State
2 St. John Fisher 17-1 19-3 (Empire 8 ):  Won at Nazareth; Won at Rochester Tech
3 New York University 17-4 18-4 (UAA): LOST to Chicago; LOST to Washington U
4 Hamilton 15-3 19-3 (Liberty):  LOST at St. Lawrence; Won at Clarkson
5 Rochester 13-5 16-6 (UAA):  LOST at Case Western Reserve; LOST at Emory

Great Lakes
1 Wooster 18-1 22-1 (NCAC):  Beat Kenyon; LOST at Ohio Wesleyan
2 Baldwin-Wallace 19-2 21-2 (OAC):  LOST to Ohio Northern; LOST at Capital
3 Wittenberg 16-2 21-2 (NCAC):  LOST at Wabash; Beat Allegheny
4 Carnegie Mellon 14-3 18-4 (UAA):  LOST at Emory; Won at Case Western Reserve
5 Calvin 9-1 18-5 (MIAA):  Beat Albion; Beat Kalamazoo
5 Hope 14-2 21-2 (MIAA):  Beat Alma; Beat Tri-State

Mid-Atlantic
1 York (Pennsylvania) 18-2 20-2 (CAC):  Beat Gallaudet; Won at Mary Washington
2 Widener 18-3 19-3 (MACC):  Won at Moravian; LOST to Messiah
3 Lincoln (Pennsylvania) 12-4 20-4 (IND): Pool B
4 Alvernia 18-3 20-4 (PnAC):  Beat Marywood
5 Ursinus 17-4 18-5 (Centennial):  Beat Haverford; LOST to Muhlenberg
6 Johns Hopkins 16-4 17-5 (Centennial):  LOST to Gettsyburg; LOST at Franklin and Marshall
7 Catholic 14-5 16-6 (CAC): Won at Salisbury; Beat Gallaudet
8 Messiah 14-6 15-8 (MACC):  LOST at Elizabethtown; Won at Widener

Midwest
1 Lawrence 18-0 20-0 (MWC):  Won at Carroll; Beat St. Norbert
2 Augustana (Illinois) 18-2 20-3 (CCIW):  Beat Ill. Wes; LOST at North Central
3 Carroll (Wisconsin) 17-2 19-2 (MWC): LOST to Lawrence; Won at Beloit
4 Transylvania 19-4 19-4 (HCAC):  Beat Franklin; Beat Defiance
5 Illinois Wesleyan 13-4 18-4 (CCIW):  LOST at Augustana; Beat North Park
6 Lakeland 16-3 20-5 (LMC):  Beat Maranatha Baptist
7 Washington U. in St. Louis 12-5 15-7 (UAA):  Won at Brandeis; Won at NYU
8 Elmhurst 15-6 16-7 (CCIW):  LOST to North Central; Won at Wheaton

Northeast
1 Amherst 22-1 23-2 (NESCAC):  Beta Connecticut College
2 Worcester Polytechnic 18-3 19-3 (NEWMAC):  Beat Springfield
3 Tufts 18-4 19-5 (NESCAC): Beat Williams
4 Gordon 18-2 19-3
5 Trinity (Connecticut) 14-4 17-5 (NESCAC):  Beat Colby
6 Bates 14-5 18-5 (NESCAC): Beat Bowdoin
7 Williams 16-7 17-7 (NESCAC): LOST at Tufts
8 Keene State 13-6 16-6 (Little East):  Won at Plymouth State; Won at Southern Maine
9 Rhode Island College 15-7 15-7 (Little East): LOST at Mass-Dartmouth; Beat Mass-Boston
10 Westfield St 14-7 16-7 (MASCAC):  Beat Framingham State; Won at Massachusetts College

South
1 Mississippi College 19-1 21-1 (ASC-E):  Beat Louisiana College; Won at Texas-Dallas; Won at Texas-Tyler
2 Trinity (Texas) 14-2 18-5 (SCAC):  Beat Sewanee; Beat Centre
3 Virginia Wesleyan 20-3 21-3 (ODAC):  Beat Eastern Mennonite; Beat Eastern Mennonite (this is not a typo!); Beat Guilford
4 Randolph-Macon 16-5 19-5 (ODAC):  Beat Bridgewater; Beat Bridgewater (this is not a typo!); Beat Hampden-Sydney
5 Howard Payne 15-5 16-5 (ASC-W):  LOST At Sul Ross State; Beat Texas Lutheran; Beat Schreiner
6 Christopher Newport 9-2 18-5 (USAC):  LOST at Greensboro; LOST at Methodist
7 Fisk 9-4 14-10  (GSAC): Pool B
7 Maryville (Tennessee.) 14-6 18-6 (GSAC): Pool B Beat Tennessee Wesleyan   

West
1 Occidental 11-1 18-2 (SCIAC): LOST to Redlands; LOST at Clare-Mount-Scripps
2 Wisconsin-Stout 15-4 18-5 (WIAC):  Won at La Crosse
3 Puget Sound 13-2 18-4 (NWC): Beat Willamette; Beat Linfield
4 Wartburg 16-3 18-4 (IIAC):  LOST at Buena Vista; beat Cornell
5 Wisconsin-La Crosse 16-5 18-5 (WIAC):  Won at River Falls; LOST to Stout
6 St. Thomas (Minn.) 17-5 19-5 (MIAC):  Beat Concordia-Moorhead
7 Wisconsin-Whitewater 13-5 17-5 (WIAC):  Won at Oshkosh; Won at Eau Claire
8 Carleton 15-4 18-5 (MIAC):  Beat St. Mary's; Won at Bethel

Funny, Albion with only 3 currently and a max of 4 sits on the outside looking in.

This site has Albion 10-4 in conference, but 11-3 in-region...something is wrong.

Wash U should be bolded.  They lose the tiebreaker in the UAA race to Carnegie Mellon unless they win Saturday and Carnegie Mellon loses.

[Matt Letourneau]

Well at least the VW-RMC result is relatively meaningless for a Pool C, because whichever one didn't win was getting one, I would imagine.  Regardless, its the best result for those of us hoping for a Pool C for our non-ODAC team.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Matt,

True.  Va Wes would have been a lock in pool C; RMC is probable, but not a lock.

[Greek Tragedy]

Wash U should be bolded.  They lose the tiebreaker in the UAA race to Carnegie Mellon unless they win Saturday and Carnegie Mellon loses.

They are currently tied with Carnegie Mellon. 

[sac]

For the moment though Carnegie Mellon holds the tiebreaker for the AQ.

[smedindy]

I think R-MC should, could make it depending on how many surprises there are.

[Titan Q]

Here are the in-region games played by leading Pool C candidate Tufts, of the NESCAC...


Nov 22, 2005  at Springfield +   W 72-71 
Nov 29, 2005  Western New England +   W 91-81 
Dec 1, 2005  Mass-Dartmouth +   W 91-74 
Dec 3, 2005  Brandeis +   W 86-72 1OT 
Dec 6, 2005  at Plymouth State +   L 103-77 
Dec 8, 2005  at Keene State +   W 100-97 
Dec 10, 2005  Clark +   W 99-76 
Jan 3, 2006  MIT +   W 66-61 
Jan 7, 2006  Babson +   W 77-51 
Jan 13, 2006  at Colby * +   W 78-57 
Jan 14, 2006  at Bowdoin * +   L 84-70 
Jan 17, 2006  at Wheaton (Mass.) +   W 88-70 
Jan 20, 2006  Williams * +   L 82-80 
Jan 21, 2006  Middlebury * +   W 80-63 
Jan 27, 2006  Wesleyan * +   W 95-70 
Jan 28, 2006  Connecticut College * +   W 74-65 
Jan 31, 2006  at Western Connecticut +   W 95-80 
Feb 2, 2006  at Mass-Boston +   W 90-81 
Feb 4, 2006  Bates * +   W 91-76 
Feb 7, 2006  at Newbury +   W 72-58 
Feb 10, 2006  at Trinity (Conn.) * +   W 84-80 1OT 
Feb 11, 2006  at Amherst * +   L 99-70 
Feb 18, 2006  Williams @ +   W 101-89 

Here are the in-region games played by not-a-prayer-at-a-Pool C-bid Elmhurst of the CCIW...


Nov 19, 2005  at Hope +   L 70-53 
Nov 22, 2005  St. Norbert +   W 87-56 
Nov 30, 2005  at UW-Platteville +   L 67-66 
Dec 3, 2005  Hanover +   W 67-56 
Dec 7, 2005  at Kalamazoo +   W 88-78 2OT 
Dec 10, 2005  Rockford +   W 97-68 
Dec 16, 2005  Marian +   W 77-60 
Jan 4, 2006  Millikin * +   L 82-75 
Jan 7, 2006  at Augustana * +   L 60-57 
Jan 11, 2006  Carthage * +   W 78-73 
Jan 14, 2006  Illinois Wesleyan * +   W 72-64 
Jan 18, 2006  at North Park * +   W 64-53 
Jan 21, 2006  Wheaton (Ill.) * +   W 87-61 
Jan 25, 2006  at North Central * +   W 94-91 1OT 
Jan 29, 2006  Augustana * +   L 63-60 
Feb 1, 2006  at Millikin * +   W 76-71 
Feb 4, 2006  at Illinois Wesleyan * +   L 88-87 1OT 
Feb 8, 2006  at Carthage * +   W 79-58 
Feb 11, 2006  North Park * +   W 87-63 
Feb 15, 2006  North Central * +   L 62-59 
Feb 18, 2006  at Wheaton (Ill.) * +   W 89-65 


In-region games vs teams in current D3hoops.com Top 25:

Tufts: 1
Elmhurst: 7


Yet, the NCAA is going to compare Tufts to Elmhurst strictly on in-region winning % and in-region QOWI.

[Greek Tragedy]

I would be really surprised if Randolph Macon didn't get in.  Right now they only have two teams ahead of them in the rankings (Virginia Wes. obviously getting the AQ).  Don't know much about Miss. Coll., but looks like they were running away with that league, so I wouldn't anticipate an upset there...Trinity as well.  Not sure about them or that conference.  I'm Turner could fill us in on those two teams' chances of running the conference tourney tables.

[Greek Tragedy]

In-region games vs teams in current D3hoops.com Top 25:

Tufts: 1
Elmhurst: 7


Yet, the NCAA is going to compare Tufts to Elmhurst strictly on in-region winning % and in-region QOWI.

They obviously don't care about the D3hoops.com poll.  But they do care about records vs. teams currently in the in-region rankings.  What is the records of those?  Obviously both would have a lot with Tufts playing Amherst, Williams, Bates and Trinity just in their conference and currently ranked while Elmhurst has had Augustana and Ill. Wes.  I have yet to check the out-of-conference in-region ranked opponents of each.  But, that's an official criteria, if I'm correct. 

[Titan Q]

Just pointing out how bizarre this system is, where we are comparing teams across regions using only in-region data, without any regard for strength of region.

[smedindy]

Titan -

Join the bandwagon, brother, a lot of us harped on this over over a year now. It is asinine. However, the NESCAC schools play the game to a "T". And Tufts has a good profile.

Their Massey is 23 and their SOS in Massey is 49th, which is really good, so maybe they're not the BEST example of this.

Sure, Elmhurst has a Massey of 17 and an SOS of 3, but you know,  if Elmhurst doesn't make it - it can't complain to anyone but itself. The only sure way to make it is to win games.

[Titan Q]

Just to make it clear -- I am not making a case for Elmhurst.  Just using these two teams and their schedules as an example of the flaws in the current system.

Heck, if you really want to illustrate it, look at the in-region games played by Carthage...

Dec 3, 2005  at Hope +   L 75-61 
Dec 5, 2005  Carroll +   L 82-74 
Dec 7, 2005  Beloit +   W 72-69 1OT 
Dec 11, 2005  Lawrence +   L 78-65 
Dec 19, 2005  at Concordia (Wis.) +   W 102-59 
Jan 4, 2006  Grinnell +   W 135-123 
Jan 7, 2006  Illinois Wesleyan * +   L 80-79 
Jan 11, 2006  at Elmhurst * +   L 78-73 
Jan 14, 2006  Augustana * +   L 73-70 
Jan 18, 2006  North Central * +   L 79-60 
Jan 21, 2006  at Millikin * +   W 62-61 
Jan 25, 2006  North Park * +   W 90-63 
Jan 28, 2006  at Illinois Wesleyan * +   L 95-61 
Feb 1, 2006  Wheaton (Ill.) * +   W 76-47 
Feb 4, 2006  at Augustana * +   L 87-80 
Feb 8, 2006  Elmhurst * +   L 79-58 
Feb 11, 2006  at North Central * +   W 85-73 
Feb 15, 2006  at North Park * +   W 72-68 
Feb 18, 2006  Millikin * +   W 87-85 


That is 11 in-region games played vs teams in last week's D3hoops.com poll (with Elmhurst in). 

[sac]

The major flaw of the QOWI is that it assumes a 15-1 team in one-region is the same as a 15-1 team in another.


If the opponents-opponents component passed or passes the we'll see a big improvement in the accuracy and ligitmacy of the numbers.  Untill then though it is badly flawed.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The major flaw of the QOWI is that it assumes a 15-1 team in one-region is the same as a 15-1 team in another.


If the opponents-opponents component passed or passes the we'll see a big improvement in the accuracy and ligitmacy of the numbers.  Untill then though it is badly flawed.

While that would definitely be a step in the right direction, if one is to claim it is a NATIONAL tournament, that still doesn't address the fundamental flaw.  Even if you include the opponent's opponents' opponents' records, so long as it is only IN-REGION opponents it still doesn't do the job.  It is still assuming 'all regions are created equal' which just ain't the case.

[smedindy]

No, it's not the case, but I think a better argument can be made if you don't use Tufts, which as a good power rank and SOS (forget the poll - the poll is the poll and as subjective as other things).


You should aim the guns at teams like Mt. St. Mary's. And actually Baruch, which has dreadful power rankings (152nd Massey, 340 SOS).

(Note: I put Tufts on my poster's poll ballot...but again I like their profile...)