Pool C

[Ralph Turner]

PROBABLY good news for fans of other conferences: Pomona-Pitzer beat Occidental tonight, giving the AQ to Claremont.

It's not so much that Claremont is the winner, but, prior to tonight Oxy looked like a tough pool C competitor.  Does anyone want to make an argument that either Oxy or PP is a viable pool C competitor? 

(This is not meant to be pejorative - I'm just wondering if people feel either of these teams need to be kept of the watch list.)

Actually, I think that CMS becomes travel bait.  They get shipped to the NWC's Pool C bid and the winner goes to the NWC Pool A.

Pat, thanks for the update on York's facility.

[Gregory Sager]

They obviously don't care about the D3hoops.com poll.  But they do care about records vs. teams currently in the in-region rankings.  What is the records of those?  Obviously both would have a lot with Tufts playing Amherst, Williams, Bates and Trinity just in their conference and currently ranked while Elmhurst has had Augustana and Ill. Wes.  I have yet to check the out-of-conference in-region ranked opponents of each.  But, that's an official criteria, if I'm correct. 

Yes, record vs. in-region ranked opponents is one of the criteria. Tufts has played six such games (Williams twice, Amherst, Trinity CT, Bates, and Keene State). They're 4-2 in those games, with at least one more to play (the NESCAC tourney semi on Saturday against Trinity CT), if not two. That 4-2 record is a powerful shot in the arm to the Pool C chances of the Jumbos.

Elmhurst has played five games against regionally-ranked opponents, two apiece against Augustana and Illinois Wesleyan and one against Hope. They're 1-4 in those five games. North Central will almost certainly appear in this Wednesday's Midwest Region rankings, boosting Elmhurst's record to 2-5 in that regard. The Bluejays, too, will face an in-region ranked team this weekend in conference tourney play (newly-ranked North Central on Friday), with a chance to face another one on Saturday if they beat the Cards.

Q is right that Tufts has only played one in-region team that's ranked in the D3hoops.com Top 25. But the Jumbos have actually played two games against current Top 25 teams, regardless of region. Elmhurst has played eight (the seven already mentioned, plus out-of-region Albion). The Bluejays don't have much of which to be proud in that regard, since they've gone 2-6 in those eight games. But look at what the Jumbos have done in their two games against Top 25 teams: A 14-point loss to Wittenberg (granted, it was the first game of the season, but the game was played on a neutral floor), and a 29-point pasting at the hands of Amherst. I like the Jumbos' profile as far as making the big dance as a Pool C candidate is concerned. I don't like it at all in terms of the team's actual merits.

[Greek Tragedy]

PROBABLY good news for fans of other conferences: Pomona-Pitzer beat Occidental tonight, giving the AQ to Claremont.

I would've preferred Oxy just winning the AQ since no other SCIAC team was on the regional ranking radar...thus bumping up all the WIAC teams in the West Region! 

[smedindy]

Gregory -

Backing away, again, from the top 25, Tufts does have a good profile of an at-large team. Their SOS is good, and they did a nice job against the other highly regarded NESCAC teams (split with Williams, beat Trinity and Bates).

Like 'em or not, the overall NESCAC strength of schedule is decent. Tufts has played by far the hardest schedule, though.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't see how R-MC doesn't get a Pool C slot.  They will finish 19-6 with a 10 even QOWI number.  I consider one of the bids gone already.

The Oxy loss puts them in real trouble, but a lot will depend on who else loses this week.

[smedindy]

Actually, I think Oxy's the one in real trouble.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Actually, I think Oxy's the one in real trouble.

Did I say something different?

[smedindy]

Sorry, I thought that you were referring to R-MC, saying that Oxy's loss would put R-MC in trouble for taking a "C" bid.

[bethelguy]

Actually, I think that CMS becomes travel bait.  They get shipped to the NWC's Pool C bid and the winner goes to the NWC Pool A.

Ralph, do you really think the NWC gets a Pool C?  I think Puget will should they lose their tourney, but assuming they win do you think they get a 2nd team in?  Here is my assesment of West Region Pool C...

team	QOW	QOW rank	record	Feb-15 Reg Rank	likely Feb-22 RR
UW-ST	10.000	31	16-4	2nd	1st
Puget	9.706	46	15-2	3rd	2nd
Carl	9.952	34	17-4	8th	5th
UW-WW	9.95	35	15-5	7th	3rd
UST	9.783	41	18-5	6th	4th
Wartburg	9.524	56	17-4	4th	6th
Willamette	9.211	75	16-3	NR	8th ?
Whitwoth	9.455	63	17-5	NR	NR
Oxi *	10.071	26	11-3	1st	7th
LAX	9.87	39	14-2	6th	NR

* - Occi is actually 11-4, QOW was run before their most recent L so they will drop futher in that particular ranking.

UST is 1-2 vs. WIAC teams
Car is 0-1 vs. WIAC teams so that will hurt both MIAC teams, but other criteria they are in a much better position to get Pool C than an NWC team or Occi.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I'm not sure there will be more than two teams out on the West Coast.  CMS is in and the winner from the NWC (UPS, Whitworth or Willamette).  Whitworth has to win to get in, the others are on the bubble.  I don't think either one has done enough to earn it, but their regional records may do it; it's just so hard to guess. 

Ralph alluded to the geographic proximity of the west coast schools as a leg up to getting a pool C.  The problem comes in that the NWC schools can't play each other in the first round and CMS is a flight for any of them anyway.  It may be easier for the NCAA if its just CMS and the NWC champ and then send the winner off somewhere else.  It's going to be more flights than they like any way you figure it.

[pabegg]

At the moment, Trinity TX is the leading candidate from the SCAC and is geographically isolated (no one within 500 miles). So the best bet is to pick up the west coast schools and fly them to San Antonio. If Occidental or a second NWC team makes it, it's a four team group, otherwise it's a three team group.

Of course, if both conferences get a Pool C bid, I assume there will be a four-team group somewhere on the west coast, to save the expense of flying 2 of the teams.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

If Mississippi College gets the bid from the ASC, they can be lumped in with the GSAC team(s) and the other SE schools.  Trinity would make a good bye that plays the winner of the CMS-NWC game.  That makes sense, so it probably won't happen.

[pabegg]

Miss College is right at 500 miles with Maryville TN - does anyone know officially which side of the 500-mile cutoff they are on?

Otherwise, they're only within 500 miles of Fisk, Washington U, and Maryville MO, among likely tournament teams. So that's a possibility to have those three drive down to Clinton.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't think they had to fly to Maryville when they played before.  It would make sense to do a MC vs Maryville and a Fisk vs somebody playing in Clinton.  I did one of these last year which evened out the talent in each bracket and had actually less flights than the actual one, but it blurred the regions too much and of course the NCAA wouldn't do that.  Practicality doesn't fly in the NCAA selection committee.

[Ralph Turner]

If Mississippi College gets the bid from the ASC, they can be lumped in with the GSAC team(s) and the other SE schools.  Trinity would make a good bye that plays the winner of the CMS-NWC game.  That makes sense, so it probably won't happen.

Good points, Hoops Fan.  That would be my alternative should the NWC fail to garner a Pool C bid.