Pool C

[patcummings]

Utica suffered from not being in the regional rankings earlier.  But don't forget, there is a regional ranking that you haven't seen yet, and won't get to see.  The last set of rankings comes out to just the committee. 

I think the Pioneers have a chance based on their strong regional winning percentage.  The QOWI is middle of the road, but they will definitely be much discussed.

Based on my early, purely objective, analysis - rough as it may be - I found five teams I considered locks for Pool C's, regardless of what happens in tournaments.

Hope
Tufts
Wittenberg
Carroll
...
And WILLAMETTE.

Now Willamette isn't even in the regional rankings but their regional winning percentage is third highest in the west (behind Puget Sound and Nebraska Wesleyan).  I mean...for teams not leading their conference, Willamette is really high up there. 

Comparing their regional schedule to Puget Sound's isn't all that different, but there are QOWI differences (UPS about 30 spots higher than Willamette).  Regional winning percentage is a huge consideration, but so too are regional rankings...and it doesn't make much sense that Willamette hasn't found a single spot in the rankings.  I guess scheduling Colorado College and playing regional games v. Whittier and Caltech didn't count for much.  All their other regional games were conference games. 

Compare that to UPS, whose only non-conf regional game was winless Caltech (same opponent as the Bearcats). 

That's the system we've come to know and love.

That being said...my observations were objective, by the numbers.  What numbers and subjectivity the committee has towards Willamette could be a different story.

[Ralph Turner]

I propose that we ignore the WIAC possiblilities from now on until they finish their conference tourney.

As is usually the case in the WIAC, this is the safest bet. 

[augie_superfan]

Looks as if Gordon lost by 16 tonight vs. Colby-Sawyer in the semis of the CCC tourney.  Looks like they finish up at 22-3 in region with a QOWI somewhere between 10 and 10.5 most likely.  Pretty decent Pool C numbers.  Haven't had time to look at the other criteria though.

[augie_superfan]

Also, York (Pa.) goes down tonight and thus should take away one of the Pool C bids.

[smedindy]

Oh, man, it's getting nutty! At least there are some slots for them this time.

[patcummings]

My projections had been based on all conference leaders getting in.  York and Gordon are relative locks right now.  Catholic was in contention for a Pool C bid and if they beat UMW tonight, can avoid the pool with a championship win. 

The CAC isn't getting 3 teams, but had a chance for 2.  Now they'll definitely get 2 because York is an automatic. 

2 Pool C's down, 16 to go.

[Mr. Ypsi]

By the primary criteria, Gordon would certainly seem a lock - 88% in-region W-L and a QOWI that wil probably remain in the top 20.  I wonder how deep into the tourney they would have to go to receive a single top 25 poll vote!

(Have I ever mentioned that regional criteria to select a national tourney is wacko?! )

[smedindy]

Ypsi - you and what army have mentioned it???

[Ralph Turner]

...

Comparing their regional schedule to Puget Sound's isn't all that different, but there are QOWI differences (UPS about 30 spots higher than Willamette). 
...

As I have been looking at the QOWI, I am amazed at what it tells us.

I am finding the mathematical number more informative, the more I deal with it.

UPU is 15-2 in-region.  The Quality of Wins Index  is 9.706.  They have earned 165 points in 17 games.  Since a loss is 8 points less than a win, one more loss for UPS would mean 8 less points or 157 points.  Stated another way, a loss is 8/17ths off the index or .471 QOWI points.

UPS at 15-2 is 9.706 minus 0.471 = 9.235 at 14-3.

Conversely for Willamette, one more win would add 8 points to the QOWI.  Willamettes' QOWI  on their 16-3 record is 9.211.  They have earned 165 points. in 19 games.  If we add one more win, 8 more QOWI points on 19 games is like adding 8/19ths (0.471) to the Index.

Willamette at 16-3 is 9.211 plus 0.421 = 9.632 at 17-2.

30 places on a QOWI table is relative.  By 20-25 game into season, we see real differences (the NESCAC not withstanding).  Thirty places on the QOWI may not be much, or it can be scheduling brilliance and a great team.  The impact on the (Quality of Wins) Index for each loss is:

16 games into 8 points or .500 QOWI points.

20 games into 8 points or .400 QOWI points.

25 games into 8 points or .320 QOWI points.

IMHO, a more helpful way to look at the differences in the QOWI is not by number of places by rank order, but by how much diffference a single loss or win makes in the QOWI.

Now all we need in an adjustment for the opponents' opponents' winning percentage across D3.   

[Gregory Sager]

Now Willamette isn't even in the regional rankings but their regional winning percentage is third highest in the west (behind Puget Sound and Nebraska Wesleyan).  I mean...for teams not leading their conference, Willamette is really high up there.

Wartburg, which is at the tail end of the West Region rankings, lost in the IIAC semis tonight. So that's good news for Willamette.

[Ralph Turner]

Looks as if Gordon lost by 16 tonight vs. Colby-Sawyer in the semis of the CCC tourney.  Looks like they finish up at 22-3 in region with a QOWI somewhere between 10 and 10.5 most likely.  Pretty decent Pool C numbers.  Haven't had time to look at the other criteria though.

I want to thank the Gordon Fighting Scots for the incredible sacrifice that they made tonight.

Their dropping to the ranks of Pool C greatly impacts the likelihood that one fewer NESCAC team will get a cheap Pool C bid.

[smedindy]

Well, I need to update my power rankings to show what's cheap and what's not cheap. Bates wasn't cheap, either. Williams, now that would be chaep.

[Ralph Turner]

Well, I need to update my power rankings to show what's cheap and what's not cheap. Bates wasn't cheap, either. Williams, now that would be chaep.

As I work with the data, I am thinking that 3 NESCAC bids are within the realm of the believable.

I am looking for the next iteration of the Smedindex!

[Ralph Turner]

Here are the Top Pool C candidates by the Regional Rankings:

Atlantic
1 Baruch 20-2 22-4   CUNYAC  Lost to York NY in Finals
2 William Paterson 17-6 18-7  NJAC
3 New Jersey City 16-8 17-9  NJAC Lost to Ramapo in QtrF
4 SUNY-Farmingdale 16-5 19-5  Skyline
5 Richard Stockton 15-7 17-8  NJAC Lost to Ramapo in Semis
NR York NY 15-9 15-13 CUNYAC Pool A  

East
1 St. John Fisher 20-1 22-3  E8
2 Cortland State 21-3 22-4  SUNYAC  Loss to SUNYIT in Semis
3 New York University 17-6 18-6  UAA
4 Utica 18-5 19-5  E8
5 Hamilton 16-4 20-4  LL

Great Lakes
1 Wooster 19-2 23-2 NCAC
2 Calvin 11-1 20-5  MIAA
3 Hope 15-2 23-2  MIAA
4 Wittenberg 17-3 22-3  NCAC
5 Baldwin-Wallace 19-4 21-4  OAC
6 Carnegie Mellon 15-4 19-5   Leading the UAA

Mid-Atlantic
1 York (Pa.) 22-3 24-3  CAC  Lost in CAC Semis
2 Lincoln 12-4 20-4   Pool B #1
3 Alvernia 19-3 21-4 PnAC  Pool A
4 Widener 19-4 20-4  MACC
5 Ursinus 18-5 19-6   CC
6 Catholic 16-5 18-6  CAC
7 Scranton 17-6 19-6   MACF
8 Albright 14-7 16-8  MACC  Lost to Messiah in Semis

Midwest
1 Lawrence 20-0 22-0  MWC
2 Augustana 19-4 21-5   CCIW  Lost to IWU in Semis
3 Transylvania 21-4 21-4  HCAC
4 Carroll 18-3 20-3  MWC
5 Illinois Wesleyan 14-5 19-5  CCIW
6 North Central 14-5 20-5  CCIW
7 Washington U. 14-5 17-7  UAA
8 Lakeland 17-4 21-6  LMC  Lost in LMC Semis

Northeast
1 Amherst 23-1 24-2  NESCAC
2 Worcester Polytech 19-3 20-3  NEWMAC
3 Tufts 19-4 19-5  NESCAC
4 Gordon 22-3 23-4  CCC  Lost in CCC Semis
5 Trinity (Conn.) 15-4 18-5  NESCAC
6 Bates 15-5 19-5  NESCAC
7 Keene State 15-6 18-6  LEC
8 Rhode Island College 16-8 16-8  LEC  Lost in Semis
9 Salem State 18-6 18-7  MASCAC  Lost to Bridgewater St in Semis
10 Williams 16-8 17-8 NESCAC

South
1 Mississippi College 22-1 24-1  ASC-East
2 Trinity (Texas) 16-3 20-6  SCAC  Loss to #8 seed Rhodes in SCAC QtrF. 3pt QOWI loss
3 Virginia Wesleyan 23-3 24-3  ODAC  Pool A
4 Randolph-Macon 19-5 22-5   ODAC
T5. Fisk 9-4 14-10  Pool B candidate  Lost to Huntingdon in Semis
T5. Maryville (Tenn.) 14-6 19-6   Pool B #3
7 Howard Payne 17-6 18-6  ASC-West
8 Mary Hardin-Baylor 17-6 17-8  ASC-West

West
1 UW-Stout 16-4 19-5  WIAC
2 Puget Sound 15-2 20-4  NWC
3 Carleton 17-4 20-5  MIAC
4 Occidental 11-3 18-4  SCIAC  (CMS has the Pool A.)
5 UW-Whitewater 15-5 19-5  WIAC
6 UW-La Crosse 17-6 19-6  WIAC Lost to UW-W in semis
7 Wartburg 17-5 19-6  IIAC  Lost in IIAC Semis
8 St. Thomas 18-5 20-5  MIAC
UR  CMS  SCIAC Pool A


Here are the 30 Top Pool C candidates from the Regional Rankings.

Updated thru 24 Feb 06, 2320 hours, and including the corrections suggested and submitted thru reply #465 (Old School).   I agree with Point Special and knightstalker that the WIAC is a real moving target!

[Gregory Sager]

You should remove the line through Wartburg's name as well, Ralph.

Whitman (17-5 WR, 9.864 QOWI) defeated Willamette (16-3 WR, 9.421 QOWI) this evening to advance to the Northwest Conference final against #2 WR Puget Sound.