Pool C

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

You never know this time of year, the NCAA bug gets into so many otherwise normal, logical people's heads.  It's like a bad science fiction movie.

[TeeDub]

.....otherwise normal, logical people's heads. 

Am I to take this as you find me "otherwise normal and logical"?...this is a big day in d3hoops...

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

.....otherwise normal, logical people's heads. 

Am I to take this as you find me "otherwise normal and logical"?...this is a big day in d3hoops...

Well, consider the source.

[pabegg]

Since the NCAA uses the regional rankings to pick the Pool C teams, I thought I'd look at the impact of the games so far this week.

NE: Gordon stays at #4 despite their loss - they're still ahead of Trinity on QOWI and WP.

AT: Farmingdale up to #3; Ramapo into rankings.

MA: York falls to #3 behind Lincoln, but still ahead of Alvernia.

SO: Randolph Macon and Virginia Wesleyan stay unchanged.

MW: Lakeland stays at #8, since no one else is close.

WE: 4 Whitewater, 5 LaCrosse, 6 Occidental, 7 St. Thomas, 8 Wartburg or Whitworth.

Bottom line for Pool C: Gordon, York, RMC are all safely in. LaCrosse leads Occidental in the West Region bubble race.

[Knightstalker]

Don't pay attention to regions for the Pool C teams.

[Pat Coleman]

Actually, the regions are relevant, because the top candidate in each region is "on the board" at the same time.

But VWC and RMC did play since the last regional rankings came out. Those are always through Sunday and the ODAC title game was Monday.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Let's look at it regionally.  Here is my take on teams with a shot at Pool C, as it stands now, before more upsets clog things up:

NE: Tufts, Gordon, Trinity

E: NYU, Utica

A: NJCU, Richard Stockton

MA: York, Scranton

S: RMC, Fisk (I'm not convinced they'll get a Pool B with a loss to Maryville), HPU

GL: Hope, Wittenberg, Albion, Wilmington, Ohio Northern, Bethany (might miss Pool B), Ohio Wesleyan

M: Carroll, IWU, WashU, North Central, Lakeland

W: Stout, LaCrosse, Occidental, St Thomas, Whitworth

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It would be tough to pick down through without the final QOWI, but that is what it looks like now, without upsets.  It could get quite tight by Sunday.

[Pat Coleman]

Men's QOWI through Thursday's games.

I'm a little concerned there may be conference tourney games we have missed getting onto the schedule. Please let me know if that's the case.

1-10
Amherst     12.000     22-1
Lawrence    11.550    20-0
Worcester Polytech    11.091    19-3
Tufts    11.000    19-4
Mississippi College    10.913    22-1
Augustana    10.864    19-3
Trinity (Texas)    10.833    16-2
Lincoln    10.813    12-4
St. John Fisher    10.810    20-1
Cortland State    10.667    22-2
               
11-20
Gordon    10.560    22-3
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3
Carnegie Mellon    10.389    14-4
William Paterson    10.250    18-6
Bates    10.238    16-5
Wittenberg    10.238    18-3
Wooster    10.227    20-2
Washington U.    10.211    14-5
Baruch    10.174    21-2
               
21-30
UW-Whitewater    10.136    17-5
Carleton    10.136    18-4
Keene State    10.130    17-6
Carroll    10.095    18-3
Transylvania    10.080    21-4
Illinois Wesleyan    10.053    14-5
Calvin    10.000    12-1
UW-Stout    10.000    18-4
Widener    10.000    19-4
Alvernia    9.958    21-3

31-40
Lakeland    9.905    17-4
North Central    9.895    14-5
Trinity (Conn.)    9.895    15-4
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.870    18-5
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6
Ursinus    9.826    18-5
St. Thomas    9.792    19-5
Hope    9.765    15-2
Occidental    9.750    12-4
               
41-50
Baldwin-Wallace    9.750    20-4
Fisk    9.714    10-4
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.714    6-1
Puget Sound    9.706    15-2
New York University    9.696    17-6
Utica    9.667    19-5
Whitworth    9.652    18-5
MIT    9.652    16-7
Salem State    9.583    18-6
Lake Erie    9.550    16-4
               
51-60
Williams    9.542    16-8
Rhode Island College    9.480    17-8
Wheaton (Mass.)    9.478    15-8
Westfield State    9.478    16-7
Colby-Sawyer    9.458    16-8
New Jersey    9.455    14-8
Rochester    9.450    13-7
Catholic    9.435    18-5
Bowdoin    9.429    13-8
Albright    9.409    14-8
               
61-70
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    9.400    15-5
Howard Payne    9.391    17-6
Mary Hardin-Baylor    9.391    17-6
Pomona-Pitzer    9.353    13-4
Messiah    9.348    16-7
Endicott    9.333    16-8
Mount St. Mary    9.333    18-6
Manhattanville    9.320    17-8
Bethany    9.304    19-4
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.300    14-6
               
71-80
UW-Stevens Point    9.292    15-9
Johns Hopkins    9.286    15-6
Wartburg    9.273    17-5
Albion    9.267    12-3
Hamilton    9.250    16-4
Scranton    9.250    18-6
Richard Stockton    9.208    15-9
Willamette    9.200    16-4
Emmanuel    9.200    19-6
New Jersey City    9.167    16-8
               
81-90
Coe    9.143    15-6
Hanover    9.143    13-8
Elmhurst    9.143    14-7
UW-Oshkosh    9.136    13-9
McMurry    9.136    16-6
Franklin    9.130    17-6
Plymouth State    9.115    16-10
Centre    9.100    13-7
Oswego State    9.083    18-6
Ohio Northern    9.048    16-5
               
91-100
Norwich    9.042    19-5
Ohio Wesleyan    9.000    17-6
Elms    9.000    18-4
Rutgers-Newark    9.000    17-9
Elizabethtown    9.000    13-9
Ramapo    8.957    14-9
Chicago    8.947    11-8
Wilmington    8.923    20-6
Gettysburg    8.913    15-8
Coast Guard    8.913    16-7
               
101-110
Brockport State    8.905    12-9
Aurora    8.900    13-7
Averett    8.900    15-5
Mass-Boston    8.870    14-9
Milwaukee Engineering    8.857    14-7
Villa Julie    8.850    16-4
Southwestern    8.850    14-6
Gustavus Adolphus    8.833    16-8
Pitt-Greensburg    8.762    14-7
Clarke    8.714    14-7
               
111-120
Baptist Bible    8.706    13-4 INELIGIBLE
Brandeis    8.696    13-10
Springfield    8.667    10-14
Mass-Dartmouth    8.636    12-10
Christopher Newport    8.615    9-4
Plattsburgh State    8.609    14-9
Union    8.600    13-7
Wilkes    8.600    13-7
SUNYIT    8.591    12-10
Bridgewater State    8.591    13-9

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Ok, disregard what I said.  That list of possible Pool C teams has to be rearranged in light of these QOWI numbers.  I know there will be a lot of shifts with the tournaments finishing up, but I don't think I did a good enough job down there.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

1-10
Amherst     12.000     22-1
Lawrence    11.550    20-0
Worcester Polytech    11.091    19-3
Tufts    11.000    19-4
Mississippi College    10.913    22-1
Augustana    10.864    19-3
Trinity (Texas)    10.833    16-2
Lincoln    10.813    12-4 Pool B
St. John Fisher    10.810    20-1
Cortland State    10.667    22-2
               
11-20
Gordon    10.560    22-3
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3 Already in, Pool A
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3
Carnegie Mellon    10.389    14-4
William Paterson    10.250    18-6
Bates    10.238    16-5
Wittenberg    10.238    18-3
Wooster    10.227    20-2
Washington U.    10.211    14-5
Baruch    10.174    21-2
               
21-30
UW-Whitewater    10.136    17-5
Carleton    10.136    18-4
Keene State    10.130    17-6
Carroll    10.095    18-3
Transylvania    10.080    21-4
Illinois Wesleyan    10.053    14-5
Calvin    10.000    12-1
UW-Stout    10.000    18-4
Widener    10.000    19-4
Alvernia    9.958    21-3 Already in, Pool A

31-40
Lakeland    9.905    17-4
North Central    9.895    14-5
Trinity (Conn.)    9.895    15-4
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.870    18-5
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6
Ursinus    9.826    18-5
St. Thomas    9.792    19-5
Hope    9.765    15-2
Occidental    9.750    12-4

That's 18 Italicised Pool C contenders.  Here are the next five.
           
41-50
Baldwin-Wallace    9.750    20-4
Fisk    9.714    10-4 Pool B
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.714    6-1 Pool B
Puget Sound    9.706    15-2
New York University    9.696    17-6
Utica    9.667    19-5
Whitworth    9.652    18-5
MIT    9.652    16-7
Salem State    9.583    18-6

[Mr. Ypsi]

Commenting on two of the named C candidates:

Lakeland does seem reasonably likely (17-4 in region, #31 QOWI) - their biggest problem is that they will probably not even reach the table until at least #5 in the MW.  IF they get a chance to BE considered, they seem strong, but will they even reach the table?

Willamette seems like a real long-shot - their in-region is a highly respectable 16-4, but they're only #78 in QOWI and not even listed in the last W regional rankings WE will see.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Yeah, these QOWI numbers are making me rethink that.  Still, with the in-region winning percentage, we at least have to keep them on the table for now.

By the way, its looking more and more likely Albion will not get a Pool C bid.  That seems very strange.

[Titan Q]

Looking back at last year, below is the QOWI Pat posted after the Saturday games, heading into Selection Sunday 2005 (page 2 of this thread).  Final Pool A and B teams are crossed off...the Pool C's selected are in bold.  In region records from the final regional polls are included for the top Pool C candidates.

(Whatever games were played on Selection Sunday last year are not factored in below obviously.)


1-10
Amherst     12.083
St. John Fisher    10.957
Worcester Polytech    10.920
Illinois Wesleyan    10.909
Ramapo    10.792
Springfield    10.731 (21-5, .807)   C  
King's    10.720
Puget Sound    10.684
Aurora    10.636
UW-Stevens Point    10.600

11-20
Maryville (Tenn.)    10.478
Rochester    10.435
Gustavus Adolphus    10.423
Albright    10.400
Lawrence    10.381
Potsdam State    10.370
Mississippi College    10.348 (20-4, .833)   C
York (Pa.)    10.273
Wittenberg    10.227
Virginia Wesleyan    10.200

21-30
Hanover    10.200
Salem State    10.167
Lebanon Valley    10.130
Albion    10.118 (14-3, .824)  C
Pomona-Pitzer    10.063
Bates    10.042 (17-8, .680)
Scranton    10.000 (18-6, .750) 
Western Connecticut    9.962
DeSales    9.960 (18-7, .720) 
Wooster    9.958 (22-2, .917)    C

31-40
Trinity (Conn.)    9.952 (15-6, .714) 
Trinity (Texas)    9.944
Hardin-Simmons    9.917 (18-6, .780)
Benedictine    9.917 (19-5, .792)
Franklin and Marshall    9.885 (20-7, .741) 
Endicott    9.885
Gwynedd-Mercy    9.875
John Carroll    9.833 (19-5, .792)  C
Lincoln    9.765 (12-4, .750)
New Jersey City    9.762 (13-7, .650)   C

41-50
Wheaton (Ill.)    9.737 (15-4, .789)   C
Calvin    9.733
Transylvania    9.682
Buena Vista    9.636
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.625
Ripon    9.625
Plymouth State    9.615
Elmhurst    9.609
Messiah    9.600
Colby-Sawyer    9.600

51-60
Oswego State    9.593
Rochester Tech    9.500
George Fox    9.444
UW-Platteville    9.417
Southwestern    9.381
St. Thomas    9.375
Wartburg    9.333
New Jersey    9.320
Sul Ross State    9.304
Rhode Island College    9.292

61-70
New York City Tech    9.280
Mary Hardin-Baylor    9.280
Wheaton (Mass.)    9.269
Richard Stockton    9.269
Washington U.    9.238
Clarke    9.238
Husson    9.227
Hobart    9.227
Penn State-Behrend    9.208
Bethany    9.190

71-80
Cortland State    9.160
Norwich    9.111
Carroll    9.087
Wilkes    9.083
UW-Oshkosh    9.083
Catholic    9.080
Lasell    9.071
Adrian    9.053
Carnegie Mellon    9.048
Augustana    9.048

81-90
Randolph-Macon    9.042
Tufts    9.000
Pitt-Greensburg    9.000
Goucher    8.952
Williams    8.950
Mary Washington    8.950
Hampden-Sydney    8.913
Lycoming    8.909
Muskingum    8.880
William Paterson    8.875

91-100
Ursinus    8.870
Rowan    8.870
Carleton    8.870
Gettysburg    8.864
Elms    8.857  
Centre    8.840
McMurry    8.833
Keene State    8.818
Elizabethtown    8.818
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    8.813

101-110
Otterbein    8.810
Baldwin-Wallace    8.792
Occidental    8.786
Union    8.783
Rutgers-Newark    8.783
Lehman    8.739
Capital    8.739
Bridgewater (Va.)    8.739
Lake Erie    8.696
Framingham State    8.696

111-119
UW-Whitewater    8.682
Western New England    8.667
Brockport State    8.667
Bethel    8.667
Brandeis    8.625
Maine-Farmington    8.619
Ithaca    8.591
Kean    8.583
Chapman    8.583

5 teams in the 2005 field were below this QOWI cutoff:

Mt St. Mary
Methodist
Texas-Dallas
Blackburn
Edgewood

[David Collinge]

By the way, its looking more and more likely Albion will not get a Pool C bid.  That seems very strange.

Well, I've been saying that for a couple of weeks now.  It may seem strange if you are thinking about how good the team is, or how solid the program is, but their numbers don't add up.

Other GL teams that have no reasonable shot at Pool C (probably behind Albion in the GL cafeteria line) are Ohio Northern, Wilmington, Ohio Wesleyan, Lake Erie.

GL Pool C bids:  Wooster or Wittenberg (or both, if need be) are locks.  Calvin (if necessary) is a lock.  Baldwin-Wallace (if necessary) is a lock.  Hope is in if they beat Albion today.  Bethany will get a Pool B bid.  That's pretty much it, from where I sit.