Pool C

smedindy · February 25, 2006, 12:50:48 AM

DC - that's exactly what I meant. And it's still sad Albion can't go.

And I KNOW who the best 18 teams are (and the best 4 B's as well) - if the NCAA would just consult me!

Greek Tragedy · February 25, 2006, 12:59:07 AM

I'm now thinking Albion has a shot.

There are only SIX teams in the Great Lakes Regional.

Wooster, Calvin, Wittenberg, Hope, Baldwin-Wallace and Carnegie Mellon.

Wooster/Wittenberg gets the AQ
Calvin/Hope gets the AQ
Baldwin-Wallace plays in the OAC championship game
Carnegie Mellon just has to win on Saturday to take the UAA

So, potentially, there will only be TWO teams ahead of Albion. I have a feeling Ohio Northern will be right behind Albion, if not already ahead of them.

sac · February 25, 2006, 01:06:15 AM

OS makes a good point.......Albion could end up being on the table fairly early. Witt/Woo and Cal/Hope losers will go pretty fast into the C group.......I hope.

The key is really the "silent" ranking on Suday.

Greek Tragedy · February 25, 2006, 01:09:40 AM

Quote from: sac on February 25, 2006, 01:06:15 AM
The key is really the "silent" ranking on Suday.

"silent" ranking? Is that kind of like the "silent" N in Sunday?

Ralph Turner · February 25, 2006, 01:10:57 AM

Quote from: sac on February 25, 2006, 12:19:10 AM
Quote from: smedindy on February 24, 2006, 11:10:16 PM
Just thank God that they expanded the "C" pool to 18 this year, otherwise can you imagine the gnashing of teeth and rending of garments? The sackcloth would come out, big time!

amen to that.

Can I officially take Hope off the bubble, with a 15 point QOWI win tonight and maximum points for a loss tomorrow .......if that should happen.

Albion............4 in-region losses Calvin, @ Hope, @ Calvin, Hope

something is wrong with this system they should be in.

I will play devil's advocate on the Albion case. Their in-region record, and the NCAA has been using this system since before the current players came to college, is 12-4

The non-conference games that were wasted and did not help Albion's case were:

Michigan-Dearborn--NAIA
DePauw -- 78-70 home win over an average South Region team in a very average conference.
Spring Arbor-- another NAIA school
Univ of Dallas -- South Region and so bad that they lost to Dallas Christian College, a weak NCCAA school! Ugh!
LaGrange-- a 73-70 win over the last place finisher in the South Region GSAC.
Concordia MI -- another NAIA.

I calculate that Albion has a QOWI OF 9.125.

If Albion had substituted road games with Bethany, Lake Erie, PSU-Behrend Pitt Greensburg (all 15 point wins) Wabash and Muskingum 13 point wins, the QOWI rises to 10.556 on an in-region record of 18-4. If you lost to Muskingum on the road, the In-Region record would be 17-5, and the QOWI would be 10.181. There is the Pool C bid!

The MIAA ought to be cherry-picking the AMCC. Go on the road. It is worth an extra point in the numerator!

sac · February 25, 2006, 01:13:30 AM

You realize the AMCC is on the other side of Ohio right?

Pat Coleman · February 25, 2006, 01:20:53 AM

Quote from: Hoops Fan on February 24, 2006, 04:45:03 PM

I'll be interested to see if Pat and crew can run the QOWI numbers quick enough on Sunday for us to see them before the announcement. I'd like to test that theory about taking the best regional winning percenatage from a group of high QOWI C contenders.

Probably. I'll be at work, though.

David Collinge · February 25, 2006, 01:23:03 AM

Yeah, I agree with Ralph. I seem to have taken the job of official Albion denier, a role I do not relish. I like Albion, and Coach Turner, and sincerely hope they get in.

But 9.125 is a mediocre QoWI, like around 75th or 80th nationally when the dust settles. So if QoWI is key, they're in trouble.

And .750 is a good but not outstanding win %. And I have to think that the committee would prefer 15-5 to 12-4; in other words, among the teams at or around .750, I think more wins is preferable to fewer losses. So if win % is key, they're a little better off, but probably not much.

But most likely, what is key is some combination of these factors. And with Albion being mediocre in one, and mediocre-to-good in the other, their odds are long indeed. Even if they are the third GL team at the table. (After all, when the 18th C team is selected, there will be seven disappointed teams still at the table.)

Ralph Turner · February 25, 2006, 01:38:34 AM

David, a 17-5 Albion in Great Lakes games, has a 1-4 record against Calvin and Hope, but are 16-1 against the rest of the Great Lakes teams.

Pat Coleman addressed the ASC Coaches in summer 2004. He strongly advised that they schedule South Region games. To insure that the ASC has South Region games, the conference plays a 22 game Conference schedule.

As geographically isolated as Michigan is, Texas is worse. Nevertheless, he graded the ASC.

http://www.d3hoops.com/dailydose/?p=61

I think that this is a strong message to Albion and anyone else who is on the edge of a Pool C bid.

David Collinge · February 25, 2006, 02:09:44 AM

Of course, the too-few-regional-games knife cuts both ways. Just go a few miles west from Albion in I-94 for a perfect counter-example: Calvin is a threadbare but highly successful 13-1* in the GL (entirely within the MIAA), and their 3-game losing streak in late November is successfully forgotten by virtue of the fact that they came against non-GL (indeed, non-D3) teams. They will finish the season with 15 regional games, all in conference, and a regional record/QoWI combo of either 14-1/10.267 (and Pool A) or 13-2/9.7133 (Pool C), easily good enough to qualify. I don't condone it, and it is a razor's-edge way to schedule (vis-a-vis the national tournament), but it can work for you.

Of course, the quintessential way to succeed with as few regional games as possible is being pioneered by Nebraska Wesleyan.

*Note to Pat Coleman: Tonight's Kalamazoo/Calvin MIAA semifinal is not listed as regional on Calvin's schedule page.

Pat Coleman · February 25, 2006, 02:19:42 AM

Quote from: Ralph Turner on February 25, 2006, 01:38:34 AM
David, a 17-5 Albion in Great Lakes games, has a 1-4 record against Calvin and Hope, but are 16-1 against the rest of the Great Lakes teams.

Pat Coleman addressed the ASC Coaches in summer 2004. He strongly advised that they schedule South Region games. To insure that the ASC has South Region games, the conference plays a 22 game Conference schedule.

As geographically isolated as Michigan is, Texas is worse. Nevertheless, he graded the ASC.

http://www.d3hoops.com/dailydose/?p=61

I think that this is a strong message to Albion and anyone else who is on the edge of a Pool C bid.

I did address them, though I encouraged them to play non-conference South Region games. As you see in the blog, not all do.

Pat Coleman · February 25, 2006, 02:20:51 AM

Dave, thanks, we'll get that taken care of.

Greek Tragedy · February 25, 2006, 08:13:53 AM

So, on the front page you mentioned that "normally a 1/8 game isn't played on the 8's home court" but it was when Rhodes beat Trinity (TX)...why was that? Just curious...and that might have cost Trinity the win. Interesting.

carlweathers · February 25, 2006, 08:49:41 AM

Sc

Quote from: Old School on February 25, 2006, 08:13:53 AM
So, on the front page you mentioned that "normally a 1/8 game isn't played on the 8's home court" but it was when Rhodes beat Trinity (TX)...why was that? Just curious...and that might have cost Trinity the win. Interesting.

The SCAC Tournament is held every year in Memphis. Every other year the men or women play at Rhodes for the first round and at another site in Memphis for the first round. The Semis and Finals are all at Rhodes. This year the men's first round was at Rhodes and a 6:00 pm tip. Sounded like a tough crowd.

Also, Trinity's in-region record is listed at 12-3 on the front page. It is in fact 16-3.

fisheralum03 · February 25, 2006, 09:03:31 AM

If Utica loses to Fisher tonight, do you think they will get in the NCAA Tournament? I think there are a few teams ahead of them that they need to have lose to get in.