Pool C

[thebear]

Just saw this discussion.

A theory

East is way down this year, Rochester & NYU likely out of Pool C contention.
E-8 & Liberty League won by the favorites, Cortland probably a Pool C. Plattsburgh an upset SUNYAC winner, with 10 losses.  

Only four sure bids for the region.  That leaves probably four open slots in an 8 team bracket as none of the East teams are strong enough to get one of the 5 first round byes. (Fisher has out of region losses to B-W & Randolph Macon)

That said, a number of the GL teams are within a bus trip of Rochester, and perhaps Cortland.

BW, Woo, CMU, Lake Erie, Bethany, ONU all within a 400 mile bus ride of Rochester (Fisher) / Cortland /Utica (Hamilton).  The map programs show Albion within 500 mi of Rochester (routing through Canada).  Could give the tournament committee a chance to balance brackets, and split up say Woo & Witt, or a third bid to an MIAA team, but with a tough 1st round road game.

I could see Great Lakes, New England, and Mid-Atlantic all picking up bids in the East bracket this year.  

Plattsburgh, which is the extreme Northeast corner of the East  region is actually closer to many of the New England Schools, just a boat ride away from the Interstate in Burlington, VT.

Could very well see an East bracket with only three East teams.

Tomorrow night at 10 will tell the tale.

[Ralph Turner]

Here's how I see the final Great Lakes regional rankings, assuming I have recalculated the QoWI correctly:

1. Wittenberg (20-3, QoWI 10.652)
2. Hope (17-2, 10.211)
3. Baldwin-Wallace (22-4, 10.077)
4. Wooster (21-3, 10.042)
5. Carnegie Mellon (15-4, 10.474)
6. Calvin (13-2, 9.750)
---------------------------
7. Lake Erie (18-4, 9.682)
8. Bethany (20-4, 9.417)
9. Ohio Northern (17-6, 9.130)
10. Albion (12-4, 9.125)

Pool C candidates shown in boldface; Pool B candidate shown in italics.

9. Ohio Northern (17-6 (.739), 9.130)
10. Albion (12-4 (.750), 9.125)

I'd put this up as more of a tie than ONU having the lead.  Albion holds the lead for inregion win percentage, meanwhile only .005 seperates the QOWI.  They are dead locked and you would have to look at more criteria for consideration.  Regardless, I don't believe either will recieve a bid. 

Most accurately the criteria state:

Win-loss percentage against regional opponents.
Quality-of-Wins-Index


Let's remember that we also need to include these criteria for the Pools B and C:

In-region head-to-head
In-region vs common opponents
In-region vs regionally ranked teams.

I place Albion ahead of Ohio Northern because:

1) Albion has a higher in-region win-loss percentage  (12-4 or .750  vs   17-6 .739)

2) Albion was 1-0 versus BWC and ONU was only 1-2.

[hugenerd]

Here's how I see the final Great Lakes regional rankings, assuming I have recalculated the QoWI correctly:

1. Wittenberg (20-3, QoWI 10.652)
2. Hope (17-2, 10.211)
3. Baldwin-Wallace (22-4, 10.077)
4. Wooster (21-3, 10.042)
5. Carnegie Mellon (15-4, 10.474)
6. Calvin (13-2, 9.750)
---------------------------
7. Lake Erie (18-4, 9.682)
8. Bethany (20-4, 9.417)
9. Ohio Northern (17-6, 9.130)
10. Albion (12-4, 9.125)

Pool C candidates shown in boldface; Pool B candidate shown in italics.

I saw this on CMUs schedule also on the d3hoops website, but there is an error because CMUs second game with Brandeis is not being counted as an in-region game when they are clearly in their conference.  They are actually 16-4 in region (I know this doesnt matter since they are Pool A but I thought I would mention it).  Also, their updated QOWI is 10.50 (probably due to the same discrepency).

[dren]

1-10
Amherst     12.000     22-1 plays Tufts sunday for pool A
Lawrence    11.571    21-0 pool A MWC champ
Worcester Polytech    11.091    19-3  plays MIT sunday for auto
Tufts    11.000    19-4 plays Amhert sunday for pool A
St. John Fisher    10.864    21-1 pool A Empire 8 Conference Champ
Mississippi College    10.833    23-1 plays Howard Payne sunday for pool A
Lincoln    10.813    12-4 pool B lock
Gordon    10.560    22-3 completed play 2/23 in semis loss
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3 completed play 2/24 in semis loss
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3 Pool A ODAC champ
               
11-20
Augustana    10.478    19-4 completed play 2/24 lost in semis
Wittenberg    10.455    19-3 Pool A auto won NCAC championship
Cortland State    10.440    22-3 completed play 2/24 lost in Semis
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3 lost in CAC semis
Carnegie Mellon    10.389    14-4  UAA conf champ
William Paterson    10.250    18-6 pool A auto NJAC champ
Bates    10.238    16-5 lost in semi finals 2/25
Transylvania    10.231    22-4 pool A auto HCAC champ
Carroll    10.227    19-3 lost in MWC final
Wooster    10.217    21-2 lost in NCAC final
               
21-30
Washington U.    10.211    14-5 lost in final game
UW-Whitewater    10.136    17-5 Pool A auto WIAC Champ
Carleton    10.136    18-4 lost in MIAC final
Illinois Wesleyan    10.100    15-5 lost in CCIW final
Widener    10.083    20-4 lost in MACC final
Keene State    10.042    18-6 lost in LEC final
UW-Stout    10.000    18-4 lost in WIAC final
Calvin    10.000    13-1 lost in MIAA final
Baruch    9.958    21-3 lost in CUNYAC final
Alvernia    9.958    21-3 Pool A PAC auto               

[David Collinge]

You guys may well be correct in that Albion will be ahead of ONU.  I had ONU ahead because I think the committee will favor the larger number of in-region games and use the slightly higher QoWI as their excuse.  But regardless, I think the question is academic; I don't believe either will get a bid, and the only question is which one is at the table when the bids run out.

Hugenerd, I don't think your corrections would change the seeding, as I don't think those changes are enough for CMU to catch Wooster. 

[hugenerd]

I agree, I was just knitpicking.  Although CMU's QOWI will be a full half point higher than Wooster's, with their loss.  CMU does have an additional loss in region and a few less wins, I don't think it will matter that much, both teams will be in the tourney and who knows if they will even play in the same region when the pairings are announced.

[Ralph Turner]

1-10
Amherst     12.000     22-1 plays Tufts Sunday for pool A
Lawrence    11.571    21-0 pool A MWC champ
Worcester Polytech    11.091    19-3  plays MIT Sunday for auto
Tufts    11.000    19-4 plays Amherst sunday for pool A
St. John Fisher    10.864    21-1 pool A Empire 8 Conference Champ
Mississippi College    10.833    23-1 plays Howard Payne sunday for pool A
Lincoln    10.813    12-4 pool B lock
Gordon    10.560    22-3 completed play 2/23 in semis loss
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3 completed play 2/24 in semis loss
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3 Pool A ODAC champ
               
11-20
Augustana    10.478    19-4 completed play 2/24 lost in semis
Wittenberg    10.455    19-3 Pool A auto won NCAC championship
Cortland State    10.440    22-3 completed play 2/24 lost in Semis
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3 lost in CAC semis
Carnegie Mellon    10.389    14-4  UAA conf champ
William Paterson    10.250    18-6 pool A auto NJAC champ
Bates    10.238    16-5 lost in semi-finals 2/25
Transylvania    10.231    22-4 pool A auto HCAC champ
Carroll    10.227    19-3 lost in MWC final
Wooster    10.217    21-2 lost in NCAC final
               
21-30
Washington U.    10.211    14-5 lost final game
UW-Whitewater    10.136    17-5 Pool A auto WIAC Champ
Carleton    10.136    18-4 lost in MIAC final
Illinois Wesleyan    10.100    15-5 lost in CCIW final
Widener    10.083    20-4 lost in MACC final
Keene State    10.042    18-6 lost in LEC final
UW-Stout    10.000    18-4 lost in WIAC final
Calvin    10.000    13-1 lost in MIAA final
Baruch    9.958    21-3 lost in CUNYAC final
Alvernia    9.958    21-3 Pool A PAC auto               

Dren, one correction...Bates lost in the Semis.

And I count 17 top candidates by QOWI, 16 glowing examples plus the Amherst-Tufts loser.  Who is #18 on your list?

+1 karma!  Great list!

[dren]

31-40
Hope    9.944    16-2 Pool A auto MIAA champs
Baldwin-Wallace    9.920    21-4 Pool A auto OAC champs
Lakeland    9.905    17-4 Lost in semis of LMC
Trinity (Conn.)    9.895    15-4 Lost in semis of NESCAC
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7 Lost in semis of WIAC
Utica    9.880    20-5 Lost in finals of Empire 8
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.870    18-5 Pool A auto SUNY
North Central    9.850    15-5 Pool A auto CCIW
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6 lost in final ODAC
Ursinus    9.826    18-5 Plays in finals on Sunday vs John Hopkins
             
41-50
St. Thomas    9.792    19-5 Pool A auto MIAC

[dren]

these are all based on QoWI of yesterday... not the updated ones for today...

[Pat Coleman]

1-10
Amherst     12.083     23-1
Lawrence    11.682    22-0
Tufts    11.167    20-4
Worcester Polytech    11.130    20-3
St. John Fisher    11.000    22-1
Mississippi College    11.000    24-1
Lincoln    10.688    12-4
Wittenberg    10.652    20-3
Gordon    10.560    22-3
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3
               
11-20
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3
Augustana    10.478    19-4
Carnegie Mellon    10.474    15-4
Transylvania    10.444    23-4
Cortland State    10.440    22-3
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3
UW-Whitewater    10.304    18-5
William Paterson    10.240    19-6
Hope    10.211    17-2
North Central    10.095    16-5
               
21-30
Bates    10.091    16-6
Carroll    10.087    19-4
Baldwin-Wallace    10.077    22-4
Washington U.    10.050    14-6
Wooster    10.042    21-3
Carleton    10.000    18-5
St. Thomas    9.960    20-5
Alvernia    9.958    21-3
Baruch    9.958    21-3
Illinois Wesleyan    9.952    15-6
               
31-40
Puget Sound    9.944    16-2
Widener    9.920    20-5
Ursinus    9.917    19-5
Lakeland    9.905    17-4
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.875    19-5
UW-Stout    9.870    18-5
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6
Fisk    9.800    10-5
Keene State    9.800    18-7
               
41-50
MIT    9.792    17-7
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5
Occidental    9.750    12-4
Calvin    9.733    13-2
Utica    9.692    20-6
Messiah    9.583    17-7
Catholic    9.542    19-5
Whitworth    9.542    18-6
Howard Payne    9.520    19-6
New York University    9.500    17-7
               
51-60
Lake Erie    9.500    18-4
Williams    9.458    16-8
Colby-Sawyer    9.458    16-8
Johns Hopkins    9.455    16-6
New Jersey    9.455    14-8
Maryville (Tenn.)    9.455    15-7
Centre    9.455    15-7
Bowdoin    9.429    13-8
Hamilton    9.409    18-4
Albright    9.409    14-8
               
61-70
Claremont-Mudd-Scripps    9.400    15-5
Mary Hardin-Baylor    9.360    18-7
Scranton    9.360    19-6
Pomona-Pitzer    9.353    13-4
Nebraska Wesleyan    9.333    7-2
Bethany    9.333    20-4
Rochester    9.333    13-8
Endicott    9.333    16-8
Rhode Island College    9.308    17-9
UW-Stevens Point    9.292    15-9
               
71-80
Wheaton (Mass.)    9.292    15-9
Wartburg    9.273    17-5
Elms    9.250    20-4
Salem State    9.240    18-7
Manhattanville    9.231    17-9
Richard Stockton    9.208    15-9
Chicago    9.200    12-8
Emmanuel    9.200    19-6
Willamette    9.200    16-4
New Jersey City    9.167    16-8
               
81-90
Westfield State    9.167    16-8
Norwich    9.160    20-5
Villa Julie    9.143    17-4
UW-Oshkosh    9.136    13-9
Ohio Northern    9.130    17-6
Albion    9.125    12-4
McMurry    9.125    17-7
Franklin    9.120    18-7
Mass-Boston    9.120    16-9
Mount St. Mary    9.083    18-6
               
91-100
Christopher Newport    9.067    11-4
Hanover    9.048    13-8
Elmhurst    9.045    14-8
Plattsburgh State    9.040    16-9
Rutgers-Newark    9.000    17-9
Plymouth State    8.962    16-10
Southwestern    8.955    15-7
Chapman    8.929    10-4
Oswego State    8.920    18-7
Ohio Wesleyan    8.917    17-7

101-110
Brandeis    8.917    14-10
Elizabethtown    8.913    13-10
Averett    8.909    16-6
Coe    8.909    15-7
Brockport State    8.905    12-9
Huntingdon    8.889    12-6
Ramapo    8.875    14-10
Bridgewater State    8.875    15-9
Clarke    8.864    15-7
Milwaukee Engineering    8.857    14-7

111-120
Wilmington    8.852    20-7
Gettysburg    8.833    15-9
Gustavus Adolphus    8.833    16-8
Aurora    8.810    13-8
Pitt-Greensburg    8.783    15-8
Baptist Bible    8.778    14-4
Coast Guard    8.750    16-8
Union    8.727    14-8
SUNYIT    8.708    13-11
Springfield    8.667    10-14

[Greek Tragedy]

Ummm...I see that Stout's QOWI took a major hit and is now below La Crosse's.  Stout entered the week #1 in the West Region.  They obviously lost and I'm not sure how many spots they'll drop in the region. 

#4 Occidental and #3 Carleton also lost though.  #2 Puget Sound wins the AQ, as does #5 Whitewater.  #6 La Crosse loses to Whitewater in the semis.  #8 St. Thomas wins the AQ in the MIAC and #7 Wartburg loses in the IIAC semis.  So, I guess it won't hurt Stout too much.

[Ralph Turner]

Here are the Top Pool C candidates by the Regional Rankings:

Atlantic
1 Baruch 20-2 22-4   CUNYAC  Lost to York NY in Finals
2 William Paterson 17-6 18-7  NJAC  Pool A
3 New Jersey City 16-8 17-9  NJAC Lost to Ramapo in QtrF
4 SUNY-Farmingdale 16-5 19-5  Skyline  Pool A
5 Richard Stockton 15-7 17-8  NJAC Lost to Ramapo in Semis
NR York NY 15-9 15-13 CUNYAC Pool A    

East
1 St. John Fisher 20-1 22-3  E8  Pool A
2 Cortland State 21-3 22-4  SUNYAC  [b]Loss to SUNYIT in Semis[/b]
3 New York University 17-7 18-7  UAA
4 Utica 18-5 19-5  E8  Lost in Finals
5 Hamilton 16-4 20-4  LL Pool A

Great Lakes
1 Wooster 19-2 23-2 NCAC Lost in Finals
2 Calvin 11-1 20-5  MIAA  Lost in Finals
3 Hope 15-2 23-2  MIAA Pool A
4 Wittenberg 17-3 22-3  NCAC  Pool A
5 Baldwin-Wallace 19-4 21-4  OAC  Pool A
6 Carnegie Mellon 15-4 19-5  UAA Pool A
UR Bethany 20-4 23-4 Pres AC Pool B

Mid-Atlantic
1 York (Pa.) 22-3 24-3  CAC  Lost in CAC Semis
2 Lincoln 12-4 20-4   Pool B #1
3 Alvernia 19-3 21-4 PnAC  Pool A
4 Widener 19-4 20-4  MACC  Lost In Finals
5 Ursinus 18-5 19-6   CC Plays JHU on 2/26
6 Catholic 16-5 18-6  CAC  Pool A
7 Scranton 17-6 19-6   MACF Pool A
8 Albright 14-7 16-8  MACC  Lost to Messiah in Semis
NR Messiah  17-7 18-9  MACC Pool A

Midwest
1 Lawrence 20-0 22-0  MWC  Pool A
2 Augustana 19-4 21-5   CCIW  Lost to IWU in Semis
3 Transylvania 21-4 21-4  HCAC  Pool A
4 Carroll 18-3 20-3  MWC  Lost in Finals
5 Illinois Wesleyan 14-5 19-5  CCIW  Lost in Finals
6 North Central 14-5 20-5  CCIW  Pool A
7 Washington U. 14-5 17-7  UAA  Finished 2nd
8 Lakeland 17-4 21-6  LMC  Lost in LMC Semis

Northeast
1 Amherst 23-1 24-2  NESCAC Plays Tufts 2/26
2 Worcester Polytech 19-3 20-3  NEWMAC Plays MIT 2/26
3 Tufts 19-4 19-5  NESCAC Plays Amherst 2/26
4 Gordon 22-3 23-4  CCC  Lost in CCC Semis
5 Trinity (Conn.) 15-4 18-5  NESCAC  Lost in Semis to Tufts
6 Bates 15-5 19-5  NESCAC Lost in Semis to Amherst
7 Keene State 15-6 18-6  LEC Lost to Mass-Boston in Finals
8 Rhode Island College 16-8 16-8  LEC  Lost to Mass-Boston in Semis
9 Salem State 18-6 18-7  MASCAC  Lost to Bridgewater St in Semis
10 Williams 16-8 17-8 NESCAC  Did not qualify for Tourney

South
1 Mississippi College 22-1 24-1  ASC-East Plays at HPU on 2/26
2 Trinity (Texas) 16-3 20-6  SCAC  Loss to #8 seed Rhodes in SCAC QtrF. 3pt QOWI loss
3 Virginia Wesleyan 23-3 24-3  ODAC  Pool A
4 Randolph-Macon 19-5 22-5   ODAC Lost in Finals
T5. Fisk 9-4 14-10  Pool B candidate  Lost to Huntingdon in Semis
T5. Maryville (Tenn.) 14-6 19-6   Pool B #3 Lost to Huntingdon in GSAC Finals
7 Howard Payne 17-6 18-6  ASC-West Plays MissColl in Finals 2/26
8 Mary Hardin-Baylor 17-6 17-8  ASC-West Lost to HPU in Semis
NR Huntingdon 12-6 20-7 Pool B Defeated Fisk and Maryville TN in GSAC Tourney

West
1 UW-Stout 16-4 19-5  WIAC Lost in Finals
2 Puget Sound 15-2 20-4  NWC  Pool A
3 Carleton 17-4 20-5  MIAC Lost in Finals
4 Occidental 11-3 18-4  SCIAC  (CMS has the Pool A.)
5 UW-Whitewater 15-5 19-5  WIAC Pool A
6 UW-La Crosse 17-6 19-6  WIAC Lost to UW-W in semis
7 Wartburg 17-5 19-6  IIAC  Lost in IIAC Semis
8 St. Thomas 18-5 20-5  MIAC  Pool A
UR  CMS  SCIAC Pool A
UR Chapman 10-4 20-7 Pool B

As per Dren,  "Top 40 QOWI" and "Pool C teams" are glowing.  The QOWI's are one day old.

Some of my W-L's are incorrect, but it is too late to worry about those details.

IMHO, if you are glowing, then you are an at-large team and I think that the Pool B's and C's will be picked from these teams.  I await the remaining games, before I list my 22 at-large selections.

I see that Pat posted updated QOWI numbers.  I will clean this up tomorrow.

For quick-and-dirty selections, I will bet that they intersection of the sets containing the highest regionally ranked teams and the highest QOWI's give us the Pool C's.

[dren]

Lets try this again with the updated QoWI

1-10
Amherst     12.083     23-1 plays Tufts Sunday for pool A
Lawrence    11.682    22-0 pool A MWC champ
Tufts    11.167    20-4 plays Amherst Sunday for pool A
Worcester Polytech    11.130    20-3 plays MIT Sunday for auto
St. John Fisher    11.000    22-1 pool A Empire 8 Conference Champ
Mississippi College    11.000    24-1 plays Howard Payne sunday for pool A
Lincoln    10.688    12-4 pool B lock
Wittenberg    10.652    20-3 Pool A auto won NCAC championship
Gordon    10.560    22-3 completed play 2/23 in semis loss
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3 completed play 2/24 in semis loss

             
11-20
Virginia Wesleyan    10.481    24-3 Pool A ODAC champ
Augustana    10.478    19-4 completed play 2/24 lost in semis
Carnegie Mellon    10.474    15-4 UAA conf champ
Transylvania    10.444    23-4  pool A auto HCAC champ
Cortland State    10.440    22-3 completed play 2/24 lost in Semis
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3 lost in CAC semis
UW-Whitewater    10.304    18-5 Pool A auto WIAC Champ
William Paterson    10.240    19-6 pool A auto NJAC champ
Hope    10.211    17-2 pool A auto MIAA champ
North Central    10.095    16-5 pool A auto CCIW champ
             
21-30
Bates    10.091    16-6 lost in semi finals 2/25
Carroll    10.087    19-4 lost in MWC final
Baldwin-Wallace    10.077    22-4 OAC champ
Washington U.    10.050    14-6 lost in last game on Saturday
Wooster    10.042    21-3 lost in NCAC final
Carleton    10.000    18-5 lost in MIAC final
St. Thomas    9.960    20-5 Pool A auto MIAC
Alvernia    9.958    21-3 Pool A PAC auto
Baruch    9.958    21-3 lost in CUNYAC final
Illinois Wesleyan    9.952    15-6 lost in CCIW final
             
31-40
Puget Sound    9.944    16-2 Pool A NWC
Widener    9.920    20-5 Lost In Finals
Ursinus    9.917    19-5 Plays in finals on Sunday vs John Hopkins
Lakeland    9.905    17-4 Lost in semis of LMC
UW-La Crosse    9.880    18-7 Lost in semis of WIAC
SUNY-Farmingdale    9.875    19-5 Pool A auto SUNY
UW-Stout    9.870    18-5 lost in WIAC final
Randolph-Macon    9.840    19-6Lost in Finals
Fisk    9.800    10-5 pool B contender
Keene State    9.800    18-7 Lost to Mass-Boston in Finals
             
41-50
MIT    9.792    17-7 plays Worcester Polytech Sunday
Trinity (Conn.)    9.750    15-5 Lost in semis of NESCAC
Occidental    9.750    12-4 CMS has the Pool A
Calvin    9.733  13-2   lost in MIAA final
Utica    9.692    20-6 Lost in finals of Empire 8
Messiah    9.583    17-7 MACC champ pool A
Catholic    9.542    19-5 CAC champ pool A auto
Whitworth    9.542    18-6 Lost in MWC final
Howard Payne    9.520    19-6 Plays Mississippi College  on Sunday
New York University    9.500    17-7 lost last game on Saturday

[David Collinge]

For quick-and-dirty selections, I will bet that they intersection of the sets containing the highest regionally ranked teams and the highest QOWI's give us the Pool C's.

Q and I have just started a late-night discussion along these lines in CCIW Chat, from which I'll import my last post:

...which begs the question, what do the committees (regional then national) do with teams like Calvin (great in-region win %, relatively modest QoWI) and WashU. (great QoWI, mediocre in-region win %)?

I think any team that is both >10 QoWI and >.750 win % is pretty safe.  That's:
Gordon    10.560    22-3         0.880
Cortland State    10.440    22-3         0.880
York (Pa.)    10.400    22-3         0.880
Wooster    10.042    21-3         0.875
Trinity (Texas)    10.526    16-3         0.842
Tufts    11.167    20-4         0.833
Augustana    10.478    19-4         0.826
Carroll    10.087    19-4         0.826
Carleton    10.000    18-5         0.783

Agree/disagree/modify, Ralph?

[Ralph Turner]

David, I am fixin' to* go on to bed after this, but I will assume that there is almost no one on the next Regional Rankings who is going to jump in there and get a Pool C that we did not already identify.

I think that my reply #596 is almost there.  I think that my 18 Pool C picks are in that list.  Assumng no upsets tomorrow, Keene State, Lakeland and Bates and 2 more are definitely my bubble teams!

My pool B's are Lincoln, Bethany, Huntingdon and Chapman.

*"Fixin' to" is a voice of verb that is most equivalent to the aorist in Classic Greek.  It conveys the idea of "great intention".  In their inherent collective wisdom, Texans have tried to add this improvement (as well as a unique 2nd person plural pronoun) to the English language.

8) .  Have a good night!  See y'all tomorrow!