Pool C

[pabegg]

Rather than look at the QOWI as David has done, I took a look at things from the persepctive of the Regional Rankings. To compare across regions, I'm using a 50/50 mix of QOWI and RWP.

This is somewhat subjective, but here goes:

The first cutoff was at 39 teams: the top teams in each region as follows: (6 NE, 3 EA, 3 AT, 6 MA, 6 SO, 4 GL, 4 MW, and 7 WE). This includes the 3 ranked Pool B teams (Aurora, Maryville TN, and Lincoln). It includes teams from 27 Pool A conferences, including 2 from the following conferences: NESCAC, LEC, Skyline, CAC, ODAC, ASC, UAA, MIAC, and WIAC.

Barring a ridiculous run of upsets, all of these teams are in.

The next 9 are on the good side of the bubble, with spots currently that may disappear with upsets. In regional order:

NE 7 Brandeis
EA 4 NYU
EA 5 Rochester
SO 7 Centre
SO 8 McMurry
GL 5 Ohio Northern
GL 6 Wittenberg
GL (7) Westminster PA
MW 5 Elmhurst

Remember that the NYU/Brandeis winner and Rochester (if they win) will be the only Pool C contenders not to lose this week, so they would be at the top of this list (if not promoted upwards).

Note Westminster's presence here as the 7th Great Lakes team; barring a Maryville collapse in the GSAC tournament, Westminster may have no Pool B shot and may have to win out to get to Pool C.

Now if there are absolutely no upsets, this leaves us with the 19th Pool C bid, and the following teams:

NE 8 Bates
EA (6/7) Hamilton
EA (6/7) Utica
AT 4 NJCU
AT 5 Rowan
MA 7 Kings
GL (8 ) PSU Behrend
MW 6 Carthage
WE 8 UW LaCrosse
WE (9) Lewis & Clark

Bates is out of their tournament, so would have no more losses.
Hamilton hosts their own tournament but is a lower ranked team than St. Lawrence (EA 3).
Carthage must win tonight just to make the CCIW tournament, but with wins over Wheaton and Augustana (before losing the title game) they might be the only team capable of moving up.
UW LaCrosse hosts their WIAC SF with WE 4 UW Oshkosh.

[Pat Coleman]

Past practice has suggested that they won't go that deep in the Atlantic or Northeast at the expense of some other regions.

[kiltedbryan]

Ohio Northern loses tonight to Otterbein in the OAC quarterfinals, 52-51. 

ONU started the season 11-1, and ended it 8-6.  The loss tonight is almost assuredly going to cause them to be dropped from the regional rankings in Sunday's "secret" list.  Tonight's loss puts them way, way out on the bubble, I suspect.

They are now 14-7 in-region, for only a .667%.  I estimate their QoWI now as down to 9.619.  Both of those numbers are well below the "bubble team level."

[Mr. Ypsi]

I didn't spot any other such situations (though I didn't check carefully), but if Capital doesn't make it to the OAC finals, everyone who played them will drop 2 points per game - they would fall from .667+ to <.667.  That might be the final nail in ONU's coffin; haven't checked on JCU.

[mrmike88]

Somewhat piggybacking off the Ohio Northern situation...

All the D-1 media seems to be talking about lately when it comes to at-large bids is the "last ten" criteria, where the selection committee uses a team's record in its final 10 games as part of the evaluation process.  I'm pretty sure this doesn't "officially" come into play with awarding D-3 Pool C bids (according to the NCAA manual), but do you think that the committee considers how a team finishes the season as an addition criterion?

[sac]

Somewhat piggybacking off the Ohio Northern situation...

All the D-1 media seems to be talking about lately when it comes to at-large bids is the "last ten" criteria, where the selection committee uses a team's record in its final 10 games as part of the evaluation process.  I'm pretty sure this doesn't "officially" come into play with awarding D-3 Pool C bids (according to the NCAA manual), but do you think that the committee considers how a team finishes the season as an addition criterion?

For seeding perhaps, but they seem pretty strict about following their own criteria.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Officially no, so if so, you probably won't get anyone to admit it!

I wonder about a similar situation in the womens' tourney.  A week ago IWU was an absolute lock if they didn't get the AQ.  Then likely All-American Mallory Heydorn broke her hand.  Yesterday, they lost to North Central, which NONE of the top 5 teams in the conference had done.  If they rally and beat Millikin in the tourney semis, they should be fine, but if not they are suddenly very 'bubble-territory'.  While 'injury to key player' or 'record in last 5 games' are NOT official criteria, I can't help fearing that they may be decisive in any close decision.

Does anyone have any insights into what really happens 'at the table'?

I apologize for posting on the wrong board, but it seemed to flow from mrmike's post: the official criteria are clear, but to what degree (if any?) DO the selector's take into account such unofficial, subjective, criteria?

[Knightstalker]

I think the only way the NJAC puts two teams in the tournament is if NJCU wins friday night and there aren't too many upsets and Ramapo gets a C bid.

[systemfan86]

Wheaton beats Carthage to get in the CCIW tournament. Carthage was 6th in the Midwest and Wheaton was 8th - Grinnell was in between.  I presume that this drops Carthage outside the bubble, but does Wheaton need to win their first game in the CCIW tournament to move into consideration? Or would losing the second - and thus the need for a Pool C - cancel out any gain from a win?

As a Grinnell fan, I keep fighting the urge to think they could get a Pool C if they should lose the MWC tournament championship. My calculation says they'd end up at about 9.5 on QoWI which with Carthage and Wheaton's situation could still leave GC in the 6 slot in the MW. But everything else I'm reading says that while they might 'get to the table' for consideration against other regions' representatives, the MW region likely won't get past their #5 team in Pool C consideration.

Here's hoping it's not an issue and GC gets the AQ.

[Pat Coleman]

Pool C shocker news on front page.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

Pool C shocker news on front page.

I said this on the Bumblin B board as well but I am still mad! How does the NCAA make this large of an error and just realize it with days to go before selections are made! This may be the correct outcome but it is completely unacceptable that the NCAA would just realize this mistake today. You don't change the allocation of bids 4 days before selections!!! If I ever figure it out I will personally seek to disband the NCAA in its current form because the gentleman and ladies in Indy make the WorldCom board look intelligent

[David Collinge]

This is what I get when I presume to edit one of Pat's posts. 

[Pat Coleman]

Oh, good, I needed something to make me laugh.

Not, the math, but David's post. Who knew I was being prescient?

[Pat Coleman]

I posted a blog on this topic out front, too. If you guys have registered for the blog (easier than registering for the message board!) you might want to leave your thoughts out there, too, in public, where the number of comments can help underscore the severity of the situation.

[ChicagoHopeNut]

I posted a blog on this topic out front, too. If you guys have registered for the blog (easier than registering for the message board!) you might want to leave your thoughts out there, too, in public, where the number of comments can help underscore the severity of the situation.

I'd be happy to. More bad Corporations law analogies coming to the front page. (I am in Securities class so its just how I think now).