Pool C

[Mr. Ypsi]

Give me a little help please Pat....as usual I am in the wilderness.

I understand the D3 top 25 means nothing relative to the regional rankings.  I assume that what you published earlier was trying to mimic the ranking based on wins and quality of schedule..............so, why is Augie and Wash U ahead of LU in the regional rankings?

I know there is some sort of answer, I just never take the time to really figure out how the D3 mechanism works.

LU_NUT

I already answered on the MWC board feel free to follow-up if not clear.

[pabegg]

Give me a little help please Pat....as usual I am in the wilderness.

I understand the D3 top 25 means nothing relative to the regional rankings.  I assume that what you published earlier was trying to mimic the ranking based on wins and quality of schedule..............so, why is Augie and Wash U ahead of LU in the regional rankings?

I know there is some sort of answer, I just never take the time to really figure out how the D3 mechanism works.

LU_NUT

The earlier rankings were mine, not Pat Coleman's, so let me explain what I'm seeing.

My rankings atttempt to take into account the "numerical" components of the NCAA rankings, which are the regional winning percentage and the OWP/OOWP strength of schedule numbers. In this case, the top 3 in the Midwest are WashU, Lawrence, and Augustana. Lawrence has the best regional winning percentage, but WashU's schedule is much tougher, and Augustana's is somewhat tougher.

The real rankings factor in head-to-head and record versus ranked teams. Lawrence is 0-1 with a loss to UWSP, while Augustana is 4-1 (including a win over WashU) and WashU is 5-2. So Augustana ends up jumping over both Lawrence and WashU into first.

No real surprises here.

[pabegg]

OK, now that the regional rankings are out, I thought that I'd compare the actual results to what my numbers generated.

First of all, I got 55 of the 58 teams in the rankings; the three that I missed were St. Joseph's LI, Moravian, and PSU-Behrend, all of which were in my first honorable mention spot. I even got 23 schools in exactly the same spot, and many of the rest were just switched with the school next to them.

The only big miss was UW-Whitewater in 8th rather than 4th; looking at things closer, 4-8 in the West were all very tightly packed in my numbers.

As noted in a previous post, Augustana jumps to 1st in the Midwest due to their head-to-head win over WashU and their strong record versus ranked teams. These two factors are hard (impossible?) to quantify, which is why I haven't tried. Likewise, I assume that Rochester passes Plattsburgh in the East due to record against ranked teams (7-2 versus 2-0).

So the important thing here is that even with the changes to OWP/OOWP, the NCAA rankings (and hence the tournament selection) are highly predictable. I wasn't sure that this was still going to be true.

[SLP-O-8]

BV at #7 in West Region ouch.  I know they dont play the tough competition like the Wisconsin schools but with only 2 losses in the region that hurts.  Looks like they have to win the conference tournament to get the bid this year.  Only got Loras left in the regular that is in the regional rankings and the only team they have left with a good record. 

[Greek Tragedy]

Regional rankings are listed below and color coded to give everyone an idea of where their team sits, in terms of who you want to root for!  For example, in the Midwest Region, Carroll College would really want Wheaton, Chicago and Ill.Wes. to drop games so they can move up the Pool C ladder.  And in the West Region, Stevens Point needs Occidental to keep that Pool A bid in the SCIAC and hope that Cal. Lutheran drops games to jump ahead of them in the Pool C race...looks like that loss out there to Cal. Lutheran really hurts Point right now.

BOLD is conference leader (Pool A)
RED is Pool C Contender
BLUE is Pool B contender...may need some help on those!

Atlantic Region
1. Richard Stockton 15-5 15-4 .544 .518 (NJAC)
2. William Paterson 16-4 16-4 .516 .518 (NJAC)
3. Farmingdale State 16-4 15-3 .462 .481 (SKY)
4. York (N.Y.) 17-7 15-6 .472 .495 (CUNYAC) (tied with Brooklyn)
5. St. Joseph's (L.I.) 16-5 15-5 .415 .477 (SKY)

East Region
1. Rochester 17-3 16-3 .629 .573 (UAA)
2. Plattsburgh State 19-2 16-0 .505 .524 (SUNYAC)
3. Brockport State 16-6 13-4 .585 .532 (SUNYAC)
4. Stevens 19-3 17-2 .447 .532 (Empire 8 )
5. Nazareth 15-5 15-5 .606 .544 (Empire 8 )

Great Lakes
1. Capital 18-3 17-3 .536 .530 (OAC)
2. Wooster 18-3 11-2 .525 .495 (NCAC)
3. Hope 17-3 10-2 .501 .519 (MIAA)
4. Ohio Wesleyan 14-6 13-4 .545 .498 (NCAC)
5. Heidelberg 16-5 14-4 .507 .528 (OAC)
6. Penn State-Behrend 17-4 15-3 .425 .501 (AMCC) (tied with Lake Erie)

Middle Atlantic Region
1. Ursinus 19-2 16-1 .526 .518 (Centennial)
2. Gettysburg 17-3 15-2 .553 .521 (Centennial)
3. Widener 17-4 14-3 .553 .524 (MAC Commonwealth)
4. Messiah 15-6 14-5 .650 .519 (MAC Commonwealth) (tied with Albright and Lycoming)
5. DeSales 17-4 14-3 .522 .507 (MAC Freedom) (tied with Manhattanville)
6. Albright 14-5 14-4 .528 .544 (MAC Commonwealth) (tied with Messiah and Lycoming)
7. York (Pa.) 16-6 16-5 .557 .506 (CAC)
8. Moravian 17-5 16-5 .462 .511 (LAND) (Pool B)

Midwest Region
1. Augustana 17-4 16-4 .573 .571 (CCIW)
2. Washington U. 16-4 13-3 .690 .556 (UAA)
3. Lawrence 16-2 14-2 .519 .511 (MWC)
4. Wheaton (Ill.) 16-5 12-5 .565 .559 (CCIW)
5. Chicago 13-7 12-7 .641 .569 (UAA)
6. Illinois Wesleyan 13-8 12-6 .619 .555 (CCIW)
7. Carroll 14-5 13-5 .537 .492 (MWC)
8. Webster 15-5 13-5 .529 .475 (SLIAC)

Northeast Region
1. Amherst 21-2 21-1 .616 .539 (NESCAC)
2. Mass-Dartmouth 20-1 20-1 .558 .540 (LEC) (Tied with Rhode Island College)
3. Bowdoin 18-4 18-4 .565 .529 (NESCAC)
4. Trinity (Conn.) 18-5 16-4 .610 .543 (NESCAC)
5. Middlebury 17-5 16-4 .609 .513 (NESCAC)
6. Brandeis 16-4 15-4 .583 .584 (UAA)
7. Worcester Tech 16-5 15-4 .548 .539 (NEWMAC)
8. Rhode Island College 16-5 16-5 .537 .541 (LEC) (Tied with Mass-Dartmouth)
9. Emerson 18-3 17-3 .437 .511 (GNAC)
10. Bates 15-6 14-5 .567 .540 (NESCAC)

South Region
1. Centre 20-1 15-1 .474 .497 (SCAC)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 18-3 16-2 .486 .511 (ASC)
3. Guilford 16-4 15-4 .562 .530 (ODAC)
4. Maryville (Tenn.) 20-2 14-2 .487 .505 (GSAC)
5. Virginia Wesleyan 17-5 16-4 .533 .534 (ODAC)
6. DePauw 18-4 14-3 .478 .514 (SCAC)
7. Millsaps 19-3 14-2 .456 .492 (SCAC)
8. Randolph-Macon 17-4 12-4 .534 .542 (ODAC)

West Region
1. Occidental 18-3 11-1 .496 .535 (SCIAC)
2. St. Thomas 19-3 17-2 .487 .529 (MIAC)
3. UW-Platteville 17-4 15-3 .510 .554 (WIAC) (tied with Whitewater)
4. UW-Whitewater 18-3 16-3 .466 .545 (WIAC) (tied with Platteville)
5. Cal Lutheran 17-3 13-3 .504 .522 (SCIAC)
6. UW-Stevens Point 17-4 15-4 .566 .530 (WIAC)
7. Buena Vista 18-4 14-2 .464 .543 (IIAC)
8. Loras 17-5 14-3 .511 .547 (IIAC)


Yes OS, Moravian (Landmark Conference) is Pool B this season and next.  +1! 

[LogShow]

OK, now that the regional rankings are out, I thought that I'd compare the actual results to what my numbers generated.

First of all, I got 55 of the 58 teams in the rankings; the three that I missed were St. Joseph's LI, Moravian, and PSU-Behrend, all of which were in my first honorable mention spot. I even got 23 schools in exactly the same spot, and many of the rest were just switched with the school next to them.

The only big miss was UW-Whitewater in 8th rather than 4th; looking at things closer, 4-8 in the West were all very tightly packed in my numbers.

As noted in a previous post, Augustana jumps to 1st in the Midwest due to their head-to-head win over WashU and their strong record versus ranked teams. These two factors are hard (impossible?) to quantify, which is why I haven't tried. Likewise, I assume that Rochester passes Plattsburgh in the East due to record against ranked teams (7-2 versus 2-0).

So the important thing here is that even with the changes to OWP/OOWP, the NCAA rankings (and hence the tournament selection) are highly predictable. I wasn't sure that this was still going to be true.

Great work Pabegg!  Looks like your "crystal ball" worked pretty well.  +1

[Ralph Turner]

The regional rankings listed above only have 29 conferences of the 38 Pool A conferences.  If your conference is not listed, then look at your conference standings and check the conference policies on championships to see how you get a Pool A bid.

There are 58 teams listed in the Regional Rankings (The men have ranked one team for every playoff bid!)

I think that we are certain that the Pool C bubble-teams are on the bottom of those regions.

East Region -- no LL, no NEAC
Great Lakes -- no Pres AC
Mid-Atlantic -- no PnAC
Midwest -- no HCAC
Northeast -- no CCC, no NAC, no MASCAC.
West -- No NWC

Tip of the hat to Log Show for recognizing the NWC.

I completely overlooked it!   

[LogShow]

The regional rankings listed above only have 30 conferences of the 38 Pool A conferences.  If your conference is not listed, then look at your conference standings and check the conference policies on championships to see how you get a Pool A bid.

There are 58 teams listed in the Regional Rankings (The men have ranked one team for every playoff bid!)

I think that we are certain that the Pool C bubble-teams are on the bottom of those regions.

East Region -- no LL, no NEAC
Great Lakes -- no Pres AC
Mid-Atlantic -- no PnAC
Midwest -- no HCAC
Northeast -- no CCC, no NAC, no MASCAC.

What about the West Region-- no NWC

Or am I misreading your post?

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Old School, this is going to sound like a CRAZY request!

Being that I - and I assume others - are red/green color blind, the red and green you used... hard to tell the difference with. Could we use blue for one of them? You don't have to change both, just one of them .

That being said, and to ward off anyone questions, yes I do know which teams are Pool B and Pool C usually, but at quick clance, the color change helps.

I know... CRAZY! 

[magicman]

Ralph -- don't worry about OB's posts. He's just become a grumpy old man over the past couple months.

I am not old.

OxyBob

OxyBob,

I saw that picture of you at the Cal Tech game back in Dec. I think. The one where the only person in the stands was you. You didn't  look old, or grumpy then. More like middle aged. And with Occidental's fine season this year you've gotta be anything but grumpy.

[pabegg]

The regional rankings listed above only have 29 conferences of the 38 Pool A conferences.  If your conference is not listed, then look at your conference standings and check the conference policies on championships to see how you get a Pool A bid.

There are 58 teams listed in the Regional Rankings (The men have ranked one team for every playoff bid!)

I think that we are certain that the Pool C bubble-teams are on the bottom of those regions.

East Region -- no LL, no NEAC
Great Lakes -- no Pres AC
Mid-Atlantic -- no PnAC
Midwest -- no HCAC
Northeast -- no CCC, no NAC, no MASCAC.
West -- No NWC

Tip of the hat to Log Show for recognizing the NWC.

I completely overlooked it!   

I think we can go a little farther on this analysis.

Emerson, Farmingdale, York NY, York PA, PSU-Behrend, and Webster are all ranked, but have no shot at a Pool C. Their remaining games are all conference games in weak conferences, so even going unbeaten until losing the tournament final will not improve their rankings.

The top 11 Pool C bids would be in. That list looks to me like Trinity, Bowdoin, Middlebury, Brandeis, Brockport, the runners-up from Ursinus/Gettysburg, Guilford/Virginia Wesleyan, Washington/Rochester, Buena Vista/Loras, and the two runners-up from Platteville/Whitewater/Stevens Point.

The next 6 Pool C bids are the "in, but..." category, subject to losing their spot if someone gets upset. Those six look like Messiah, DePauw, Millsaps, Cal Lutheran, and the runners-up from William Paterson/Richard Stockton and Nazareth/Stevens.

The next tier are the teams that fall below the bubble: Rhode Island College, Bates, Albright, Randolph-Macon, Heidelberg, Ohio Wesleyan, and Wheaton. I'd also include unranked Oswego, Roanoke, and Oshkosh in this category, as they are likely the first off the list in their respective regions. Some of these schools have a real chance to move up, given the strength of their remaining conference schedule (such as Wheaton did last night). Others, maybe not.

Illinois Wesleyan, Carroll, and Chicago are even farther back. IWU and Chicago could move up with their difficult conference schedules, but I can't see Carroll going anywhere.

St. Joseph's LI isn't even on the radar; the Atlantic is incredibly weak this year and it's entirely possible that the NJAC runner-up starts the Pool C process at the top of the Atlantic list and never moves into the field.

[LogShow]

The NWC hasn't exactly been stellar this year.  The conference is competitive and every team plays each other tough, but no team has really separated themselves, they are all just beating each other up.  Which would be okay if the NWC was a power conference and also I don't think the NWC did a good job of playing "tough" nonconference schedules this year.

[Greek Tragedy]

Even though the Regional Rankings came out on Wednesday, I'm assuming those records are only through Sunday, correct.  Just wanted to make sure!

[pabegg]

Even though the Regional Rankings came out on Wednesday, I'm assuming those records are only through Sunday, correct.  Just wanted to make sure!

That's right.

[gordonmann]

PaBegg, OS: 

Really nice work.

I'm not convinced that Farmingdale State isn't alive for a Pool C big though, assuming they win out until the conference championship.

The selection committee seems to stick to its criteria pretty closely when awarding at-large bids.  They aren't going to withhold an at-large because someone is in a weak conference.  The Skyline got an at-large bid last year (Stevens) and the CUNYAC the year before (Baruch).

The NJAC teams continue to stumble with Richard Stockton and William Paterson both losing this week.  It's not inconceivable that Farmingdale State could move up a slot if that trend continues.  The Rams' OWP and OOWP isn't very impressive but a four-loss regional record would be.  And I don't think there's been a case yet under the expanded bracket where a region has received no at-large bids.

It's only a hypothetical but if the Rams are the first or second ranked team in the Atlantic...if they win out until the conference tournament...if the NJAC team in front of them (if any) wins the AQ and the Rams are the top Pool C candidate...they could still very well get an at-large bid.