Pool C

[Pat Coleman]

They've skipped over Atlantic C teams before ...

[Cyclone0205]

I know this usually doesn't play a part in selection, but say Farmingdale is the Top Pool C bid from the Atlantic.  Does their tourney win in 05-06 and loss to the eventual national champions, followed by Stevens' sweet 16 appearance last year and loss to the eventual national champions, weigh at all on the committee? I know me personally as a voter, after seeing the success in recent years, might be a little more willing to take a chance on Farmingdale this season. 


I preface this by saying I haven't studied enough who they'd be on line against from other regions, but I was just wondering if the recent good tournament showings could help the rams at all.

[Ralph Turner]

I know this usually doesn't play a part in selection, but say Farmingdale is the Top Pool C bid from the Atlantic.  Does their tourney win in 05-06 and loss to the eventual national champions, followed by Stevens' sweet 16 appearance last year and loss to the eventual national champions, weigh at all on the committee? I know me personally as a voter, after seeing the success in recent years, might be a little more willing to take a chance on Farmingdale this season. 


I preface this by saying I haven't studied enough who they'd be on line against from other regions, but I was just wondering if the recent good tournament showings could help the rams at all.

Past performance is not one of the criteria.

Trinity Women won the title in 2003 and did not get a Pool C bid the next year at 24-3 overall/22-3 in-region.

2006 Hardin-Simmons, a women's Final Four team, did not get a Pool C bid in 2007, 21-5 overall, 20-5 in-region after the Pool C Bids had been increased.

[Jacketfan2011]

Wow!  That's harsh..

[Cyclone0205]

Wow.  Is that..umm..troubling to anyone else?


Maybe its because I'm so used to the D1 selection process where certain teams, by name/performance, you know have better shots at at large bids...but to be a final four team, have a great..not good...great record...and not make it in the tournament?  I find it hard to believe you found that many teams that were better than that Hardin-Simmons team in the Pool C.

[Ralph Turner]

Wow!  That's harsh..

HSU Cowgirls had 3 losses to Howard Payne, the #1 seed in the tournament (West/South Region or overall), a season split with McMurry (which also got a playoff bid) and an overtime loss at Southwestern in the second game of the season!

Lose no game that you should not lose! 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Wow.  Is that..umm..troubling to anyone else?


Maybe its because I'm so used to the D1 selection process where certain teams, by name/performance, you know have better shots at at large bids...but to be a final four team, have a great..not good...great record...and not make it in the tournament?  I find it hard to believe you found that many teams that were better than that Hardin-Simmons team in the Pool C.

Well... in Division I, it also helps when you have a better schools to bids ratio, so teams with not-so-great winning percentages can get into the tournament.

There are over 400 schools at a bid ratio of 6.5/1... tougher selections in Division III.

[Pat Coleman]

For comparison, ratio in D-I is about 5:1.

[sac]

If I did the math right, Div I's ratio for the men's tournament is 4.738

For D3 that would mean a tournament of 88 teams.

[smedindy]

88 teams doesn't really work, though. I think 64 would be nice.

Or we could invite 'em all! It'd be a hoop bonanza!

[keith45]

Regional rankings are listed below and color coded to give everyone an idea of where their team sits, in terms of who you want to root for!  For example, in the Midwest Region, Carroll College would really want Wheaton, Chicago and Ill.Wes. to drop games so they can move up the Pool C ladder.  And in the West Region, Stevens Point needs Occidental to keep that Pool A bid in the SCIAC and hope that Cal. Lutheran drops games to jump ahead of them in the Pool C race...looks like that loss out there to Cal. Lutheran really hurts Point right now.

BOLD is conference leader (Pool A)
RED is Pool C Contender
BLUE is Pool B contender...may need some help on those!

Atlantic Region
1. Richard Stockton 15-5 15-4 .544 .518 (NJAC)
2. William Paterson 16-4 16-4 .516 .518 (NJAC)
3. Farmingdale State 16-4 15-3 .462 .481 (SKY)
4. York (N.Y.) 17-7 15-6 .472 .495 (CUNYAC) (tied with Brooklyn)
5. St. Joseph's (L.I.) 16-5 15-5 .415 .477 (SKY)

East Region
1. Rochester 17-3 16-3 .629 .573 (UAA)
2. Plattsburgh State 19-2 16-0 .505 .524 (SUNYAC)
3. Brockport State 16-6 13-4 .585 .532 (SUNYAC)
4. Stevens 19-3 17-2 .447 .532 (Empire 8 )
5. Nazareth 15-5 15-5 .606 .544 (Empire 8 )

Great Lakes
1. Capital 18-3 17-3 .536 .530 (OAC)
2. Wooster 18-3 11-2 .525 .495 (NCAC)
3. Hope 17-3 10-2 .501 .519 (MIAA)
4. Ohio Wesleyan 14-6 13-4 .545 .498 (NCAC)
5. Heidelberg 16-5 14-4 .507 .528 (OAC)
6. Penn State-Behrend 17-4 15-3 .425 .501 (AMCC) (tied with Lake Erie)

Middle Atlantic Region
1. Ursinus 19-2 16-1 .526 .518 (Centennial)
2. Gettysburg 17-3 15-2 .553 .521 (Centennial)
3. Widener 17-4 14-3 .553 .524 (MAC Commonwealth)
4. Messiah 15-6 14-5 .650 .519 (MAC Commonwealth) (tied with Albright and Lycoming)
5. DeSales 17-4 14-3 .522 .507 (MAC Freedom) (tied with Manhattanville)
6. Albright 14-5 14-4 .528 .544 (MAC Commonwealth) (tied with Messiah and Lycoming)
7. York (Pa.) 16-6 16-5 .557 .506 (CAC)
8. Moravian 17-5 16-5 .462 .511 (LAND) (Pool B)

Midwest Region
1. Augustana 17-4 16-4 .573 .571 (CCIW)
2. Washington U. 16-4 13-3 .690 .556 (UAA)
3. Lawrence 16-2 14-2 .519 .511 (MWC)
4. Wheaton (Ill.) 16-5 12-5 .565 .559 (CCIW)
5. Chicago 13-7 12-7 .641 .569 (UAA)
6. Illinois Wesleyan 13-8 12-6 .619 .555 (CCIW)
7. Carroll 14-5 13-5 .537 .492 (MWC)
8. Webster 15-5 13-5 .529 .475 (SLIAC)

Northeast Region
1. Amherst 21-2 21-1 .616 .539 (NESCAC)
2. Mass-Dartmouth 20-1 20-1 .558 .540 (LEC) (Tied with Rhode Island College)
3. Bowdoin 18-4 18-4 .565 .529 (NESCAC)
4. Trinity (Conn.) 18-5 16-4 .610 .543 (NESCAC)
5. Middlebury 17-5 16-4 .609 .513 (NESCAC)
6. Brandeis 16-4 15-4 .583 .584 (UAA)
7. Worcester Tech 16-5 15-4 .548 .539 (NEWMAC)
8. Rhode Island College 16-5 16-5 .537 .541 (LEC) (Tied with Mass-Dartmouth)
9. Emerson 18-3 17-3 .437 .511 (GNAC)
10. Bates 15-6 14-5 .567 .540 (NESCAC)

South Region
1. Centre 20-1 15-1 .474 .497 (SCAC)
2. Mary Hardin-Baylor 18-3 16-2 .486 .511 (ASC)
3. Guilford 16-4 15-4 .562 .530 (ODAC)
4. Maryville (Tenn.) 20-2 14-2 .487 .505 (GSAC)
5. Virginia Wesleyan 17-5 16-4 .533 .534 (ODAC)
6. DePauw 18-4 14-3 .478 .514 (SCAC)
7. Millsaps 19-3 14-2 .456 .492 (SCAC)
8. Randolph-Macon 17-4 12-4 .534 .542 (ODAC)

West Region
1. Occidental 18-3 11-1 .496 .535 (SCIAC)
2. St. Thomas 19-3 17-2 .487 .529 (MIAC)
3. UW-Platteville 17-4 15-3 .510 .554 (WIAC) (tied with Whitewater)
4. UW-Whitewater 18-3 16-3 .466 .545 (WIAC) (tied with Platteville)
5. Cal Lutheran 17-3 13-3 .504 .522 (SCIAC)
6. UW-Stevens Point 17-4 15-4 .566 .530 (WIAC)
7. Buena Vista 18-4 14-2 .464 .543 (IIAC)
8. Loras 17-5 14-3 .511 .547 (IIAC)


Yes OS, Moravian (Landmark Conference) is Pool B this season and next.  +1! 

I really thought Aurora would sneak in at 7 or 8 in the Midwest..if they win out, can they sneak in the NCAA's? They had a couple bad early season losses that really hurt I think..

[Mr. Ypsi]

keith45, Aurora is shooting for a pool B.  Since they didn't get listed in the regional rankings (but only two pool B teams did, and there are four slots), it is harder to assess where tey stand with the selection committee, but I'd say they have a very good shot.

[gordonmann]

They've skipped over Atlantic C teams before...

Yeah, but have they skipped over any region entirely since the bracket expanded to 59 teams?  I know it's only a couple of years, but I thought every region had at least one at-large the past two seasons.  It turns out I was wrong.

2007 (just one listed)
Northeast: Amherst
East: Brockport State
Mid-Atlantic: Hood
Atlantic: Stevens
Midwest: None
South: Va Wes
West: St. John's
Great Lakes: Hope

2006 (just one listed)
Northeast: Tufts
East: Cortland State
Mid-Atlantic: Widener
Atlantic: Baruch
Midwest: IWU
South: Trinity (Texas)
West: UW-Stout
Great Lakes: Calvin

[pabegg]

By my estimates, Aurora was #11 in the Midwest (behind Elmhurst and Defiance).

Using the same estimates, they're #4 for Pool B, just ahead of MSOE and Wisconsin Lutheran.

My guess is that one of the teams from the NAthC will make it, but not necessarily the tournament winner.

[pabegg]

I'm not convinced that Farmingdale State isn't alive for a Pool C big though, assuming they win out until the conference championship.

The selection committee seems to stick to its criteria pretty closely when awarding at-large bids.  They aren't going to withhold an at-large because someone is in a weak conference.  The Skyline got an at-large bid last year (Stevens) and the CUNYAC the year before (Baruch).

Stevens and Baruch were each much better placed nationally going into their conference tournaments in those years. Baruch was a complete lock for a Pool C bid in 2006, and Stevens was in good shape. My guess is that Farmingdale is at least a dozen teams lower in the analysis than Stevens was last year.

My point on conference strength is that schools in weak conferences are playing weak teams from here on out, which often means that their strength of schedule numbers will be falling. It's hard to make up ground when even a win may not help your rating.