Pool C

[pabegg]

Impact of last night's games on the Pool C picture:

Very little.

Mary Hardin-Baylor solidifies their position with the win. Have they clinched a spot yet? Not quite, as two losses puts them on the bubble.

Mississippi College and Coast Guard's very slim Pool C chances improved, but it won't be enough barring an incredible round of upsets of teams ahead of them.

Nobody else with Pool C chances played.

[sciacguru]

Occidental moves up to #2 in the West, while Cal Lutheran slips a little (they're now on the bubble while they probably could have clinched a bid with a win).

Does CLU's win over Gettysburg (#2 ranked region team, 20-3) hold any substance in the decision making for a Pool C bid, since that was not a regional win?

[pabegg]

Occidental moves up to #2 in the West, while Cal Lutheran slips a little (they're now on the bubble while they probably could have clinched a bid with a win).

Does CLU's win over Gettysburg (#2 ranked region team, 20-3) hold any substance in the decision making for a Pool C bid, since that was not a regional win?

Because it's not a regional game, it falls under the secondary criteria, not the primary criteria. Which means they could use it if they can't decide using the primary criteria.

[LogShow]

I wouldn't even know where to begin with the West Region. The only teams that are not shaky are Stevens Point, Occidental, and Whitewater (despite their blow out loss to Point).

Everyone else is on unstable ground. Honestly, if I were on the selection committee, I probably take the Automatic bids, and if they make it to the conference tourney final, either Whitewater or Point.

As a whole, I'm thinking 6 teams out of the West make it into the dance. Compared to other regions, and that's not a whole lot.

And yes, a lot of WIAC fans are going to claim that once again, the committee over looked the quality of our teams. I just don't think teams like Platteville and Oshkosh are very deserving of a Pool C bid, right now.

That can change in a hurry though, especially with this Saturday. Like I said, the West region is on shaky ground. If you want to see any other team get themselves into postition before tourney time, it will be Platteville. A loss on their home court all assures almost no chance of getting a Pool C bid.

So you are thinking that barring upsets in the conference tournaments the entire West region might only get about 2 at-large bids?

[Greek Tragedy]

West
1. UW-Stevens Point:  Def. La Crosse 89-62; plays at Platteville on Sat.
2. St. Thomas:  LOST at Concordia-Moorhead 67-57; plays at St. John's on Sat.
3. Occidental:  Def. Cal. Lutheran 67-63; plays at Whittier on Sat.
4. UW-Whitewater:  Def. Oshkosh 66-51; plays River Falls on Sat.
5. Cal Lutheran:  LOST at Occidental 67-63; plays at Redlands on Sat.
6. Buena Vista:  LOST at Central 73-71; plays Loras on Sat.
7. UW-Platteville:  Def. Eau Claire 75-58; plays Stevens Point on Sat.
8. UW-Oshkosh:  LOST at Whitewater 66-51; plays Superior on Sat.

So you are thinking that barring upsets in the conference tournaments the entire West region might only get about 2 at-large bids?

They may only get one.  Say the top teams in each conference win the conference tourneys.

St. Thomas:  MIAC
Stevens Point/Whitewater:  WIAC
Occidental:  SCIAC
Puget Sound:  NWC
Buena Vista:  IIAC

Who else could get an at-large bid at this time with at least one more loss.  The loser of Stevens Point and Whitewater will probably get a Pool C.  Loras (outside looking in) has to play Buena Vista tomorrow.  Cal Lutheran just lost to Occidental and for them to get a Pool C, they have to lose again.  No NWC team seems to be on the radar for a Pool C bid.  Unless Platteville wins out until the conference tourney, I don't see them having a chance...unless they beat Point twice (once tomorrow to end the regular season) or Point and Whitewater each.

[sac]

Just my opinion, but here is how I see it as of today, with teams in each category listed from top to bottom.  Let me know if I am missing anyone...


* Teams that are currently tied for 1st place in their league

Current conference leaders that would be lock Pool C's:

Amherst (NESCAC, NE)       
Washington U. (UAA, MW)   
Plattsburg St (SUNYAC, East)      
Mass-Dartmouth* (LEC, NE)       
Ursinus (CC, Mid Atl)   
Centre (SCAC, South)   
St. Thomas (MIAC, West)         
Capital (OAC, GL)         
Augustana* (CCIW, MW)         
UW- Stevens Point* (WIAC, West)         
Lawrence (MWC, MW)      
Occidental* (SCIAC, West)          
Mary Hardin-Baylor (ASC, South)         
Guilford (ODAC, South)
Hope (MIAA, GL)            
Wooster (NCAC, GL)      


Current conf. leaders that have a C chance, but certainly not a lock:

Worcester Poly (NEWMAC, NE)   
York, Pa (CAC, Mid-Alt)   
Buena Vista (IIAC, West)
Rhode Island* (LEC, NE)          
Illinois Wesleyan* (CCIW, MW)          
Cal Lutheran* (SCIAC, West)          
UW-Whitewater* (WIAC, West)      
UW-Oshkosh* (WIAC, West)      
Nazareth (E8, East)      
DeSales (MACF, Mid-Atl)         
Stevens (E8, East)         
St. Lawrence (LL, East)         
Farmingdale St (SKY, Atl)
William Paterson (NJAC, Atl)      
    

Current conf. leaders with no chance at a C:

Elms (NAC, NE)
Lake Erie* (AMCC, GL)
Penn St - Behrend* (AMCC, GL)
Emmanuel (GNAC, NE)         
Lycoming (MACC, Mid-Atl)         
Webster (SLIAC, MW)         
Puget Sound* (NWC, West)      
Defiance (HCAC, MW)         
Whitworth* (NWC, West)         
Moravian (Land, Mid-Atl)         
York, NY* (CUNYAC, Atl)         
Fitchburg State (MASCAC, NE)         
Alvernia (PnAC, Mid-Atl)
Bethany (PrAC, GL)
Roger Williams (CCC, NE)
Methodist* (USAC, South)
Brooklyn* (CUNYAC, Atl)
Baptist Bible (NEAC, East)
Ferrum* (USAC, South)
   

Teams not currently in the lead in their conf. who are C locks:

Mass-Dartmouth* (LEC, NE)          
Brandeis (UAA, NE)       
Rochester (UAA, East)          
Gettysburg (CC, Mid Atl)          
Trinity, CT (NESCAC, NE)          
Widener (MACC, Mid Atl)       
Augustana* (CCIW, MW)      
UW- Stevens Point* (WIAC, West)         
Occidental* (SCIAC, West)       
Virginia Wesleyan (ODAC, South)          
Middlebury (NESCAC, NE)          
Brockport St (SUNYAC, East)    


Next tier of C candidates -- on the bubble:

Bowdoin (NESCAC, NE)
Loras (IIAC, West)       
Rhode Island* (LEC, NE)          
Cortland State (SUNYAC, East)       
Millsaps (SCAC, South)          
Illinois Wesleyan* (CCIW, MW)          
Cal Lutheran* (SCIAC, West)          
UW-Whitewater* (WIAC, West)         
UW-Oshkosh* (WIAC, West)         
Chicago (UAA, MW)      
Bates (NESCAC, NE)
UW-Platteville (WIAC, West)   


Anyone not listed:

Very little chance for a Pool C bid - better win the AQ.

From Q's list a few days ago, we can strike our first casualty of the teams leading conferences with no C chance list as John Jay takes down York(Ny)

No York v York game this year, and we welcome John Jay at 13-15 as the first invitee to the dance.

[sac]

Is it to early to strike UW Oshkosh from the C list?

[Mr. Downtown]

No.

[LogShow]

Is it to early to strike UW Oshkosh from the C list?

No, not with 6 in-region losses.  If they don't get the AQ then they will have atleast 7 in-region losses.  I just don't see how you can give a at-large bid to them

[LogShow]

Anyone want to throw out a guess as to how many at-large bids the UAA gets?

[Titan Q]

Anyone want to throw out a guess as to how many at-large bids the UAA gets?

It depends who gets the AQ.  If Chicago wins it, the UAA will get 3 Pool C bids.  If Wash U or Brandeis are the Pool A team (meaning Chicago would drop one of their final two games - both home, vs Brandeis, vs Wash U), I think 2 Pool C's for the UAA.  I think Chicago is out with another loss.

Right now the UAA standings are:

Brandeis 9-3
Chicago 9-3
Wash U 9-3
Rochester 7-5

I see Brandeis, Wash U, and Rochester as Pool C locks and Chicago, with 7 in-region losses, on the bubble...with regional loss #8 bursting the bubble. 

[LogShow]

I know they play in a tough league, but 7 in-region losses sure seems like a lot to be considered for Pool C.

[Titan Q]

I know they play in a tough league, but 7 in-region losses sure seems like a lot to be considered for Pool C.

In-region winning % is only one of the primary criteria.  Chicago is great is one of the other biggies - strength of schedule.  OWP = .601 (13th in country).   

Illinois Wesleyan is basically in the same boat - 7 in-region losses, but the #6 OWP in the nation (.617).  5 of IWU's 7 regional losses are to conference leaders:

@ Wash U (1st, UAA)
@ Chicago (1st, UAA)
@ Occidental (1st, SCIAC)
vs Augustana (1st CCIW)
@ Augustana (1st CCIW)

The new OWP/OOWP system should keep teams like Chicago and IWU at least on the bubble, whereas with QOWI they'd be dead.

[pabegg]

I'm a little late with my daily update on Pool C status, given that games have started today, but here goes:

Brandeis improved their Pool C situation a little; I believe that they have clinched a Pool C bid with only two games left; WashU slips behind Brandeis in Pool C positioning, but is still the most likely Pool A winner from the UAA.

Stevens drops from the good side of the bubble to the bad side, replaced by Bates.

Chicago moves up but not yet into the field. With 1-1 against WashU and Brandeis, can they move into the field? (At 2-0, they've got a Pool A bid).

Oswego kissed their Pool C chances goodbye.

[LogShow]

I know they play in a tough league, but 7 in-region losses sure seems like a lot to be considered for Pool C.

In-region winning % is only one of the primary criteria.  Chicago is great is one of the other biggies - strength of schedule.  OWP = .601 (13th in country).   

Illinois Wesleyan is basically in the same boat - 7 in-region losses, but the #6 OWP in the nation (.617).  5 of IWU's 7 regional losses are to conference leaders:

@ Wash U (1st, UAA)
@ Chicago (1st, UAA)
@ Occidental (1st, SCIAC)
vs Augustana (1st CCIW)
@ Augustana (1st CCIW)

The new OWP/OOWP system should keep teams like Chicago and IWU at least on the bubble, whereas with QOWI they'd be dead.

Interesting, thanks for the info Q!  I forgot about the other criteria