Pool C

[Greek Tragedy]

It really surprised me to see that Platteville stayed at the #7 spot in the West Region even though Buena Vista and Cal. Lutheran, who were both directly ahead of Platteville, LOST, while Platteville topped the #1 team in the regional ranking, Point...and went 2-0.

With that said, there is no way that Platteville is getting a Pool C bid.  There are two WIAC teams and two SCIAC teams ahead of them.  Platteville lost to Eau Claire in the first round of the WIAC tourney.  So, at the very least, you'll have one WIAC team and one SCIAC team ahead of Platteville in the pecking order.  If St. Thomas loses or Loras tops Buena Vista in the IIAC final (if things go as planned), then Platteville would be about the 4th or 5th team in line in the West region alone.  

I'm pretty sure both Whitewater and Point secured spots.

[pg04]

pabegg--In your opinion what does Brockport St. got to do to get Pool C bid if they dont get AQ by winning SUNY tourney? I thought getting to finals with Plattsburgh would do it, am I right?

Yes, I would like some analysis on this as well... Unfortunately I haven't followed this as closely as I usually do but does Brockport State have to win the SUNYAC to get in? 

Practically speaking, yes.  I think that 13th is too close to the bubble.  That is five spots into the bubble.  Rochester is the first C off the table from the East Region at this minute.

Thanks Ralph, I guess they'll just have to do it the hard way.  The loss at home at the end of the season is looking like a killer. 

[David Collinge]

Pool C update for Wednesday night

We also know that the WIAC Pool A bid will go to Stevens Point or Whitewater while the other will get a very early Pool C bid.

For Cal Lutheran's continued chance at a Pool C (if AQ doesnt work out), I think they are siliently cheering for Point to run the table.  Both UWSP and UWWW are in regardless, but CLU will take all the help possible.

After tonight, their cheering is probably best directed elsewhere. Either UW school gets in ahead of them as a Pool C, so they really don't care who wins the WIAC. Better rooting options in the west would be Buena Vista or St. Thomas.

Yes, but Cal Lu beat Stevens Point back on New Year's Day, and if Point ends up in Pool A, it's gotta help Cal Lu's Pool C chances at least a little (in OWP if nothing else).  I think that was probably sciacguru's line of reasoning.

[pabegg]

pabegg--In your opinion what does Brockport St. got to do to get Pool C bid if they dont get AQ by winning SUNY tourney? I thought getting to finals with Plattsburgh would do it, am I right?

Sorry, I missed this earlier on my way out the door.

I don't think Brockport can guarantee themselves a Pool C bid. Depending on the number of upsets of teams ahead of them nationally, they could be anywhere from 95% certain to 5% on Sunday night.

As it stands, Rochester will move off the Pool C board very early, which means Brockport will be in consideration for a long time, which can only help.

[Greek Tragedy]

Yes, but Cal Lu beat Stevens Point back on New Year's Day, and if Point ends up in Pool A, it's gotta help Cal Lu's Pool C chances at least a little (in OWP if nothing else).  I think that was probably sciacguru's line of reasoning.

As a Pointer fan, that was such a painful loss to listen to! 

[Greek Tragedy]

Oh yeah,

If I have time tomorrow, I'll try to put up this week's regional rankings and results as well...then Ralph or someone with power can edit it if needed.

[Ralph Turner]

Oh yeah,

If I have time tomorrow, I'll try to put up this week's regional rankings and results as well...then Ralph or someone with power can edit it if needed.

Glad to help...

I think that the Pool C board has been even better this year.

Pabegg has been a big help with his number-crunching!  As I have said before, his numbers are unofficial, but I think that we are seeing the last few teams at the table.

I don't think that there will be any surprises when the final list comes down.  I will be interested in how the committee arrived at the final list.

This thing is getting more transparent every  season.

Take home lesson...

if you can point to one game that you should not have lost, then that was probably the game that did you in.

[pabegg]

Yeah, glad to help on this.

I think it's always the last three Pool C's that kind of get us (the first 14 are no-brainers in retrospect).

Sometimes it comes down to how the committee looks at a great record from a week conference (usually no, but not always). Sometimes it comes down to a team with an really tough schedule that looks like they have too many losses to make it, but they do. And sometimes it comes down to a judgment call about the relative merits of the different rating criteria, as it is apparent that different regions use different judgments.

But Ralph is right; except for my UAA boys, everyone with a Pool C shot lost in the conference tournament and so this is all a second chance to keep playing (just ask 2007 national champion Amherst).

[sciacguru]

Yes, but Cal Lu beat Stevens Point back on New Year's Day, and if Point ends up in Pool A, it's gotta help Cal Lu's Pool C chances at least a little (in OWP if nothing else).  I think that was probably sciacguru's line of reasoning.

Exactly, thanks Dave.

Yes, but Cal Lu beat Stevens Point back on New Year's Day, and if Point ends up in Pool A, it's gotta help Cal Lu's Pool C chances at least a little (in OWP if nothing else).  I think that was probably sciacguru's line of reasoning.

As a Pointer fan, that was such a painful loss to listen to! 

But a great game to watch!!!

[with age comes?]

New to this board but find it very interesting.. pabegg you seem to be the resident expert.. St Lawrence just jumped ahead of Bport in the east regional rankings, if they both lose in the tournament finals is it possible for both of them to get pool c bids?  St Law is at home and will probably win their tournament but Bport has to travel to the fartherst corner of the state and beat Plattsburgh (most likely) to win their tournament and has a much more difficult road.

[pabegg]

New to this board but find it very interesting.. pabegg you seem to be the resident expert.. St Lawrence just jumped ahead of Bport in the east regional rankings, if they both lose in the tournament finals is it possible for both of them to get pool c bids?  St Law is at home and will probably win their tournament but Bport has to travel to the fartherst corner of the state and beat Plattsburgh (most likely) to win their tournament and has a much more difficult road.

One of the more interesting questions out there is who gets ranked higher in the situation you just outlined. If St. Lawrence loses the final to Vassar or Hamilton, will they be able to stay ahead of Brockport losing to Plattsburgh?

My guess is no, that their current margin is so small that if St. Lawrence gets upset, then they will drop behind Brockport who will, after all, lose to a Plattsburgh team that no one in the region has beaten.

As I've commented elsewhere, Brockport would be a true bubble team in this scenario. I can't imagine a scenario where Brockport would be in the first 12 Pool C bids, so they'll be fighting for one of the last 5. That doesn't leave much room for St. Lawrence behind them.

With enough non-upsets in conference tournaments, both could get in. But if schools like Wooster or St. Thomas or WPI or Hope or Augustana go down, each of those could take a Pool C bid off of the table, and leave Brockport fighting for 1 or 2 spots instead of 5.

[pbrooks3]

pabegg, the SCAC tournament begins tomorrow. Centre won the regular season and has the 23-game winning streak. What do you see happening if Centre doesn't get the automatic qualifier by winning the SCAC tournament?  Is there any scenario where the SCAC gets at least one Pool C bid this year?

[pabegg]

pabegg, the SCAC tournament begins tomorrow. Centre won the regular season and has the 23-game winning streak. What do you see happening if Centre doesn't get the automatic qualifier by winning the SCAC tournament?  Is there any scenario where the SCAC gets at least one Pool C bid this year?

Centre is in, no matter what.
If Millsaps avoids the dreaded first round upset, that should be enough to get them in.
Certainly a Centre-Millsaps final will be between 2 schools that know they are in the tournament.
Anyone else? Maybe a longshot chance for DePauw if they can upset Centre in the SF and lose to Millsaps in the final, but not much of one.

So 90% chance of one Pool C bid, <1% chance of two.

[golden_dome]

Ralph,
  I originally put this post on the women's ASC board but thought I would put it here as well for discussion.

   I had posted earlier in the week that I didn't think the OWP/OOWP was a big deal right now for isolated conferences but obviously I was wrong. I was looking over this year's regional rankings compared to last year and the new RPI is having a big impact in my opinion.

   Last year, in most cases teams were usually ranked according to regional winning percentage with a few exceptions here and there, but usually teams were within a loss of one another. This year there are several cases in which teams with two more losses, and sometimes even three more regional losses, are being ranked ahead of teams with better records. That did not happen much last year unless one team had played far more regional games.

    I would like to know what everyone thinks so far, but the system seems to have added a good bit more weight to regions with more teams. For example, teams in the Northeast like Brandeis-Middlebury-Trinity (Conn) are RPI Top 20 nationally with five regional losses. Mississippi College and DePauw are outside the Top 50 with five regional losses with SOS slightly above .500.

    I'm really not trying to call those teams out, I'm sure they are worthy, but asking some questions and trying to get some feedback. Are the schedules of the Northeast teams that much harder in reality, or are the OWP/OOWP numbers boosted by having plenty of teams to cherry pick with good records. Just hard to believe that an average  difference  in OWP/OOWP of .507 to .560 would be 30-40 places nationally in the Pool C bids.

    To me it looks like the new system is giving equal weight to OWP - OOWP - regional winning %, which makes your actual record just a small fraction of the ranking criteria, or at least much smaller than years past.

[Ralph Turner]

Please remember that pabegg's RPI is "his number".  The criteria are explicitly outlined as in-region won-loss and the OWP/OOWP.  Everything that we have heard about the two is that the W-L and the OWP/OOWP are two different and distinct criteria as considered by the committee.