Pool C

[pabegg]

Here's my list

Locks, no Pool A chance

Rochester
Wooster
Brandeis
Occidental

Locks if they don't win Pool A

Plattsburgh State
Hope
Capital
Ursinus
Gettysburg
Widener
Augustana
Washington U.
Lawrence
Amherst
Mass-Dartmouth
Worcester Tech
Bowdoin
Centre
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Guilford
Virginia Wesleyan
Millsaps
UW-Whitewater
St. Thomas
UW-Stevens Point

(I realize that this is 22 locks, but there is no statistical possibility of that many upsets).

Lock if loses final, probable if loses SF

Middlebury
Trinity CT

Probable if loses

Richard Stockton won Pool A
William Paterson lost
Heidelberg
Rhode Island College
Buena Vista
Loras

Possible

Brockport State
Wheaton (Ill.)
Cal Lutheran
UW-Platteville

Possible if loses

Penn State-Behrend
DeSales
Chicago
Emerson lost
Elms Won Pool A

Longshot

St. Lawrence
Stevens
Albion
York (Pa.)
Elmhurst
Randolph-Macon
Mississippi College
Bates

[algernon]

I've thrown out Aurora (above), since they'll get a Pool B, and thrown in UMass-Dartmouth and Worcester Tech, since I overlooked them.

Your list makes sense to me, pabegg.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Pool C MAY be losing another slot - Lawrence down by 13 at the half.

[Just Bill]

I've thrown out Aurora (above), since they'll get a Pool B, and thrown in UMass-Dartmouth and Worcester Tech, since I overlooked them.

Your list makes sense to me, pabegg.

It likely doesn't affect anything, but Aurora and Lakeland are going to OT in the NATHC final.

[smedindy]

Well, it affects their psyche. 

[Just Bill]

#6 Lakeland defeats #1 Aurora in oT 82-77.  Lakeland won the NATHC Tourney title by winning three straight overtime road games.  I wonder if that's EVER happened before.

[Hugenerd]

Chicago wins the UAA by beating WashU 74-66.

[jagluski]

Another Pool C bid is spoken for.  Chicago beats Wash U 74-66 to take the UAA's Pool A bid.

[Titan Q]

Here's my list

Locks, no Pool A chance

Rochester
Wooster
Brandeis
Occidental

Locks if they don't win Pool A

Plattsburgh State
Hope
Capital
Ursinus
Gettysburg
Widener
Augustana
Washington U.
Lawrence
Amherst
Mass-Dartmouth
Worcester Tech
Bowdoin
Centre
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Guilford
Virginia Wesleyan
Millsaps
UW-Whitewater
St. Thomas
UW-Stevens Point

(I realize that this is 22 locks, but there is no statistical possibility of that many upsets).

Lock if loses final, probable if loses SF

Middlebury
Trinity CT

Probable if loses

Richard Stockton won Pool A
William Paterson lost
Heidelberg
Rhode Island College
Buena Vista
Loras

Possible

Brockport State
Wheaton (Ill.)
Cal Lutheran
UW-Platteville

Possible if loses

Penn State-Behrend
DeSales
Chicago
Emerson lost
Elms Won Pool A

Longshot

St. Lawrence
Stevens
Albion
York (Pa.)
Elmhurst
Randolph-Macon
Mississippi College
Bates

Keep in mind, pabegg only takes two of the five primary criteria into account in his calculations and Pool C projections - in-region winning % and strength of schedule.  These certainly seem to be the two that carry the greatest weight, but the other three (head-to-head, common opponents, record vs regionally ranked teams) are definitely used.

He has Wheaton as a "possible."  As I posted earlier, there is no way Wheaton gets in before Illinois Wesleyan - after last night, IWU has now defeated Wheaton 3 times this year.  I can guarantee you that IWU's 3-0 head-to-head vs Wheaton will put the Titans ahead of the Thunder in the final ranking tomorrow.

I don't think the CCIW is going to get a Pool C bid if IWU loses at Augustana tonight in the conference tournament title game, but pabegg's order is definitely off - the CCIW's Pool C teams will be ranked IWU #1, Wheaton #2, Elmhurst #3.

[larry_u]

Lawrence beats Carroll 98-95 in OT securing their A bid and only 1 team from the MWC

[pabegg]

Bob is probably right on the CCIW situation. With the losses by Aurora, Webster, and Elmhurst, IWU probably passes all of these three; Chicago passes Wheaton for 4th. At this point IWU would probably be ahead of Wheaton for 5th.

Unfortunately for both of them, IWU would still have very little shot. So I would downgrade Wheaton and add Illinois Wesleyan to the longshot list.

[magicman]

Plattsburgh State wins the SUNYAC Championship defeating Oswego State 89-75. Plattsburgh completes a perfect season in the conference with a 19-0 mark as well as an undefeated season on their home court at 12-0. They stretch their record to 26-2 and have now won 19 straight games. Only perfect regional record in the country at 23-0.

[pabegg]

Updated list

Here's my list

Locks, no Pool A chance (5)

Rochester
Wooster
Brandeis
Washington U.
Mass-Dartmouth

Loser of Pool A game is a lock (3)

Ursinus or Gettysburg
Centre or Millsaps
UW-Whitewater or UW-Stevens Point

Locks if they don't win Pool A (10)

Hope
Capital
Augustana
Amherst
Bowdoin
Worcester Tech
Mary Hardin-Baylor
Guilford
Virginia Wesleyan
St. Thomas

Lock if loses final, good chance if loses SF (2)

Middlebury
Trinity CT

Good chance (2)

Occidental
William Paterson

Good chance if loses (2)

Heidelberg
Buena Vista or Loras

Some chance (5)

Brockport State
Cal Lutheran
UW-Platteville
DeSales
Emerson

Little chance (10)

St. Lawrence
Stevens
Albion
York (Pa.)
Elmhurst
Randolph-Macon
Mississippi College
Bates
Illinois Wesleyan
Wheaton (Ill.)

I'm starting to get a little nervous on some of the count numbers; there may be too many locks on the list.

[smedindy]

The tension is mounting. And we have to wait until MONDAY! 

I have an 8AM CST conference call with a client, then a metric ton of work to do for another. Sigh...

[All-around]

How many Pool C bids are available and then how many by region?