MBB: Conference of New England

[D3ball1845]

No chance, I don't think. Teams have to be in the upper half of their regions, especially the Northeast, to have a reasonable chance. Yes, there will be plenty of movement, but as noted... the SOS numbers are pretty bad.

BTW - quality wins means nothing. That is your opinion on those wins, but they don't fit with the criteria that the NCAA uses. Those games will be used if there are common opponents, but quality wins really is nothing in this equation. Too subjective. Case in point, I would argue half of your quality wins are not quality wins at all: Salem St., Regis, RIC, Conn College). They aren't bad teams, but they are not quality wins.

Endicott's SOS: .499. Not horribly below .500, but anywhere around or below .500 is a red-alert for at-large hopes... thus why they weren't ranked.

Roger William's SOS: .456. Bad number.

Nichols' SOS: .460. Same. Bad.

Two things to keep in mind... if your WL% is .667 or below, no chance (and honestly, below .700 is dangerous) and if the SOS is below .500 (or really .520 or lower) and the chances are drying up.

Thank you for the insight Dave. I just feel the CCC should get more recognition. I understand the teams at the bottom of the conference kill the SOS for the top teams in this conference. However, going back to your point on common opponents, one could compare Roger Williams and Keene State (who was recently ranked 10th in the Northeast region).

They have played three common opponents (UNE, UMD, and RIC). RWU (18-4) has four wins against these opponents, while Keene State (15-7) has one win and three losses (including a blowout loss to UNE, who is a bottom 3 CCC team). Additionally, RWU is 1-0 versus the NE regionally ranked opponents while Keene State is 1-2. Even with Keene State's SOS of .570, RWU has an undefeated record versus three common opponents, a better overall record, and a better record versus NE regionally ranked opponents. I understand that the CCC is one of the weaker conferences overall, but how could one ignore a Keene State 95-69 loss to UNE when RWU has beat them twice.

Obviously, this is just one comparison that I have found, but I think it demonstrates some evidence that eventually the CCC should be taken more seriously. Is the CCC ever destined to get an at-large bid? Or is the only chance for this to happen is if the top teams compensate for the bottom of the conference teams by scheduling stronger non-conference play?

[warriorcat]

Just so you have the numbers right Keene is actually 2-2 vs NE ranked teams (wins over ECSU and UM Dartmouth; losses to UM Dartmouth and Middlebury) as well as a win over regionally ranked SUNY Oneonta.  There is no question that they have multiple bad losses but that is why they are ranked behind teams with similar records despite having a relatively high SOS. In the end even if they win out to end the season and then lose in the LEC tournament they will be hard pressed to get a Pool C slot.

[PeterEscobar]

Endicott set up their non-conference as good as they possibly could.  No one will fault them for a loss to Babson and they beat Middlebury which just looks better and better.  Even dropping a game or two to Nichols and RWU wouldn't be terrible, but Bridgewater and WNEC killed them - you can't have that many losses from this conference (especially since you're going to get at least one more if you're in Pool C to begin with).

I think, with the games left, there's a decent chance they can keep at .500 SOS, but they're already out of the Pool C running.  They have to win the tournament.

As you said, if their was ever a year that a CCC team was going to be in the argument it would be this year with the schedule that Endicott put together. They're in a tough spot, though, as it's got to be tough for them to get more than a few quality games in non-conference. If you're a middle of the pack NESCAC school, for instance, what's the incentive for playing Endicott? Beat them and it's "expected" and probably doesn't improve your SOS enough to make the risk of losing to them worth it.

[D3ball1845]

It's true, why would any NEWMAC or NESCAC team schedule a team like Endicott, RWU, or Nichols in the non-conference play? So, essentially the CCC will never be a conference with an at-large bid unless they somehow figure out how to schedule tougher non-conference opponents. That's unfortunate but reality.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

It's true, why would any NEWMAC or NESCAC team schedule a team like Endicott, RWU, or Nichols in the non-conference play? So, essentially the CCC will never be a conference with an at-large bid unless they somehow figure out how to schedule tougher non-conference opponents. That's unfortunate but reality.

No, the CCC leaders are key schedules for the top teams, because, if you pick the right team, you're guaranteed a 20 win squad.  Remember, the SOS is a mixture of opponent's winning percentage and an opponent's opponent's winning percentage, so a top CCC team will have a good winning percentage much of the time - and the less than stellar opponents they have in conference will figure less in that number.  I suspect that's exactly why Endicott got such good games this year.

Across the country, teams are jealous of the options top NE teams have in scheduling, because it's just so much easier to mess with the numbers.

The CCC SOS will go up when the teams at the bottom win games.  That's just it.  At the very least, if Curry can schedule good teams to lose to, rather than terrible ones, that would help as well.

I've been following the CCC since 1999-2000; there has never been even a contender for Pool C; until the teams at the bottom can improve their talent, not much will change.  You just have to go out, schedule good competition, and win those games.

As I said, Endicott would be in the Pool C mix if they hadn't dropped so many conference games.  Frankly, if you can't get through the CCC with just one or two losses, you're not a Pool C team anyway.

We know Endicott is really good because of what they did in the tourney last year (and the win over Middlebury, to some extent), but they slipped up too much.  There are really three teams in the CCC that I think would be tough outs against the right team in the NCAA tournament, but that's a real rarity - maybe the first time it's ever happened in the CCC.

[D3HoopJunkie]

As an Albertus supporter I completely agree with everything being said on this board over the last couple days. The GNAC is very much like the CCC. Simply 1 bid leagues. As unfair as it may sound to some, the NCAA when selecting must strictly look at the numbers. There is no "eye test" at the D3 level. In terms of the GNAC, last season was a perfect example. Johnson and Wales had a tremendous team and an excellent season that culminated into a great NCAA tournament run. 2nd place GNAC finisher Albertus Magnus had no chance of getting in (rightfully so due to SOS and other factors) yet if they made the tournament they would have no doubt been able to compete and possibly win a few games if placed in the right opening weekend pod but the bottom half of these conferences really hurt the teams up top. It is what it is as they say

But I do feel your pain D3ball1845!!

[joehakes]

Gordon got in with a Pool C bid in 2006.  That was the first Pool C bid in any sport in the conference, I believe.

[D3ball1845]

I'm glad someone can relate to me on this frustration (D3 Hoop Junkie). This is my second season as a RWU fan, but I really love D3 basketball. As Ryan Scott stated, I too think this year is the first time the CCC has 3 legitimate teams that could compete in the NCAAs. But in a sense, conferences like the GNAC, CCC, and NECC, MASCAC, NAC, etc. will always be 1 bid teams until they prove themselves against top teams from conferences like the NEWMAC and NESCAC. Again, going back to what Ryan Scott said regarding scheduling, how far in advance do teams from the NEWMAC and NESCAC schedule their non-conference games? If it's season by season does that mean teams like RWU and Nichols will likely get more chances against better non-conferences opponents next season like Endicott did this season?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

As an Albertus supporter I completely agree with everything being said on this board over the last couple days. The GNAC is very much like the CCC. Simply 1 bid leagues. As unfair as it may sound to some, the NCAA when selecting must strictly look at the numbers. There is no "eye test" at the D3 level. In terms of the GNAC, last season was a perfect example. Johnson and Wales had a tremendous team and an excellent season that culminated into a great NCAA tournament run. 2nd place GNAC finisher Albertus Magnus had no chance of getting in (rightfully so due to SOS and other factors) yet if they made the tournament they would have no doubt been able to compete and possibly win a few games if placed in the right opening weekend pod but the bottom half of these conferences really hurt the teams up top. It is what it is as they say

But I do feel your pain D3ball1845!!

We're looking at Ramapo being a bubble team with their SOS if they don't win the NJAC tournament - it affects everybody for sure.  You gotta schedule well AND win.  With 416 teams, 64 is a pretty small percentage - even moreso when you take 43 automatic bids out of it.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

I'm glad someone can relate to me on this frustration (D3 Hoop Junkie). This is my second season as a RWU fan, but I really love D3 basketball. As Ryan Scott stated, I too think this year is the first time the CCC has 3 legitimate teams that could compete in the NCAAs. But in a sense, conferences like the GNAC, CCC, and NECC, MASCAC, NAC, etc. will always be 1 bid teams until they prove themselves against top teams from conferences like the NEWMAC and NESCAC. Again, going back to what Ryan Scott said regarding scheduling, how far in advance do teams from the NEWMAC and NESCAC schedule their non-conference games? If it's season by season does that mean teams like RWU and Nichols will likely get more chances against better non-conferences opponents next season like Endicott did this season?

Let me correct on thing... as Ryan has indicated, the top teams in the conference don't have to prove as much as you think. It is the middle and BOTTOM of the conference that HAS to improve. A conference is only as good as it's bottom and the SOS numbers for the top teams are relient on the bottom teams. Plain and simple. So no, Endicott, RWU, Nichols don't have to prove anything in the grand scheme of things against the NESCAC and NEWMAC. Sure, wins are nice and it will bolster their resume, but they can only control so much of their SOS when their conference is dragging it down (this is NOT an excuse to schedule poorly out of conference either).

Ryan's point, which is dead on, is that Endicott didn't do it's job in conference. You can schedule the toughest non-conference schedule going, but if you trip up with the middle and bottom of your conference - picking up extra losses - than you have screwed yourself especially in a weak conference. Conferences like the NESCAC, CCIW, WIAC, UAA, and others can afford to lose to middle-of-the conference foes because those teams provide good data... CCC teams do not. However, even in those conferences if you pick up too many losses you are out of the conversation. The CCIW is in real trouble of being a one-bid-league this year... as the ODAC and WIAC were last year (very rare).

Endicott did a good job trying to improve their out-of-conference schedule, but then shot themselves in both feet by rolling over when playing middle and bottom teams giving themselves NO chance for their SOS and larger resume to be seriously considered.

As for scheduling, it usually takes place a year to two years in advance depending on a lot of factors. The NESCAC teams HAVE to schedule extra games, so there are always extra games to play. Heck, many of the NESCAC played Pine Manor and Green Mountain this year (for varying reasons). Sometimes the non-NESCAC coach has to be aggressive and find better opponents... not wait for them to come to him.

[7express]

If you schedule Amherst, UMass-Dartmouth, Tufts, Babson, UW-Whitewater, Christopher Newport, Washington University, Marietta & Rochester in your out of conference schedule, and beat them all, should we still take you if our are 11-7/10-8 team out of the CCC, GNAC, LEC, NAC, etc.  Sure, those are 9/10 great wins, and when you have to cherry pick from each of them to decide the best and the "worst" among those 10 that's a pretty good out of conference schedule, but that probably gets cancelled out and then some when you ate losing to multiple 5-20 teams in the conference.  Tough line to draw.  All you can do for the most part is keep winning....as long as you keep winning, it takes the thinking out of the hands of Indianapolis.

[Mr. Ypsi]

If you schedule Amherst, UMass-Dartmouth, Tufts, Babson, UW-Whitewater, Christopher Newport, Washington University, Marietta & Rochester in your out of conference schedule, and beat them all, should we still take you if our are 11-7/10-8 team out of the CCC, GNAC, LEC, NAC, etc.  Sure, those are 9/10 great wins, and when you have to cherry pick from each of them to decide the best and the "worst" among those 10 that's a pretty good out of conference schedule, but that probably gets cancelled out and then some when you ate losing to multiple 5-20 teams in the conference.  Tough line to draw.  All you can do for the most part is keep winning....as long as you keep winning, it takes the thinking out of the hands of Indianapolis.

If they beat all those teams out of conference, then had 7-8 losses in a weak conference, I'd be tempted not to take them just because they are obviously (dangerously?) bi-polar!

[D3ball1845]

Anyone have any thoughts/predictions on the first round of the CCC tournament? In my opinion, I see no looming upsets in the first three games. However, I do think that Wentworth will squeeze it out in the last minute against Gordon.

#1 Nichols vs. #8 University of New England (02/21/2017, 7:00 PM)

Nichols guards are just too quick and skilled for UNE to keep up with. I would expect Nichols to reach close to the century mark in this likely blowout, with either Ecchevaria or Bruton dropping 30+ points.

#2 Endicott vs. #7 Salve Regina (02/21/2017, 8:00 PM)

Endicott is peaking at the right time after a blowout win over RWU in one of the biggest games of the season two weekends ago. With their starting 5 (all seniors) and quality bench play, there is just too much experience and depth for Salve to overcome. If they can contain Rodney Morton (averaging 27 ppg in the two games against Endicott this year), I don't see Salve coming within 20 at the final buzzer. 

#3 Roger Williams vs. #6 Eastern Nazarene (02/21/2017, 7:30 PM)

RWU ended there season with a tough loss in the last second to WIT. However, they have been a strong team at home and are 2-0 against ENC this season. Expect big games from the RWU guards, Coene and Marini, in this one. I see RWU having a comfortable lead throughout the game, and as long as they don't get complacent they should come out with the win. Of note, ENC will be looking for some vengeance as this was the same matchup first round last year with the seeds switched as RWU pulled off the upset in their eventual run to the CCC championship game in 2016.

#4 Gordon vs. #5 Wentworth Institute of Technology (02/21/2017, 7:00 PM)

This will be the closest matchup of the first round and I see WIT escaping Gordon with the win. They have won their last 5 of 6, albeit the one loss was at home to Gordon. They do however, have a road victory from earlier this season against Gordon. I can see this game going down to the last minute and being decided by who can execute in the final possessions. With Ganley's ability to shoot the 3, I can see him drawing Duvivier or Johnson (both top 5 rebounders in the CCC) away from the hoop for a majority of the game, leaving Gordon exposed down low. If WIT does pull this one out, emerging freshman, big man Stephen Azums will need to put up some big numbers.

[AllStar]

[WPI89]

+1 on all these brackets Allstar - thanks for sharing!!!