MBB: Conference of New England

[D3ball1845]

First off, I'd like to say happy holidays to all, especially those that put up with my novel length posts on the CCC thread. Looking at the most recent statistics posted about teams vs. non-conference opponents and it is really great to see that the CCC is tied 1st for overall change in record against non-conference opponents at this point in the year compared to last year. Currently we sit 16th out of 45 conferences with a 34-24 mark for our record versus non-conference opponents. Here's a look below how each CCC team has faired against non-conference opponents:

RWU: 5-1
Nichols: 5-1
Endicott: 4-1
Wentworth: 5-2
Gordon: 3-2
Salve Regina: 3-3
WNE: 3-3
Eastern Nazarene: 3-3
UNE: 2-4
Curry: 1-5

Against the better conferences in the Northeast:

NEWMAC: 4-2 (#8 in the country versus non-conference opponents)
NESCAC: 3-8 (#2 in the country versus non-conference opponents)
LEC: 0-3 (#21 in the country versus non-conference opponents)

Of note, our top four teams are 3-0 against the NEWMAC, 2-3 against the NESCAC, and 0-1 against the LEC. While I don't like our record against the LEC, we have played well against the NEWMAC, and at least competed against the NESCAC. I know this is somewhat early to be commenting on, but does the CCCs turnaround against non-conference play compared to last season give them more respect from the selection committee and a chance at a second straight year of 2 bids for the NCAAs?

[deiscanton]

First off, I'd like to say happy holidays to all, especially those that put up with my novel length posts on the CCC thread. Looking at the most recent statistics posted about teams vs. non-conference opponents and it is really great to see that the CCC is tied 1st for overall change in record against non-conference opponents at this point in the year compared to last year. Currently we sit 16th out of 45 conferences with a 34-24 mark for our record versus non-conference opponents. Here's a look below how each CCC team has faired against non-conference opponents:

RWU: 5-1
Nichols: 5-1
Endicott: 4-1
Wentworth: 5-2
Gordon: 3-2
Salve Regina: 3-3
WNE: 3-3
Eastern Nazarene: 3-3
UNE: 2-4
Curry: 1-5

Against the better conferences in the Northeast:

NEWMAC: 4-2 (#8 in the country versus non-conference opponents)
NESCAC: 3-8 (#2 in the country versus non-conference opponents)
LEC: 0-3 (#21 in the country versus non-conference opponents)

Of note, our top four teams are 3-0 against the NEWMAC, 2-3 against the NESCAC, and 0-1 against the LEC. While I don't like our record against the LEC, we have played well against the NEWMAC, and at least competed against the NESCAC. I know this is somewhat early to be commenting on, but does the CCCs turnaround against non-conference play compared to last season give them more respect from the selection committee and a chance at a second straight year of 2 bids for the NCAAs?

I think that it is too soon to start pencilling in a Pool C bid for the Commonwealth Coast Conference.  I cannot rule it out, either, at this time.

Currently, KnightSlappy has Roger Williams with an SOS of .574, Nichols with an SOS of .577, and Endicott with an SOS of .605.  That means that all 3 teams listed have strong non conference SOS numbers, which can be taken into account in the secondary criteria.

Wentworth currently has a SOS number of .447, according to KnightSlappy's unofficial calculations.

As far as the primary criteria is concerned, Endicott has the strongest Pool C resume of the 3 teams that have strong SOS numbers.   Endicott has a win over Babson, which was ranked #2 in New England by the NCAA last season.  It remains to be seen if Babson will be ranked come Feb. 21, 2018.  Endicott also lost to Middlebury.

Nichols is in the lead in the CCC, and has a win over Endicott.  That currently gives Nichols an edge over Babson on results vs d3 common opponents.  Nichols is 1-1 vs teams regionally ranked last season, having beaten Endicott and losing to Wesleyan.

Roger Williams has the weakest Pool C resume of the three CCC teams that have strong SOS numbers.  RWU lost to UMass-Dartmouth, which was ranked #11 in New England by the NCAA last season.  That makes RWU without a win vs a team regionally ranked last season so far.

Any Pool C candidate in the CCC will be a bubble team mostly due to the results vs ranked opponents.

Any further analysis will have to wait until February, when regional rankings start being compiled.

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, Nichols went down without Bruton, so it'll be interesting to see if Bruton plays in any of the 3 games this week, especially against Wentworth on the weekend. They already beat Endicott and Roger Williams, who both have just one conference loss, by double digits, so here's hoping Bruton returns and they can get a sweep this week.

[D3ball1845]

The CCC continues its strong non-conference play boasting a 39-29 record, ranking 16th out of 45 conferences in the nation. We now turn to majority of conference play as things have already proven to be interesting with WNE knocking off No. 21 Nichols, 100-94 in OT this past Saturday (Greek Tragedy I did not realize that Bruton did not play in this one....obviously this was a major factor in the outcome of the game). I have predictions for three of the five games tonight posted below:

1. Roger Williams (9-2, 3-1) @ Salve Regina (6-6, 3-2), 7:30PM

RWU will travel to Salve Regina coming off an easy win against Curry this past Saturday. Of note, they will likely be without their sharpshooter, Rich Pugliese, who sustained a concussion in practice this past week. These teams played in two close games last year, but I don't see that being the case in this one. Salve Regina faced a tough setback this past weekend, losing to a volatile UNE team at home. Typically, Salve has a great home court advantage with its large and lively student body crowd. However, as it is still winter break the typical rowdy crowd will be absent and I can see RWU taking advantage of this. We will see two of the premier defensive teams in this game with the new CCC points per game leader, Austin Coene, of RWU looking to continue his strong play. If Salve can't stop the penetration of RWU guards Coene and Marini, look for this one to be a double digit win for RWU. Salve's Rodney Morton has thrived against RWU in the past and if he can put up a 30+ point effort for the Seahawks we could see a close one. Salve will need support from their two other guards, Kelly and Bowman, as they will have all they can handle from the RWU backcourt. Prediction: RWU 86 Salve Regina 71

2. Western New England (WNE) (5-5, 2-2) @ Endicott (8-3, 3-1), 7:30 PM

WNE travels to play Endicott in what I think is the CCC game of the night. WNE is hot as of late, winners of four straight, including an overtime victory over nationally ranked Nichols in their last game. In that game, WNE was able to hold Nichols to 27% from 3 point range (9-34) and 37% from the field overall. They will need another defensive effort like that against an Endicott team that features one of the best shooters and scorers in the country in sophomore phenom Keith Brown. Interestingly, both teams struggle on the glass and are in the bottom four in the conference with respect to rebounding margin. For WNE to pull off the upset they will need another big game from junior guard, Mike Pettway, who is coming off a 38 point effort against Nichols. Additionally, freshman big man Zach Tativan will need close to a double-double for them to take this game on the road. Of note, this game features a matchup of siblings, the aforementioned Mike Pettway from WNE and his younger brother, Jordan, on Endicott who is actually having a nice freshman campaign. I can see Endicott getting hot from deep in this one and winning this competitive game if they played the way they did in their last game against WIT. Prediction: Endicott 83 Western New England 77

3. Gordon (6-5, 2-2) @ Wentworth Institute of Technology (WIT) (8-3, 3-1), 7:30 PM

Gordon will travel to Boston to play WIT tonight in what should be a low scoring competitive matchup. Gordon has won their last 4 out of 5 games as it appears that that they are beginning to show signs of life after their slow start to the season. We see a matchup of two of the best bigs in the conference in Ganley from WIT and Duvivier from Gordon. Look for them to go at each other throughout the game, while I can also see WITs Stephen Azums taking some of the pressure off Ganley defensively and switching onto Duvivier. Gordon is among the conference leaders in turnovers and it will be interesting to see how they handle the high-pressure 1-3-1 zone that WIT utilizes a majority of the game. If Gordon is to pull this one off on the road they're going to need a big game out of swingman, Eric Demers, who has been averaging 20.8 ppg this season after returning from an injury that sidelined him all last season. WIT was winners of 6 in a row before they were beaten soundly by Endicott at home this past weekend. They shot a meager 11-25 from the free throw line in that game and will need to improve upon this if they want to beat a rising Gordon squad. Ganley and Azums will both need double digit scoring efforts and close to double digit rebounding numbers to attain the victory. In my opinion, this game is essentially a toss up as we have two relatively equal and driven teams. Prediction: Gordon 71 Wentworth 64

[Greek Tragedy]

Well, no Bruton again. I wonder how serious this is. Could be real damaging to their NCAA hopes. Also, no Keith Brown for Endicott either. Any word on either player?

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Well, no Bruton again. I wonder how serious this is. Could be real damaging to their NCAA hopes. Also, no Keith Brown for Endicott either. Any word on either player?

Not sure there was any reason to rush Bruton back for Curry - I wouldn't take that as a sign of anything.

[Greek Tragedy]

No Bruton again, but Brown returned, started and scored 28.

[D3ball1845]

The Bevo Francis Award Top 100 List was released today and included two players from the CCC, sophomore phenom Keith Brown (Endicott) and reigning CCC POY Marcos Echevarria (Nichols). Congratulations to both players as this is the first time a player from the CCC has been mentioned on the list. To be honest, I'm very surprised to see that RWUs Austin Coene was not included on this list but Echevarria was. Coene is arguably having the best season out of any player in the CCC, 24.4 ppg (2nd in the CCC), 6.8 rbpg (5th in the CCC), 3.3 apg (11th in the CCC), and 1.4 stpg (8th in the CCC), while shooting over 55% from the field and leading the CCC percentage wise from 3-point range.

In other news, we have five conference games again tonight. Don't have the time to post in-depth predictions since I will be heading to the RWU vs. Gordon game in a bit. Score predictions for all 5 games can be seen below:

1. Wentworth 76 Western New England 65
2. Endicott 79 Salve Regina 67
3. University of New England 108 Curry 93
4. Nichols 94 Eastern Nazarene 77
5. Roger Williams 87 Gordon 83

[D3ball1845]

Of course my comments in my last post come back to bite me as Coene had his worst game of the year in a 5-17 (2-3 3PM-A) performance from the field in a tough 87-83 loss at home to Gordon. The Hawks were down by as much as 16 in the beginning of the second half and came back to tie the game with 13 minutes remaining in the game behind Conor O'Brien who had a game high 34 points. The two teams battled from that point on in a very equal game, but RWU was ultimately unable to stop big man, Garrison Duvivier, who had 28 and 18 as Gordon was able to put the game away with two free throws in the final seconds. RWU needs to find a way to rebound the ball better against teams with talented big men and are limited by their one and done possessions as they essentially have no mindset to attain an offensive rebound. They have certainly felt the effect of the loss of sharpshooter, Rich Pugliese (concussion), as Gordon was able to collapse on Coene whenever he penetrated tonight. Hopefully, the sophomore 3-point specialist can return to the court soon as the lack of spacing on the offensive end of the court is really limiting RWUs ability to drive to the hoop.

On the other hand, reigning CCC POY Marcos Echevarria of Nichols (9-15, 7-11 3PM-A) scored 26 points and led his team to a 79-76 victory against a tough ENC team away tonight. The return of Deante Bruton certainly helped Nichols attain the win as he dropped 22 points in the win. UNE handled Curry with ease tonight in a 100-72 win as Alex Kravchuk had an efficient night going 10-12 from the field for 23 points in just 12 minutes for the Nor'Easters. Endicott beat Salve Regina soundly in a 83-70 game after a big win this past weekend in double OT against RWU. The Gulls appeared to give Keith Brown a lighter workload tonight as he finished with 17 points in 30 minutes. Finally, WIT was able to escape with a victory at WNE tonight in a 72-71 game where WNE's best player, Mike Pettway, just missed the game winner on a play where he appeared to be fouled.

[Greek Tragedy]

Good to see Bruton back on the floor for Nichols.

[D3ball1845]

We only have three games in the CCC tonight, as I'm assuming these are all makeup games that were cancelled during the snowstorm a couple of weeks ago. The three games are all actually very interesting matchups:

1. Endicott (11-4, 6-2) @ Eastern Nazarene (ENC) (6-9, 2-6)

Endicott will travel to Quincy to play an ENC squad that has played well in four straight conference games. They lost a tough game 76-79 at home to conference leader, Nichols, in their last game. Look for this to be a competitive game as ENC always sees an uptick in their play at home with a rowdy and lively student body crowd. On the other side, we have Endicott, who are winners of two straight, including a comfortable win against Salve Regina, 83-70 in their last game. Look for Keith Brown to get back on track on this one as I would expect nothing less than a 25+ point performance from him tonight. ENC has been able to stay close in these conference matchups because of good defense, so if they can find a way to control (possibly double) Brown and force other Endicott players to score and make plays. However, if Endicott gets hot from the field like they did in the first half against Salve Regina, we could see a blowout in the making. Endicott does have an inexperienced team and I could see the home court advantage really come into play for ENC in this one. Prediction - Endicott: 86 ENC: 77

2. Gordon (10-5) (6-2) @ Western New England (WNE) (6-8) (3-5)

Gordon travels to Springfield to play a WNE squad that lost a heart breaker to WIT in their last game, 72-71. On the other hand, Gordon won a tough game on the road against RWU, 87-83. This is a very intriguing matchup tonight as we see two of the premiere bigs in the conference in Tavitian (WNE) and Duvivier (Gordon). It was interesting to see Duvivier play off of RWUs Conor O'Brien and invite him to shoot open 3s last game which led to a 34 point night for the big man. I'm not positive if they'll apply the same strategy against Tavitian, who shoots around the same percentage as O'Brien does from deep. If they choose to let Tavitian shoot on the perimeter, expect Mike Pettway to have a tough time penetrating to the hoop as Gordon's defense was able to collapse on RWUs penetrator, Austin Coene, last game. On the defensive end, I don't know if freshman Tavitian will be able to stop Duvivier from putting up a near 20-20 game. He is just a big, strong body that controls the paint and makes most of his shots from less than 5 feet away. Additionally, I'm not positive if there is anyone on WNE who can matchup against Gordon's swingman, Eric Demers. I think Demers will easily drop 20+ points in this one. In my opinion, this is a poor matchup for WNE overall, especially on the glass (-7.6 rebounding margin per game) against a team that scored 26 second chance points on RWU in their last game. Prediction - Gordon: 84 WNE: 71

3. Wentworth Institute of Technology (WIT) (10-5) (5-3) @ Roger Williams (RWU) (11-4) (5-3)

I predict this will be the game of the night as the number 4 and 5 teams in the conference will face off against each other in Bristol, RI. RWU comes off of two tough losss against Gordon and Endicott. RWU has a rather rough week, as they play the top four teams in the conference, including conference leader, Nichols, on Saturday. RWU needs a win in this one and I can see them coming out hungry from the get go. As always, it will be interesting to see how the team handles the 1-3-1 zone of WIT that really slows the pace of the game down. RWU doesn't play at a particularly fast pace regardless, so I'd be surprised if either team scored in the 80s in this one. Look for their leading scorer, Austin Coene, to bounce back from his poor shooting performance in this one as I think he needs at least his season average (23.6 ppg) in points for RWU to attain the win. It will be interesting to see if Conor O'Brien, who has the hot hand for RWU, can stay out of foul trouble as RWU faces two formidable big men in WITs Jason Ganley and Stephen Azums. Rebounding and free throws could play a vital role in this likely low scoring affair. While WIT holds the clear advantage on the glass, they are shooting a dismal 60.6% from the line as a team this year. They need to control the glass and advantage of their opportunities from the charity stripe if they are to win this one on the road. However, I think RWU is just too hungry for a victory to lose their third in a row tonight. Of note, I do not think RWU sharpshooter, Rich Pugliese, will return for this one as he is still battling the effects of a concussion he sustained a couple weeks ago. This could really hurt RWU as they lose not only lose their best shooter against 1-3-1 zone but also lose spacing on the floor to penetrate now that they have one less shooter on the court. Of note, junior guard Jake Heaton has done a nice job filling in for Pugliese and I do think he will need to hit at least 1-2 three point field goals tonight to help RWU fill in the void. Prediction - RWU: 75 WIT 69

[D3ball1845]

This is a reply to Dave McHugh's recent Top 25 ballot. While I agree with him dropping Nichols out of the Top 25, I don't agree with his reasoning. The CCC continues to get a label as a weak conference despite its overall improvement as a conference. They are currently sitting at 39-29 in non-conference games, ranked 16th out of 45 conferences. They are tied 1st in the country for the biggest change in non-conference record compared to last year. How is a statistic like this not eye opening or worth considering? Also, for the first time in CCC history, they received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament last year. My point in all of this is the CCC deserves more recognition in Division 3 basketball and I think has a legitimate chance for another 2 bids to the NCAAs this year.

We can discuss Nichols recent struggles first. The only two games they have lost in conference have been to WNE and UNE, who are middle of the road teams in the CCC. The one common factor in these losses is they were without their second best player, DeAnte Bruton, in both of these contests. However, their two close wins against RWU and ENC this past week are a testament to a more competitive conference rather than a weaker Nichols team. They haven't lost any key players in the last year and teams within the conference are finally learning how to play effectively against them. If you can slow the pace of the game, limit their transition opportunities, handle their pick and roll/hand-off based offense, and attack the paint offensively, you will be there with a chance to win at the end of the game against Nichols.

RWU had a four game week, in which they played the four best teams in the conference, resulting in a 0-4 record. It doesn't help that your first game of the week is a double OT loss at Endicott. In the second and third games, you could see that they were fatigued and not there mentally, resulting in losses to both Gordon and WIT. However, the final game of the week against Nichols you saw a rejuvenated RWU team that controlled a majority of the game before their struggles at the free throw line cost them the game. While you can't ignore four losses in a row, they were all without their sharpshooter, Rich Pugliese, who is instrumental in their offense and also an underrated defender. If Pugliese was playing in these four games, I honestly believe they would have come out of the week at least 2-2. In their four losses, they lost by an average of four points. I still believe that RWU is a top 3 team in the CCC and they will have a very solid second half of conference play if they can remain healthy. They face off against WNE tonight, although there is still no word on whether or not Pugliese will take the floor in this one.

Simply put, the CCC is just a more competitive conference. If you discount Curry and Salve Regina, any team could beat each other on a given night. UNE is probably the scariest and most volatile team in the conference, which comes to no surprise given their Grinnell type offense. They have victories against the top 3 teams in the conference, but have also lost to the likes of RWU, ENC, and WIT. They begin their second half of conference play against Gordon tonight. Gordon has been a rising team in the CCC and currently sits third, although they seem to play down to inferior opponents, which likely cost them the game against WNE and UNE. Finally, we look at an Endicott squad who is second in the CCC. They are coming off a big win last week against RWU and a surprising loss to UNE on Saturday. They have one of the best players in the conference, if not the country in Keith Brown. However, they simply could be beat by anyone in the conference if he has an off night. Endicott plays at home against Nichols tonight in what will be a very interesting matchup regardless if DeAnte Bruton is able to take the court.

[warriorcat]

This is a reply to Dave McHugh's recent Top 25 ballot. While I agree with him dropping Nichols out of the Top 25, I don't agree with his reasoning. The CCC continues to get a label as a weak conference despite its overall improvement as a conference. They are currently sitting at 39-29 in non-conference games, ranked 16th out of 45 conferences. They are tied 1st in the country for the biggest change in non-conference record compared to last year. How is a statistic like this not eye opening or worth considering? Also, for the first time in CCC history, they received an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament last year. My point in all of this is the CCC deserves more recognition in Division 3 basketball and I think has a legitimate chance for another 2 bids to the NCAAs this year.

We can discuss Nichols recent struggles first. The only two games they have lost in conference have been to WNE and UNE, who are middle of the road teams in the CCC. The one common factor in these losses is they were without their second best player, DeAnte Bruton, in both of these contests. However, their two close wins against RWU and ENC this past week are a testament to a more competitive conference rather than a weaker Nichols team. They haven't lost any key players in the last year and teams within the conference are finally learning how to play effectively against them. If you can slow the pace of the game, limit their transition opportunities, handle their pick and roll/hand-off based offense, and attack the paint offensively, you will be there with a chance to win at the end of the game against Nichols.

RWU had a four game week, in which they played the four best teams in the conference, resulting in a 0-4 record. It doesn't help that your first game of the week is a double OT loss at Endicott. In the second and third games, you could see that they were fatigued and not there mentally, resulting in losses to both Gordon and WIT. However, the final game of the week against Nichols you saw a rejuvenated RWU team that controlled a majority of the game before their struggles at the free throw line cost them the game. While you can't ignore four losses in a row, they were all without their sharpshooter, Rich Pugliese, who is instrumental in their offense and also an underrated defender. If Pugliese was playing in these four games, I honestly believe they would have come out of the week at least 2-2. In their four losses, they lost by an average of four points. I still believe that RWU is a top 3 team in the CCC and they will have a very solid second half of conference play if they can remain healthy. They face off against WNE tonight, although there is still no word on whether or not Pugliese will take the floor in this one.

Simply put, the CCC is just a more competitive conference. If you discount Curry and Salve Regina, any team could beat each other on a given night. UNE is probably the scariest and most volatile team in the conference, which comes to no surprise given their Grinnell type offense. They have victories against the top 3 teams in the conference, but have also lost to the likes of RWU, ENC, and WIT. They begin their second half of conference play against Gordon tonight. Gordon has been a rising team in the CCC and currently sits third, although they seem to play down to inferior opponents, which likely cost them the game against WNE and UNE. Finally, we look at an Endicott squad who is second in the CCC. They are coming off a big win last week against RWU and a surprising loss to UNE on Saturday. They have one of the best players in the conference, if not the country in Keith Brown. However, they simply could be beat by anyone in the conference if he has an off night. Endicott plays at home against Nichols tonight in what will be a very interesting matchup regardless if DeAnte Bruton is able to take the court.

An eloquent response. 

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I dropped Nichols this week, too.  I posted about my ballot late last night - http://onemorethingblog.blogspot.com/2018/01/d3hoops-top-25-ballot-january-22-2018.html

My reasoning is basically that Nichols got Bruton back and looked worse.  A lot of potential they're not currently realizing.

The CCC is much improved, but not nearly as much as you seem to think - and I went to a CCC school.

[Pat Coleman]

They are currently sitting at 39-29 in non-conference games, ranked 16th out of 45 conferences. They are tied 1st in the country for the biggest change in non-conference record compared to last year. How is a statistic like this not eye opening or worth considering?

It's a noteworthy statistic, but only if the competition level is meaningful. I didn't see in your response anything about how that 39-29 record was compiled.