WBB: Southern Collegiate Athletic Conference

[DPU3619]

Well T_P, I've got a few reasons, but I don't know how much you (or any SCAC fans) are going to like any of them.  Just my feelings on the selection process, and no slight is meant against Hendrix.

There are five primary criteria for selection (region win pct, S.O.S., in-region H2H, common in-region opponents, and win pct vs regionally ranked teams), but let's keep in mind that nobody ever said that each one was weighted at 20%.  The feeling I have is that while S.O.S. is a criteria for selection, having a slight advantage in those numbers does nothing to counteract the record vs regionally ranked teams.  The few years I've been around this have told me that the record vs regionally ranked teams is the big deal here if you have a mediocre region record.  You have to have that if you're on the bubble.  Your S.O.S. will NOT bail you out if it's marginal, and Hendrix has a S.O.S. & OWP that isn't even marginal.  It's bad.  Also, just because your S.O.S. is better than somebody else's by .012 doesn't mean that they're going to think you're a better candidate.  That's such a small difference in a criteria that I don't think the NCAA weighs all that heavily when the numbers are as close as these are here.  50 spots apart, yes, but fairly close numerically.

Furthermore, the S.O.S. is meant to distinguish between teams with similar win percentages.  How much of a difference between Hendrix & UMHB is enough to counteract the fact that the Crusaders have been excellent against quality teams and Hendrix has not?  Whatever that number is, .012 isn't it.  The conclusion we reach is that Hendrix hasn't done it for the NCAA.  That much is clear.  To conclude this point, my feeling is that the NCAA has established that you can make up for a crappy OWP with a great record vs. regionally ranked opponents.  Hendrix can't do that.  UMHB can.  They're .750 against regionally-ranked teams.  That's why they are probably going, barring a bunch of upsets in other conference tournaments.

Also, I'd say that while this process is allegedly conducted in a vacuum from one year to the next, the ASC has a good playoff track record.  While DePauw's last decade is good, TU has a title, and OU went to the final four, Hendrix doesn't have that fall back on.  While, again, this isn't technically a criteria, is the human element saying "Do we take a team from the ASC which historically does well in the tournament and has beat some good teams OR do we take Hendrix that had a nice season but has nothing on their resume that makes them as worthy of a playoff spot?"  That's a harsh statement, I know, but that's the state of their affairs.  Trust me, I want Hendrix to get in as much as anybody else, but I understand why the NCAA thinks this.  They don't have a good resume.  UMHB doesn't have a good one either, but at least they've beaten somebody.  In fact, they've been three somebodys.  Hendrix is a good basketball team.  Please don't take this as criticism.  But, a team with an .810 region win pct, a S.O.S. in the 180's and no wins against regionally ranked teams isn't getting a Pool C.  They just aren't.  Even if they were fifth or sixth in the region rankings this week, they still didn't have a chance.  The resume just isn't good enough.

A quick note on DePauw, they're going into this with no wins against regionally ranked teams.  Their region record is the only thing keeping them in this.  Their OWP is 140.  I think that's going to cost them.  If W&J beats TMC, I don't think DePauw passes the Saints.  Not only did TMC beat them 3 months ago, but they also have a better record vs regionally ranked teams.  I don't think DePauw will host.  I've been wrong about that before, but it would almost have to be more of a geographic need than anything else to me.  There's too many good teams around DePauw for me to be confident about home games.

(edited for egregious typos)

[Ralph Turner]

Hendrix and UMHB can be compared against mutual opponents and regionally ranked teams at the time of the selection.

Hendrix is 5-2 vs:
at UOzarks W 75-73
UT-Tyler W 78-69
Mississippi College L 72-62
Trinity W 57-51
Southwestern W 85-64
at Trinity W 71-70
at Southwestern L 70-55

vs Regionally Ranked teams  (0-2):
DePauw  L 65-62 52
Mississippi College L 72-62


UMHB is 3-2 vs:
Southwestern W 73-52
at Trinity L 77-67
at UOzarks W 79-68
at UT-Tyler L 56-49
Mississippi College W 76-71

Vs Regionally Ranked teams  (3-1):

Louisiana College W 53-44
Mississippi College W 76-71
Howard Payne W 63-59
at Howard Payne L 73-53

IMHO, in the minds of the committee, I think that Hendrix is ranked about "7th or 8th".

Errata:  DePauw beat Hendrix 65-52.  I must have misread the screen.  Thanks for the correction.

[Tennessee_papa]

Ralph and Wes - Let me be explicit just so there's no misunderstanding.  I'm not complaining or saying that HC will have been cheated if they don't get a C bid.  I understand that they're marginal at best for one.  I did perceive before Wes's post that the committee is inclined to think that the ASC is stronger than the SCAC this season, which I'm not really seeing and is why I did the comparison I did.  The ASC is perhaps a little more top-heavy, but head-to-head the SCAC was 10-7 vs. the ASC this year, and two of the ASC wins were against Millsaps.  None of the SCAC teams played Schreiner.  I think (not sure about this one) that in inter-conference play between tournament qualifiers, the conferences split 5-5.

I could do the same comparison between UTD and UMHB to take the inter-conference thing out of it.  Even though their record is not as good, I think UTD is a stronger candidate than UMHB because their SOS is really good (and probably a better candidate than Hendrix as well).  And UTD beat UMHB head-to-head.  So I guess I'm simply saying that either HC is underrated or UMHB is overrated.

IMHO, in the minds of the committee, I think that Hendrix is ranked about "7th or 8th".

I'm figuring they've got to be 7th, and based on the comparison to UMHB im guessing that there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 7th,  so what happens this weekend in Pineville and Jackson is going to have a lot to do with what happens in the end.

[DPU3619]

Ralph, it's not a big deal since margin of victory doesn't matter, but DePauw beat Hendrix by 13, not 3.

[pbrooks3]

Agree with Wes and Ralph on Hendrix. Hendrix is a nice team but having watched them several times earlier I see no way they sneak into the dance unless they run the table this weekend. One opinion that counts for nothing, but I think the regional rankings are pretty close on this one.

[Ron Boerger]

Live stats links have been added to the live audio for today's games.  Go to

http://gomajors.com/sports/2010/2/15/GEN_0215102137.aspx?path=mbball

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph and Wes - Let me be explicit just so there's no misunderstanding.  I'm not complaining or saying that HC will have been cheated if they don't get a C bid.  I understand that they're marginal at best for one.  I did perceive before Wes's post that the committee is inclined to think that the ASC is stronger than the SCAC this season, which I'm not really seeing and is why I did the comparison I did.  The ASC is perhaps a little more top-heavy, but head-to-head the SCAC was 10-7 vs. the ASC this year, and two of the ASC wins were against Millsaps.  None of the SCAC teams played Schreiner.  I think (not sure about this one) that in inter-conference play between tournament qualifiers, the conferences split 5-5.

I could do the same comparison between UTD and UMHB to take the inter-conference thing out of it.  Even though their record is not as good, I think UTD is a stronger candidate than UMHB because their SOS is really good (and probably a better candidate than Hendrix as well).  And UTD beat UMHB head-to-head.  So I guess I'm simply saying that either HC is underrated or UMHB is overrated.

IMHO, in the minds of the committee, I think that Hendrix is ranked about "7th or 8th".

I'm figuring they've got to be 7th, and based on the comparison to UMHB im guessing that there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 7th,  so what happens this weekend in Pineville and Jackson is going to have a lot to do with what happens in the end.

I actually think that the ASC-West is "top 5-heavy", and Concordia-Texas would have been strong if they had not been hit with the injury bug (about 4-6 of their top 10 players early in the season.)

I think that the battles in the ASC-West do a good job of preparing teams for the tourney.

[Ralph Turner]

Ralph and Wes - Let me be explicit just so there's no misunderstanding.  I'm not complaining or saying that HC will have been cheated if they don't get a C bid.  I understand that they're marginal at best for one.  I did perceive before Wes's post that the committee is inclined to think that the ASC is stronger than the SCAC this season, which I'm not really seeing and is why I did the comparison I did.  The ASC is perhaps a little more top-heavy, but head-to-head the SCAC was 10-7 vs. the ASC this year, and two of the ASC wins were against Millsaps.  None of the SCAC teams played Schreiner.  I think (not sure about this one) that in inter-conference play between tournament qualifiers, the conferences split 5-5.

I could do the same comparison between UTD and UMHB to take the inter-conference thing out of it.  Even though their record is not as good, I think UTD is a stronger candidate than UMHB because their SOS is really good (and probably a better candidate than Hendrix as well).  And UTD beat UMHB head-to-head.  So I guess I'm simply saying that either HC is underrated or UMHB is overrated.

IMHO, in the minds of the committee, I think that Hendrix is ranked about "7th or 8th".

I'm figuring they've got to be 7th, and based on the comparison to UMHB im guessing that there's not a lot of difference between 3rd and 7th,  so what happens this weekend in Pineville and Jackson is going to have a lot to do with what happens in the end.

The other interesting fact about the SCAC-ASC games is that the SCAC school was listed at home team for 14 of the 17 games.

Two of the SCAC wins were AC's wins over LeTU (4-21/ 4-16).

[Tennessee_papa]

Ralph - Looks like I accidentally touched a nerve.  No offense was intended.

[DPU3619]

I'll let you know that you certainly did no such thing with me.  I feel pretty safe speaking for Ralph here when I say we really enjoy this kind of thing.  This, to me, is so much more fun than talking about RPI and the rather ambiguous D1 selection process.  There's a set of rules here, and while they can be interpreted a few different ways, the selection process sticks to the rules. 

A good portion of my novel post was also directed towards Blaster, who has claimed now for the third week in a row that because the S.O.S. numbers were in Hendrix's favor, the Fightin' McCracken's weren't getting a fair shake, which I don't believe any of the rest of us feel to be accurate.  The wins aren't there.  They just aren't.  You better have only 3-4 region losses if you don't have any wins.

[Tennessee_papa]

Wes, HC has to get past Centre tonight or it's all moot anyway.  I watched the first half of Centre's game last night and from what I saw beating them ain't going to be easy.

[Blaster]

My posts are merely trying to understand the process. A response to one of my first posts was the rankings for D3 was a "mathmatical" process using the metrics I used in my later posts. If this is not the case that's fine.  I personally believe that only conference champs or tournament champs whichever the conf chooses should go to the NCAA tournament with no selection process but what fun would that be. I wouldn't have had anything to post about. I enjoy the dialogue but know you must win or go home!

[pbrooks3]

Well, Hendrix is laying it on the line so far against Centre with a 37-34 lead at the half. A pretty physical opening stanza with Hendrix getting the style game they like. They've gone to the free throw line and made a bunch. Centre is turning them over some but the Lady Colonels are turning it over too often on the offensive end. Prewitt has been bottled up; Byler has gone off for close to 20 points with 4 3's.

[Blaster]

Congrats to Centre. Too much Huter to open the second half. Congrats to HX as well on a great season. 20-5 is fun for the girls as well as the fans. Great job to a first year head coach McCracken (our coach of the year).  I am excited for the SCAC. Hx and Centre has several players that are Sophomores which bodes well for the future. I enjoyed the board.

[pbrooks3]

Hendrix scrapped the entire 40 minutes and it was fortunate for Centre that they fouled out Byler & Devlin late. Think the Colonels' coaches had to tell their girls to drive it straight at Byler to attempt to get the 5th foul. Sophomore Lauren Huter was huge coming up with 6 straight baskets to open the 2nd half to finish with 22 along with 11 rebounds. She had the 2nd half Centre needed her to have.  Freshman Chelsea Benham played "lights out" as well with 18 points. A hard fought victory by Centre over a tenacious Hendrix team. Congrats to the Warriors on an outstanding season. Centre marches on to meet their rival from the north - DePauw. Go Lady Colonels!