BB: SCIAC: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Jack Parkman]

My thoughts on the way the SCIAC Tournament will end up....

Pomona and Cal Lu and 2 other teams.  I think Chapman is playing much better than many think and this weekend is huge for them.  I think the other 2 teams will be Chapman and La Verne or Oxy.  Still a ton of baseball yet to be played.

[CrashDavisD3]

Chapman has taken 2 out of 3 from Oxy and La Verne. Chapman needs to continue this trend with Cal Lu if they want to make the TOP 4 and the SCIAC conference tourney.

Remember Chapman is doing this with only 1 Senior on the roster and losing the #1, #2, #3 from 2012 starting pitchers due the draft and  injuries before the season began and losing the #1 incoming freshman pitcher due to injuries. Another starting pitcher from 2012 also chose to focus on school and left baseball.

http://www.chapmanathletics.com/sports/bsb/2012-13/roster

http://www.chapmanathletics.com/sports/bsb/2012-13/teams/chapman?view=lineup

[dahlby]

Cal Lu over Chapman in the first game of the weekend series 7-5 at Cal Lu.
Three game series resumes with a twin-bill in Orange on Saturday.
Box score at    www.chapmanathletics.com   .

[Colorado]

I was at the Redlands-Pomona Pitzer game yesterday to see their big kid (the 6'6" FR playing 3B and apparently pitches too). He looked good at the plate (HR) but had some trouble at 3B on a couple balls on his back hand side (still, what's a couple balls when you can get 4 back with one swing--he seems better suited for 1B so perhaps after Gentili graduates...). PP came out smoking and was up 7-1 in the 3rd. Redlands was about  to fall to a better team and PP was showing us why they were an early favorite to place 1 or 2 in the SCIAC.  We watched a few more innings and PP expanded its lead to 9-1. The rout was on. Its SP was breezing into the 6th and Redlands wasn't putting up much of a fight. Melting under the sun, we decided to leave early to beat the traffic on the 91  (I could hear whispers behind us that we must be "Dodger fans"). Later that night,  I checked the box score and was stunned to find out that Redlands scored 12 times in the last 3 innings and won 13-9. Besides showing what little I know about routs and bezbol, this one had to hurt if you were driving back to Pomona. Its just one game but I would be curious if the bullpen is the achilles heel of PP.

[108 Stitches]

I guess you were reminded of one of my favorite yogism's. Wow must have been a wild one.

I just check and Chapman dropped 2-3 to CLU, which is what I expected. I did not check the box scores but they seem competitive losing 7-5, 7-3 and taking the final game 9-6.

[Jack Parkman]

Here is the toughness of the SCIAC teams' schedules by opponents winning %.

1) Chapman- .773%
2) CLU- .596%
3) CMS- .589%
4) Redlands- .560%
5) La Verne- .516%
6) Whittier- .487%
7) Pomona-Pitzer- .483%
8) Oxy- .194%

Pretty interesting numbers and I would say Chapman is doing a good job playing against a very tough schedule.  They might not be around at the end of the year but I fully expect them to be back next year.

[Richard Hamstocks]

Here is the toughness of the SCIAC teams' schedules by opponents winning %.

1) Chapman- .773%
2) CLU- .596%
3) CMS- .589%
4) Redlands- .560%
5) La Verne- .516%
6) Whittier- .487%
7) Pomona-Pitzer- .483%
8) Oxy- .194%

Pretty interesting numbers and I would say Chapman is doing a good job playing against a very tough schedule.  They might not be around at the end of the year but I fully expect them to be back next year.

I would caution against reading too much into strength of schedule numbers like opponents winning percentage this early in the season.  The rank (Spearman) correlation coefficient between winning percentage and opponents winning percentage is -.762, pretty large. If Chapman were winning more of those `tough' games, they would seemingly be playing a weaker schedule.  That being said, I think Chapman's schedule is well put together, and Oxy's hasn't been (Trinity vs Austin to open the season). 
 

[Whatagame]

Here is the toughness of the SCIAC teams' schedules by opponents winning %.

1) Chapman- .773%
2) CLU- .596%
3) CMS- .589%
4) Redlands- .560%
5) La Verne- .516%
6) Whittier- .487%
7) Pomona-Pitzer- .483%
8) Oxy- .194%

Pretty interesting numbers and I would say Chapman is doing a good job playing against a very tough schedule.  They might not be around at the end of the year but I fully expect them to be back next year.

I would caution against reading too much into strength of schedule numbers like opponents winning percentage this early in the season.  The rank (Spearman) correlation coefficient between winning percentage and opponents winning percentage is -.762, pretty large. If Chapman were winning more of those `tough' games, they would seemingly be playing a weaker schedule.  That being said, I think Chapman's schedule is well put together, and Oxy's hasn't been (Trinity vs Austin to open the season). 

Besides it being early, it's also "luck of the draw" to an extent in terms of how the early portion of the conference play is scheduled in terms of opponents.  (which I'm assuming the individual teams do not dictate) 

[Jack Parkman]

Here is the toughness of the SCIAC teams' schedules by opponents winning %.

1) Chapman- .773%
2) CLU- .596%
3) CMS- .589%
4) Redlands- .560%
5) La Verne- .516%
6) Whittier- .487%
7) Pomona-Pitzer- .483%
8) Oxy- .194%

Pretty interesting numbers and I would say Chapman is doing a good job playing against a very tough schedule.  They might not be around at the end of the year but I fully expect them to be back next year.

I would caution against reading too much into strength of schedule numbers like opponents winning percentage this early in the season.  The rank (Spearman) correlation coefficient between winning percentage and opponents winning percentage is -.762, pretty large. If Chapman were winning more of those `tough' games, they would seemingly be playing a weaker schedule.  That being said, I think Chapman's schedule is well put together, and Oxy's hasn't been (Trinity vs Austin to open the season). 

I agree 100%.  I was simply looking at a few things and one that I forgot to mention was that some of these teams have played Cal Tech and some have not.  Oxy is going to drop around .150% after this weekend but they will go way up in a few weeks.  Just something to pass the time.

[dahlby]

Just like all the polls and comments made year to date regarding team's strengths and weaknesses, Jack's posting was simply a measurement of where Chapman, and the other teams he listed, are at YTD. We can check these numbers at any time during the season and see how certain teams have progressed. Yes, it is early in the season, but that doesn't mean we should not be "checking the oil" along the way. Just like we do the rankings.

Thanks for your efforts, Jack!

[CrashDavisD3]

It is great to hear all the comments and viewpoints. With Cal Tech and Claremont this year, this will drive SCIAC teams SOS down as teams play them.

The goal of all SCIAC teams is to finish in the TOP 4 to make it to the SCIAC tournament and a shot at the Pool A bid.

All a team needs is to get hot in that tournament. It could be anyone.

A few years back Illinois Wesleyan barely made into their Conference tournament. Most of the year the team this team had a losing overall record. But they got hot at the right time. Won Conference Tourney, Regional and the National Championship from a team that was barely .500 entering their conference tourney

[Richard Hamstocks]

Just like all the polls and comments made year to date regarding team's strengths and weaknesses, Jack's posting was simply a measurement of where Chapman, and the other teams he listed, are at YTD. We can check these numbers at any time during the season and see how certain teams have progressed. Yes, it is early in the season, but that doesn't mean we should not be "checking the oil" along the way. Just like we do the rankings.

Thanks for your efforts, Jack!

As well as "checking the oil", one should also check the "dipstick" to ensure that it is accurately measuring the "oil".

[dahlby]

How correct you are Richard!

[OshDude]

It is great to hear all the comments and viewpoints. With Cal Tech and Claremont this year, this will drive SCIAC teams SOS down as teams play them.

The goal of all SCIAC teams is to finish in the TOP 4 to make it to the SCIAC tournament and a shot at the Pool A bid.

All a team needs is to get hot in that tournament. It could be anyone.

A few years back Illinois Wesleyan barely made into their Conference tournament. Most of the year the team this team had a losing overall record. But they got hot at the right time. Won Conference Tourney, Regional and the National Championship from a team that was barely .500 entering their conference tourney

They got hot and healthy. That IWU team wasn't lacking in the talent department, especially the pitchers. Again, when healthy.

[CrashDavisD3]

SCIAC WEEKEND PREDICTIONS

Pomona vs Whitter  - Games for 1st place. I expect Pomona to sweep and go to 9-3 in conference
Occidental vs Cal Tech - Occidental to sweep and will be 7-2 in conference
Cal Lutheran vs Redlands - Cal Lu will take 2 of 3 and will be 6-3 in conference
Chapman vs Claremont - Chapman will sweep and will be 8-4 in conference

La Verne will remain 6-3 in conference
Whittier will be 5-4 in conference
Redlands will be 6-6 in conference
Claremont will be 1-11 in conference
Cal Tech will be 0-12 in conference


Teams in the race for TOP 4 SCIAC playoffs
Pomona, Cal Lu, La Verne, Occidental, Chapman.