BB: SCIAC: Southern California Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[Jack Parkman]

Updated rankings

West    In-Division Record    Overall Record
1    Chapman    27-9    27-9
2    Trinity (Texas)    29-8    30-9
3    La Verne    27-10    27-10
4    Occidental    25-12    25-12
5    Texas Lutheran    29-10    29-10
6    Concordia University Texas    29-10    29-10
7    Cal Lutheran    24-13    24-13

Big jump for Oxy this week and 4 SCIAC teams in the mix.  You can add 2 losses to at least 3 of those teams if those are the 4 that make the SCIAC tourney.  I would think Chapman is safe regardless of what happens and believe they will host Whitman in a best of 5 in the regional.  Hoping the SCIAC can get a couple of teams in.

[Ralph Turner]

Updated rankings

West    In-Division Record    Overall Record
1    Chapman    27-9    27-9
2    Trinity (Texas)    29-8    30-9
3    La Verne    27-10    27-10
4    Occidental    25-12    25-12
5    Texas Lutheran    29-10    29-10
6    Concordia University Texas    29-10    29-10
7    Cal Lutheran    24-13    24-13

Big jump for Oxy this week and 4 SCIAC teams in the mix.  You can add 2 losses to at least 3 of those teams if those are the 4 that make the SCIAC tourney.  I would think Chapman is safe regardless of what happens and believe they will host Whitman in a best of 5 in the regional.  Hoping the SCIAC can get a couple of teams in.

in which case I will bet that they would fly Whitman to Texas to play the "other" SCAC team.

[Jim Dixon]

Updated rankings

West    In-Division Record    Overall Record
1    Chapman    27-9    27-9
2    Trinity (Texas)    29-8    30-9
3    La Verne    27-10    27-10
4    Occidental    25-12    25-12
5    Texas Lutheran    29-10    29-10
6    Concordia University Texas    29-10    29-10
7    Cal Lutheran    24-13    24-13

Big jump for Oxy this week and 4 SCIAC teams in the mix.  You can add 2 losses to at least 3 of those teams if those are the 4 that make the SCIAC tourney.  I would think Chapman is safe regardless of what happens and believe they will host Whitman in a best of 5 in the regional.  Hoping the SCIAC can get a couple of teams in.

If two SCIAC teams are in, I don't see them playing each other in a two-team regional.  I predict in this scenario you fly in Whitman and the not SCAC Trinity team, leaving Trinity-ASC as the two team regional.  The NCAA has not been shy about adding a flight for competitive balance.

I am predicting a regional with Chapman, SCIAC champion, Texas Lutheran and Whitman. and one with CTX and Trinity.  You can even play home-home for Trinity and CTX but that would be too bold on the NCAA.

[Jack Parkman]

Updated rankings

West    In-Division Record    Overall Record
1    Chapman    27-9    27-9
2    Trinity (Texas)    29-8    30-9
3    La Verne    27-10    27-10
4    Occidental    25-12    25-12
5    Texas Lutheran    29-10    29-10
6    Concordia University Texas    29-10    29-10
7    Cal Lutheran    24-13    24-13

Big jump for Oxy this week and 4 SCIAC teams in the mix.  You can add 2 losses to at least 3 of those teams if those are the 4 that make the SCIAC tourney.  I would think Chapman is safe regardless of what happens and believe they will host Whitman in a best of 5 in the regional.  Hoping the SCIAC can get a couple of teams in.

If two SCIAC teams are in, I don't see them playing each other in a two-team regional.  I predict in this scenario you fly in Whitman and the not SCAC Trinity team, leaving Trinity-ASC as the two team regional.  The NCAA has not been shy about adding a flight for competitive balance.

I am predicting a regional with Chapman, SCIAC champion, Texas Lutheran and Whitman. and one with CTX and Trinity.  You can even play home-home for Trinity and CTX but that would be too bold on the NCAA.

Do you think TLU is fairly safe if they don't win the SCAC tourney and Trinity does?

[Jim Dixon]

Updated rankings

West    In-Division Record    Overall Record
1    Chapman    27-9    27-9
2    Trinity (Texas)    29-8    30-9
3    La Verne    27-10    27-10
4    Occidental    25-12    25-12
5    Texas Lutheran    29-10    29-10
6    Concordia University Texas    29-10    29-10
7    Cal Lutheran    24-13    24-13

Big jump for Oxy this week and 4 SCIAC teams in the mix.  You can add 2 losses to at least 3 of those teams if those are the 4 that make the SCIAC tourney.  I would think Chapman is safe regardless of what happens and believe they will host Whitman in a best of 5 in the regional.  Hoping the SCIAC can get a couple of teams in.

If two SCIAC teams are in, I don't see them playing each other in a two-team regional.  I predict in this scenario you fly in Whitman and the not SCAC Trinity team, leaving Trinity-ASC as the two team regional.  The NCAA has not been shy about adding a flight for competitive balance.

I am predicting a regional with Chapman, SCIAC champion, Texas Lutheran and Whitman. and one with CTX and Trinity.  You can even play home-home for Trinity and CTX but that would be too bold on the NCAA.

Do you think TLU is fairly safe if they don't win the SCAC tourney and Trinity does?

If TLU loses the SCAC, I expect them to go 2-2 or 3-2.  The only teams that will not get 2 regional loses are the winners of the tournament.  Of course if Southwestern wins the SCAC then all hell breaks loose and someone will lose out.  CTX is too far down the list that they are probably out if they dont win their pool and do well in the end series.

[Ralph Turner]

TLU plays Trinity tomorrow, needing only one win.

From the perspective of getting Pool C bids in the West Region, TLU winning the first game and earning the Pool A bid sets up nicely for Trinity to earn the Pool C.

By my first run of the Regional Rankings, Trinity TX has these results against regionally ranked teams.

Cortland  2-0
BSC         2-1
Babson     2-1
TLU          1-4

[Jack Parkman]

With the start of the SCIAC Tourney a few days away, I thought I would throw some numbers out for the 4 participants.  These are conference stats only.

ERA
2.89- Chapman
3.37- Cal Lu
3.40- Oxy
3.62- La Verne

Batting Average
.298- Oxy
.294- Cal Lu
.293- Chapman
.290- La Verne

*I am amazed that none of these four schools hit over .300 in conference

Slugging %
.417- Chapman
.414- Oxy
.408- Cal Lu
.396

HR's
13- Oxy
10- Chapman
9- Cal Lu and La Verne

SB's
43- Chapman
38- Oxy
26- La Verne
19- Cal Lu

I won't keep going but I really do think this tourney is up for grabs.  Starting pitching will be key for everyone with each school typically using the same three starters each series.  Some bullpens are deeper than others and that could come into play if any starter gets knocked out early.  Oxy has mixed it up a bit lately moving Ramirez, who is having a very good freshman year, to the pen to close out games so we will see if they stay that course.  Friday should be a great day of baseball with all 4 starters having the ability to shut down the opposition.

Chapman is safe should they fail to with the tourney and I think Oxy and La Verne "could" get a bid if they make the championship game.  It looks like Cal Lu needs to win the tourney to get a bid.  Either way, each of these four teams is rooting for Concordia (TX) to win their tourney and for the upsets across the country to slow down a bit.

[SoCal OG]

Either way, each of these four teams is rooting for Concordia (TX) to win their tourney and for the upsets across the country to slow down a bit.

Why are they rooting for Concordia (TX)? 

[Jim Dixon]

Either way, each of these four teams is rooting for Concordia (TX) to win their tourney and for the upsets across the country to slow down a bit.

Why are they rooting for Concordia (TX)?

CTX will move up in the regional rankings tomorrow.  Remove them as a contender for a pool c bid.

[Jack Parkman]

Either way, each of these four teams is rooting for Concordia (TX) to win their tourney and for the upsets across the country to slow down a bit.

Why are they rooting for Concordia (TX)?

CTX will move up in the regional rankings tomorrow.  Remove them as a contender for a pool c bid.

Exactly. I figure CTX will go to the 3 spot and the worst they can be after this weekend is 32-14.  I think it would be tough to leave them out but trouble for the SCIAC if that does happen.

[Jim Dixon]

Either way, each of these four teams is rooting for Concordia (TX) to win their tourney and for the upsets across the country to slow down a bit.

Why are they rooting for Concordia (TX)?

If LeTourneau wins the ASC I am not sure CTX will have a lock to make the tournament.  I think moving up to #3 is too optimistic and think that they will stay mired behind Texas Lutheran.  If they leap ahead of TLU this week and lose the ASC, they should fall back behind them in the final regional rankings.

If disaster strikes and only one SLIAC team makes the playoffs, see the NWC and SLIAC play a two team regional at the SLIAC champion.

CTX will move up in the regional rankings tomorrow.  Remove them as a contender for a pool c bid.

Exactly. I figure CTX will go to the 3 spot and the worst they can be after this weekend is 32-14.  I think it would be tough to leave them out but trouble for the SCIAC if that does happen.

[Purple Heys]

Batting Average
.298- Oxy
.294- Cal Lu
.293- Chapman
.290- La Verne

*I am amazed that none of these four schools hit over .300 in conference

I think an improved Caltech, no longer being an automatic mercy rule and a hit parade, is probably the biggest reason for pulling down BA's.  They beat 2 of the 4 playoff teams and held Chapman to 5 hits in G1 of their series.

[Jack Parkman]

Batting Average
.298- Oxy
.294- Cal Lu
.293- Chapman
.290- La Verne

*I am amazed that none of these four schools hit over .300 in conference

I think an improved Caltech, no longer being an automatic mercy rule and a hit parade, is probably the biggest reason for pulling down BA's.  They beat 2 of the 4 playoff teams and held Chapman to 5 hits in G1 of their series.

That is a very good point I hadn't thought about.

[Ralph Turner]

Batting Average
.298- Oxy
.294- Cal Lu
.293- Chapman
.290- La Verne

*I am amazed that none of these four schools hit over .300 in conference

I think an improved Caltech, no longer being an automatic mercy rule and a hit parade, is probably the biggest reason for pulling down BA's.  They beat 2 of the 4 playoff teams and held Chapman to 5 hits in G1 of their series.

That is a very good point I hadn't thought about.

I ran some numbers. CalTech was 1/10th of the number of games.

If you got five fewer hits per game on 40 AB's in a game that is 20 fewer hits per 1600 AB's per season or 0.012 points on a batting average.

[Purple Heys]

Batting Average
.298- Oxy
.294- Cal Lu
.293- Chapman
.290- La Verne

*I am amazed that none of these four schools hit over .300 in conference

I think an improved Caltech, no longer being an automatic mercy rule and a hit parade, is probably the biggest reason for pulling down BA's.  They beat 2 of the 4 playoff teams and held Chapman to 5 hits in G1 of their series.

That is a very good point I hadn't thought about.

I ran some numbers. CalTech was 1/10th of the number of games.

If you got five fewer hits per game on 40 AB's in a game that is 20 fewer hits per 1600 AB's per season or 0.012 points on a batting average.

I offered that it was the biggest reason, but not the only reason.  I think you can point to Whittier's and CMS's improved competitiveness as contributing reasons, too.  Plus the competitive gap between top four teams and the lower 4 teams may not be as big as it has been say in 2014 and 2015...

You also need to consider the inflationary effect of the 15-20 hit games on the reference state, i.e., before Caltech became more competitive; then compare that to the new state.

Either way, I think that is where the answer may likely be found.