MBB: Ohio Athletic Conference

[EttaFan1]

So the league race took shape last night....

Seed and Scenario

1.  ONU or Marietta:  They play on Saturday.  Winner is the top seed.
2.  JCU.  Regardless of the outcome of the game above, JCU will be the 2 with a win over CAP.  ONU would have the the tie breaker over JCU by being 2-0 vs. MAR.  Marietta would be a game ahead if the Pios win.
3.  Assuming JCU takes care of business against Cap, ONU or Marietta:  Loser goes here.  ONU would be a game behind JCU. Marietta would fall to the three in a three way tie because they would be 0-2 against ONU.  However, there is a chance with an ONU loss and a JCU loss, JCU could be the three.
4.  Most likely Mount Union.  Mount is the outright 4 seed with  a win over last place Ott. If they lose, then:  Two way tie possibilities. Mount and BW (1-1), Mount wins by being 1-1 vs. ONU.  Mount and Muskingum (Mount is 2-0), Mount wins tie. Mount and Cap Mount Mount is 2-0.   Mount would come out on top in a three way tie which involves Muskingum or Capital due to being 2-0 against both of them and BW splitting with both. 
5.  So the contenders for this seed are Musk, BW and Cap who are all 7-10.  The games:

• MUSK @ Berg
• BW @ Wilm
• CAP @ JCU
• All Three are 1-1 against each other

A Muskingum win looks like it gives them the 5th seed.  The tie breaker vs BW is the win against JCU.  The tie breaker against Cap would be their 2-0 record vs Wilmington where Cap is 0-2. 
A muskingum loss opens the door for the others, but there could still be a 4 way tie for the fifth spot if both BW and CAP lose on Saturday.
6-8....

• If Berg loses to Muskingum they will be 8th
• Lots of other possibilities.

Wilmington and Ott have been eliminated.

My picks...

Marietta over ONU at home.
JCU over Cap (Mike Moran's last regular season home game as coach...)
Mount over Ott
Musk over Berg
BW over Wilmington.

My predictions for the tourney.

1.  Marietta vs. 8. Berg
2.  JCU vs. 7. Cap
3.  ONU vs. 6. BW
4. Mount vs. 5. Musk

(I could see BW and Muskingum switching spots though).

[JCUStreaks70]

So the league race took shape last night....

Seed and Scenario

1.  ONU or Marietta:  They play on Saturday.  Winner is the top seed.
2.  JCU.  Regardless of the outcome of the game above, JCU will be the 2 with a win over CAP.  ONU would have the the tie breaker over JCU by being 2-0 vs. MAR.  Marietta would be a game ahead if the Pios win.
3.  Assuming JCU takes care of business against Cap, ONU or Marietta:  Loser goes here.  ONU would be a game behind JCU. Marietta would fall to the three in a three way tie because they would be 0-2 against ONU.  However, there is a chance with an ONU loss and a JCU loss, JCU could be the three.
4.  Most likely Mount Union.  Mount is the outright 4 seed with  a win over last place Ott. If they lose, then:  Two way tie possibilities. Mount and BW (1-1), Mount wins by being 1-1 vs. ONU.  Mount and Muskingum (Mount is 2-0), Mount wins tie. Mount and Cap Mount Mount is 2-0.   Mount would come out on top in a three way tie which involves Muskingum or Capital due to being 2-0 against both of them and BW splitting with both. 
5.  So the contenders for this seed are Musk, BW and Cap who are all 7-10.  The games:

• MUSK @ Berg
• BW @ Wilm
• CAP @ JCU
• All Three are 1-1 against each other

A Muskingum win looks like it gives them the 5th seed.  The tie breaker vs BW is the win against JCU.  The tie breaker against Cap would be their 2-0 record vs Wilmington where Cap is 0-2. 
A muskingum loss opens the door for the others, but there could still be a 4 way tie for the fifth spot if both BW and CAP lose on Saturday.
6-8....

• If Berg loses to Muskingum they will be 8th
• Lots of other possibilities.

Wilmington and Ott have been eliminated.

My picks...

Marietta over ONU at home.
JCU over Cap (Mike Moran's last regular season home game as coach...)
Mount over Ott
Musk over Berg
BW over Wilmington.

My predictions for the tourney.

1.  Marietta vs. 8. Berg
2.  JCU vs. 7. Cap
3.  ONU vs. 6. BW
4. Mount vs. 5. Musk

(I could see BW and Muskingum switching spots though).

I think your predictions are pretty spot on personally. I do think Marietta takes care of business against Northern, and JCU beats Capital to secure No. 2. Especially with it being Moran's last game, added with a post-game celebration planned, there will be good attendance to help. If I weren't in Chicago, I'd definitely be going.

As far as the tournament. I think the 4 semi teams will be Marietta, JCU, ONU and Mount. I know it's easy to take the Top 4, but I think they are all going to be able to use home-court to their advantage.

I believe Marietta is in regardless of outcome. I think JCU is in, especially if they get to the championship game, but should be in as long as ONU does not win the tournament.

While the OAC is a good conference, I don't know if the NCAA will take 3 teams from the OAC if Northern wins, which would leave JCU on the outside looking in.

But who knows, maybe with it being Moran's last year, JCU gets the nod regardless out of respect to Moran?

Either way, it's shaping up to be an interesting week.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Operating under the assumption that ONU wins the conference tournament, it is my opinion that barring an inordinate amount of conference tournament upsets, Marietta will be in the field of 64 regardless of their performance on Saturday or in the OAC tournament.  JCU will most likely be in if they win on Saturday and without regard to their OAC tournament performance. 

I do not see many paths for ONU to get in the Field of 64 other that as an AQ.  They certainly would not hurt their cause with a win over Etta Saturday and a win over either JCU or Etta in the semis but I just do not like their at-large hopes.  They have at-large hopes but they have to be operating under the assumption that they need to get the AQ berth for the OAC.

The committee will not care on iota about Coach Moran or being respectful to him.  I may not like the process all the time but it sticks to the numbers about as closely as any tournament process of which I am aware.  Now, I do think it comes into play more bracketing, host sites, etc. but the actual selection is very data driven, in my opinion.

[Dr. Acula]

I'd love to see those predictions hold.  Never thought I'd say this, but I'd be excited to see Musky play Mount again.  That last game they played was something else.  They're very evenly matched. 

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Operating under the assumption that ONU wins the conference tournament, it is my opinion that barring an inordinate amount of conference tournament upsets, Marietta will be in the field of 64 regardless of their performance on Saturday or in the OAC tournament.  JCU will most likely be in if they win on Saturday and without regard to their OAC tournament performance. 

I do not see many paths for ONU to get in the Field of 64 other that as an AQ.  They certainly would not hurt their cause with a win over Etta Saturday and a win over either JCU or Etta in the semis but I just do not like their at-large hopes.  They have at-large hopes but they have to be operating under the assumption that they need to get the AQ berth for the OAC.

The committee will not care on iota about Coach Moran or being respectful to him.  I may not like the process all the time but it sticks to the numbers about as closely as any tournament process of which I am aware.  Now, I do think it comes into play more bracketing, host sites, etc. but the actual selection is very data driven, in my opinion.

I think Marietta is safe... but if they stub their toes in the semis they open the door.. but I still think they are safe. I answered the JCU question in the region page, but you are right... Moran's last year won't make a damn bit of difference.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Operating under the assumption that ONU wins the conference tournament, it is my opinion that barring an inordinate amount of conference tournament upsets, Marietta will be in the field of 64 regardless of their performance on Saturday or in the OAC tournament.  JCU will most likely be in if they win on Saturday and without regard to their OAC tournament performance. 

I do not see many paths for ONU to get in the Field of 64 other that as an AQ.  They certainly would not hurt their cause with a win over Etta Saturday and a win over either JCU or Etta in the semis but I just do not like their at-large hopes.  They have at-large hopes but they have to be operating under the assumption that they need to get the AQ berth for the OAC.

The committee will not care on iota about Coach Moran or being respectful to him.  I may not like the process all the time but it sticks to the numbers about as closely as any tournament process of which I am aware.  Now, I do think it comes into play more bracketing, host sites, etc. but the actual selection is very data driven, in my opinion.

I think Marietta is safe... but if they stub their toes in the semis they open the door.. but I still think they are safe. I answered the JCU question in the region page, but you are right... Moran's last year won't make a damn bit of difference.

I would go so far as to say that the majority of the committee does not know Mike Moran and certainly is not aware that he is retiring.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Operating under the assumption that ONU wins the conference tournament, it is my opinion that barring an inordinate amount of conference tournament upsets, Marietta will be in the field of 64 regardless of their performance on Saturday or in the OAC tournament.  JCU will most likely be in if they win on Saturday and without regard to their OAC tournament performance. 

I do not see many paths for ONU to get in the Field of 64 other that as an AQ.  They certainly would not hurt their cause with a win over Etta Saturday and a win over either JCU or Etta in the semis but I just do not like their at-large hopes.  They have at-large hopes but they have to be operating under the assumption that they need to get the AQ berth for the OAC.

The committee will not care on iota about Coach Moran or being respectful to him.  I may not like the process all the time but it sticks to the numbers about as closely as any tournament process of which I am aware.  Now, I do think it comes into play more bracketing, host sites, etc. but the actual selection is very data driven, in my opinion.

I think Marietta is safe... but if they stub their toes in the semis they open the door.. but I still think they are safe. I answered the JCU question in the region page, but you are right... Moran's last year won't make a damn bit of difference.

I would go so far as to say that the majority of the committee does not know Mike Moran and certainly is not aware that he is retiring.

If you are making that argument because some of the nat'l committee is not coaches... okay. But there are a lot of current and former coaches on that committee and it is chaired by the Great Lakes Region chair Kevin Vande Streek. I don't think his retirement is a surprise and maybe just one person on that committee doesn't know who Mike Moran is and I he has been getting up to speed on the nation - giving me the sense he actually might know who Moran is (the rest have been on the committee for several years).

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Operating under the assumption that ONU wins the conference tournament, it is my opinion that barring an inordinate amount of conference tournament upsets, Marietta will be in the field of 64 regardless of their performance on Saturday or in the OAC tournament.  JCU will most likely be in if they win on Saturday and without regard to their OAC tournament performance. 

I do not see many paths for ONU to get in the Field of 64 other that as an AQ.  They certainly would not hurt their cause with a win over Etta Saturday and a win over either JCU or Etta in the semis but I just do not like their at-large hopes.  They have at-large hopes but they have to be operating under the assumption that they need to get the AQ berth for the OAC.

The committee will not care on iota about Coach Moran or being respectful to him.  I may not like the process all the time but it sticks to the numbers about as closely as any tournament process of which I am aware.  Now, I do think it comes into play more bracketing, host sites, etc. but the actual selection is very data driven, in my opinion.

I think Marietta is safe... but if they stub their toes in the semis they open the door.. but I still think they are safe. I answered the JCU question in the region page, but you are right... Moran's last year won't make a damn bit of difference.

I would go so far as to say that the majority of the committee does not know Mike Moran and certainly is not aware that he is retiring.

If you are making that argument because some of the nat'l committee is not coaches... okay. But there are a lot of current and former coaches on that committee and it is chaired by the Great Lakes Region chair Kevin Vande Streek. I don't think his retirement is a surprise and maybe just one person on that committee doesn't know who Mike Moran is and I he has been getting up to speed on the nation - giving me the sense he actually might know who Moran is (the rest have been on the committee for several years).

I meant no disrespect to the members of the committee or the legitimacy of the committee.  My point is simply that there are so many D3 programs and so little inter-region interaction, I would not be surprised if many members of the committee are not aware of the coaches of particular schools, their status, longevity,  etc.  Their focus, I would assume, is on the teams and on the numbers/criteria.  I am sure there is a "fraternity" of sorts and Coach Moran has been around a long time but I think you get my point.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Capital 76
JCU 75

Capital shot the ball extremely well. JCU missed a lot of free throws and couldn't make plays down the stretch. Chance of an at-large just decreased. Likely need an OAC finals appearance for an at-large to feel safe.

[EttaFan1]

Tourney looks to be...

8 berg @ 1 mar
7 musk @ 2 jcu
6 bw @ 3 onu
5 cap @ mount

[Dr. Acula]

I can't help but wonder if with the OAC tourney starting on Tuesday if that impacted some PT yesterday for Mount.  The starting back court (Jackson and Bower-Malone) only played 10 min each (and almost all in the 1st half) at Ott in an easy win.  Foreman played 23 min and had 13 pts and 4 reb as he continues to work himself back into competitive basketball shape. 

p.s. It always makes me chuckle to see Mount's young big man in the box score.  His name is John Carroll.   

[Dr. Acula]

Cap and Mount are battling in Alliance.  43-43 just into the 2nd half.  Mount is shooting well (57%) but Cap is hurting them on the offensive glass (8-0).  Tyrel Jackson has 16 already for Cap.

[Onward on, John Carroll]

Muskingum beats Carroll 69-68 with a last second three. No tournament for JCU.

BW beat Northern.

Mount wins in OT.

[Beyond the Arc]

I was hoping to see a ONU-JCU rematch.Now both teams will be watching the rest of the OAC  and NCAA tournaments from home.  Good luck to the rest of the OAC teams.

Polar Bears had a good year.  They played well but were disappointing down the stretch.  Just could not win the big game .They are set up nicely for next year.

[EttaFan1]

I'm guessing bw wasn't expecting to host a game in the tourney.

Marietta played very poorly, cold shooting and ugly basketball.  Survived in overtime, though. The pioneers attempted 44 free throws tonight. They were 8-33 from the floor in the second half.  This game was very ugly.

Musky @ bw
Mount at Marietta.