MBB: Ohio Athletic Conference

David Collinge · February 18, 2008, 03:07:15 PM

You want tie-breaker madness? Check out the NCAC Women, who may have not one but two unbreakable three-way ties at the end of the season, one in the 2-3-4 positions , the other in the 7-8-9 positions, and both settled by the casting of lots.

kiltedbryan · February 18, 2008, 05:18:02 PM

Capital has posted a page with information about the 2008 OAC tournament.

http://www.capital.edu/17574/

I assume the site will continue to be updated as more teams/seeds are known. Links to local food/lodging and such are provided.

Basketball23 · February 18, 2008, 08:06:28 PM

Trying to figure out OAC scenarios/tourney matchups right now isn't going to do anything but cause you headaches. For Example, even though Heidelberg has locked up no worse then the 3 seed they could potentially play anyone besides Capital, Wilmington, or Marietta (only because the Pio's are eliminated from contention) Will know a lot more after wednesday. Speaking of the Berg, with OWU's loss to Earlham are the Princes the GL Region best Pool C chance?

kiltedbryan · February 18, 2008, 10:32:39 PM

This is quoted over from the multi-regional topics "Pool C" board:

Quote from: pabegg on February 18, 2008, 01:50:41 PM

GL 64 01 01 0.6098 0.5232 0.5291 Capital 012 A w C 19-3 20-3
GL 63 02 03 0.5960 0.5146 0.4883 Wooster 018 A w C 13-2 20-3
GL 62 03 02 0.5911 0.4857 0.5180 Hope 023 A w C 14-2 19-3
GL 64 04 04 0.5800 0.4973 0.5253 Heidelberg 035 C 14 16-4 18-5
GL 62 05 09 0.5770 0.5038 0.5005 Albion 037 C 15 12-3 16-5
GL 61 06 07 0.5570 0.4408 0.4964 Penn State-Behrend 044 A second 17-3 19-4
GL 61 07 06 0.5532 0.4556 0.4921 Lake Erie 053 C second 17-4 17-6
GL 63 08 05 0.5803 0.5458 0.4929 Ohio Wesleyan 056 C second 14-5 15-7
GL 64 09 10 0.5651 0.5155 0.5153 Wilmington 069 C third 15-6 15-8

OK, I've fixed the issues that I've found. DePauw drops out of Pool C, replaced by Albion.

Pabegg has a great resource there in guessing at Pool C bids. You'll notice that 'Berg will likely be slotted immediately behind the three "likely Pool A" teams in the GL.

Pabegg also rates 'Berg as receiving the 14th Pool C bid (there are 17 total). Albion is immediately behind with the 15th bid. I would consider both of those teams candidates for Pool C bids if they win all their games until their respective conference tournament finals.

Heidelberg plays Capital Wednesday. A Heidelberg win will definitely bolster 'Berg in the Pool C contention. It's unclear to me how much a loss (since it would be to a good team) would hurt its chances.

Best bet for 'Berg or Albion though, is to win their tournaments...it's the only sure way.

kiltedbryan · February 18, 2008, 10:52:45 PM

Any of my fellow posters/lurkers planning to attend Wednesday's Heidelberg/Capital tilt?

kiltedbryan · February 20, 2008, 09:08:05 PM

Final:

Heidelberg 80
Capital 74

Dynex · February 20, 2008, 09:09:01 PM

the CAP HEID game was ugly... Looked more like a team that had already won the league and a team that wanted to prove they were able to be in the same gym. The officiating was pretty ugly throughout with the teams getting physical down the streth, and Capital seemingly was bored until they found themselves down 10 with 5 minutes to play. They kicked it in gear and ran off 9 straight and then it was a FT contest for HEID down the stetch.. HEID definitely hit some big shots early in the game and then Capital had no answer inside in the second half. Im not sure what the stats were but I wouldnt be surprised if HEID outrebounded the Crusaders in their own gym... #1, and #2 seeds are set for next week. We will see how these two teams react on saturday.

Makes for an intereting OAC tourny! 8)

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2008, 01:17:21 AM

Finals from 2/20:
As per usual in the OAC, on this night 4 of the 5 worse-record teams won the games. Only Mount Union/Marietta went according to "form."

Heidelberg    80
Capital    74

John Carroll    70
Baldwin-Wallace 81

Marietta     51
Mount Union 72

Muskingum    78
Ohio Northern    72

Otterbein    80
Wilmington 67

johnworms · February 21, 2008, 05:59:04 AM

Sombody can correct me, but it looks like it will be Otterbein on the outside looking in, in terms of grabbing the 8th spot. They need to pull off the major upset Saturday at home against CAP in order to overcome all of the tie-break scenarios which are decidedly against them.

kiltedbryan · February 21, 2008, 11:08:47 AM

With a win, Ott is in the tournament regardless of what B-W or Mount Union does.
With a win and a B-W loss, Ott is the #7 seed (split with B-W; best win is Ott over Cap).
With a win and a B-W win, Ott is the #8 seed.

With a loss, Ott needs Mount Union to lose. If that happens and they are tied at 6-12, then I think this is the scenario: They split with each other. Both were swept by #1 Capital and #2 'Berg and both split with #3 Wilmington. So it comes down to who wins the #4 seed. If it's Musky, Ott is in (Ott split, Musky swept MU). If ONU claims the #4 seed, then Mount Union is in (MU and ONU would split, ONU swept Ott). So the irony there is that Mount could lose to ONU...and it could help!!

David Collinge · February 21, 2008, 12:09:45 PM

Quote from: kiltedbryan on February 21, 2008, 11:08:47 AMSo it comes down to who wins the #4 seed

ONU and Musky are presently tied at 9-8. Musky holds the tie-breaker, having swept the PBs. So ONU must beat MUC and have 'Berg beat Musky to clinch the #4 seed. If both ONU and Musky lose and JCU beats Wilma, there'd be a three-way tie at 9-9 which I think breaks ONU's way by virtue of ONU's "best win" over 'Berg. (Musky swept ONU, ONU swept JCU, JCU swept Musky.)

JK · February 21, 2008, 01:07:44 PM

The Otters are, of course, our biggest rival. While Cap is the better team, anything could happen.

I just don't like the scenario of playing OTT this weekend and then going back to back with them in the first round of the OAC.

If Cap can take care of business and eliminate the Otters, that would be doubly sweet!

kiltedbryan · February 22, 2008, 12:08:25 PM

Current Standings:

Capital (15-2)
Heidelberg (13-4)
Wilmington (10-7)
Muskingum (9-8)
Ohio Northern (9-8)
John Carroll (8-9)
Baldwin-Wallace (7-10)
Mount Union (6-11)
Otterbein (6-11)
~~Marietta (2-15)~~ (eliminated from tournament)

So I think I've worked out all the seeding possibilities:

#1 Capital
#2 Heidelberg
#3 Wilmington (owns tiebreakers on Musky and ONU)

#4 ONU/Musky Scenarios:
4a) Musky wins and/or ONU loses. Musky is the 4 seed.
4b) ONU wins and Musky loses. ONU is the 4 seed.
4c) ONU, Musky lose and JCU wins. Three-way tie at 9-9. They all swept each other; ONU owns the best win. ONU is the 4 seed (JCU is the 5, and Musky the 6).

#5 ONU/Musky/JCU Scenarios:
5a) Musky is the fifth seed only if it loses, ONU wins, and JCU loses.
5b) JCU is the fifth seed only if it wins while Musky loses. (JCU owns the tiebreaker.)
5c) ONU is the fifth seed in all other situations. (ONU is the fourth seed in 5a and 5b.)

#6 Musky/JCU/B-W
6a) JCU claims at least the sixth seed with a win. That keeps JCU clear of B-W. If Musky ties JCU at 9-9, JCU is the fifth seed, Musky is sixth (head-to-head sweep). If ONU ties JCU at 9-9, ONU is fifth, JCU is sixth (again head-to-head sweep).
6b) JCU loses and B-W wins, tie 8-10. They split; B-W has a win over Heidelberg. Advantage B-W for sixth, JCU would be the seventh seed.

#7 B-W/Ott/JCU
7a) B-W wins, JCU loses. See 6b, above. B-W is sixth, JCU seventh.
7b) B-W wins, JCU wins. B-W is seventh.
7c) Everybody (B-W, MUC, Ott) loses. B-W is the seventh seed at 7-11.

#7/#8 ties:
7/8a) B-W loses, MUC wins, Ott loses. B-W swept MUC; B-W seventh, MUC eighth, Ott is out.
7/8b) B-W loses, MUC loses, Ott wins. B-W and Ott split; Ott would have the best win (over Capital), so Ott seventh, B-W eighth and MUC sits it out.
7/8c) B-W loses, MUC and Ott win. Three-way tie at 7-11. I assume the head-to-head analysis is "best record among tied teams." So B-W is 3-1 (swept MUC, split Ott), and Ott is 2-2 (both splits), and MUC is 1-3. B-W seventh, Otterbein eighth, and have MUC misses the tourney.

#8/9 tie: (B-W wins to clinch at least seventh.)
8/9a) Ott and MUC win. Tie at 7-11. They split, but Ott just beat Capital for the best win. Ott is eighth, MUC sits it out.
8/9b) Ott and MUC lose. Tie at 6-12. Then:

Quote from: kiltedbryan on February 21, 2008, 11:08:47 AM
If they are tied at 6-12, then I think this is the scenario: They split with each other. Both were swept by #1 Capital and #2 'Berg and both split with #3 Wilmington. So it comes down to who wins the #4 seed. If it's Musky, Ott is in (Ott split, Musky swept MU). If ONU claims the #4 seed, then Mount Union is in (MU and ONU would split, ONU swept Ott).

Phew.

Corrections welcome.

JK · February 22, 2008, 03:01:14 PM

I'm just dying to get some of you outsiders to use the term "Otters" when referring to Otterbein (a Capital favorite) and "Flaming Pile" (an OAC football Post-Patterns colloquialism) when referring to BW.

kiltedbryan · February 23, 2008, 05:51:21 PM

Well I think Otterbein will need the upset tonight.

Mount Union lost to ONU while I believe that Muskingum feel to Heidelberg in double overtime. B-W won.

So, ONU is in sole possession of 4th place, which means that Mount Union will hold the 6-12 tiebreaker over Otterbein. I think they have to pull the upset to get into the tournament as the 8th seed, and earn the right to play Capital again.