BB: MIAC: Minnesota Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[d3ballguy]

Bethel did sweep SMU today, and Saint Johns swept Carleton as well.  Somewhat surprisingly, Gustavus was swept by Hamline. The battle for those third and fourth playoff spots is shaping up to be a pretty good one! Hamline is now 10-6, while Bethel and Gustavus are tied at 10-7, SJU sits at 10-8.  Should be a fun ride, with Hamline still having doubleheaders with both Saint Johns and Bethel. Things are going to get exciting over the weekend and into the beginning of next week!

[d3ballguy]

**Correction** Hamline still has doubleheaders with MAC and Bethel, not Saint Johns.

[Gustie13]

GAC did a great choke act yesterday, I don't want to talk about it.  

I think its great that 8 teams still have playoff chances with only 1 or 2 DHs left. StO and USt are guaranteed spots, so that leaves 6 teams fighitng for 2 spots! There is the possibility for a number of teams to finish 12-8, which would cause a trainwreck of tie-breakers scenarios. Here are the Tiebreaker rules:
Tournament Seeding Tie Breakers
1. Head to head results
2. Results against other teams in playoffs
3. Results against teams not in playoffs from highest finish to lowest finish
4. Coin toss

Teams fighting for the last 2 playoff spots-
3: HU 10-6 - Mac and BU remaining
4: BU 10-7 - HU and StO (1) remaining
5: AUG 8-6 - USt, GAC, Con remaining
6: GAC 10-8 - AUG (i'm counting their SMU game as a loss since they are restarting it in the 4th inn down 7-1)
7: SJU 10-8 - StO remaining
8: Con 6-8 - SMU, USt, AUG remaining

Historically 12-8 has been the cutoff for making the MIAC playoffs. Since the playoffs began in 2000 only 1 team that finished with a record better than 12-8 HAS NOT made the playoff, and no team that has had a record worse than 12-8 HAS made the playoffs. Finishing 12-8 gives you about a 60/40 chance of making the playoffs (8 teams have finished with that record, 5 have made the playoffs).

I'm not giving SJU or Con much of a chance, both would need to sweep their remaining games against top competition to finish 12-8. That would leave HU, BU, AUG and GAC fighting for the 2 spots.
If I had to make a prediction i'd say HU and GAC get in. These 2 teams have the best records against possible tiebreaker teams (HU, GAC, BU, AUG, SJU, & CON), which gives them an edge assuming it comes down to the first tiebreaker (although GAC better hope it doesn't get to Tiebreaker #2!!)
GAC 8-2, HU 5-3, BU 4-4, AUG 3-3, SJU 4-6, Con 2-6.

[Gustie13]

Somewhat off topic, but here is how I would rank the MIAC programs. I chose to start with 2000 since that is when the playoffs started and it provides any even number of years so I can gauge Improvements.
I took a look at a few things - Avg Reg season finish (1=first, 11=last), Playoff Appearances, and Individual Award Winners (I used any improvements from '00-'03 avgs to '04-'07 avgs to make adjustments as I saw fit). Here is what i came up with:

Team, Avg Finish, Playoff Appearances, and Individual Award Winners
1) USt (1.5, 8, 7) - Reg Season champ last 5 years. 2000 nat'l champs. Last year solidified for me that they are a level above StO now, StO was loaded with talent but USt still won the MIAC playoffs (granted, StOs two best pitchers were hurt, but the offense didn't step up either, averaging only 3.5runs/game in 4 games).
2) StO (1.9, 8, 7) - Clear cut #2 program to me. Won 3 straight reg season titles from '00-'02. Have taken a step back since then, imo.
3) GAC (4.5, 4, 5) - I'm obviously biased, but I think GAC is above the rest of the MIAC at #3. They've got more Playoff Appearances and Individual Award winners than anyone below them (including 4 of the past 6 Player of the Years), and have finished no worse than 5th since 2001.
4) Con (4.8, 2, 3) - I think this rank will surprise some people, I know I was surprised when I saw Con's Avg Finish. That just shows how out of character last year's 8th place finish really was. Heck, they're the only team with someone in the Majors!
5) BU (6.8, 1, 0) - I bumped them ahead of SJU (despite a worse Avg Finish) because they've improved their finishes considerably over the past 4 years (00-03 Avg Record: 7-13, 04-07 Avg Record: 11-9). It'll be interesting to see how the programs does next year without a Carr on the team =)
6) HU (7.4, 1, 0) - Also bumped ahead of SJU because of recent improvements to the program, although if/when Verdugo bolts it could set HU back.
7) SJU (6.1, 1, 0) - I dropped SJU behind HU and BU because there hasn't been much improvement over the years, and in fact they were getting worse and worse until last years 3rd place finish. I also think Coach Haugen's teams are usually one-dimensional offensively (PULL PULL PULL).
8) AUG (8.0, 1, 0) - Have made the most improvement (00-03 Avg Record: 4-16, 04-07 Avg Record: 9-11) but can't seem to put it all together.
9) SMU (7.1, 2, 2) - Have fallen the furthest, which is too bad since this used to be a great program (3rd most Conf Titles). Have not finished better than 8th the past 4 years and don't appear to be changing any that any time soon.
10) MAC (8.0, 1, 0) - Not much of a playoff threat anymore, although they were pretty good from 99-02.
11) CAR (10.0, 0, 1) - Have not finished better than 8th in 12 years. Nuff said.

I think the divisions between teams 1 through 4 are pretty distinct, meaning, I think USt is the clear #1, StO the clear #2, etc. UST and STO are automatic playoff teams, GAC and CON are consistently there (only the 2000 playoffs didn't feature one or the other). Once you get to BU at #5 I think it gets blurry between 5-8 (BU, HU, SJU, AUG). These are the teams that every couple of years may have a team good enough to make the playoffs. SMU has fallen back enough that I consider them on the same (lower) level as MAC and CAR.

Thoughts?

[Bronko7]

That is some good work, I agree completely with those assessments. You can count on the Oles & Tommies year after year, it is almost more exciting to see who wants to take those 3 and 4 spots. This year is a great example, there is a week left and who knows how it will end up.

[bigbadbaseballman]

Great rankings...I would have to agree with them all. 
Teams like Olaf and Thomas year after year are going to contend because of the winning traditions they have brought to the schools.  They have great coaching and nice facilities to draw in recruits that apparently the Gophs cant get( cheap shot)
Another characteristic you notice about elite teams in MN/WI is the number of players they have on their rosters.  The games I have seen this year you notice 30 or more guys dressing and even more playing j/v.  Its a huge advantage to have that many talented guys to pick and choose from to fill holes on your roster.

[Gustie13]

HU dropped the ball today against MAC. They lost game 1 which meant they had to start Roiger in game 2, and still almost lost a 6 run lead in the 7th. That means they go in to their DH with Roiger on short rest (I doubt Coach Verdugo has an reservations about pitching him on short rest with their season on the line).
StO swept SJU, eliminating the Johnnies from playoff contention.

I'm going to take a stab at the playoff scenarios as it stands right now:
HU- 11-7 BU dh remaining
BU- 11-7 HU dh remaining
GAC- 10-8 AUG dh remaining
AUG- 8-8 GAC, CON dh remaining
Con is not mathematically eliminated, but for this exercise I won't include them.

If GAC sweeps AUG:
Aug eliminated
GAC in playoffs regardless of HU-BU
HU in playoffs with sweep or split
BU in playoffs with sweep
Here's why- if HU or BU sweeps then one team ends up 13-7 while the other ends up 11-9. If gac sweeps then they finish 12-8. If HU/BU split then all 3 teams end up 12-8 and by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker HU (3-1 record vs BU/GAC) and GAC (2-2 record vs HU/BU) finish ahead of BU (1-3 record vs HU/GAC).

If GAC/AUG split AND AUG sweeps CON:
GAC & AUG eliminated if HU/BU split (HU/BU both make playoffs in that case)
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU (HU,AUG,GAC would all be tied at 11-9, AUG is 3-1 vs GAC/HU, HU is 2-2 vs AUG/GAC, GAC is 1-3 vs HU/AUG)
HU & GAC in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (BU,AUG,GAC would all be tied at 11-9, GAC is 3-1 vs AUG/BU, AUG is 2-2 vs GAC/BU, BU is 1-3 vs GAC/AUG)

If GAC/AUG split AND AUG splits or is swept by CON:
AUG eliminated
GAC eliminated if HU/BU split or if BU sweeps (HU/BU both make playoffs in that case)
HU & GAC in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (GAC-BU tied at 11-9, GAC in because it swept BU)

If AUG sweeps GAC AND is swept by CON:
GAC & AUG eliminated

If AUG sweeps GAC AND splits with CON:
GAC eliminated
AUG eliminated if HU/BU split
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU (by virtue of 2nd tiebreaker)
HU & AUG in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (by virtue of 3rd tiebreaker)

If AUG sweeps GAC AND sweeps CON:
GAC eliminated
BU & AUG in playoffs if HU/BU split
HU & AUG in playoffs if HU sweeps BU
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU

GAC-AUG is 5/4, BU-HU is 5/5, and AUG/CON is 5-6

[supermiac]

HU dropped the ball today against MAC. They lost game 1 which meant they had to start Roiger in game 2, and still almost lost a 6 run lead in the 7th. That means they go in to their DH with Roiger on short rest (I doubt Coach Verdugo has an reservations about pitching him on short rest with their season on the line).
StO swept SJU, eliminating the Johnnies from playoff contention.

I'm going to take a stab at the playoff scenarios as it stands right now:
HU- 11-7 BU dh remaining
BU- 11-7 HU dh remaining
GAC- 10-8 AUG dh remaining
AUG- 8-8 GAC, CON dh remaining
Con is not mathematically eliminated, but for this exercise I won't include them.

If GAC sweeps AUG:
Aug eliminated
GAC in playoffs regardless of HU-BU
HU in playoffs with sweep or split
BU in playoffs with sweep
Here's why- if HU or BU sweeps then one team ends up 13-7 while the other ends up 11-9. If gac sweeps then they finish 12-8. If HU/BU split then all 3 teams end up 12-8 and by virtue of the 2nd tiebreaker HU (3-1 record vs BU/GAC) and GAC (2-2 record vs HU/BU) finish ahead of BU (1-3 record vs HU/GAC).

If GAC/AUG split AND AUG sweeps CON:
GAC & AUG eliminated if HU/BU split (HU/BU both make playoffs in that case)
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU (HU,AUG,GAC would all be tied at 11-9, AUG is 3-1 vs GAC/HU, HU is 2-2 vs AUG/GAC, GAC is 1-3 vs HU/AUG)
HU & GAC in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (BU,AUG,GAC would all be tied at 11-9, GAC is 3-1 vs AUG/BU, AUG is 2-2 vs GAC/BU, BU is 1-3 vs GAC/AUG)

If GAC/AUG split AND AUG splits or is swept by CON:
AUG eliminated
GAC eliminated if HU/BU split or if BU sweeps (HU/BU both make playoffs in that case)
HU & GAC in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (GAC-BU tied at 11-9, GAC in because it swept BU)

If AUG sweeps GAC AND is swept by CON:
GAC & AUG eliminated

If AUG sweeps GAC AND splits with CON:
GAC eliminated
AUG eliminated if HU/BU split
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU (by virtue of 2nd tiebreaker)
HU & AUG in playoffs if HU sweeps BU (by virtue of 3rd tiebreaker)

If AUG sweeps GAC AND sweeps CON:
GAC eliminated
BU & AUG in playoffs if HU/BU split
HU & AUG in playoffs if HU sweeps BU
BU & AUG in playoffs if BU sweeps HU

GAC-AUG is 5/4, BU-HU is 5/5, and AUG/CON is 5-6

Hamline had a good shot to essentially clinch a spot today. They got overpowered by a good pitcher in game one; however I still think they are the far and away favorite for the 3rd spot in the playoffs. I like their chances against Bethel (who I think have overperformed this year). I'm not sure about the last spot though. I think Gustavus has the edge here; since Bethel still has to play a single game against Olaf and a DH against Hamline.

[Gustie13]

I think BU will take at least one game against HU, they have all their top pitchers rested while HU will most likely use Roiger on 2 days rest and then their #3.
I have BU listed at 11-7, I was assuming they beat Olaf (because BU will have something to play for while StO doesn't. The game is so close to playoffs I don't know if StO throws anyone good in that single game)

[supermiac]

I think BU will take at least one game against HU, they have all their top pitchers rested while HU will most likely use Roiger on 2 days rest and then their #3.
I have BU listed at 11-7, I was assuming they beat Olaf (because BU will have something to play for while StO doesn't. The game is so close to playoffs I don't know if StO throws anyone good in that single game)

I'm not sure about the HU-BU series. I think Hamline's hitting is a head above Bethel's; so I'm not sure if BU pitching their #1 or #2 guarantees anything for them. I would also say that StO will probably take the game from BU. Bethel has to pitch their #3 or #4, and it's not like StO is going to lay down and die for any team, regardless of place in the conference standings. Even the #3-#5 pitchers for St. Olaf are pretty good, so who knows. All I know is that this is shaping up to be a great finish to a very interesting season, just like I'd hoped for. 

[OshDude]

I think BU will take at least one game against HU, they have all their top pitchers rested while HU will most likely use Roiger on 2 days rest and then their #3.
I have BU listed at 11-7, I was assuming they beat Olaf (because BU will have something to play for while StO doesn't. The game is so close to playoffs I don't know if StO throws anyone good in that single game)

I'm not sure about the HU-BU series. I think Hamline's hitting is a head above Bethel's; so I'm not sure if BU pitching their #1 or #2 guarantees anything for them. I would also say that StO will probably take the game from BU. Bethel has to pitch their #3 or #4, and it's not like StO is going to lay down and die for any team, regardless of place in the conference standings. Even the #3-#5 pitchers for St. Olaf are pretty good, so who knows. All I know is that this is shaping up to be a great finish to a very interesting season, just like I'd hoped for. 

I think the Oles are still alive for a Pool C bid should they win out and finish 20-6 in-region. Point could finish about 21-10 or 22-9 in-region after playing Whitewater. Point's OWP is better, but three or four fewer losses for StO could cancel out that advantage. In any event, StO is right there with Point, IMO.

[Gustie13]

GAC swept AUG today, they have clinched a spot. HU-BU now play for the final spot.

[Gustie13]

Here is where the scenarios shake out now that GAC has clinched:

-Bethel sweeps Hamline, Bethel loses to St Olaf, and Concordia sweeps St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
GAC 12-8 (4-0 record vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
BU 12-8 (2-2 record vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
CON 12-8 (0-4 record vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
HU 11-9

-Bethel sweeps Hamline, Bethel loses to St Olaf, and Concordia loses ANY game vs St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
GAC 12-8 (2-0 record vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
BU 12-8 (0-2 record vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
HU 11-9
CON 11-9 (or worse)

-Bethel sweeps Hamline, Bethel beats St Olaf, and Concordia sweeps St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
BU 13-7 (playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (2-0 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
CON 12-8 (0-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
HU 11-9

-Bethel sweeps Hamline, Bethel beats St Olaf, and Concordia loses ANY game vs St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
BU 13-7 (playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (playoff 4 seed)
HU 11-9
CON 11-9 (or worse)

-Hamline sweeps Bethel, Bethel W/L vs St Olaf (game becomes irrelevant), and Concordia sweeps St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 13-7 (playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (2-0 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
CON 12-8 (0-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
BU 11-9 (or 10-10 depending on outcome vs St Olaf)

-Hamline sweeps Bethel, Bethel W/L vs St Olaf (game becomes irrelevant), and Concordia loses ANY game vs St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 13-7 (playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (playoff 4 seed)
BU 11-9 (or 10-10 depending on outcome vs St Olaf)
CON 11-9 (or worse)

-Hamline and Bethel split, Bethel beats St Olaf, and Concordia sweeps St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 12-8 (5-1 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (4-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
BU 12-8 (3-3 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
CON 12-8 (0-6 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)

-Hamline and Bethel split, Bethel beats St Olaf, and Concordia loses ANY game vs St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 12-8 (3-1 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (2-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
BU 12-8 (1-3 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
CON 11-9 (or worse)

-Hamline and Bethel split, Bethel loses to St Olaf, and Concordia sweeps St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 12-8 (4-0 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (2-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
CON 12-8 (0-4 vs other teams with 12-8 record, eliminated from playoffs)
BU 11-9

-Hamline and Bethel split, Bethel loses to St Olaf, and Concordia loses ANY game vs St Marys, St Thomas, and Augsburg:
HU 12-8 (2-0 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 3 seed)
GAC 12-8 (0-2 vs other teams with 12-8 record, playoff 4 seed)
BU 11-9
CON 11-9 (or worse)

TO SUMMARIZE:
If Hamline sweeps or splits with Bethel then Hamline is the 3 seed and GAC is the 4 seed. If Bethel sweeps Hamline and beats St Olaf then Bethel is the 3 seed and GAC is the 4 seed. And if Bethel sweeps Hamline but loses to St Olaf GAC is the 3 seed and Bethel is the 4 seed.

[supermiac]

POY and Pitcher of Year anyone?

I think Pitcher of Year is easy with Roiger, but POY is tricky. Bullis had a great season; but I think Kaczrowski's numbers and production were much better, therefore I'd give it to him. Any thoughts?

[BaseballFan]

Roiger and Kaczrowski

Kaczrowski production was much better and if you look at just conference stats (good to look at because they have same opponents) his are much better than Bullis's