MBB: NEWMAC

[Hugenerd]

Harvard beats WPI by 15, 69-54.

[WPI89]

If WPI beats RIC and Fitchburg (a big if) - do they stay in the top 25 with the loss to D1 Harvard?

Looks to be a real competitive NEWMAC season coming up - will be fun.

[mass_d3fan]

Lets use last year's MIT-Harvard game as the basis for looking at this.

Last year, MIT lost by 27 to Harvard when they were ranked #22 in D3. WPI stayed in contention throught this game, trailing by no  more more than 15 at any point in the second half and got it to single digits twice.  They trailed by only 12 with 3:46 to go.  Harvard did not go deep into its bench down the stretch.  Last year's MIT-Harvard game was over at the 13 min. mark of the 2nd half.

Now, MIT was #22 on December 28th when they lost to Harvard - on January 5th going into a 12-pt win over Tufts - They were 15th.  So obviously a loss to a D1 team should not have any impact on WPI's position in the polls. (Assuming they finish the week with wins over RIC & Fitchburg St.)  As matter of fact, given they played as well as they did against a team that Sports Illustrated picked to win their conference and make the NCAA tournament should indeed enhance their position.

[mass_d3fan]

Correction:

MIT was 11-0 and ranked #22 with 132 points then moved to #21 after the Harvard Loss with 144 points  and then to #15 with 236 votes.  Now due to their schedule (finals, Christmas) the only game played in that span was the Harvard Loss. Now, one also has to factor in that they were at that time unbeaten Vs D3 teams, but it is obvious that losing to Harvard had absoultely no impact on their standing in poll.

[Hugenerd]

Losses to D1 schools dont have any impact, but there are some things you are ignoring in this comparison:

1) Harvard had Jeremy Lin last season, who now plays for the Golden State Warriors.

2) MIT was down by 15 with about 4.5 minutes to play last year, which is about the same margin that there was in the WPI game last night, except the end of MIT's bench was outscored 12-0 in the final 4.5.

3) MIT was down by as little as 6 early in the second half, and the game was predominantly a single digit game the first 22 or so minutes of that game (MIT even lead by 6 early in the first).  Meanwhile WPI never led, got down by double digits 13 minutes into the game and trailed by double digits the rest of the game except for a 30 second period in which they cut it to 8.  Therefore, I dont think your "MIT game was over with 13 minutes to play" metric is valid, because MIT cut it to 15 at about the same mark WPI was down by about 12 last night.

My point is not that MIT played Harvard tougher or not, just that the games were pretty similar and that you cant read too much into a 15 point margin vs. a 27 point margin, when MIT probably could have lost by fewer than 15 if Coach Anderson had not cleared his bench with 4.5 to play.  In any case, I dont think this hurts, or particularly helps, WPI's D3 standing at all.  Lets see how MIT does this year against Harvard, in just over 3 weeks.

[mass_d3fan]

Hugenerd,

Not to argue – I respect your insight too much – but....

1) Harvard had Jeremy Lin last season, who now plays for the Golden State Warriors.

    -> Not ignoring that at all, but he left the game 6:45 to go and the lead was 18. While Lin was without a doubt a top end player, this year's Crimson was picked by Sports Illustrated to make the dance in March.  So it is not like this team has fallen way off with the loss of last year's star.

2) MIT was down by 15 with about 4.5 minutes to play last year, which is about the same margin that there was in the WPI game last night, except the end of MIT's bench was outscored 12-0 in the final 4.5.

    -> Not quite true, the "end of the bench" didn't enter the game for MIT until under 1:30 left in the game at which point the lead was 23.

3) MIT was down by as little as 6 early in the second half, and the game was predominantly a single digit game the first 22 or so minutes of that game (MIT even lead by 6 early in the first).  Meanwhile WPI never led, got down by double digits 13 minutes into the game and trailed by double digits the rest of the game except for a 30 second period in which they cut it to 8.  Therefore, I dont think your "MIT game was over with 13 minutes to play" metric is valid, because MIT cut it to 15 at about the same mark WPI was down by about 12 last night.

   -> Last year, the score was consistently 16-20 from roughly 13 minutes on. Except for a couple of points where is got to 15 and was bounced right back up. Your right on point that WPI did not lead and got off slowly, but after that slow start, they played the remainder of the game dead even with Harvard's best players.  4 of their starters logged 17,17, 19 & 19 minutes in the 2nd half and they were never able to put the Engineers away as one usually sees in these D1-D3 matchups.


My point is not that MIT played Harvard tougher or not, just that the games were pretty similar and that you cant read too much into a 15 point margin vs. a 27 point margin, when MIT probably could have lost by fewer than 15 if Coach Anderson had not cleared his bench with 4.5 to play.  In any case, I dont think this hurts, or particularly helps, WPI's D3 standing at all.  Lets see how MIT does this year against Harvard, in just over 3 weeks.

-> Again, the "end of the bench" didn't enter the game for MIT until Sissman(1:22), Lehto(1:02) and the other s at 0:25.  The end margin was already over the 20 mark before they entered.


This was all about comparing how a loss to a good D1 team would affect WPI's position in the polls.  Since it is the same team and both teams were ranked in the 20's before the game, it is as good a comparison as one will find. I agree that this kind of loss should be factored in, but since MIT actually gained votes, there is an effect at play.  Obviously if a ranked team beats a D1 team, they will get credit for that in the voting.  So playing a good game and losing will also have some impact even if it is not much.

Last night, WPI was consistently keeping the game a possession or two from single digits and not letting the Crimson make a run and put the game away.  True they never got it below 10 after that one point, but then again, the lead never got more than 15 and every time it did (except the last time with a minute to go) WPI answered back.  Basically from the point where Harvard got that first 13-point lead at 5:58 in the first half the game was basically even for the remaining 26 minutes.  From that point of view, WPI's level of play did not diminish as MIT's did the year before.

I agree this is in part an apples-n-oranges comparison, but heck – its fun! Since MIT did not fall in the polls at all despite the loss, one can hope that if WPI wins its other 2 games this week they should remain in top 25 and possibly move up.


I did attend the game last night, getting a couple of associates to make a night of it with dinner & the game.

I will look back at my little notes, lol, yes every  once in while I scribble something down during the game to help me recall something I notice, and post my observations.  Gotta go eat - wife is yelling for me to get off the computer!

I believe MIT will do equally as well or better than WPI did.  Having already experienced this once and playing well against Harvard last year will give them an advantage that WPI did not have.  I also believe that MIT's interior crew will have an advantage as a group.  The difference will most likely be how well MIT defends the 3 and not getting into foul difficulty.

[Hugenerd]

Whatever argument you use, to abbreviate, MIT played them pretty cloe the first 30 minutes of their game last season, and WPI played them pretty close the last 30 minutes of their game last night.  I wanted WPI to do well also, it looks good for the conference. 

Also, Coach Anderson started bring in his bench at 3.5 minutes, and brought in the entire bench over the next couple of minutes,as you stated.

Finally, the fact that Harvard was picked to win the Ivy League does not mean this years team is any better or equal to last years team.  In fact, I think they are probably significantly worse without Lin.  He did everything for them last year. How often does the Ivy league have an NBA-level player?  Not to mention all his experience.  The main reason they are the best Ivy League team is not because they got significantly better, but becaue Cornell graduated all their best players so now there is no relative "power" in the conference.

[leelowlang]

Most Productive/Efficient NEWMAC Players Thus Far?

Using NBA Effeciency Rating:

(Pts + Rebs + Asts + Stls + Blks) - ((FGA-FGM) + (FTA-FTM) + TO) =

Total divided by GP = per game average

MIT - Tashman - 20.8
WPI - Carr - 15.3
CGA - Sowers - 17.3
Springfield - Cavalieri - 17.9
Babson - Noonan - 14.3
Clark - Vayda - 22.5
Wheaton - Coppola - 14.2

[toooldtoplay]

I have two comments on the recent threads.  Although MIT played tough the game was NEVER in doubt. Lin turned it up when needed and the bigs dominated the game for Harvard on the glass. Any time a team is up over 10 points against a team it considers much weaker the final score really doesn't matter as the effort is only blah. You get no kudos from anyone except the hardcore fans for an amost.

Using an NBA effeciency rating is not real accurate at this level as it favors the big men over the guards every time. Steals and assists are never kept that accurately while the other categories are more precise. 

MIT/Harvard - could it be a game with 3 minutes to play? Need to beat Salem tonight.

[Hugenerd]

Both WPI and MIT escape with 1 point wins tonight.  WPI gets by RIC in OT, 60-59, and MIT gets by Salem State on the road, 76-75.  Both teams trailed going into their final possession, but both were able to get 2 for the win.

[toooldtoplay]

Salem State was tough tonight as they killed MIT on the boards with 17 offensive boards and hit alot of big shots.  Tavone and Clarke were clutch all night.  With Salem State going up 2 with 19 seconds left Kates penetrated the 2-3 zone, found Tashman in the short corner for a contested jumper which bounced off the rim. Kates chased it down near the 3 point line, got fouled and knocked down 2 to seal it with 5 seconds left. Hollingsworth appears to be getting back slowly and played 25 reserve minutes. Kates had 5 treys in the first half and finished with 22.

Salem looks to be a decent group this year. They are very athletic and will give teams problems but should have been handled more easily if this is truly a national level team.

[mass_d3fan]

Finally getting around to posting this after having worked on reports since I got home from the game.

WPI came out with a hard fought win in OT over Rhode Island College.  I have been fortunate enough to see these last two WPI games.  On Tuesday they held their own against D1 Harvard and seemed a bit out of sorts tonight, but got some big performances from Carr, Robinson & Shannon to get the win. Other players made key plays throughout the game.  Ricardo Bonhomme came off the bench to contribute 7 points and 6 boards.  Kyle Nadeau hit a huge 3 as the shot clock expired to tie the game at 51.  Shannon struggled most of the game but his only FG was a conventional 3-pts play that tied the game with 16 seconds left in regulation.  Robinson also struggled on the evening and was held scoreless until OT where he scored all 6 of WPI's points, including the game winner.

From what I have seen this week, I think we are seeing the emergence of another quality big man in the NEWMAC.  The Engineer's junior center, Matt Carr, has played well all year, but this week he has seriously stepped it up on the defensive end and continues to improve offensively.  Earlier this week he had the primary defensive assignment on Keith Wright at Harvard as the Engineers held him well under his average.  Tonight, he held RIC's top scorer, Mike Akinrola, scoreless. Overall he had a huge game with 15 points, 9 boards, 5 blocks and 4 steals.  He made life miserable for RIC inside with the blocks and altered many other shots including Choice's final shot.

On the RIC side, Mason Choice had a double-double with 15 points on 5 of 13 shooting and 11 boards. Carl Lee also posted double figures with a game high 16 points. .Nick Manson led the Anchormen in the first half hitting a trio of 3's and finishing with 12 points.

WPI plays Fitchburg St. on Saturday which should be an easy win, but as MIT as seen twice now this year – those "easy" wins are not always so easy.  I hope WPI does not assume just walking on the court on Sat. equals a win.


In other action in the NEWMAC it looks like Clark got pummeled by Becker, 82-58. NEWMAC top scorer Brian Vayda was held to 12 points.

Babson got crushed by Amherst, 104-72. Matt Zoia led the Beavers with 22 points.

Coast Guard lost to Roger Williams, 68-61.  Jevon James led CG with 16 points. Adam Radtke & Greg Marshall booth chipped in with 13.

[WPI89]

Fairly rough night for NEWMAC teams - got a little love on the front page of D3hoops though ("Engineering Wins"). 

These wins (for WPI and MIT) are huge - doesn't matter at this point if they are by 12 or by 1 it seems.  Not sure if either team will be good enough in 3 months to be thinking at large (MIT may have a better shot) but piling up wins now is huge - especially since it seems like most nights in conference will be tough.

[Hugenerd]

mas-d3 - I was impressed with Carr even last season, he just wasnt getting the minutes then.  I think he is a quality player.

The players that should be putting up big numbers, though, arent doing that great:

Jeff Robinson hasnt lived up at all to his 2nd Team Preseason AA billing, scoring only 13 ppg, on 43% shooting.

Hollingsworth has also been slow to start, although some of that can be attributed to the injuries he is playing through.  He has produced pretty well when his in the game, however.  So far this season, he has only played in 5 games, starting in 2, and is playing about 20 minutes per game, which is more than 10 minutes less per game than last season (or about 50% less game action per contest).  Despite that, he is averaging 14.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg, and 1.2 bpg. If you scale those numbers up by about 50% (just for arguments sake), you get numbers closer to what he produced last year, and what you would expect from a first team all-american: 20+ ppg, 10+ rpg, and almost 2 bpg. I think he will get it turned around soon, as Coach Anderson is slowly working him back into the lineup.

With respect to last nights game: MIT, in general, plays much better at home than on the road.  They are going to need to figure out how to play away from Rockwell if they want to make some noise on the national scene this year.

[mass_d3fan]

Nerd,

  In some of the games I have made it to, It has looked at times like Robinson was pressing just a bit.  Another factor in the slow start, in my mind, is the substitution pattern that the Engineers have been using.  They were rotating a lot of guys in & out in short bursts.  It is really hard to get into a rhythm with kind of style.  Last year Robinson averaged over 30 minutes per game and so far this year he has only played 30 or more in 2 of the 8 games and under 20 in 3 of them.   The same is true for Ben Etten who has averaged 30 minutes a game for last 2 years is averaging 24 this season with 3 games under 20.  I am not sure why this has changed this season, but I do think it is a component to Robinson's struggles during this first 3rd of the season. Now, that being said, they did not use that same substitution pattern at Harvard or last night against RIC after the early part of the game.

The MIT/WPI match-ups this year should be yield some great basketball.  I still think the edge has to go to MIT just because of  2 factors: 1) that big front line and the commitment that Coach Anderson has made to using it & 2) Kates creates a matchup nightmare for WPI.

Good Luck to all the NEWMAC teams this weekend.  I have to pay the piper (i.e. -the wife) now for my game excursions this week.