MBB: NEWMAC

[BaboNation]

WPI non-Conference:

Worcester State
Rutgers-Newark
Me-Farmington
Emmanuel
Fitchburg State
Hamilton
Husson
Salem State
St Joseph (CT) Tourney (Christmas Week)  WPI vs Eastern CT and St Joes v SUNY POLY

Think that leaves one more?

Seems like they'd play Tufts every year.  I wonder if they've swapped Hamilton for Tufts. 

[SpringSt7]

They didn't play Tufts last year either so that would check out. Seems like a much harder trip.

[BaboNation]

Babson & MIT have posted rosters.

https://www.babsonathletics.com/sports/m-baskbl/2022-23/roster

https://mitathletics.com/sports/mens-basketball/roster?path=mbball

Now that I've picked my jaw up off the floor, Kieran Dorney is not listed for Babson.  He would have been their top returning scorer and only a junior.  Not sure if he transferred, but he'd provide immediate production to any D2/D3 program.  Different circumstances for sure, but somewhat reminiscent of another xfer, Crew Ainge, who also turned out to be a one year phenomenon.
And while Alex Cho had a year of eligibility remaining, his apparent loss at MIT is equally damaging.  Kostolansky also had a year left, but he too is missing.  Although he wasn't the same presence as Cho he would have been very useful this year with the other losses to graduation.  Can't expect everyone to use their Covid year.  Life happens.

It also caught my eye that 2 would-be seniors are not listed for Babson:  Matt Corey and Dave Crouch.  While neither was starting or particularly productive it's curious, especially for Corey who had been with the program for 3 years.  Dave's brother Rob (both xfers last year) is also not listed after seeing action in 18 games as a FY.  In total, 12 players from last year's 21-man roster are gone.

So Babson has 2 seniors and a new grad xfer guard, while MIT has no seniors at all.
It's only October, and forecasts this early are probably worthless, but if neither Babson nor MIT are in the top 4 of the NEWMAC, well, without looking it up, I'm not sure that's ever happened before.

[nescac1]

Wow, those are big losses. 

MIT is not surprising -- they always have a very high attrition rate because the academic work load is so insane there.  But man, MIT has been on quite a downward trajectory ... 2018: 25-6, two-point loss in Elite 8; 2019: 23-5, blown out in second round; 2020: 12-13; 2022: 13-12; and 2023 looks VERY rough unless their frosh are REALLY good REALLY fast ... only six returning guys who COMBINED scored 15 ppg last year on a mehh team.  They could well be the worst team in the NEWMAC this year.  No knock on Larry Anderson -- he's an elite coach, and it was always a miracle that he could get such high-level players between MIT's insane admissions standards for athletes and how many guys burned out on the varsity hoops - academics combo.

As for Babson, wow, those are big losses, especially combined with losing a very strong graduating class (and only one transfer, which is light for Babson of late).  Dorney was really good down the stretch (15.3 ppg and 9.1 rpb while lighting it up from 3 vs. strong competition), I saw him as a dark-horse all-American candidate and with Adamo one of the best 1-2 punches in D3.  Now, a lot is going to rest on Adamo's shoulders.  Babson plays its usual tough non-league schedule (Tufts, St. Joe's, Amherst, Hope and Brandeis are the highlights) so it's going to be a real challenge for them. 

It does seem like WPI and Emerson are WAY ahead of the field in NESCAC this year (Emerson hasn't posted its roster yet but my understanding is that most of its key seniors are returning for a fifth year, including Waterhouse and Houston).  And it also seems like this opens the door for a dark horse in NEWMAC ... not sure who that might be, though. 

[BaboNation]

Wow, those are big losses. 

MIT is not surprising -- they always have a very high attrition rate because the academic work load is so insane there.  But man, MIT has been on quite a downward trajectory ... 2018: 25-6, two-point loss in Elite 8; 2019: 23-5, blown out in second round; 2020: 12-13; 2022: 13-12; and 2023 looks VERY rough unless their frosh are REALLY good REALLY fast ... only six returning guys who COMBINED scored 15 ppg last year on a mehh team.  They could well be the worst team in the NEWMAC this year.  No knock on Larry Anderson -- he's an elite coach, and it was always a miracle that he could get such high-level players between MIT's insane admissions standards for athletes and how many guys burned out on the varsity hoops - academics combo.

As for Babson, wow, those are big losses, especially combined with losing a very strong graduating class (and only one transfer, which is light for Babson of late).  Dorney was really good down the stretch (15.3 ppg and 9.1 rpb while lighting it up from 3 vs. strong competition), I saw him as a dark-horse all-American candidate and with Adamo one of the best 1-2 punches in D3.  Now, a lot is going to rest on Adamo's shoulders.  Babson plays its usual tough non-league schedule (Tufts, St. Joe's, Amherst, Hope and Brandeis are the highlights) so it's going to be a real challenge for them. 

It does seem like WPI and Emerson are WAY ahead of the field in NESCAC this year (Emerson hasn't posted its roster yet but my understanding is that most of its key seniors are returning for a fifth year, including Waterhouse and Houston).  And it also seems like this opens the door for a dark horse in NEWMAC ... not sure who that might be, though.

I wouldn't want you to share info that would make you uncomfortable, but I'm curious about Houston and Waterhouse returning.  I'm certainly not in their orbit, but I haven't seen anything on that.

[nescac1]

I have no personal info on the Emerson guys, just stuff I saw on social media.  Houston, at least, appeared to confirm in a Twitter exchange with a D3hoops pollster that he was returning.  If he's back it's just a monster year for veteran big men in New England - Sobel, Houston, Adams, Nate Karren, Jeff Hunter ...

[Greek Tragedy]

FWIW, his Twitter account has Emerson '23.

[BaboNation]

nescac1 & Greek

Thanks

[Greek Tragedy]

It's been confirmed that Houston is back. Waterhouse is not.

[BaboNation]

WPI non-Conference:

Worcester State
Rutgers-Newark
Me-Farmington
Emmanuel
Fitchburg State
Hamilton
Husson
Salem State
St Joseph (CT) Tourney (Christmas Week)  WPI vs Eastern CT and St Joes v SUNY POLY

Think that leaves one more?

Taking another look at what WPI has posted for a schedule it looks a little different.  No game against Eastern CT.  Instead it's SUNYIT.  And it doesn't look like a holiday tournament with games 11 days apart at 2 different venues.

https://athletics.wpi.edu/sports/mbkb/2022-23/schedule

And they always used to play a game on the last weekend of November, but no game this year after Nov 22nd.
I imagine they couldn't find a date that worked for an opponent, but as a fan I'd sure have liked to see how they matched up with a Nichols, Keene State, Williams, etc.
There will probably be some games where they let their guard down a little, but other than St. Joe's (a home game) it's not unlikely they enter conference play 10-0 and while conference rivalries always get the juices flowing it's hard to see a strong challenger there either.

[Pat Coleman]

I have no personal info on the Emerson guys, just stuff I saw on social media.  Houston, at least, appeared to confirm in a Twitter exchange with a D3hoops pollster that he was returning.  If he's back it's just a monster year for veteran big men in New England - Sobel, Houston, Adams, Nate Karren, Jeff Hunter ...

Houston is indeed listed as returning in the info provided by Emerson to our pollsters from last week.

[nescac1]

Emerson roster is out.  As others reported here, Houston back, Warterhouse not.  Nate Martin, another starter, returns for a fifth year.  Then also add Sean Coman, a graduate transfer who started at Hendrix last year.  With Coman, Beckwith, Martin and Davis, Emerson has tons of perimeter scoring to keep defenses honest around Houston.  Point guard and depth up front are probably the question marks. 

[BaboNation]

Clark's roster & schedule are out.

Full credit to the substantial improvement in the OOC schedule which includes Bates, Tufts, and Williams.  Nice to see.

[BaboNation]

Now that we know Houston is back for Emerson I decided to watch the WPI vs. Emerson games (3) again from last year, paying special attention to the Houston-Adams matchup.

The videos are still available. 

The first is @ Emerson and is a little hard to watch in the depths of Covid (very un-Emerson with just one overhead camera and no audio).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipzWlLzWUsY

This is the first time these 2 faced each other in NEWMAC play and Adams finished with his 2nd highest point total of the year (23) on 11-15 (vs Houston's 14 on just 5-8), and Adams finished with the rebounding edge 10-8.
Houston tested Adams early and got his only 4 FTs of the game, but Adams did a great job denying the entry pass, and showed the strength and lateral quickness to disallow the back down Houston uses against smaller and weaker opponents.
Unless Houston is able to get a shoulder turned to the basket he's not got an edge on this matchup.
Adams was able to frequently set up low, pass out, and reset for foul line jumpers before Houston had the speed or willingness to close out.  He did the same after setting a screen on the wing. And he took it to Houston low if he could take advantage of his lateral quickness.
Recognizing full well that these 2 were not matched up at all times and WPI had the stronger squad, I come away (as I did then) thinking that Adams was the better player on this night.

The 2nd (regular season) game is @ WPI with an annoying 5 second audio lag for most of the first half.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r7_OKVy1SLY

This one got away from Emerson early, but that had a lot to do with not being able to get Houston going.  He had his 2nd lowest shot attempts for the year (5) and didn't take his first until about 5 minutes left in the first half (missed put-back offensive rebound) and didn't score until 1:30 left in the half.  And then Adams takes Houston one-on-one for a nifty reverse along the baseline on the next possession.
The half finishes (when it was still somewhat of a game at 33-21) with Houston at 2 points (on 2 shots) and 6 rebounds and Adams at 10-6.
The second half isn't worth a deep dive because the game got out of hand and neither player was a standout statistically.  Houston finished with a line of 8-9 with 5 TOs and 4 fouls;  Adams' line was 10-10 with 3 TOs and 3 fouls.
I again give an edge to Adams in this matchup.  When your team is up against it early you need to demand the ball and get involved.  It's striking that Houston's only 1st half basket came when he fought through a tough triple-team in the restricted area because he was mostly contained straight up by Adams.

NEWMAC Final

This was Houston's best game.  Much more assertive.  Emerson actually had a 2-point halftime lead.  The game got away in the 2nd half, but that was really more about the superiority of WPI's surrounding cast.
Houston finished with 21-12 vs. Adams at 15-15.

Maybe this summary is going to come across as Houston bashing.  I hope not.  He's an undeniable talent and if they counted altered shots or "hmm, maybe I better not drive the lane on this guy" as a stat he'd be 1st team AA in those categories.
He's certainly taken it to my favorite squad.
And I take nothing away from him that he's dominant over guys where he has a 40 pound weight, or 5 inch height advantage.
It's not his fault that he went up against Tufts when Luke Rogers was hurt.
It's not his fault that the team didn't schedule Wesleyan to see how he'd match up against a Jordan James type who could give some inches and still have the strength and athleticism to be a force.
However, as few big men as there are at the D3 level, guys in the 6'7" - 6'8" with upper body strength, weighing in the vicinity of 225+, with lateral quickness can match up with Houston defensively and present problems offensively where he is not quick and has a tendency to stay home in the key, offering opportunities for guys with mobility and range.
So as I take a look at the Emerson schedule this year we have the same 2 regular season matchups with WPI and Adams (and likely a NEWMAC tourney game as well).  There aren't a lot of other games that have players who might suggest a matchup challenge before the national tournament.  Maybe Turner Kurt or Nick Everett (Wooster).  Not much else that I can see.

What I come back to time and time again is what a stud Adams showed himself to be in his first year.  If he even upped his game 10% over the summer watch out.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

Watching Houston in the TBT this summer really revealed his lack of footspeed.  That's something you can work on and improve, for sure, so I'm looking to see how he moves when the season gets going.  I think he'd have a much better chance against Adams if he can get to where he wants to be a step or two faster.  It's definitely something he'll have to improve if he wants to play professionally.