MBB: NEWMAC

[BaboNation]

Babson 59  @ Springfield 55

A win is a win, even when it's extremely ugly.

Babson had most of its firepower sidelined for this one and it made me wonder where the offense would come from. 

Witness:

* Top returning scorer from last year, Kieran Dorney sighted for the first time all season, dressed for the game, but didn't even   participate in shoot around.  What's up with that?
* Top scorer for this year, Nate Amado is still in street clothes
* Top scorer over the last 4 games, Ryan Cibull (16.3) wasn't even at the game

Neither team shot over 36% from the field;  neither team could hit more than 57% of FTs;  Babson was an atrocious 1/15 from the arc until Gorgol hit an all day to think about it corner 3 to break a 50-50 tie in the last minute.  Babson went without a point over a 6 minute stretch to the 90 second mark, and missed the front end of 3 or 4 1 and 1's along the way.

This Babson offense, without returning some firepower, is not going to win many more games.  It's not sustainable.  Half of this game's minutes were FY and sophs.  The FY trio of Woolhouse, O'Toole, and Lauder will, I think, be very good in years to come, but right now are struggling on offense but are holding up well defensively.

For Springfield, maybe the new coach has different ideas, but I'd be sure to give Daryl Costa (the last remaining key contributor to the great tournament teams) at least 30 minutes a game.  He missed some time, but he's a better option than his replacements.

Elsewhere, the biggest upset was Wheaton over Clark.  Clark playing without Saintilus is going to be an issue I think.  Isaiah Taylor put up 28, but hoisted 29 FGs, making 7.  Having not seen the game I won't comment on his shot quality.
Wheaton?  It's now or never for this squad of seniors.  Aaron Williams had 33/11/4 and is now averaging 21.5 and 8.4 on nice 49.1/32.2/77.7 percentages.  And for fantasy lovers, he's averaging 29.6 over his last 7 games, and since being reinserted into the starting lineup.
The other senior starters, Carlisle and Cook are putting up 17.9 and 11.3 ppg respectively.

[BaboNation]

WPI 61 @ Babson 49

WPI has now won 5 in a row in this series.  This was Babson's first home game in 41 days.

About what I expected in this one considering Babson is without Amado (they say he'll be back in 2 weeks), Cibull, Mason, and Dorney.  Dorney dressed again but didn't get in the game.

Unlike recent games against WPI Babson actually held up well on defense in the half court set.  Lowther 2/11 (4) and Adams 2/10 (6) did not abuse the interior as they have in the past.  FYs Lauder (5 blocks), Woolhouse, and O'Toole (7 rebs; 2 blocks) kept a body on them, denied position, and contested every shot.
The WPI supporting cast - Marelli (12), Callahan (13), and Sevilla (11) did most of the work on offense.
It was a 33-29 WPI lead when the wheels came off the Babson offense in the 2nd half, turning the ball over under pressure and unable to find buckets from range. 
They finished just 4/21 from 3, and that's with 3 makes in the final 5 minutes.  The FY trio are still struggling to find their offense consistently.  Kirkpatrick really needs a blow running the offense and Cross is a little too green right now.
WPI went on a 17-1 run, mostly in transition off turnovers to make it 50-30 and it got no closer than 12 after that.

The future now depends on team health.  How soon can they get pieces back?  How many pieces are coming back?  Is Dorney going to come back in time enough to mesh with all the new faces?

If all these guys come back I still feel very good about Babson's chances down the road.  But, like Clark without Saintilus, they may dig themselves into such a hole that they are forced into the 4 vs. 5 seed playoff game, or worse still miss the NEWMAC tournament entirely.

Elsewhere in the NEWMAC, Max Davis goes off for 31 and Houston grabs 20 boards as Emerson pastes Clark.  I nominate Davis for the most unorthodox jump shot in the NEWMAC.  But he's an offensive force.

And Wheaton takes down Springfield to slide into the #3 position for the time being at least.  They've yet to play WPI or Emerson.  Aaron Williams has transformed his body noticeably since his FY.  Three years ago he'd be almost walking into the frontcourt on  each possession.  But he's had nifty low post moves all along.

Wheaton @ Babson on Saturday suddenly is an important game for NEWMAC standings.

[BaboNation]

Wheaton 64 @ Babson 56

Without becoming a broken record there'll be more of this until/unless some/all missing pieces return.  I'm guessing the offensive totals for the last 3 games (59-49-56) is probably a streak of not reaching 60 that goes back at least 12 years.

And Clark loses to Coast Guard to match Babson's downward spiral.

The only problem WPI is having right now is with their video streaming (again). 

[BaboNation]

Babson 62  @  MIT 52 (OT)

Nice win, coming from 16 down at the half.  Babson got Cibull back but Woolhouse joined the large group of inactives and then Gorgol went down to injury.

I'll dispense with the game summary and instead extol the talents of MIT's FY Rome Delgado-Gonzalez who should be a shoo-in for NEWMAC ROY.
He's almost single-handedly carrying this team.  As a FY.  He doesn't dazzle you with quickness or athleticism, but he's a solid all-around basketball player who has a pure stroke, can take his man off the dribble, and plays big for his size (listed at 6'3").
He reminds me a little of Babson's Andrew Jaworski in years past, but to quickly acclimate as a FY is very impressive.

Consider: 
He had 38 @ Keene State. 
He played all 45 minutes tonight, his 8th wire-to-wire game this year. 
He had 30 of his team's 52 in this one on 10-15, 3-3, and 7-8.
For the year he's averaging 18.8 / 7.1 / 2.8 on %'s of .471/.289/.926.

Hopefully he stays around for 4 years and MIT gets him some running mates in recruiting.

[WPI89]

Watched the second half of WPI/Clark last night.  No surprise in this rivalry game that Clark hung around - in fact Clark was up with 5:30 to go.  The surprise to me was that the game was played "in the 80's".  Clark finally cooled at the end and still shot basically 50% from the floor and 50% from 3.  (and 11-12 from the line) - good away NEWMAC win for WPI. 

[BaboNation]

Babson 79  @ Coast Guard 60

Another nice road win.  Coast Guard is not the iron of the NEWMAC, but they have been competitive in conference play.

The Babson FY trio (2 starters) of Lauder, O'Toole, and Woolhouse combined for 23 points and 21 rebounds.  The frontcourt defense continues to improve.  I like coach Brennan's use of Cibull and Cross to start off games for better perimeter defense and bringing Kirkpatrick off the bench.

Woolhouse returned after a 1 game absence, but Gorgol's injury in the last game kept him out of this one.

Dorney must still not be ready, though still showing up in uniform.  The bench was emptied of everyone else who dressed.

Some stats that capture the current state of the Babson squad:
They rank 2nd (behind only WPI) in defensive efficiency, but 7th (in an 8 team league) in offensive efficiency.

[BaboNation]

Babson 87  Clark 64

First game back since Dec. 29th for Saintilus (Clark) and Amado (Babson).  Weird that arguably Clark's MVP and certainly Babson's went down on the same date and both around halftime of those games.

While Amado didn't look to be pushing himself he still finished with 15 and had 2 dunks to advertise he's back.  Saintilus (10) looks like he's working himself back too.

Before extended garbage time the story here was Babson's strong defensive stand in the first half.  Cibull (18), Gao (15), and Cross (10) were disruptive in passing lanes leading to 9 1st half TOs and a 21-point halftime lead in a wire to wire rout.
And once again, the FY forward trio Lauder-Woolhouse-O'Toole did a very good job denying the paint and controlling the boards (23 of 35 rebs.from this group).  Lauder has improved game by game.  He had been too (needlessly) aggressive defensively culminating in the Wheaton game where he fouled out in just 5 minutes of court time.  In this one he had 4 points, 11 boards, and most importantly just 1 foul in 22 minutes of action.

Everyone who dressed saw minutes again. 

It should be a very good measuring stick game on Saturday when Emerson comes to town.  Babson, now at 4-3 in conference play, is in a 4 game string of games where they will face 4 of the 5 likely NEWMAC tournament teams.

Clark, sitting at 2-5 will still probably take the 5th spot, though they are currently tied with Springfield and Coast Guard.

[BaboNation]

Babson 60  Emerson  56

Emerson almost came all the way back in this one after Babson went without a FG, up 58-47 with 6:23 to play.  Gao (16 pts. and player of the game for me) gave Babson the 11-point cushion with a 3-pointer (4-7 for the day).
But Nate Martin was big down the stretch (7 of his team-high 16) to get Emerson within 2 with :38 to play.
Houston (13/5) went to the FT line at :13 with a chance to tie but missed the front end.
Cibull canned 2 FTs for Babson's only points in the last 6+ minutes.

Nate Amado (7), who was already having a rough game looked to turn his ankle with about 13 minutes to play and hobbled around with an ice pack on the bench after that.  Tough luck after just his 2nd game back.

The 3 Babson FY forwards were the team top 3 in rebounds:  O'Toole (10), Lauder (6), Woolhouse (5).  Lauder fouled out late but did a creditable job with Houston.
Babson is probably the only NEWMAC team that lets Houston back down his man from 15 feet on a clearout, preferring to deny the pass out to men at the arc.

At 12-7 and 5-3, and with 4 wins in a row (last 2 against likely NEWMAC tournament teams) the team is in excellent shape to make the NEWMAC playoffs.  But a 2 seed would be a lot better than being in the 4-5 play-in game or placing 3rd and playing at  the 2, particularly if the #2 is Emerson.

Really proud of the young men.  Nice gritty, grinding win.

[deiscanton]

NEWMAC Conference update--

Final from Boston, MA--

Emerson 71, #12 WPI 66

WPI suffers their first NEWMAC conference loss of the season and drops to 8-1 in NEWMAC play with 5 games to go before the NEWMAC tournament.  As a result of the loss, WPI's lead in NEWMAC now shrinks to 1 game over 2nd place Emerson, who now improves to 7-2 in NEWMAC play, also with 5 games left before the NEWMAC tournament.

For Emerson, Max Davis scored a game high 31 points, while Jarred Houston had a double double with 14 points and 16 rebounds.  Nate Martin was the third Lion in double figures tonight, scoring 10 points.

For WPI, Donovan Sevilla scored a team high 21 points, while John Lowther scored 20 points, and John Adams scored 10 points.

Overall, WPI is now 16-3 on the season, while Emerson improves to 12-8.

According to Matt Snyder's net efficiency handicapping system, Emerson came into the game tonight as a +6.5 point home underdog.  The predicted scoreline tonight was WPI 67, Emerson 61; the predicted game tempo was 67 possessions per team, and the over/under total was 128.5

On the actual results, the home underdog won outright, and the actual game total was 137, which meant that the over won tonight.

Emerson had approx 64 possessions in the win.

Matt Snyder's net efficiency ratings can be found at:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

[WPI89]

WPI goes down at Emerson. Kind of sloppy quiet weekday game. Not much excitement in gym. WPI close to single digits % from 3. Better now than March! 

[BaboNation]

Babson 61  @  Wheaton 55

Not the biggest game in the NEWMAC tonight (more on that later) but playoff intensity in Norton MA.

Babson trailed for 35 minutes in this one before Kirkpatrick nailed a turnaround jumper to knot things at 48.  Alex Carlisle hit a falling out of bounds, clock winding down, desperation 3 to reestablish a 51-48 lead and temporarily deflate the visitors.
But an Amado jumper and a Gao reset from traffic 3 gave Babson its first lead of the night at 53-51 with under 3 to play. 

55-all again when Amado comes off a screen to hit a dagger 3 with 1:00 to play.   Then he harasses Carlisle into a miss at the other end and O'Toole buries a corner 3 (off some soft bounces) to put the game away.

Just a tremendous defensive performance against a Wheaton team that came in averaging 78 per game, #1 in NEWMAC ppg and #1 in NEWMAC offensive efficiency.  And despite its offensive woes Babson hasn't allowed more than 64 points in 8 straight games (all conference opponents).  That bodes well for the future considering 2 FY forwards (Lauder and O'Toole) played 30 and 28 minutes respectively and were both on the floor down the stretch.  Defense will keep you in a lot of games.

Amado looks maybe 80% but still finished with 17/13/2 and faced doubles most of the night.
On a night when Babson had Gao limited with foul trouble, Kirkpatrick struggling to find his shot, without Woolhouse to give rest to the forward line and defend the NEWMAC leading scorer Williams, and missing other rotational pieces (Gorgol, and Mason, to say nothing of Dorney) this was another grinding, confidence building win - now 5 in a row.

I came away increasingly impressed by Wheaton's FY guard Tristan Henry who is a very good defender and took at least 3 charges tonight.

Now 20 games into the season I wonder if Dorney will see the court at all.  Is it possible he takes a hardship year, depending on what his future plans might be?

Next up @ WPI.  Having beaten 3 straight NEWMAC tournament foes Babson will be attempting the Bobby Jones version of the impregnable quadrilateral.

Elsewhere, Emerson over previously unbeaten WPI.  I said back in December Emerson could really benefit if Max Davis got back.  Well, he went off for 31 in this one.  I'll have to watch the replay but the guy can ball when he's in his zone.  And, oh well, Houston had a double-double at halftime.
Like most conferences, rivalries being what they are, it's really difficult to go unbeaten in conference play.

[SpringSt7]

What's up with WPI? Not to overreact to a loss but they haven't really been the same team all year.

What's weird is that the biggest concerns were replacing Downing and McNamara but all things considered they are doing that just fine:

2021-22: McNamara/Downing/Callahan: 32.6 ppg on 11.2-25.1 shooting (44.6%), 4.9-11.9 from three (41.2%)

2022-23: Callahan/Sevilla/Lufkin: 29 ppg on 10.6-24.4 shooting (43.4%), 4.1-10.8 from three (38.0%)

A slight dip in production across the board (rebounds and assists are almost identical as well) obviously but if you told anyone before the season started that was what they were going to be replaced with, you would take that in a heartbeat. Needless to say they have not gotten nearly what they needed from Adams and Lowther but why is that? Are the guards not getting them the ball in the right spots? Are they being doubled more? The defense is better statistically this year as well.

They will probably still win the NEWMAC and click off a few games in the tournament which is nothing to scoff at but they have not looked like last year's team at all.

[Ryan Scott (Hoops Fan)]

I don't think they're as deep as last year and you can't really replace the intangibles of two senior guards, even if production is similar. They're maybe 90% of what they were last year and they're performance seems to match. Emerson's record isn't great, but that's a good team and a bad matchup for WPI. I wouldn't be too worried.

[SpringSt7]

I had been meaning to ask for a few weeks, the Emerson loss just reminded me. There's nothing wrong with that loss at all, but it doesn't change the fact that Lowther is shooting 39.8% from the field and Adams is shooting 48%.

Agreed that there are certain things the seniors did, McNamara in particular, that don't show up on the stat sheet. But they are getting a ton more production from their guards especially in terms of making shots than was expected. Callahan is a stud. Just weird that the bigs are struggling, I thought they were the best frontcourt in the country last year and it was their first year together.

[BaboNation]

Well, the WPI loss is something in at least a couple ways, at least to me.  It certainly gives confidence to the top half of the NEWMAC that WPI is not invincible come NEWMAC tourney time.  And whereas they were home for rounds 64/32 in the NCAA last year I think this loss puts hosting in further jeopardy than it may have already been.  Their best wins aren't going to stack up well come selection day.  New England has some stud teams with better ranked wins that are sure to host.

I watched the WPI-Emerson game on demand this morning.  Sevilla (full disclosure: I was not sold on him as a starter in December) is the best defensive guard in the NEWMAC imo.  Great lateral quickness, fights over screens, denies penetration, disrupts passing lanes.  WPI always, always, always has a strong defensive guard.  Max Davis was feeling it and was typically matched up with Callahan.  Davis has a very quick release and Callahan had difficulty staying up on him.  He can be trick or treat, but he won't lose his confidence to shoot.

I think both Lowther and Adams, while still 1st team NEWMAC have not risen their games this year.  As we all know a slight, nagging wrist injury is all it takes to affect a shooting touch.  I wonder if something is going on with Lowther particularly.

Still a ways to go but I'd make Houston my early voting NEWMAC POY.  If they collected stats for altered shots and non-shooting fouls drawn before the bonus my guess is he'd be top-10 in the country in both.  And I'd start chiseling his bust onto the NEWMAC Mt. Rushmore.

Houston-Martin-Davis are going to make Emerson a tough out in the tourney.

You heard it here first ... one of these teams will lose @ Wheaton