MBB: NEWMAC

[Pat Coleman]

I get my stats from the same place you do, but they dont take into account all games when voting for conference awards, therefore conference only stats are relevent to this discussion.

Actually, I'm not sure too many coaches rely so much on "conference-only stats" vs. "overall stats" when voting for All-Conference anyway. I'm sure they rely on "what I've seen" because "I've seen them play at least once in person and a lot on tape."

I think conference stats give a good sample set of data against similar opponents.  Otherwise its sometimes like comparing bananas and oranges, with respect to the statistics.  Harkins had 7 steals in a game against Johnson State.  Does that really tell you how he stacks up against other NEWMAC guards? Yes, if someone plays really well against other good competition, thats one thing, but I think performance in conference is more important than out-of-conference, for conference awards.  There is obviously a subjective element, but I am sure everyone knows Kates and Harkins, at this point, in the NEWMAC.  

I just don't think the coaches sit down with a calculator, whether pocket size or hugenerd size, when voting.

[mass_d3fan]

Massd3,

When you said do I think Harkins numbers would be like this if Cavalieri was out?  I actually think they would be higher.  Harkins knows he doesn't have to be a main scorer so he focuses on finding Coburn, Cavalieri, Rankins.  If Cavalieri was out he would know he would have to be a main scorer.  He can score.... clearly you saw that 2nd half of the WPI game if you were there.  I was there.  Springfield couldn't get a call to save their lives.  So second half Springfield didn't even run offense.  Harkins took over.  Also the MIT game, it wasn't like Kates was penetrating the defense and making great assists, he was swinging the ball to Karraker who was on fire, that how he had 5 assists.  His 1-9 shooting came because he couldn't get by or get space from Harkins.

Hugenerd,
Your acting like I don't think Kates is a good player.  Of course he is a good player but you give him too much credit sometimes.  IMO the players the best three players in this league are Robinson, Cavalieri, and Vayda.  Obviously Clarks record diminishes Vayda's chances of winning POY, but I still think he is an excellent player, and top 3 in the league no matter what team he is on.  In your first argument for Kates you were bouncing around between conf. stats and non-conf. stats so it was a bit confusing.  It comes down to this Harkins is a better passer, ball-handler, and defensive player,  Kates is a better scorer and shooter... IMO Harkins is a better point guard.  Everyones got there opinion.. Feb 19th we'll see how it plays out.

Yes, I was at the first Springfield/WPI game (see my summary back a couple of pages).  I do not recall Springfield "not getting a call to save their lives" and certainly the statistics do not back that up.  Fouls were pretty equal (10 each in the first half, 16 on the Pride and 14 on WPI n the 2nd) as were turnovers (Springfield  8 & 5  for 13, WPI 2 & 9 for 11)

Springfield simply did not play well and WPI's defense had them confused and frustrated. Cavalieri & Coburn did not see many open looks at all.  Most every shot was contested. Harkins did indeed put up 14 in the second half - most of it while WPI's lead was bouncing just over & under 20 points.  That game was effectively over until Carr got hurt with 5 minutes to go and the Engineers became unsettled (While he was out they did not even make a FG).  The lead went from 17 to 11 as the Pride took advantage of it.  Carr came back around 2 minutes to go and WPI regrouped and won by 15.

"Springfield and Clark rely on Cavalieri and Vayda to score and teams know that so pretty much every game i've seen of each player some sort of double team scheme has been in effect for a duration during the game."

Not in the WPI game.  Wesoloski and Carr were the primary defenders on him and played him man-to-man other than a few under the bucket OB plays where they went zone.  Same thing when WPI played at Clark, they did not double Vayda.

[mass_d3fan]

L-
Just wanted to point out that Harkins is on Springfield, so Kates is on the better team also in this comparison.

Whoops, thought Harkins was on WPI. As I said, I'm really not very familiar with the NEWMAC. Had actually stopped by the NEWMAC board to see if anyone had a take on the the legitimacy of WPI as a regional contender. Some posters seem dubious in the NE regional rankings thread. Seems to me though that the NEWMAC teams are getting better every year. Between the NEWMAC and the LEC, the NE seems to have a gotten a ton deeper in the last few years. I'm sure there will be some non-NESCAC teams in the final four very soon.

Anyway, jabnike23, I would say that in all-conference voting, performance in major statistical categories like the ones hugenerd laid out, especially ppg, seem to pretty much always determine the winner, especially between players from teams with relatively similar records. I'm not saying that your observations of Harkins outplaying Kates aren't valid, or that they shouldn't be important in determining awards, i'm just saying that's the way it typically goes.  

Hopefully you will check back here and bring some NESCAC insight to the discussion.

I think there is no doubt about top 3 in the region.  WPI and Western Conn. are still a a couple of steps below those 3 NESCAC teams.  Realistically, right now here is no one (in-region) who is going to beat those 3 teams without playing a near perfect game in conjunction with a low-end effort from the opponent.  Anything is possible, but it certainly be considered a major upset if it came down to those 3 and either WPI or West. Conn. In a regional final 4 – with the Engineers or the Colonials getting a win.  I guess the question becomes how the selection committee constructs the bracket.  Do they keep all three teams here?  If so, do they make it so they each have a path to the Sweet 16 without bumping into one or another?(one would think that is most likely).

Two years ago, the Engineers got an at large bid and hosted the first two rounds of the tournament.  They won in the opening round over Husson and lost to UMass-Dartmouth in the 2nd.  This team is a better defensive team and more balanced on offense. The prospects of getting to that second week are much better for this team.

Right now, I am sure the Engineers are much more focused on finishing strong and winning the NEWMAC tournament.  Recent history has shown no matter how good the #1 seed is, it does not mean capturing the AQ bid.  

[Hugenerd]

I get my stats from the same place you do, but they dont take into account all games when voting for conference awards, therefore conference only stats are relevent to this discussion.

Actually, I'm not sure too many coaches rely so much on "conference-only stats" vs. "overall stats" when voting for All-Conference anyway. I'm sure they rely on "what I've seen" because "I've seen them play at least once in person and a lot on tape."

I think conference stats give a good sample set of data against similar opponents.  Otherwise its sometimes like comparing bananas and oranges, with respect to the statistics.  Harkins had 7 steals in a game against Johnson State.  Does that really tell you how he stacks up against other NEWMAC guards? Yes, if someone plays really well against other good competition, thats one thing, but I think performance in conference is more important than out-of-conference, for conference awards.  There is obviously a subjective element, but I am sure everyone knows Kates and Harkins, at this point, in the NEWMAC.  

I just don't think the coaches sit down with a calculator, whether pocket size or hugenerd size, when voting.

I agree, but its not like I calculated an efficiency rating or anything. All the numbers I reported are compiled by the NEWMAC, so no calculator required!

[jabnike23]

Massd3,
Everytime Cavalieri got the ball in the post in the WPI game the near-side guard dropped and digged for a double... on the perimeter they played him one on one, and he still managed to get 17... It doesn't matter what the score was in the second half.. Harkins could not be stopped/contained.  He got to the basket every play, they didn't even run offense.  As for fouls, if you don't recall the refs being terrible, you were not watching the same game.  First of all Harkins should have been tossed for putting Ettens head into the floor about 3 times.  Second, Springfield was getting hacked.. the refs were clueless, inconistant.. no excuse for Sprignfields poor execution and play in the first half.. but still the refs were horrendous.

[mass_d3fan]

Hmmm, not sure what game you watched, but they certainly did not double Cavalieri every time he got it low.  There were 3 or 4 times in the first half when he got it low and settled for jumpers.  No double team was there. They tried to get him the ball down low to start the second half, the first time he tried to get off a shot, Carr blocked it and and took it away.  Again - no double team.  I do recall a couple of times when Springfield's spacing was very poor and there was a second defender near.  You may be mistaking that for a double-team attempt. Your making a claim that it was their defensive strategy everytime he got it low - it was not.  This was the exact same defensive plan they used on Vayda.  In the game before the Springfield game. It resulted in a 5 of 13 shooting performance for Vayda & Calalieri ended up 5 for 14.  Matt did get to the line for 10 FTAs.

As far as refs go, I did not say the game was called well.  I took issue with your claim that Springfield could not get a call - clearly they got plenty. 33 Free Throw attempts for the game also indicates this.

I assume your talking about the play in front of the bench as far as Etten was concerned.  On that play he was guarding Cavalieri and beat Matt to the spot on a pass.  As they went for the ball, Cavalieri went through Etten and they ended up on the floor along the sideline in front of the Pride's bench.  Harkins dove on top of them.  At that point, all the players surrounded the area and from my seat, I could not see what the 3 players did until it broke up. Since Harkins was given a T, I assumed he did something.  If he did what you said, he is fortunate not to have been thrown out.

In regards to the hacking, both teams were allowed to be over-aggressive and then there were some tick-tack fouls called.  The refs were not consistiently calling the game, but that has been true of all the games I have seen this year, including a couple of Clark's games.  This is not going to change, and the good teams find a way to adjust to it. As HN & I both stated, the game at MIT this weekend was worse than some high school games I have seen.  The only thing that made it tolerable to me was watching the battle between Tashman & Carr down low.  I am a big time believer in the low post game and it how it sets up the perimeter game. It is one of things I focus on the most when I watch a game.  This is why I know WPI was not double teaming Cavalieri down low in the way you suggest.

As far as Harkins going off, I have not seen too many teams ever continue to keep playing as hard on the defensive end when they are up 20 Vs a game where the lead is single digits. Substitution patterns change as well.

In regards to him "dominating" every other PG, Nadeau had 18 and was the key in the early going in that game.  Jaime Shannon put up 14 in only 14 minutes.  As I said, my focus tends to be under the bucket, so I am not sure who Harkins primary defensive responsibility was, but 4 players from WPI scored 14 or more, and he surely would have been assigned to one of them other than Carr.

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

First Regional Rankings: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/2011/02/02/ncaas-mens-regional-rankings/

[Mr. Ypsi]

I included the MIT @ Babson game on the slate of the National Pick Ems contest.  I see it has been postponed, but the NEWMAC site said nothing about when it has been re-scheduled.  Does anyone here know?

[Hugenerd]

Tomorrow

[Mr. Ypsi]

Thanks.

[Hugenerd]

MIT pulls it out 63-60 over Babson.  They led by as many as 16, but after their starting 4 and 5 fouled out, combined cold shooting (including missed FTs) and increased inside penetration by Babson made the game close at the end.  The difference in this game was balanced scoring for MIT.  As I mentioned previously, MIT only had 9 points total out of everyone besides Karraker, Kates and Tashman last game.  Tonight, Nick Davis had 7 points off the bench in 12 first half minutes.  In the second, Will Dickson picked up where he left off, scoring a total of 10 points.  In all, the supporting cast scored 28 points (everyone outside of Karraker, Kates, and Tashman), much better than last game.

Tashman led MIT in scoring and on the boards, with 18 (7-10 shooting) and 8.  Kates played well from the point, scoring 11 and dishing out 8 assists.  Karraker was limited to just 2 shots, but he made both form deep.

MIT now tied for 2nd in the NEWMAC with Springfield, who beat CGA tonight, but MIT has the tiebreaker currently with the head to head win.

[jabnike23]

Springfield took care of business against Coast Guard.  The game was over in the first few minutes as Springfield started on a 19-0 run.  Cavalieri led the way with 20 pts, Coburn had a nice rebounding night with 12, and Harkins added 6 steals.  Nobody on CG scored in double figures.  Springfield travels to Babson Saturday.

[mass_d3fan]

Thanks for the updates guys!

I stopped by WPI and watched the womens game on Pink Zone night.

Looks like Clark finally got a conference win tonight beating Wheaton 68-55.  Vayda (18 pts/5 rebs/5 assists) got some help tonight.  Jeff Tagger contributed 10 and Jake Gubitose had 11 points.

Wheaton was led by Will Bayliss who had a career night with 25 points, 4 assists and 3 steals.  Coppola fouled out with 15 points.

[mass_d3fan]

When  I got home, I was looking for the writeup on the womens game and I saw some very nice news on the athletics web site.  I followed up on it and discovered that:

We have some MAJOR congratulations to hand out to some players from here in the NEWMAC.

Four student-athletes in the NEWMAC were honored today by being named to the Co-SIDA Academic ALL-District team.

Jeff Robinson of WPI & Brian Vayda of Clark were named to the second team.

Matt Carr & Lauren Hannmann of WPI were named to the Men's & Women's first team respectively.  They will both be on the ballot for the Academic All-American teams.  Extremely impressive for these two (in my mind anyway), since both are Chemical Engineering majors with GPA's to envy.  Hannmann has a 3.82 and Carr is at 3.96.

Again, Congrats to all four & Good Luck to Hannmann & Carr in the All-American voting.

[mass_d3fan]

Saturday's Games:

WPI crushed Wheaton 78-46 with an incredible 10 for 11 3-point shooting in the first 9 minutes and stifling defense throughout the game.  Kyle Nadeau led the way for the Engineers with 16, (all in the first half) on 5 of 8 from beyond the arc, and 2 assists.  Robinson put up 10 and a couple of assists.  Etten (6 pts/4 rebs/2 assists) got in on the 3-ptr parade going 2 for 3. Carr only scored 8, but had a game-high 6 boards, to go with 2 assists, 3 blocks, and 3 steals. Jerome Stewart (7 pts/5 rebs), David White (7 pts) & Perez led a big bench effort of 45 points.  WPI converted 21 Lyon turnovers into 39 points. The regulars were pretty much done for the day with 14 minutes left.  12 of 15 players logged 10 or more minutes.  The Engineer's defense held Wheaton to 31% from the field.

The Lyons were led by Brendan Degnan's 13 points and 2 steals & Will Bayliss added 12 and 3 assists.  Anthony Coppola became Wheaton's 2nd leading all-time scorer with 11 points.  Brian Grossman led the bench effort for Wheaton with 3 points and a team-high 5 rebounds.

Springfield moved a half a game ahead of idle MIT for 2nd place in the conference with a 73-63 win over Babson.  Jordan Rote had a big game with 20 points, 4 boards & 4 steals. Harkins had 15 points & 4 rebounds to go with a game-high 5 assists. Darvis Rankins also tallied 15 pts and 4 boards.  Ryan Coburn chipped in with 7 pts, 5 rebs and 4 blocks. Matt Cavalieri was held to 6 points, but grabbed a team-high 7 rebounds.  The Pride went 28 for 37 from the free throw line.

Babson had four players score in double-digits with Alex Rudolph leading the way with 14 pts, 4 rebs & 3 assists. Russell Braithwaite (12 pts/ 6 rbs/ 2 stls), Matt Floria (10 pts/3 assists/3 stls) & Matt Zioa (10 pts/2 assists/1 stl) were the others.  Kris Noonan chipped in with 6 points, 3 assists & a game-high 10 rebounds.

Clark won its 2nd straight conference game with a 61-49 win over Coast Guard on senior day for the Cougars.  Brain Vayda led 4 cougars in double figures with 14 points, 2 assists & game-highs of 7 rebounds & 5 steals.  DJ Bailey had a career high 13 to go with 6 rebounds and 3 blocks. Travis Curley and Mitch Renshaw each added 11 points.

Coast Guard was led by Jevon James' double-double of 21 points and 14 boards.  Kevin Sowers posted 11 points and 3 steals, but the Bears only had 3 other players dent the scoring column.

The scramble is on for the last two playoff spots:

Babson= = = => 4-5
Coast Guard  => 3-6
Clark = = = = => 2-6
Wheaton = = => 2-7


Enjoy Super Sunday Everyone!