MBB: NEWMAC

[WPI89]

Great analysis Babo.  Went to WPI/Clark game Saturday - it was 18-0 before anyone sat down.  WPI may be clicking at the right time.  Although I do not expect any 40+ point leads tomorrow night.

Emerson/Babson seems to be a toss-up, no?  Look forward to possible pre-game thoughts from you!

[BaboNation]

Great analysis Babo.  Went to WPI/Clark game Saturday - it was 18-0 before anyone sat down.  WPI may be clicking at the right time.  Although I do not expect any 40+ point leads tomorrow night.

Emerson/Babson seems to be a toss-up, no?  Look forward to possible pre-game thoughts from you!

I'll try to preview the semis tomorrow morning.  For now, let me say, and this is not me talking, but the consensus of at least 6 different guys I follow who live and breathe this stuff, it's very, very unlikely that WPI will host any games this year.  I haven't seen anyone projecting WPI as a host unless we see a lot of bid thieves and WPI wins the NEWMAC.  And that includes guys that rank WPI higher than the D3Hoops ranking.
It's all about SOS and the horrendous bottom-3 records in the NEWMAC this year.  Three teams in an 8 team league that are in the bottom third of the Massey rankings.  Awful.
Drew Pasteur for example, while not infallible, is a go-to guy for projections.  He thinks the NEWMAC gets 1.19 teams in.  Translation:  1 bid for the NEWMAC.  And I think I'm a pretty objective guy, but 1 bid sounds absolutely right this year.  Without looking it up I think the last time the NEWMAC got just 1 bid was 2013.  It's been an awful year for the conference.  Some of it is conference youth and injuries.

And here's a nugget that really stings - WPI (at 22-3) may be facing a must-win game tomorrow.  Pasteur has them pretty comfortably in by winning tomorrow, but a loss against Clark will present a lot of anxiety on selection day.  And I think there will be one more regional ranking factored in before teams are selected.  WPI's highest ranked wins are Babson home and away.  Should Babson lose tomorrow and drop from the rankings that would be 2 fewer wins against RROs.

And most projections have WPI as a #2 seed in a pod if they win the AQ.  Again, because of SOS and RRO and the 500 mile travel limit they could find themselves in a pod hosted by St. Joe's or Williams.  Rough sledding.

[deiscanton]

Because Babson is ranked this week, in the next to last regional rankings and the final published regional rankings before Selection Sunday and Bracket Monday, Babson is now considered regionally ranked for selection purposes and cannot lose its status even if Babson is not ranked in the final regional ranking list that gets released after the bracket comes out.

WPI keeps those 2 RRO wins vs Babson for selection purposes even if Emerson defeats Babson in the NEWMAC semifinals tomorrow.

[BaboNation]

Because Babson is ranked this week, in the next to last regional rankings and the final published regional rankings before Selection Sunday and Bracket Monday, Babson is now considered regionally ranked for selection purposes and cannot lose its status even if Babson is not ranked in the final regional ranking list that gets released after the bracket comes out.

WPI keeps those 2 RRO wins vs Babson for selection purposes even if Emerson defeats Babson in the NEWMAC semifinals tomorrow.

Thanks for the clarification.

[BaboNation]

So, I went back to check and it looks like the last time the NEWMAC got a single bid was 2012 (I was off by a year).  It's so rare that it has been more common in the last 10 years to get 4 bids (fully half the league) than to get just 1.

Now if someone wants to do further analysis there's probably a correlation between the number of bids awarded to the NEWMAC vs. the NESCAC in the same years (i.e. an inverse relationship where one conference gets more and the other gets fewer).  The NEWMAC's misfortune should bode well for NESCAC bubble teams, though that in itself won't get them to the promised land.

2012 1 bid
2013 2 bids
2014 4 bids
2015 3 bids
2016 2 bids
2017 2 bids
2018 2 bids
2019 2 bids
2020 4 bids

2022 3 bids

Edit:  Over a 10 year stretch that works out to an average of exactly 2.5 bids per year.  And until Emerson joined the conference for the '13-14 season it was only a 7 team league.

[BaboNation]

Just my 2 cents ...

Clark @ WPI  NEWMAC Semifinal

Previous meetings this season: 

WPI 83 @ Clark 75   on Jan. 19
WPI 86 Clark 56        on Feb. 18

Everything will have to go Clark's way to win this one.  I'd give them a 10% chance.  They've got to keep Lowther and Adams from the offensive glass, they've got to reduce the turnover margin, they've got to get enough inside points (12-15+) from McArdle  to open things up on the perimeter, they've got to force an up-tempo the best they can, and I think they've got to find a way to give more minutes to Calabrese, even at the expense of O'Brien and Richards.  Calabrese is their best 3-point shooter, brings energy off the bench, and is a better FT shooter (O'Brien's 2 misses at the end of the Wheaton game were nearly costly and he's barely hitting 50%).  They need a game into the 70's+ to have any shot imo.  The game at Clark was a toss-up in the final minutes and they were able to do some of this ^^^.

And what's going on with Isaiah Taylor?  Has he been coached out of drive penetration?  His shot totals are way down over the last month, but he looks fine and his minutes have been steady.  Through January he had 10 games with 15+ fg attempts;  since then, just once.  And he seems to mostly be content (or coached) to drift at the arc.  He needs to give them 15+ (his average) minimum.  He's capable of 25, but Sevilla is the best NEWMAC guard defender, so he's going to need his A-game, and settling for 3's won't cut it.

I watched WPI over the last 3 games (@Coast Guard, @Wheaton, and Clark).  The kind of effort I saw against Coast Guard won't cut it going forward.  That said, I thought the last 2 games were their best in over a month.  They look locked in, and both games were against NEWMAC tournament teams, fwiw.  Lowther is once again playing like an AA at both ends.  I was beginning to wonder about him in early February, but he's allayed my concerns.  Defensively, Sevilla, Lowther and Adams are shutting penetration down.  Any number of guys are capable of stepping up if Lowther is having an off-day shooting:  Callahan, Lufkin, Marelli, Newman ...

[BaboNation]

 ...

Babson @ Emerson  NEWMAC Semifinal

Previous meetings this season: 

Babson 70 @ Emerson 79   on Jan. 4
Babson 60 Emerson 56        on Jan. 28

ppg in these 2 games (or 1 game for injured players):

Houston     15       Cibull          15
Martin        18        Kirkpatrick  14.5
Davis          5.5      Gao             13.5
McNamara 11        Amado        7
Beckwith    6.5       Woolhouse 5.5
Allen           6         O'Toole       2.5
Coman       2.5       Lauder        1


On paper this should be the more competitive semi by far.  Massey has it 71-70 Emerson, which feels about right.  The home team advantage is worth something.
Emerson (10-2 in the shoebox gym) hasn't lost at home since mid-November (before they got Max Davis back) and those 2 losses were by 2 points to Tufts in OT, and 2 points to Bridgewater State.   I'd be a little surprised if the final margin is more than 6 either way.

I expect the 3 top Emerson grads (Houston, Martin, and Davis) to give them about 50 points.  On the other side I expect the Babson core-4 (Cibull, Kirkpatrick, Gao, and Amado) to put up 50 as well.  Injuries are part of the game, but the wild card tonight is whether we see vintage Amado or the guy who has been gutting things out for the last month.

Babson has the more productive second level.  Emerson's supporting cast (FY McNamara, and seniors Beckwith and Allen) are capable of providing another 20.  Babson's next 4 (FYs Woolhouse, O'Toole, and Lauder, and soph. Horan) can likewise go for 20 combined while providing 20+ minutes apiece.  Horan will probably see reduced minutes as the playoff bench gets tightened.  Cross could spell the PGs for for 5 minutes.  The 2nd Babson group I've mentioned put up a combined 45/game in the last 2 games (against an undersized Coast Guard, and a warm-body-limited MIT) with 3 of the guys setting personal bests.  They won't score 45 in this one, but they need to contribute, and 20 is doable.

Keys for Babson:

Limit touches for Houston by pressuring entry passes on both ends;  if he gets the ball on the low block with a full shoulder facing the basket, stay vertical, and don't give him an and-1 opportunity.  Don't waste fouls and jeopardize the rotation depth.

Gao and Cibull need to limit Martin's drive penetration. 

Force Davis to beat you off the dribble; no clean looks from the arc where he can go off for a big night.

Woolhouse needs to bring Houston out deep to respect his stretch game and open the inside for cutters.

Cibull needs to be the most reliable 2-way player that he's been since the holiday tournament at the end of December.

Amado needs to be on the court for 25+ minutes, even if he's at 60%.

Gao has been at his best in big games and needs to do the same here.

[deiscanton]

Matt Snyder's Daily DIII Men's Basketball Score and Pace Predictions formula based off the efficiency ratings for each team:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

Main scores, margin, and totals include a standard 3.5 point home field advantage.

Warning:  For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines.

NEWMAC semfinals-- Predicted winning team's score given first.

1.)  Clark at WPI--

WPI 75, Clark 59.    WPI has a 92% chance to win this game, and is a -16.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team, and the predicted O/U total is 134.5

2.)  Babson at Emerson

Emerson 69, Babson 67   Emerson has a 57% chance to win this game, and is a -2.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team, and the predicted O/U total is 136.5

[WPI89]

Thanks, boys - I am always careful about what I say here as I feel like our comments have some mystical effect on the selection process.  That being said, should WPI lose tonight, they deserve to sweat out the selection show.

I also believe that if they win the NEWMAC, and end up 23-3 - with 2 of the losses to potential tourney teams (and one of them to #1 in the nation) - they will have favorable first-weekend matchups.  Not going to wish or dream or think about who I would have them avoid until after the conf tourney.

Really hoping WPI takes care of tonight so I can switch over to Emerson/Babson.  Fingers crossed.

[deiscanton]

Matt Snyder's Daily DIII Men's Basketball Score and Pace Predictions formula based off the efficiency ratings for each team:

tomaroonandgold.blogspot.com/p/division-iii-mens-basketball-efficiency.html

Main scores, margin, and totals include a standard 3.5 point home field advantage.

Warning:  For entertainment purposes only-- Do not gamble on these scorelines.

NEWMAC semfinals-- Predicted winning team's score given first.

1.)  Clark at WPI--

WPI 75, Clark 59.    WPI has a 92% chance to win this game, and is a -16.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 67 possessions per team, and the predicted O/U total is 134.5

2.)  Babson at Emerson

Emerson 69, Babson 67   Emerson has a 57% chance to win this game, and is a -2.0 point home favorite.

Predicted game tempo is 70 possessions per team, and the predicted O/U total is 136.5

Reviewing the results from today-- Winner's score given first.

1.)  WPI 72, Clark 56-- WPI covered the -16.0 point home favorite spread.

WPI had approx 63 possessions in the win.

Game total is 128-- Under won that one.

2.)  Babson 69, Emerson 64--  Babson won outright against the spread as road underdog.

Babson had approx 73 possessions in the win.

Game total is 133-- Under won that one.

[BaboNation]

Congratulations to @WPI89 and all Engineer fans.  Now that you're pretty safely in the NCAA Tournament it's probably a good idea to rest your starters for the NEWMAC final and have them fresh and healthy for next weekend.

But seriously, the final will probably be played in the low 60's.  I think we'll see the best 2 teams in the conference.

[Greek Tragedy]

Babson has no shot at a Pool C, but they are one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning 10 of 11. Their only loss was a 1-point loss at WPI. Nice to have Amado back, apparently.

[WPI89]

LOLOLOL and thanks - and ditto - I only saw the last 2 mins - all free throws of Babson game.  Well done by the Beavers.  They would be a dangerous (house money type) matchup against anyone if they were to win their way in tomorrow.

Against the run of my thoughts, I am hoping WPI can have a 10 or so-point lead down the stretch.  Babson is due to beat WPI in a close game.  WPI is on a 6 or 7-game win streak against Babson (my guess is the longest either way in the rivalry).

[BaboNation]

Babson has no shot at a Pool C, but they are one of the hottest teams in the nation, winning 10 of 11. Their only loss was a 1-point loss at WPI. Nice to have Amado back, apparently.

For sure Pool C is off the table for Babson.  I could be a glass half empty guy and wonder what might have been had they not been without their top returning conference scorer (Dorney) for the entire year, or had they not lost 2 starters to season-ending injuries (Mason and Gorgol), or had Amado out or injury limited for a stretch of winnable games that ended in losses.  But I am a glass half full guy that realizes they are starting 2 freshmen, 6 of their 9 guys playing last night are freshmen and sophs, and they were playing against 3 grads (one an AA) and 2 seniors on their home floor, and are now in the conference finals.
It's a credit to great coaching, and a talented group of young men that are all about team play.  So proud of all of them.

[WPI89]

Congratulations @BaboNation and Babson. Going to the dance!  Go NEWMAC. Will be a dangerous team to play!