BB: CCIW: College Conference of Illinois and Wisconsin

[Gregory Sager]

I'm never gonna understand baseball.   IWU is now 9-1 in conference road games and 4-6 in conference home games - and contrary to an earlier post I made it is NOT primarily a matter of WHO they played WHERE: 4 of their 6 home losses are to bottom-third NPU and Millikin!  They've somehow developed an allergy to Horenberger Field!

What's to understand, Chuck? I've already explained it:

To be fair to the Red Men, the only CCIW team that I've seen all season that's really looked better than decent is Wheaton -- and Wheaton's been largely indifferent in CCIW games against everybody other than North Park. I haven't seen Augustana yet, but, that caveat aside, this doesn't look like a year in which the league really has any better-than-average teams. (That actually makes me even more upset that NPU is performing so badly this season.)

[Mr. Ypsi]

I'm never gonna understand baseball.   IWU is now 9-1 in conference road games and 4-6 in conference home games - and contrary to an earlier post I made it is NOT primarily a matter of WHO they played WHERE: 4 of their 6 home losses are to bottom-third NPU and Millikin!  They've somehow developed an allergy to Horenberger Field!

What's to understand, Chuck? I've already explained it:

To be fair to the Red Men, the only CCIW team that I've seen all season that's really looked better than decent is Wheaton -- and Wheaton's been largely indifferent in CCIW games against everybody other than North Park. I haven't seen Augustana yet, but, that caveat aside, this doesn't look like a year in which the league really has any better-than-average teams. (That actually makes me even more upset that NPU is performing so badly this season.)

That explains why (now that Augie no longer is receiving votes) the conference is getting totally shut out of the poll.  It doesn't at all explain why IWU is so dominant on the road and so pathetic at home.  After all, with the possible exception of really quirky basketball courts, whose deficiencies are vastly more familiar to the home team than to visitors, baseball probably has the greatest home field/court advantage of any sport by virtue of the home team batting last.

[Gregory Sager]

It's a random function of rampant mediocrity, that's all. Flip a coin long enough, and either heads or tails will occasionally come up in streaks or seven or eight straight flips.

The other aspect is that I don't think home field offers that much of an advantage in D3 college baseball, or at least in the CCIW version of it. Yes, the home team has an advantage in this sport in terms of batting last, but it's not nearly as big an edge as you think. Check out this interesting article by Joe Posnanski, who knows a thing or two about baseball. And on the D3 level, unlike football or basketball, there aren't sizeable crowds that can affect the emotional swing of a game. The only real difference in terms of the field itself is whether or not it's grass or Field Turf, because it's not as though coaches tailor their recruiting with their home ballparks in mind.

The CCIW's cumulative home record this season is 54-50 (.519), and the league's cumulative overall record is 163-146 (.528).

[iwumichigander]

Beyond the cumulative record, at this date. -  in conference play 6 of 9 teams are .500 or higher, in overall record, 7 of 9 te,as above .500 - it is not a matter of home field advantage in baseball unless you have a home park with quirky dimensions or conditions. (Like a Fenway in MLB or the high school That I Played against that deliberately titled the base paths and first three fee of the infield towards the dug outs making it difficult to bunt)

It is more, as Greg noted, a coin flip - when you have the better pitching and produce runs through hitting or being able to manufacture a run or two - you usually win regardless of home or away. And, like other sports, wether home or away, you beat the teams you, and the better league teams, are supposed to beat.

[BigPoppa]

It's a random function of rampant mediocrity, that's all. Flip a coin long enough, and either heads or tails will occasionally come up in streaks or seven or eight straight flips.

The other aspect is that I don't think home field offers that much of an advantage in D3 college baseball, or at least in the CCIW version of it. Yes, the home team has an advantage in this sport in terms of batting last, but it's not nearly as big an edge as you think. Check out this interesting article by Joe Posnanski, who knows a thing or two about baseball. And on the D3 level, unlike football or basketball, there aren't sizeable crowds that can affect the emotional swing of a game. The only real difference in terms of the field itself is whether or not it's grass or Field Turf, because it's not as though coaches tailor their recruiting with their home ballparks in mind.

The CCIW's cumulative home record this season is 54-50 (.519), and the league's cumulative overall record is 163-146 (.528).

They should. I know certain parks play differently. Wind almost always blow out to right at Carthage. The Short porch in right at NPU, etc... should load up on big lefties at each of those schools.

[Gregory Sager]

It's a random function of rampant mediocrity, that's all. Flip a coin long enough, and either heads or tails will occasionally come up in streaks or seven or eight straight flips.

The other aspect is that I don't think home field offers that much of an advantage in D3 college baseball, or at least in the CCIW version of it. Yes, the home team has an advantage in this sport in terms of batting last, but it's not nearly as big an edge as you think. Check out this interesting article by Joe Posnanski, who knows a thing or two about baseball. And on the D3 level, unlike football or basketball, there aren't sizeable crowds that can affect the emotional swing of a game. The only real difference in terms of the field itself is whether or not it's grass or Field Turf, because it's not as though coaches tailor their recruiting with their home ballparks in mind.

The CCIW's cumulative home record this season is 54-50 (.519), and the league's cumulative overall record is 163-146 (.528).

They should. I know certain parks play differently. Wind almost always blow out to right at Carthage. The Short porch in right at NPU, etc... should load up on big lefties at each of those schools.

That's what people tend to think the first time that they get a look at Holmgren. But the reality is that the field plays very differently than the way it looks. It's not the homer-happy bandbox that you think it is. It's true that this season there's been 2.36 homers hit there per game over the span of 11 games, but most of that has to do with the weak pitching that's been on display there this year (a lot of it North Park's). In 2016 there were only 1.13 homers per game hit at Holmgren in 17 games, and in 2015 there were only a miniscule 0.41 homers per game hit there in 17 games. In 2014 the rate was 1.44, and in 2013 it was 0.65.

Wind is very much a determining factor at Holmgren, because of the proximity of Lake Michigan (three miles to the east). As any astute Cubs fan will tell you, being close to a massive weather generator like Lake Michigan plays a huge role in field conditions. As often as not, the wind blows off the lake from the east, pushing against balls hit to right field. And because the stands at Holmgren are fairly low, they aren't much of a shield against easterly winds. The second-most common wind direction is from the north (i.e., down the fetch of Lake Michigan), which blows in from left field and generally knocks down everything hit in the air at Holmgren that isn't driven hard and low.

Yesterday was one of the rare days in which the wind was coming from one of the other directions; it came in from the southwest. The raindrops kept messing up my view and forcing me to repeatedly clean my press-box window, and that doesn't happen very often (I've watched massive rainstorms from the press box through clear windows, because the wind was coming from the east, i.e., from behind the stands). Still, even on a day that featured the three worst pitching staffs in the CCIW (NPU played Elmhurst in the first game and Carroll in the second game) and the wind blowing out to right, there were only four homers hit during those two games -- and only one of them was a so-called "Holmgren homer" hit to the front couple of rows in the shallowest part of the park (straightaway right field). In fact, as Mr. B will attest, most homers hit in Holmgren are not "Holmgren homers". I'd say that somewhere between a third and forty percent of them are.

The other thing that you have to keep in mind is that Holmgren's odd configuration, in which the stands are on a diagonal relative to the 1st-2nd and 3rd-home baselines, means that the directional window for a "Holmgren homer" is actually fairly narrow. The distance down the right-field line is pretty standard for a CCIW ballpark, about 320 feet or so if I recall correctly. The wall then slopes in sharply until you've got that short porch in straightaway right, then the distance recedes along that diagonal line until you get to the ramp area where the wall meets the portable fence in left. Dead center is marked as 405 feet, but the deepest part of the park, which is to the right of dead center at the end of the ramp area, is actually deeper than that. Speed is actually an important attribute for a left-handed hitter to have in Holmgren, because if you can find the gap in right-center you're going to have to hit it a long way to put it in the seats -- but you can leg out plenty of doubles there if you're fast enough, even if the ball doesn't bounce or roll all the way to the wall.

It's like Fenway's Green Monster. It's an inviting target for every right-handed hitter, but it's not as though balls constantly sail over the Monster during Red Sox games. Not counting notorious juicer Manny Ramirez, the only Red Sox right-handed hitters who hit 40 homers in a season are Jimmie Foxx (who did it twice), Jim Rice, Tony Armas, Dick "Dr. Strangeglove" Stuart, and Rico Petrocelli.

Loading up on big lefty bats (presumably to the detriment of other attributes) isn't nearly as sound a recruiting strategy for NPU as you think.

[Mr. Ypsi]

A couple of interesting games under way:

In Decatur, bottom of the 7th, MU already up over NCC 9-6, loads the bases with one out on two consecutive errors by the NCC ss.

In Moline, Carthage cruising at 6-3 after 6, then meltdown - 2 errors and 4 hits give Augie 4 unearned runs in the bottom of the 7th.

UPDATES:  NCC escapes with only one run allowed; now trail 10-6 in the 8th.  And I suppose it is only fitting in this season of sub-par CCIW baseball that Carthage goes back ahead 8-7 on two UNEARNED runs.

(Remember, I said they were interesting games, not necessarily well-played games! )

[Mr. Ypsi]

Millikin holds on to beat NCC, 10-7.  Carthage gets 2 more runs in the 9th to also win 10-7.

[BigPoppa]

It's a random function of rampant mediocrity, that's all. Flip a coin long enough, and either heads or tails will occasionally come up in streaks or seven or eight straight flips.

The other aspect is that I don't think home field offers that much of an advantage in D3 college baseball, or at least in the CCIW version of it. Yes, the home team has an advantage in this sport in terms of batting last, but it's not nearly as big an edge as you think. Check out this interesting article by Joe Posnanski, who knows a thing or two about baseball. And on the D3 level, unlike football or basketball, there aren't sizeable crowds that can affect the emotional swing of a game. The only real difference in terms of the field itself is whether or not it's grass or Field Turf, because it's not as though coaches tailor their recruiting with their home ballparks in mind.

The CCIW's cumulative home record this season is 54-50 (.519), and the league's cumulative overall record is 163-146 (.528).

They should. I know certain parks play differently. Wind almost always blow out to right at Carthage. The Short porch in right at NPU, etc... should load up on big lefties at each of those schools.

That's what people tend to think the first time that they get a look at Holmgren. But the reality is that the field plays very differently than the way it looks. It's not the homer-happy bandbox that you think it is. It's true that this season there's been 2.36 homers hit there per game over the span of 11 games, but most of that has to do with the weak pitching that's been on display there this year (a lot of it North Park's). In 2016 there were only 1.13 homers per game hit at Holmgren in 17 games, and in 2015 there were only a miniscule 0.41 homers per game hit there in 17 games. In 2014 the rate was 1.44, and in 2013 it was 0.65.

Wind is very much a determining factor at Holmgren, because of the proximity of Lake Michigan (three miles to the east). As any astute Cubs fan will tell you, being close to a massive weather generator like Lake Michigan plays a huge role in field conditions. As often as not, the wind blows off the lake from the east, pushing against balls hit to right field. And because the stands at Holmgren are fairly low, they aren't much of a shield against easterly winds. The second-most common wind direction is from the north (i.e., down the fetch of Lake Michigan), which blows in from left field and generally knocks down everything hit in the air at Holmgren that isn't driven hard and low.

Yesterday was one of the rare days in which the wind was coming from one of the other directions; it came in from the southwest. The raindrops kept messing up my view and forcing me to repeatedly clean my press-box window, and that doesn't happen very often (I've watched massive rainstorms from the press box through clear windows, because the wind was coming from the east, i.e., from behind the stands). Still, even on a day that featured the three worst pitching staffs in the CCIW (NPU played Elmhurst in the first game and Carroll in the second game) and the wind blowing out to right, there were only four homers hit during those two games -- and only one of them was a so-called "Holmgren homer" hit to the front couple of rows in the shallowest part of the park (straightaway right field). In fact, as Mr. B will attest, most homers hit in Holmgren are not "Holmgren homers". I'd say that somewhere between a third and forty percent of them are.

The other thing that you have to keep in mind is that Holmgren's odd configuration, in which the stands are on a diagonal relative to the 1st-2nd and 3rd-home baselines, means that the directional window for a "Holmgren homer" is actually fairly narrow. The distance down the right-field line is pretty standard for a CCIW ballpark, about 320 feet or so if I recall correctly. The wall then slopes in sharply until you've got that short porch in straightaway right, then the distance recedes along that diagonal line until you get to the ramp area where the wall meets the portable fence in left. Dead center is marked as 405 feet, but the deepest part of the park, which is to the right of dead center at the end of the ramp area, is actually deeper than that. Speed is actually an important attribute for a left-handed hitter to have in Holmgren, because if you can find the gap in right-center you're going to have to hit it a long way to put it in the seats -- but you can leg out plenty of doubles there if you're fast enough, even if the ball doesn't bounce or roll all the way to the wall.

It's like Fenway's Green Monster. It's an inviting target for every right-handed hitter, but it's not as though balls constantly sail over the Monster during Red Sox games. Not counting notorious juicer Manny Ramirez, the only Red Sox right-handed hitters who hit 40 homers in a season are Jimmie Foxx (who did it twice), Jim Rice, Tony Armas, Dick "Dr. Strangeglove" Stuart, and Rico Petrocelli.

Loading up on big lefty bats (presumably to the detriment of other attributes) isn't nearly as sound a recruiting strategy for NPU as you think.

I get that but it seems that if you need a 1B, you should be able to go find a LH power hitting corner infielder. Just like teams with huge outfields need fast outfielders to cover the gaps.

[BigPoppa]

As we head into the final weekend, the CCIW has become a very tight race. Top four get to keep playing baseball. Any predictions? In the even of rain, what is the CCIW policy if games cannot be played?

Illinois Wesleyan  13-8 Wheaton (3)   
Elmhurst               13-9 NCC (2)
North Central       11-8 Elmhurst (2), Carthage (2), Wheaton (1)
Augustana       12-9 NPU (3)
Wheaton               11-9 IWU (3), NCC (1)
Carthage               12-10 NCC (2)

Man... this could be be the best weekend EVER for CCIW scoreboard watching. Every 3 hours the entire conference scenario could shift based on each round of games. I really hope it doesn't come down to the Monday game between NCC and Wheaton. Carroll and Millikin square off in a three-game series, but neither is a factor for the post-season. There is a great chance I am checking the Carthage live stats while in the dugout at my own conference games this weekend.

[Gregory Sager]

I get that but it seems that if you need a 1B, you should be able to go find a LH power hitting corner infielder. Just like teams with huge outfields need fast outfielders to cover the gaps.

I don't have a beef with Luke Johnson using the right-handed Anthony Bragg at 1B. He's leading the league in hitting, he's ranked in the top five in doubles and the top ten in RBI, and Mr. B and I agree that he's the best defensive first baseman we've ever seen in this league -- and I've seen a lot of CCIW baseball over the years, and he's seen even more than I have.

As for your own team, BP, your Red Men had better get it done this weekend, because it looks like tough times ahead for your alma mater. While every team in the CCIW is going to lose key players to graduation, Carthage's losses this year will be absolutely catastrophic. The Red Men have 19 seniors and only 25 players who are eligible to return, according to the current roster posted (which is probably outdated by now, so there's likely fewer than 25). Seven of the eight everyday position players; 12 of the 15 position players who've been used in a dozen games or more; two of the three weekend starting pitchers from what is one of the three best weekend rotations in the league; and four of the eight pitchers who've hurled double-digit innings for the Red Men this season, will all be gone when 2018 rolls around.

[BigPoppa]

I get that but it seems that if you need a 1B, you should be able to go find a LH power hitting corner infielder. Just like teams with huge outfields need fast outfielders to cover the gaps.

I don't have a beef with Luke Johnson using the right-handed Anthony Bragg at 1B. He's leading the league in hitting, he's ranked in the top five in doubles and the top ten in RBI, and Mr. B and I agree that he's the best defensive first baseman we've ever seen in this league -- and I've seen a lot of CCIW baseball over the years, and he's seen even more than I have.

As for your own team, BP, your Red Men had better get it done this weekend, because it looks like tough times ahead for your alma mater. While every team in the CCIW is going to lose key players to graduation, Carthage's losses this year will be absolutely catastrophic. The Red Men have 19 seniors and only 25 players who are eligible to return, according to the current roster posted (which is probably outdated by now, so there's likely fewer than 25). Seven of the eight everyday position players; 12 of the 15 position players who've been used in a dozen games or more; two of the three weekend starting pitchers from what is one of the three best weekend rotations in the league; and four of the eight pitchers who've hurled double-digit innings for the Red Men this season, will all be gone when 2018 rolls around.

Please don't remind me. Carthage is senior heavy and not much proven depth behind it. And still they are an outside shot to reach the CCIW post-season.

[Gregory Sager]

Yep. Most of the teams in the CCIW are mediocre (or worse) because that's what their rosters dictated that they were. But North Central and Carthage are mediocre because they've underachieved. Forget the preseason poll; a team that has 19 seniors and which returned 12 of its top 13 position players and two of its three weekend starters from a team that had made the CCIW tourney the previous year should not be scuffling like this and trying to leapfrog two teams in the final weekend just to get into the CCIW tourney.

[BigPoppa]

Carthage's starting pitching seems to be good... it's their bullpen that has done them in. One of those times where you consider taking your third starter and putting him in the pen to close out the games with a quality arm when you have a late lead.

[Gregory Sager]

It is good, at least in relative terms. As I said, it's one of the top three weekend rotations in the league, along with Augustana's and Wheaton's. Those are the only three teams in the league that have three starters who don't get lit up like firecrackers every weekend by opposing bats.