FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[theoriginalupstate]

DVC did beat SJF in the playoffs last year and it looks like the Bombers will roll Lycoming with the way things are going at the moment-- another out-of-conference loss for the MAC!!.  

you already pointed this out, but it was last year.....

[Pat Coleman]

Plus I would hope the champ of the Empire 8 would beat the eighth-place team in any Division III conference.

[TecmoYellowHat]

Dan,

Do you think you can post this computer ranking? 

[ACMob]

I stated that thinking that would be DVC's argument.  Other than wishing them good luck, I'm rooting against them.  As for IC, I hope they win 'em all, but the last one.  I got to stick with the NJAC!!  I'd like to see a RU/IC final. 8)

Yes, Pat I agree.

 

[gordonmann]

I suspect last year's DVC-SJF result has had a residual affect on this year's poll.

To suggest the logical progression (with which you can certainly disagree):

  -> DVC beat the E8 Champ last year and ends the 2004 poll higher than SJF who ends higher than IC
  -> DVC, SJF and IC all return most of last year's players and new contributors are tough to evaluate early in teh season.
  -> DVC starts the season higher than SJF and IC.
  -> Even if IC is better than SJF, there's no proof that the E8 champ is better than DVC.
  -> DVC is higher than IC now

I'm not saying this is entirely consistent -- why was IC higher than SJF to start the season -- or right.  But that's my best guess as to why DVC is higher than IC.

[gordonmann]

ACMob:

For whatever reason your last post underlined a trend I've found curious (and that's it -- I'm not offended by it).

There seems to be a tilt among NJAC fans on these boards in favor of the E8 over the MAC.  And I think there might be a tilt in favor of the NJAC over the MAC on the E8 boards.

I thought it might be the natural product of both conference champs playing DVC in the playoffs last year.  But I even notice it among fans of teams like Widener or Cortland who weren't involved in those games.

Are there any thoughts as to why this anti-MAC alliance exists?  Is it maybe a reluctance to accept the MAC as a "real" East region conference since it was in the South pre-2004?  Is it based solely on distaste for DVC or does it extend to other MAC teams (to put it otherwise, would you as an NJAC person rather see IC or Wilkes win the East)?

Just curious to hear anyone's thoughts...

[theoriginalupstate]

why was IC higher than SJF to start the season

SJF only had like a handfull of returning starters!  They lost 3/4's of their front 4, all 4 of their starting LBers and their Free Saftey on Defense.  On offense they lost 4 starting lineman, a TE that signed w/ the KC Cheifs, their 2nd and 3rd WR's and a QB that threw 30 TDs.  So that's probably a good reason why IC was ranked higher than SJF going into the season. 

The program has shown the ability to bring in quality players and develop them over the past few seasons.  With all of what they lost and actually improve on your offensive production from the previous season is no small feat. 

As a team they are averaging:

554 yds of offense (253 rush, 301 pass)
53 pts a game
ONLY 2 punts a game (38.4 average, while allowing 0 yards on punt returns on the season!)
A completion % of 75 and only 1 INT on the year.

[ACMob]

GM-- sounds logical!  Who's to say that MT @ #3 is not stronger, this year, than the other two except for the fact that they made the Stagg Bowl last year!

As for your new post, I'll give you my take later.

[JT]

TCNJ game photos and story with after game fireworks pics is up:

http://www.rowanfootball.com

[gordonmann]

Original:

I understand that.  That's why I had Ithaca higher on my ballot than SJF to start the year.

The question was a rhetorical one to admit there are flaws in the logical progression that leads to DVC's higher ranking than IC.

[dpadavona]

Gordon -

I track all D3 teams, including common opponents from other divisions.  So the process is iterative so all scores are compared, and thus theoretically Husson can be compared to Linfield.

YellowHat, Gordon and others -

I have ratings back to 1999.  I put the ratings into a spreadsheet so I could look at yearly trends, and the average strength for a team each year.  The difference in ratings between 2 teams is an approximation of the score differential between them.  So if Rowan is a 50, and Kean is a 10, expect Rowan to win by 40 on a neutral field.

Here are some ratings tidbits:

The average rating for Ithaca back to 1999 is 36.  Their strongest year was 2004 when the rating was 45.3.  Their current 2005 rating is 50.1, which suggests they are 6 points stronger than a very strong team one year ago.

The average rating for Rowan back to 1999 is 47.  Their strongest year was 2001 when the rating was 62.1.  So far this season their rating is 49.3, which is definitely above average but not as powerful as 2001.  We'll see.

The average rating for Cortland back to 1999 is 30.  Basically they've hugged this line for several years without much fluctuation.  This season so far they are 40.3, which is stronger than the average IC team but not as strong as this season's perhaps.

Some other ratings of interest -

Linfield 71
John Carroll 49.5
SJ Fisher 47.7
Hobart 38.7
CNU 36.3
Brockport 30.9
Montclair 28.6
Kean 21.8
Bridgewater St (MA) 14.3 - the best the NEFC has to offer so far
Husson 10.6

So Kean would probably win the NEFC, and Linfield would probably beat IC by 3 touchdowns on a neutral field.  The ratings will move a lot more since we are only 1/2 way through the season.

[dpadavona]

Since we are debating ratings, so far my system places Mt Union as far and away the best team going in 2005.  Better than Linfield and Mary-Hardin Baylor.

My top-4 so far are:

1.  Mt Union
2.  UW-Whitewater
3.  Linfield
4.  St Johns

[gordonmann]

That's very, very interesting.

Thanks.

[rams1102]

Gordon,

Ithaca, they are simply better. If it were reversed I would pick Wilks.

[Knightstalker]

I read that Montclair would be honoring Sam Mills during the half time of the Kean MSU game this season.  It was in the Star Ledger.