FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[Frank Rossi]

Would not Westfield States's opponents, Lycoming's opponents and Ithaca's opponents WP also fit into the mix.  Would not Cortland get the benefit of E8 strength via Ithaca and Rowan the benefit of MAC strength via Lycoming as opposed to Montclairs  NEFC via Westfield St.?

Yes and no.  Remember, any teams that plays in a conference will have a winning percentage that skews toward .500.  So, yes, a stronger conference by an opponent can help, but it won't necessarily outplay the loss scenario I posed.  Specifically, did the NEFC teams Westfield played compile seven more wins than the E8 schools Ithaca played or the MAC teams Lycoming played (assuming equal numbers of opponents)?  Because that's the key -- the Cortland OOC loss would provide it a +7 advantage.  Whereas the OOC opponent may be a negligible benefit.

[gordonmann]

Fran:

Please ask the Red Dragons to lose this weekend so we don't have to worry about all this.

[theoriginalupstate]

Fran:

Please ask the Red Dragons to lose this weekend so we don't have to worry about all this.

Yeah Cortland, don't be so selfish...

Think of the region...

Go 8-2 and beat up on Lyco or Hobart in the ECAC's...

[clandfan]

Would not Westfield States's opponents, Lycoming's opponents and Ithaca's opponents WP also fit into the mix.  Would not Cortland get the benefit of E8 strength via Ithaca and Rowan the benefit of MAC strength via Lycoming as opposed to Montclairs  NEFC via Westfield St.?

If it is truly OOWP then it would have to be advantage Cortland regardless of the Cortaca outcome.  Ithaca's opponents WP is significantly higher than Lycoming's or Westfield States and that would not appear to change significantly given the remaining schedule being primarily conrference games.  A cortland win over IC would not influence the OOWP enough for Montclair or Rowan to overcome the E8 strength that works to Cortlands advantage.


Am I missing something?

[Frank Rossi]

Would not Westfield States's opponents, Lycoming's opponents and Ithaca's opponents WP also fit into the mix.  Would not Cortland get the benefit of E8 strength via Ithaca and Rowan the benefit of MAC strength via Lycoming as opposed to Montclairs  NEFC via Westfield St.?

If it is truly OOWP then it would have to be advantage Cortland regardless of the Cortaca outcome.  Ithaca's opponents WP is significantly higher than Lycoming's or Westfield States and that would not appear to change significantly given the remaining schedule being primarily conrference games.  A cortland win over IC would not influence the OOWP enough for Montclair or Rowan to overcome the E8 strength that works to Cortlands advantage.


Am I missing something?

Yes.  Specifically, the fact that Montclair is at .574 OOWP right now and Cortland is at .559.  Thus, even with three weeks left, those numbers are not a great thing for Cortland currently.  Remeber, though, that Pat's in-region numbers may not be exactly accurate for NJAC tiebreaker purposes.

[clandfan]

Don't forget though that Cortland's OOWP does not yet include the E8.  It will jump significantly after the Ithaca game...win or lose.

If Ithaca loses to Alfred and Cortland...Montclair's and Rowan's OOWP decreases.  While Cortland enjoys a robust E8 WP to be offset only by Westfields record.

No doubt...Cortland needs to beat Montclair.  as for the rest ( and I haven't crunched the numbers)  as soon as the E8 figures into Cortland's OOWP  I have to believe that Cortland's OOWP has to better both Montclair's and Rowans.  but...as I said, I haven't crunched the numbers....maybe you have.

[Frank Rossi]

Don't forget though that Cortland's OOWP does not yet include the E8.  It will jump significantly after the Ithaca game...win or lose.

If Ithaca loses to Alfred and Cortland...Montclair's and Rowan's OOWP decreases.  While Cortland enjoys a robust E8 WP to be offset only by Westfields record.

No doubt...Cortland needs to beat Montclair.  as for the rest ( and I haven't crunched the numbers)  as soon as the E8 figures into Cortland's OOWP  I have to believe that Cortland's OOWP has to better both Montclair's and Rowans.  but...as I said, I haven't crunched the numbers....maybe you have.

Remember, Cortland wouldn't get credit for Ithaca's W/L.  Thus, the E8 minus ITH is closer to .500 than you think.

[clandfan]

Its not just the E8.  It's LL crossovers. Lyco and Widener.  IC has 4 OOC games.  Even if Widener, Union Hartwick go a combined 0-9, SJF, Alfred, Lyco will just about make up for it.  Throw in another win or two by Springfield and a St. Lawrence win over Rochester it will be about what it is now.  a .620 OWP

To Date:
St. Lawrence 4-4
Union             2-4
Widener         3-4
Lycoming        5-2
Hartwick         2-4
SJF                  7-1
Springfield      5-2   28-21 to date

Utica               5-2
Alfred              6-1  11-3 yet to play

[clandfan]

Dont want to beat a dead horse so I will make this one more point and let it go...If Cortland and Rowan win out and Cortland, Montclair and Rowan are all 9-1....

The OOWP in conference is a wash
The OOWP for OOC opponents is a wash except for each other's OOC OOWP.  So

Cortland would be the WP of Ithaca's opponents  Plus Lyco and Westfield St.  (cortland gets Lyco's record twice as both Rowan and IC played them)

Montclair would be the WP of Westfield States opponents plus Lyco plus Ithaca.

Rowan would be the WP of Lycoming"s opponents plus Ithaca and Westfield St.

I could be wrong but even with Westfield St., I think Ithaca's opponents WP would be higher.

[MSU Pride]

All of this tiebreaker jargon will be put to rest on Saturday when my Redhawks come to Cortland 


"KEEP POUNDING"

Sam Mills

[cstate19]

This is making my head hurt.  You can cue the "dumb Cortland grad" jokes but jeesh this is crazy.  How about a Cortland win and a Rowan loss?  Doesn't that make things easy?

[clandfan]

or that.

[rams1102]

All of this tiebreaker jargon will be put to rest on Saturday when my Redhawks come to Cortland 


"KEEP POUNDING"

Sam Mills

Well said.

[MSU Pride]

Ok, so I convinced some of my alum to take a road trip to Cortland!!! Maybe we will run into some of our old foes, J.J Tutweiler hahah..

Let's go Redhawks, this is why you come to Montclair, to play in a game like this, play as a unit, fast and physical and show everyone why were are number 1 in the region!!!!

watch your knees these boys are dirty!!

"Keep Pounding"

Sam Mills

[PBR...]

All of this tiebreaker jargon will be put to rest on Saturday when my Redhawks come to Cortland 


"KEEP POUNDING"

Sam Mills

pls pls montclair take care of bizness....would have no problem w/ montclair #1 in the east bracket and dvc #2....anything to keep all the other muc/wesley out.