FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[theoriginalupstate]

82, if you think there's a dominant team in the East, who do you think it is? And please, please, please don't say who I think you will......

He said in a previous post on here that "we should give DVC a chance" or something, so it's not who you're thinking of...

[Pat Coleman]

Obvi d3football.com's top 25 has influence, they have you on selection show Saturday every year...

Because our poll has influence? No, because I'm a person capable of talking knowledgeably about Division III football and without bias.

[theoriginalupstate]

Obvi d3football.com's top 25 has influence, they have you on selection show Saturday every year...

Because our poll has influence? No, because I'm a person capable of talking knowledgeably about Division III football and without bias.

That and can correctly pronounce Allegheny...

[Pat Coleman]

Obvi d3football.com's top 25 has influence, they have you on selection show Saturday every year...

Because our poll has influence? No, because I'm a person capable of talking knowledgeably about Division III football and without bias.

That and can correctly pronounce Allegheny...

2003: The selection show that will live in infamy. Producer called me to apologize as I was driving home from the remote shot that year.

[Pat Coleman]

I am sorry but this is ridiculous...You still have yet to give me one valid reason why MSU has dropped from 13 in your polls to out of the top 25...

I am glad you are sorry, but I have given you reasons. I'm sorry you don't recognize them as valid but we've been doing this Top 25 thing for a while and I know how to read the tea leaves.

Voter confidence in Montclair has clearly been pretty soft, and now, potentially, you "have" to rank two NJAC teams above them. You either have to vote for three NJAC teams or pick and choose which side of the triangle you leave out. No-win situation for a voter to have three 1-loss teams who all split against each other and try to choose where to put them.

Voter confidence in Montclair has clearly been pretty soft, and now, potentially, you "have" to rank two NJAC teams above them. You either have to vote for three NJAC teams or pick and choose which side of the triangle you leave out. No-win situation for a voter to have three 1-loss teams who all split against each other and try to choose where to put them.

[DanPadavona]

It's really something JT.  The only problem is that "Cortaca" has taken on a life of its own.  It's almost become like the Rocky Horror Picture Show.  People go because it's the thing to do, but nobody remembers what happened in the movie.

One of these days I'd like to see RPI-Union too, and travel to Salem for the national championship.

I've got a few I want to see Cortaca, The Shoes, The Secretaries Cup, one of the big Texas games, a Rowan Stagg win... off the top of my head.

I want to travel to Texas to see West Dillon play East Dillon on Friday Night Lights.   Tim Riggins ftw! 

[RedDragonFan]

It's really something JT.  The only problem is that "Cortaca" has taken on a life of its own.  It's almost become like the Rocky Horror Picture Show.  People go because it's the thing to do, but nobody remembers what happened in the movie.

One of these days I'd like to see RPI-Union too, and travel to Salem for the national championship.

I've got a few I want to see Cortaca, The Shoes, The Secretaries Cup, one of the big Texas games, a Rowan Stagg win... off the top of my head.

I want to travel to Texas to see West Dillon play East Dillon on Friday Night Lights.   Tim Riggins ftw!  

Don't mean to go all "The Best of Times" on this topic but would love to travel back in time and replay a HS game from my sophomore year that we won after 5 years of no win football and as important, stick around for the after party that night!

[DanPadavona]

Here's a thought on how to earn some quick respect for the NJAC.  Take down MUC in an early round of the playoffs. Any NJAC team doing this would yield instant credibility no? 

Bingo.  Read post on the East Region Playoff thread. 

http://www.d3boards.com/index.php?topic=4930.2670

True, but a bit unfair too.  Mount Union and Whitewater are heads and shoulders above everyone else.  The same argument made about East teams could be applied to Otterbein.  When was the last time they beat Mount Union?  When was the last time a Northern Region team eliminated Mount Union from the playoffs?

[DanPadavona]

2) Yes there is a difference between 9-1 and 10-0...a 10-0 E8/MAC/NJAC/LL team gets the #1 seed, why they can't do it is beyond me.  

Totally agree with most everything you have written, but actually #2 is untrue.  Statistically, there is very little difference between a 0 loss team and a 1 loss team.  Although I don't have links readily available, many studies have found this to be true.  Unless you are overwhelmingly better than your competition (Mount Union, Whitewater), you are almost as likely to lose 1 game as you are to go undefeated provided you play a decent schedule.

How often do BCS teams go undefeated these days?  Not often.  Better to be Boise State and run the table against an inferior league, than be Alabama, Auburn, Florida, etc and have to do it in the SEC.

You want a 10-0 Cortland or Fisher team?  Put them in the ECFC or the NEFC. 

Just looking at some of the undefeated teams in 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Wesley - Could easily have 2 losses.  Barely edged Del Valley and Salisbury
St Thomas - Snuck past St Johns and Bethel
UMHB - Very close wins against Lacrosse, Louisiana College, and ETx Baptist
Wittenberg - Three very close calls against Allegheny, Oberlin, and Carnegie-Mellon
Wartburg - Barely beat a 4-4 Luther team
Wheaton - Three close wins against Augustana, Carthage, and Elmhurst

and on and on...

In any of these cases, one fluke play, missed XP or FG, or whatever could have changed the final outcomes.  You could still argue "the better team won," but statistical studies show that teams which win a lot of close games are "luckier" than teams which win by blowouts.  That much is obvious.  I just don't buy the argument that a 0 loss team is inherently better than a 1 loss team.  Upsets happen all the time.

[JT]

Obvi d3football.com's top 25 has influence, they have you on selection show Saturday every year...

Because our poll has influence? No, because I'm a person capable of talking knowledgeably about Division III football and without bias.

Plus the camera just loves Pat.

[Mr. Ypsi]

2) Yes there is a difference between 9-1 and 10-0...a 10-0 E8/MAC/NJAC/LL team gets the #1 seed, why they can't do it is beyond me.  

Totally agree with most everything you have written, but actually #2 is untrue.  Statistically, there is very little difference between a 0 loss team and a 1 loss team.  Although I don't have links readily available, many studies have found this to be true.  Unless you are overwhelmingly better than your competition (Mount Union, Whitewater), you are almost as likely to lose 1 game as you are to go undefeated provided you play a decent schedule.

How often do BCS teams go undefeated these days?  Not often.  Better to be Boise State and run the table against an inferior league, than be Alabama, Auburn, Florida, etc and have to do it in the SEC.

You want a 10-0 Cortland or Fisher team?  Put them in the ECFC or the NEFC. 

Just looking at some of the undefeated teams in 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Wesley - Could easily have 2 losses.  Barely edged Del Valley and Salisbury
St Thomas - Snuck past St Johns and Bethel
UMHB - Very close wins against Lacrosse, Louisiana College, and ETx Baptist
Wittenberg - Three very close calls against Allegheny, Oberlin, and Carnegie-Mellon
Wartburg - Barely beat a 4-4 Luther team
Wheaton - Three close wins against Augustana, Carthage, and Elmhurst

and on and on...

In any of these cases, one fluke play, missed XP or FG, or whatever could have changed the final outcomes.  You could still argue "the better team won," but statistical studies show that teams which win a lot of close games are "luckier" than teams which win by blowouts.  That much is obvious.  I just don't buy the argument that a 0 loss team is inherently better than a 1 loss team.  Upsets happen all the time.

What you say is likely true, but seemingly irrelevant to the selection committee.  Now that they have abandoned 'pure' regional 'regions', I doubt we'll ever again see a #1 seed who is not undefeated.  And 2-loss pool C teams are definitely an endangered species (despite the fact that as recently as 2008, Wheaton got a surprise bid with 2 losses and proceeded to reach the national semi-finals).

Number of losses (0 for #1s, maximum of 1 for pool Cs) seems to trump virtually all other criteria.

[theoriginalupstate]

2) Yes there is a difference between 9-1 and 10-0...a 10-0 E8/MAC/NJAC/LL team gets the #1 seed, why they can't do it is beyond me.  

Totally agree with most everything you have written, but actually #2 is untrue.  Statistically, there is very little difference between a 0 loss team and a 1 loss team.  Although I don't have links readily available, many studies have found this to be true.  Unless you are overwhelmingly better than your competition (Mount Union, Whitewater), you are almost as likely to lose 1 game as you are to go undefeated provided you play a decent schedule.

How often do BCS teams go undefeated these days?  Not often.  Better to be Boise State and run the table against an inferior league, than be Alabama, Auburn, Florida, etc and have to do it in the SEC.

You want a 10-0 Cortland or Fisher team?  Put them in the ECFC or the NEFC. 

Just looking at some of the undefeated teams in 2010
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Wesley - Could easily have 2 losses.  Barely edged Del Valley and Salisbury
St Thomas - Snuck past St Johns and Bethel
UMHB - Very close wins against Lacrosse, Louisiana College, and ETx Baptist
Wittenberg - Three very close calls against Allegheny, Oberlin, and Carnegie-Mellon
Wartburg - Barely beat a 4-4 Luther team
Wheaton - Three close wins against Augustana, Carthage, and Elmhurst

and on and on...

In any of these cases, one fluke play, missed XP or FG, or whatever could have changed the final outcomes.  You could still argue "the better team won," but statistical studies show that teams which win a lot of close games are "luckier" than teams which win by blowouts.  That much is obvious.  I just don't buy the argument that a 0 loss team is inherently better than a 1 loss team.  Upsets happen all the time.

I know in reality and on game days there is little (if any) difference between a 9-1 and a 10-0 team, however the NCAA doesn't always deal in realities...

[DanPadavona]

What you say is likely true, but seemingly irrelevant to the selection committee.  Now that they have abandoned 'pure' regional 'regions', I doubt we'll ever again see a #1 seed who is not undefeated.  And 2-loss pool C teams are definitely an endangered species (despite the fact that as recently as 2008, Wheaton got a surprise bid with 2 losses and proceeded to reach the national semi-finals).

Number of losses (0 for #1s, maximum of 1 for pool Cs) seems to trump virtually all other criteria.

Absolutely.  I very much expect to see all 10-0 teams in the #1 slots, and honestly it's hard to argue that they shouldn't get them.  I wouldn't be surprised to see the luck factor shift in future seasons however, with a few undefeated East teams at the top of the regional bracket.  If Montclair makes that FG, they're that team.  If Cortland holds the lead against Rowan and defeats IC, they are that team.  DV nearly did it to Wesley to be a #1.  Fisher is that team if Alfred doesn't play the game of their season against them.  We'll see a few East teams run the table in coming years.  I'm quite sure of it.

[rams1102]

Let's forget all of this Poll stuff. Let's figure that Montclair, Cortland and Rowan win the balance NJAC games (Montclair with the toughest last games) therefore everyone is 8-1. Who will get the nod? Will the out of conference games play a part?

[Jonny Utah]

Let's forget all of this Poll stuff. Let's figure that Montclair, Cortland and Rowan win the balance NJAC games (Montclair with the toughest last games) therefore everyone is 8-1. Who will get the nod? Will the out of conference games play a part?

Have we gotten a straigt answer about the tiebreaker in the NJAC yet?