FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[rams1102]

OK, far be it from me to be the voice of reason here, but I think I need to provide an example of what happens to a pollster in these situations.  Remember, I'm the voice of the "Protect the East Bracket" movement -- so take this for what it's worth.

Coming into the weekend, here were my rankings for East teams:

5 Delaware Valley
12 Montclair State
20 Alfred
23 St. John Fisher
24 Rowan

After the weekend, here are my present rankings:

5 Delaware Valley
19 St. John Fisher
20 Cortland State
21 Montclair State
22 Rowan

I dropped Montclair 9 places.  My reason:  I believe SJF has played a better schedule than the NJAC teams (subjective analysis).  I thought the narrow loss allowed me to slide Montclair between Cortland and Rowan for the time being (although, the next couple weeks can change that ordering based on performance).  At the same time, I couldn't propel SJF any further than I did, as I gave the team a little lift in its defeat of Utica (but had to temper my enthusiasm with the Alfred loss).  I had to grapple with this for a while, but there's no way out of the triangle for the time being.  I handled it with as much rationality as I could use between these four teams.

That said, let's look at how my move magnified across the poll would affect Montclair.  There are 25 voters.  Nine spots times 25 voters = 225 points.  Montclair had 306 points coming into the weekend.  Subtract:  306-225 = 81. Montclair was actually at 51 points this week. So, the average drop was in fact TEN spots, not 14 spots.  As Pat pointed out, the points between #23 and #27 are so tight, other subtle movements in the poll ballots accounted for the severe drop -- not the attempt by voters to punish MSU.  Specifically, #23 was 62, #24 was 61, #25 was 55, #26 was 54 and #27 was 51 (11 points separting 5 slots).  This isn't so much an "East bias" -- it's some non-MSU movement creating a couple ripples and making it seem like the voters trashed MSU.  I was very consistent with the average movement, and you can see that my drop was reasonable in light of the events.  My claim is this was consistent with all voters (on average).

I know this may not solve the upset out there.  However, I think it shows some of the oddities that can happen when poll results get compiled.  Hope this helps.

Thanks for your explanation, it makes sense. I also feel there is a slight bias to Montclair. In week #7 Fisher was ranked #19 and were beat by Alfred that received 8 votes. Fisher then drops 4 slots in week #8. Now in week #8 Montclair was ranked #14 and we were beat by Cortland ( 1 point) that received 7 votes. Montclair then drops 13 slots in week #9. Why? I'm sure there will be a logical explanation, but as of now I will stick to other topics. Let's see what the NCAA does with the regional rankings. My guess Montclair goes to #6 and they should be at #4 IMHO. Thoughts.

[Knightstalker]

BTW, as a TCNJ fan, I wish I had something to argue about... or a tiebreaker rule that would affect me...

As a Brockport Fan, I feel your pain.  +K for your troubles!

As an NJCU fan at least it has been years since the Knights lost a football game.

[Knightstalker]

BTW, as a TCNJ fan, I wish I had something to argue about... or a tiebreaker rule that would affect me...

Phil...you can beat Rowan in two weeks and make this all a lot simpler.

Stranger things have happened in the NJAC.  That is a strong possibility.

[theoriginalupstate]

Man I missed one hell of a pissing match...

+K for the entertainment...

[Jonny Utah]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

[dlippiel]

dlip posted that MSU was 13th he apologizes he made a mistake . They still dropped WAY TOO FAR in the poll though, and that, to dlip, is still unacceptable. By the way, Frank your analysis is much appreciated and gives certain merit to MSU dropping but dlip still disagrees with that much of a drop for loss by a point to a traditional East Power like Cortland.

[lewdogg11]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

If TCU loses to Utah 10-9, they drop to 15 or 16.  If they lose to San Diego St. 10-9, they drop out of the poll.

If Montclair lost to Western CT 10-9, it makes more sense to drop out of the poll.  But to Cortland....I think 22-23 would have been a little more realistic.

[Jonny Utah]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

If TCU loses to Utah 10-9, they drop to 15 or 16.  If they lose to San Diego St. 10-9, they drop out of the poll.

If Montclair lost to Western CT 10-9, it makes more sense to drop out of the poll.  But to Cortland....I think 22-23 would have been a little more realistic.

True, but TCU is ranked #5 while Montclair was ranked #14.  That tells me pollsters were not that high on Montclair in the first place.  I also think if SJF played Montclair, SJF would win.  There were simply too many teams that had to move up from #20-#30 last week that Montclair kind of got the shaft.

Montclair has not been impressive with their wins this year.  If you want to be ranked in the top 20, you should be able to blow out some teams, especially in the bottom of the NJAC.  Montclair has not done that.

[Bombers798891]

Regarding Montclair being whatever they were last week--I don't want to post a number that may be wrong and start a ****ing match again.

Not to go all AFCA on us, but it seems to me that some voters may not really be sold on Montclair but see that "0" in the loss column, and knowing that Montclair isn't exactly Norwich, figure that they should be ranked highly just based on being a legit undefeated team. I feel like Ithaca's risen to the Top 10 in the polls a couple of years when they started out unbeaten ('05 maybe?) but they're getting an extra couple spots just because, well, they're unbeaten. But once that goes, the whole thing kind of goes away.

I do find it astounding that a poll generated this much anger. I guess that's the nature of polls in that they exist to create discussion, but this is sometimes the unfortunate downside

[RedDragonFan]

Man I missed one hell of a pissing match...

+K for the entertainment...

Self-deprecation alert...Everyone take a deep breath and count to 10...CState fans ask for help if needed. (If I didn't say it someone would have!)

[Pat Coleman]

Regarding Montclair being whatever they were last week--I don't want to post a number that may be wrong and start a ****ing match again.

As long as you don't edit your post to change what you said and then start lashing out at people uninvolved in the conversation, you're set. 

[phil]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

Understood, but the teams you mentioned lost by an average of 18 points and dropped less than Montclair. Montclair lost by a point on a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of the game. Under the circumstances, I would have to assume that Montclair could have dropped several spots even if the field goal was made and MSU won 12-10.

[Bombers798891]

Man I missed one hell of a pissing match...

+K for the entertainment...

Self-deprecation alert...Everyone take a deep breath and count to 10...CState fans ask for help if needed. (If I didn't say it someone would have!)

Look, if you can't reach your toes, just use your fingers 

[Jonny Utah]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

Understood, but the teams you mentioned lost by an average of 18 points and dropped less than Montclair. Montclair lost by a point on a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of the game. Under the circumstances, I would have to assume that Montclair could have dropped several spots even if the field goal was made and MSU won 12-10.

Again that is true.  But I  think Michigan State, Missouri, Oklahoma or Iowa can beat any team in the country at home.

I don't see Montclair State having a chance to win a game against the top 10 teams.

Also, Michigan State, Missouri and Oklahoma have all beaten numerous top 25 teams throughout the season.

[phil]

I think the main point you guys are missing is that there are so many teams with 1 or 2 losses, a 13 spot drop in the rankings isn't that unusual, especially when you were raked at the bottom of the undefeated teams in the first place.

Oklahoma was #1 in the country in week 8.  They lose and drop 8 spots to #9 in week 9.  Where do you think TCU would be ranked if they lost?

Missouri loses and drops 7 spots.

Michigan State drops 9 spots (11 spots in the coaches poll)

Understood, but the teams you mentioned lost by an average of 18 points and dropped less than Montclair. Montclair lost by a point on a missed chip-shot field goal at the end of the game. Under the circumstances, I would have to assume that Montclair could have dropped several spots even if the field goal was made and MSU won 12-10.

Again that is true.  But I  think Michigan State, Missouri, Oklahoma or Iowa can beat any team in the country at home.

I don't see Montclair State having a chance to win a game against the top 10 teams.

Also, Michigan State, Missouri and Oklahoma have all beaten numerous top 25 teams throughout the season.

Hmmmm, so the NJAC became the WAC of D3 somewhere along the way.
Worst thing the NJAC has done was to include Morrisville, WestConn and Buffalo St. The inclusion of Brockport hasn't benefitted the NJAC either – but who could have predicted their mediocrity. At least in the past teams like TCNJ, Rowan, Montclair and Cortland had extra games to prove themselves outside the conference (as tough as scheduling was with the lack of teams willing to schedule them). Still, your comment that Rowan, Montclair or Cortland wouldn't have a chance to beat a top 10 team seems a little strong...