FB: New Jersey Athletic Conference

[rams1102]

Here are the differing OOWP variables, assuming Cortland, Montclair and Rowan all finish at 9-1.  Note that the .5's in the computations rely on the fact that teams inside the OOWP calculations will still play each other next weekend, and *'s in the computation represent games that could add a win or a loss next week for the team's totals:

Lycoming (Rowan) - 5-4

Rowan 9-1
Westminster (Pa.) 2-7
Ithaca 6-3 (6-4)
King's 1-8
Albright 5-4
Widener 4-5
Delaware Valley 8-1
Wilkes 5-4
Lebanon Valley 5-4
FDU-Florham 3-6
** - All MAC teams play conference games next week (But Lyco plays FDU still), Westminster plays Geneva

Westfield St. (Montclair) - 5-5

Nichols 1-9
Montclair St. 9-1
Western New England 8-2
Worcester St. 5-5
Bridgewater St. 5-5
Maine Maritime 8-1 ***
Coast Guard 2-7
Framingham St. 8-2
Mass. Maritime 5-5
Fitchburg St. 1-9
*** - Only team remaining with a game left


Ithaca (Cortland) - 6-3 (6-4)

St. Lawrence 4-5
Union 2-6
Widener 4-5
Lycoming 5-4
Hartwick 3-5
St. John Fisher 8-2
Springfield 7-2
Utica 5-4
Alfred 7-2
Cortland St. 9-1
**** - UNI/SPR+, ALF/UTI+, WID/DVC, LYC/FDU, SLU/WPI, HAR/IDA (SJF Idle)

Cortland: Westfield St. + Lycoming + Ithaca's Opponents, not including Cortland:

5-5 + 5-4* + 4-5* + 2.5-6.5 + 4-5* + 5-4* + 3-5* + 8-2 + 7.5-2.5 + 5.5-4.5 + 7.5-2.5 = 57-46

Rowan: Westfield St. + Ithaca + Lycoming's Opponents, not including Rowan:

5-5 + 6-4 + 2-7* + 6-4 + 1.5-8.5 + 5.5-4.5 + 4.5-5.5 + 8.5-1.5 + 5.5-4.5 + 5.5-4.5 + 3-6* = 53-55

Montclair: Lycoming + Ithaca + Westfield St.'s Opponents, not including Montclair:

5-4* + 6-4 + 1-9 + 8-2 + 5-5 + 5-5 + 8-1* + 2-7 + 8-2 + 5-5 + 1-9 = 54-53

------------

Here's what it all means:  Cortland's worst possible OOWP would be 57-51.  Montclair's BEST OOWP would be 56-53.  Rowan's BEST OOWP would be 55-55.  Therefore, since Cortland's OOWP is better WITH A LOSS TO ITHACA (trust me in this statistic), Cortland cannot lose the OOWP tiebreaker.  Thus, if Montclair wins or if both Rowan and Montclair lose, Cortland clinches the NJAC regardless of result in the Cortaca Jug game.

Based on your senario, if Montclair wins and Rowan wins, Cortland is the NJAC Champ and if the NCAA decides to give a pool "C" to the NJAC it may go to Montclair since they beat Rowan?

[Frank Rossi]

Based on your senario, if Montclair wins and Rowan wins, Cortland is the NJAC Champ and if the NCAA decides to give a pool "C" to the NJAC it may go to Montclair since they beat Rowan?

I can't say that last part for sure, since Rowan was listed ahead in the latest Regional Rankings.  I assume that the NCAA would re-look once Cortland is removed from the equation, although the common opponent mechanism would still exist (Rowan beat a quality opponent, while Montclair lost to the same one).  Head-to-head meetings are NOT placed as any more important than other criteria in the Manual -- one would think they are very important, but that's the Committee's prerogative to decide.

[XREDDRAGON77]

With all of this number crunching done....has Cortland won the NJAC?  Is this something that can't officially be stated until the last whistle is blown next week?

[Frank Rossi]

With all of this number crunching done....has Cortland won the NJAC?  Is this something that can't officially be stated until the last whistle is blown next week?

No, Cortland HAS NOT won the NJAC.  If Montclair loses and Rowan wins, Rowan wins the NJAC.  Montclair appears to be eliminated from Pool A contention, assuming my numbers are correct.

[rams1102]

Based on your senario, if Montclair wins and Rowan wins, Cortland is the NJAC Champ and if the NCAA decides to give a pool "C" to the NJAC it may go to Montclair since they beat Rowan?

I can't say that last part for sure, since Rowan was listed ahead in the latest Regional Rankings.  I assume that the NCAA would re-look once Cortland is removed from the equation, although the common opponent mechanism would still exist (Rowan beat a quality opponent, while Montclair lost to the same one).  Head-to-head meetings are NOT placed as any more important than other criteria in the Manual -- one would think they are very important, but that's the Committee's prerogative to decide.

If what you say is accurate (and I have no reason to dispute it) my guess is that Montclair goes to the ECAC'S if they win out.

[Frank Rossi]

Assuming Pacific Lutheran and Redlands wins (and records are included that would represent such wins), here are the teams competing for Pool C with 0- or 1-loss(es) (* - Team could win its conference's Pool A Automatic Bid still):

Hardin-Simmons (8-1) -- at Louisiana College (6-3)
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1) -- at Millikin (4-5)
Montclair St. (8-1) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5)
* Rowan (8-1) -- at New Jersey (5-4)
* Cortland (8-1) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1) -- vs. Willamette (7-2)
Ohio Northern (8-1) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4)
Hampden-Sydney (8-1) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2)
Coe (8-1) -- at Cornell (0-9)
Redlands (7-1) -- vs. Chapman (4-4)
Bethel (8-1) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5)
* Wittenberg (9-0) -- at Wooster (5-4)


I will go back and add SoS figures once all games go final since these numbers would be affected -- and if Pacific Lutheran and/or Redlands lose, I will delete accordingly.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Based on your senario, if Montclair wins and Rowan wins, Cortland is the NJAC Champ and if the NCAA decides to give a pool "C" to the NJAC it may go to Montclair since they beat Rowan?

I can't say that last part for sure, since Rowan was listed ahead in the latest Regional Rankings.  I assume that the NCAA would re-look once Cortland is removed from the equation, although the common opponent mechanism would still exist (Rowan beat a quality opponent, while Montclair lost to the same one).  Head-to-head meetings are NOT placed as any more important than other criteria in the Manual -- one would think they are very important, but that's the Committee's prerogative to decide.

If what you say is accurate (and I have no reason to dispute it) my guess is that Montclair goes to the ECAC'S if they win out.

If Montclair, Rowan, and Cortland ALL win out, I think there is at least a 50-50 chance of the NJAC getting two pool Cs.  There is (so far) a glut of 9-1 pool C teams, but it will no doubt shrink a bit next week.

Without totally obsessing on the possibilities, right now I'd guess that Wheaton, Bethel, Coe, HSU, ONU, PacLu and HSC are the other 'rivals', though now that I look at that list, maybe one NJAC pool C is more realistic!   Maybe you'd better root for some upsets!

[Frank Rossi]

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524 -- 0.523/0.527) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2, 0.446)
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502 -- 0.492/0.523) -- at Louisiana College (6-3, 0.456)

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604 -- 0.614/0.583) -- at Millikin (4-5, 0.581)
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Region), 0.512 -- 0.508/0.521) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4, 0.456)
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416 -- 0.365/0.517) -- at Wooster (5-4, 0.441)
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Region), 0.525 -- 0.552/0.472) -- vs. DePauw (9-0, 0.522)
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Region), 0.442 -- 0.412/0.503) -- at Chicago (7-2, 0.530)

East
------
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500 -- 0.493/0.515) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5, 0.394)
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497 -- 0.486/0.518) -- at New Jersey (5-4, 0.408)
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491 -- 0.486/0.501) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3, 0.588)

West
-------
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Region), 0.543 -- 0.571/0.488) -- at Cornell (0-9, 0.535)
Bethel (8-1, 0.513 -- 0.493/0.552) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5, 0.479)
Redlands (7-1, 0.503 -- 0.481/0.547) -- vs. Chapman (4-4, 0.462)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1 (6-1 Region), 0.463 -- 0.438/0.514) -- vs. Willamette (7-2, 0.511)

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Region Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- OWP/OOWP -- Final Opponent (W/L, OWP of Final Opponent)

[clandfan]

South
--------
Hampden-Sydney (8-1, 0.524 -- 0.523/0.527) -- vs. Randolph-Macon (7-2, 0.446)
Hardin-Simmons (8-1, 0.502 -- 0.492/0.523) -- at Louisiana College (6-3, 0.456)

North
-------
Wheaton (Ill.) (8-1, 0.604 -- 0.614/0.583) -- at Millikin (4-5, 0.581)
Ohio Northern (8-1 (7-1 Region), 0.512 -- 0.508/0.521) -- vs. Heidelberg (5-4, 0.456)
* Wittenberg (9-0, 0.416 -- 0.365/0.517) -- at Wooster (5-4, 0.441)
** Wabash (7-2 (7-1 Region), 0.525 -- 0.552/0.472) -- vs. DePauw (9-0, 0.522)
** Washington U. (7-2 (4-1 Region), 0.442 -- 0.412/0.503) -- at Chicago (7-2, 0.530)

East
------
Montclair St. (8-1, 0.500 -- 0.493/0.515) -- at Wm. Paterson (4-5, 0.394)
* Rowan (8-1, 0.497 -- 0.486/0.518) -- at New Jersey (5-4, 0.408)
* Cortland (8-1, 0.491 -- 0.486/0.501) -- vs. Ithaca (6-3, 0.588)

West
-------
Coe (8-1 (6-1 Region), 0.543 -- 0.571/0.488) -- at Cornell (0-9, 0.535)
Bethel (8-1, 0.513 -- 0.493/0.552) -- vs. Augsburg (4-5, 0.479)
Redlands (7-1, 0.503 -- 0.481/0.547) -- vs. Chapman (4-4, 0.462)
Pacific Lutheran (7-1 (6-1 Region), 0.463 -- 0.438/0.514) -- vs. Willamette (7-2, 0.511)

* - Team May Still Win Its Conference's Pool A Bid
** - Team Included Since In-Region Record Includes Just One Loss

After Win/Loss Records are NCAA SoS -- OWP/OOWP -- Final Opponent (W/L, OWP of Final Opponent)

Frank:  I guess I don't understand these numbers.  You very nicely break down the NJAC OOWP in the form of potential W/L and demonstrate, if in the case of a 3-way tie that Cortland will have best OOWP.  Yet in your SoS, OWP/OOWP breakdown, it would appear Cortland has worst OOWP.  What am I missing?

[clandfan]

I am assuming that because Cortland has not yet played Ithaca that Ithaca's opponents are not yet figured into the formula.

[Frank Rossi]

I am assuming that because Cortland has not yet played Ithaca that Ithaca's opponents are not yet figured into the formula.

That's part of it.  The other thing that can cause slight changes is that the OOWP numbers the NCAA uses and the OOWP numbers the NJAC uses are DIFFERENT.  The NCAA uses in-region results only.  The NJAC uses all Division 3 games, whether in- or out-of-region.  While there aren't many crossover games in these numbers, I believe it makes the numbers change slightly.

Here's the thing -- no matter what happens, the three teams are going to have virtually identical SoS numbers after next week.  That's what happens when a conference has 10 teams and forces in-league play in nine of a team's games.

[clandfan]

The College Sports Information Directors of America announced on November 3 that four NJAC football student-athletes have been named to CoSIDA Academic All-District Teams for the 2010 season. Cortland's Dan Pitcher and Montclair State's Tom Fisher were named first-team in Districts 1 and 2 respectively, while MSU's Gary Knoeppel and Kean's Tom Puorro were named second-team in District 2.


Congratulations to all. 

[Bombers798891]

That's what happens when a conference has 10 teams and forces in-league play in nine of a team's games.

Good point, although is there really a good alternative? Well, short of taking two/three NY schools from the NJAC and sticking them in the E8 in lieu of Frostburg and Salisbury so both conferences have seven or so teams all who are actually geographically related to their conference? (Strikes me as way too logical for college football.)

[Frank Rossi]

That's what happens when a conference has 10 teams and forces in-league play in nine of a team's games.

Good point, although is there really a good alternative? Well, short of taking two/three NY schools from the NJAC and sticking them in the E8 in lieu of Frostburg and Salisbury so both conferences have seven or so teams all who are actually geographically related to their conference? (Strikes me as way too logical for college football.)

Not long ago, the NJAC actually had less teams.  I think a lot of people on this board thought it was actually fine as-is.  The upshot was adding Cortland.  Brockport and Buff St. have disappointed since being added.

[Frank Rossi]

Here are the ECAC Bowl-eligible teams (declared, will not play 11 games prior to the ECAC game and can finish at or above .500 in either overall or conference record):

Cortland State 8-1 (8-1)
Maine Maritime 8-1 (6-1)
Western New England 8-2 (6-1)
Framingham State 8-2 (6-1)
Norwich 8-2 (5-2)
St. John Fisher 8-2 (3-2)
Springfield 7-2 (3-2)
Mount Ida 6-3 (5-2) *
RPI 5-3 (3-2)
Hobart 5-3 (3-2)
Curry 6-4 (4-3)
Plymouth State 6-4 (4-3)
Salve Regina 6-4 (5-2)
Utica 5-4 (0-4)
Castleton State 5-4 (5-2)

* - Cannot Host

This is by far the most eligible ECAC Bowl teams we've seen declared and still alive this late in many years.