MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[BunchTime]

Just looked at the remaining schedule for each team still in contention.  I am going to predict the order of finish for the top 4.  I am sure I will look foolish after this weeks games are played, but here it goes.  Would like to see yours Hope when you get a chance.

1.  Mac -- wins out and hosts the tourney.  Though the final game at FU could be a tricky one.
2. Greenville -- loses at IWC and wins at home vs Eureka.  Finishes in sole possession of 2nd.
3. Webster -- wins out vs Spalding and IWC. No given of course against 2 solid teams.
4. Blackburn -- goes 1-1, predicting a win at home vs Eureka and a loss at Spalding.
4.  Westminster -- goes 1-1, predicting a loss at Mac and a win at home vs Prin.

Don't know how the tiebreaker will work in the above-scenario and probably premature to analyze it until after Wednesday's games.  Plus, I'm sure my above scenario would go to hell after Wednesday anyway. 

Perhaps more interesting and entirely possible and realistic would be if Webster, Blackburn, and Westminster all split this week.  I could really see this scenario playing out, in which case 1 team would obviously not be in the tourney.

[hopefan]

Just looked at the remaining schedule for each team still in contention.  I am going to predict the order of finish for the top 4.  I am sure I will look foolish after this weeks games are played, but here it goes.  Would like to see yours Hope when you get a chance.

1.  Mac -- wins out and hosts the tourney.  Though the final game at FU could be a tricky one.
2. Greenville -- loses at IWC and wins at home vs Eureka.  Finishes in sole possession of 2nd.
3. Webster -- wins out vs Spalding and IWC. No given of course against 2 solid teams.
4. Blackburn -- goes 1-1, predicting a win at home vs Eureka and a loss at Spalding.
4.  Westminster -- goes 1-1, predicting a loss at Mac and a win at home vs Prin.

Don't know how the tiebreaker will work in the above-scenario and probably premature to analyze it until after Wednesday's games.  Plus, I'm sure my above scenario would go to hell after Wednesday anyway. 

Perhaps more interesting and entirely possible and realistic would be if Webster, Blackburn, and Westminster all split this week.  I could really see this scenario playing out, in which case 1 team would obviously not be in the tourney.

In this scenario, Westmin would get the 4th spot... Westmin and BC split, and both would lose twice to Mac, but BC also lost twice to Greenville, While Westmin split with Greenville... the fact that BC has lost twice to both the no 1 and no 2 teams is a tremendous disadvantage to them in tiebreaker situations... HOWEVER (you're not gonna like this Buncher), if BC finishes in a 2 way tie with you know who (the Gorlocks), they win the tiebreaker because they swept Webster...

[hopefan]

BaBoom... SLIAC Player of the Week AGAIN agrees with hopefan Player of the Week... Deavis Johnson..

[hopefan]

Looking forward to tonight's Fontbonne-Prin game... tough season for both programs, due in main part to missing key players for chunks of the season... I really respect both programs, both coaches.... someone will get a much needed win...   Let's hope no recurrence of the problems from the earlier matchup....

[hopefan]

I've played with scenarios, and it just gets too much to write about

Suffice to say, on Wednesday....EC MUST win at BC, Spalding MUST win Webster... otherwise, they'll finish 9-9 at best..
the only way a  9-9 team gets in would be if all games broke right AND Westmin loses to both Mac and Prin.. in that case, one team would finish 10-8, and 4 teams would be 9-9....  otherwise, assuming Westmin beats Prin, Westmin and at least one other team will finish 10-8.   Webster, BC, Westmin can still finish 10-8 even with losses on Wednesday....

[hopefan]

Congrats to Prin for picking up that elusive first conference win... they played well, they deserved it... particularly nice for 3 outgoing seniors, getting to play a lot more minutes than normal due to Biner-Hernandez ankle injury.. seniors Savoye, Hammond, Sander play a combined 63 minutes, only one turnover...  Prin came out looking to capitalize on Small starting lineup of Fontbonne, who was missing Ben Kissing (torn ACL).. ball went into big man Justin Ball every possession.. it worked, he had 14 before pooping out late in the first half... Davidson and Anumu took over from there... Fontbonne had two streaks in the second half, tying it up quickly, then later coming back from double digits, led by Greg Gentry, cutting it to 5, but that was as close as they would come...Ball finishes with 28, hard to understand why Prin didn't go to him low post like this more this season.. way too much reliance on 3 point shooting when scoring threat around the hoop... Davidson and Anumu go for 18 and 20... Jeff Ross, who I've been wondering about all year, has a nice game off the bench...  Font got the ball into Greenlee some, but it was mostly live by the 3, die by the 3, and when they went cold in the 2nd half, they were done...

[BunchTime]

4 big games tonight all having conference tourney implications.  Dare I say we should have some clarity after tonight heading into the last day of the regular season on Saturday.  Should be an exciting night of hoops.  Where you heading tonight, Hope?   

[hopefan]

Perhaps the biggest day EVER in the SLIAC... today

4 games... each one totally meaningful to both teams

2 games left for everyone, and 7 of the 8 teams are still alive for the conference tourney, the 8th, ineligible as an NCAA Provisional, playing for a USCAA tourney bid...

Westminster (9-7) at Mac (11-5)...  Westmin is a decided underdog, must split this week to be in the mix... Mac has the easier schedule of the two teams tied for first looking for a host's role....  I picture Mac winning this one

Spalding (8-8) at Webster (9-7).... If You gotta be 10-8 to make the tourney, anyone can see how critical this one is... Spalding has only beaten Prin on the road, lost to everyone else... I don't think this will change at Webster... on the other hand, the good Webster, Bad Webster routine we've grown used to should be bad Webster this game....hopefully that can change

Eureka (8-8) at Blackburn (9-7)...   What idiot said in the preseason that Blackburn would be the team to watch... I'm the Idiot, I'm the Idiot...AGAIN, If You gotta be 10-8 to make the tourney, anyone can see how critical this one is....Blackburn is a tough place to win at.. they've beaten Webster, Westmin, Spalding at home, so they're capable of beating Eureka too.. Davis/Maestranzi vs Feehan/Feehan will be fun to watch... a real tossup game...

Greenville at Iowa Wesleyan...  Greenville needs the win to stay even with Mac...tough trip to IWU***... IWU*** after starting so strongly, has lost 6 of 9, seems to be running out of gas... what looked like a sure USCAA tourney bid now is likely in question.. they should be even more desperate to win than Greenville... I'm not gonna guess on this one either

trivia question of the day... where will hopefan go to watch Basketball tonight?

[BunchTime]

My guess is that you're going to Webster vs. Spalding.  Next guess would be Eureka at Blackburn.  I don't know if I'll be able to attend as originally planned - though it's possible - because the wife has a work function and I'm on dad duty. 

[y_jack_lok]

trivia question of the day... where will hopefan go to watch Basketball tonight?

I was going to say that you'd be staying home to watch the season premier of Survivor. But you'll probably be recoding it. Not gonna guess. If not at Webster, text me with scores from wherever you are.

[hopefan]

My guess is that you're going to Webster vs. Spalding.  Next guess would be Eureka at Blackburn.  I don't know if I'll be able to attend as originally planned - though it's possible - because the wife has a work function and I'm on dad duty.

Happens to the best of us, Buncher...

Actually still thinking about it... ruled out Mac Westmin, thought hard on GC-IWU**, but just don't want to make the trip... so you've got the right two that I'm thinking about.... you may have talked me into staying here....ladies game for Webster/Spalding just as critical as men's...yep, Webster-Spalding... thanks, you saved me a trip....

[BunchTime]

About 7 minutes left in the Webster-Spalding game w/Spalding up by 17. Webster just getting punked in their own gym in a nearly must-win game. This Webster team is just not very good. No sense of urgency.  They are so soft.  Guys just out there playing ball like its a pick up game in a park on Sunday afternoon.  Embarrassing!

[BunchTime]

Webster made a little run at the end, which, in my opinion, validates my previous post. It's a real shame that it takes being down 12 with 4 min left to play with some urgency, some intensity, some fire. It was lacking all game until the last 4 min.

[hopefan]

Biggest night of the year and 4 road teams come away as winners... UNBELIEVABLE

Westmin win messes things up for a lot of teams....

See you all tomorrow

[hopefan]

I'm not going to get into a review of last night's results... too much fun looking ahead to Saturday's games..

After last night, standings look like this:
Greenville  12-5
MacMurray  11-6
Westminster  10-7
Blackburn, Webster, Eureka, IWU***, Spalding  9-8
Fontbonne 6-11
Principia 1-16

On Saturday, Mac plays at Fontbonne and Prin plays at Westminster..... let's assume Mac and Westmin get expected wins (a silly assumption, eh?)
The critical games are Eureka at Greenville, IWU*** at Webster, and Blackburn at Spalding

Here is what can happen...going with assumption that Mac and Westmin win their games against Font and Prin

Greenville is the regular season champ and tourney host if they beat Eureka...

Greenville and Mac would finish tied at 12-6 if Greenville loses to Eureka
     Greenville would win the tiebreaker and host the tourney if IWU*** and Spalding win Saturday
      Greenville would win the tiebreaker and host the tourney if IWU*** and Blackburn win on Saturday
     Mac would win the tiebreaker and host the tourney if Webster and Spalding win on Saturday
      Mac would win the tiebreaker and host the tourney if Webster and Blackburn win on Saturday

Westminster is locked into the 2-3 game, playing Mac at Greenville, or Greenville at Mac

the fourth spot...   based on tiebreakers in most cases   
     Spalding gets 4th if they beat BC
      BC gets 4th if they beat SU and GC beats EC 
     Webster gets 4th if they beat IWU*** and BC wins at SU and EC wins at GC
      EC gets 4th if they beat GC and BC wins at SU and IWU*** wins at WU


So what's most likely to happen?
Likely GC at home beats Eureka to get 1st
Mac on the road beats Fontbonne to get 2nd
Westmin at home beats Prin to get 3rd
Spalding at home beats BC to get 4th

Two major things that will change all of this...
If Westmin loses to Prin... EVERYTHING changes... all 4th place tiebreakers become 3rd and 4th place tiebreakers with Westmin included, changing everything!!!
or If hopefan screwed up figuring all this up... please, anyone interested, review and let me know any differences you find....