MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

hopefan · February 19, 2009, 08:57:39 AM

To take Darryl's table to the next level, IF we assume that the top 6 beat the bottom 3 (an assumption that HELD last night), the % for making the tourney are a simple matter - there are only 8 possible outcomes of the remaining 3 games between contenders - the % chances that the teams will make the tourney:

Westmin 100%
Fontbonne 100%
Webster 37.5%
Maryville 87.5%
Greenville 25%
Eureka 50%

Of course the underlying assumption of these % are not only no losses to non contenders, but that the outcome of the 3 games between contenders is 50-50. For instance, while Eureka is 50 50 in the table, it basicly comes down to - if they win at Westmin they are in, if not they are out.... some may not look at that proposition as a 50-50 deal....

theoneandonly · February 19, 2009, 09:29:20 AM

What a great night of men's basketball
Blackburn was 0.2 seconds away from pulling off an upset on greenville. a 5 foot jumper won it for the panthers in the last second of play to put them up 1

Maryville beats webster by only 3 points in an all together hard fought game on both sides of the floor.

Fontbonne beats Mac in a blackburn/greenville type game. Mac ends up only losing by two points and almost pulls off an upset.

Maybe these bottom teams can mix a few things up in the late part of the season! and well, I always love an upset!

theoneandonly · February 19, 2009, 09:33:54 AM

Quote from: fcnews on February 18, 2009, 11:24:52 AM
So we didn't have a single poster at the BC v. WU dame? Amazing.....

i was there what did you want to know?

Basically it boiled down to blackburn up by 1 with 5 seconds to go and the point guard dribbled downt the floor shot about a 5-7 foot jumper nailed it. Put greenville up by 1 with 0.2 seconds left, and blackburn really didnt even have time to get a shot off, somehow they did, but it didnt even come close. greenville wins. Number 23 from greenville did make some pretty rediculous hand gestures towards blackburns crazies last night after the game was over. it also seems as if the crazies were getting amped up for their plans for the maryville game next week.

hopefan · February 19, 2009, 10:25:32 AM

I think it's great that the Blackburn students were supporting not only its very successful women's team, but a men's team that has had a woeful season...... wish that kind of spirit could spread to all SLIAC campuses.

Greenville has displayed outstanding sportsmanship at any game I've seen them this season - hopefully the player's reaction was a spur of the moment reaction in the mode of 'ha - we beat you" after likely taking some 'abuse' from the crazies -

theoneandonly · February 19, 2009, 10:50:03 AM

hopefan, im pretty sure that is EXACTLY what the motion was, it wasnt that big of a deal really, i just noticed it and thought it was kind of stupid. But yes in the 5 games ive seen greenville play that was the first time ive seen anything like that, and it wasnt even that big of a deal, i just thought it should be pointed out. congrats to the panthers on their win though.

fcnews · February 19, 2009, 12:00:22 PM

HOPEFAN - Prior to the game, as he was entering the gym, one of the Fontbonne fathers told me to get on here and say he apologizes for going to far on Saturday. He's a frequent reader.

Hope - I just thought you may have missed this from the previous post.

theoneandonly · February 19, 2009, 12:11:43 PM

like you guys said before, this season is coming down to the wire. who do you guys think will bein the sliac final 4?

hopefan · February 19, 2009, 12:51:13 PM

FC, not missed at all - I just wanted to concentrate on the game report from Maryville and the immediate ramifications while they were fresh in my mind.

Both situations that I had mentioned have been brought up now, and both had remarks that hey, yes, there was a problem.... the people who addressed them know there are alot of readers in this room... so I think it is a huge show of understanding that there was an admission that things went too far.... once again, my whole thing is funnel all that energy into being positive by rooting for the kids - It's best for eveyone. Apology heartily accepted ....

fcnews · February 19, 2009, 01:16:39 PM

Another POY type performance out of Fogerty 29 pts (10-13, 9-10) and 14 rebs 40 minutes. And, we needed every last second.

I admire this Griffin group. McCoy and Storandt both have started over 100 games. McCoy has probably played 3500 minutes. Fogerty was an undersized post player when he came in. Storandt a 6'6 180 lb kid that liked to rebound. Dedication to the wait room and conditioning is very impressive. For Fogerty and Storandt to log those kind of minutes as Big Men, I haven't seen before. The SLIAC is not the Big 10, but boy it sure is physical.

These three Seniors didn't get cheated out of one minute of time. No Regrets.

hopefan · February 19, 2009, 02:47:38 PM

SOMEONE has to be interested besides me, but not getting many comments.. here are the 8 different mixes of results of games vs contenders and how the playoffs would line up, again assuming no noncontenders beat contenders:

1 Westmin beats Eureka and Font; Web beats Gville
1 Westmin 13-3
2 Webster 11-5
3 Font 11-5
4 Maryville 11-5 EC 10-6 and Gville 9-7 are out
3 way tie broken Head to Head
Web 3-1 Font 2-2 Maryville 1-3

2 Westmin beats Eureka and Font; Gville beats Web
1 Westmin 13-3
2 Font 11-5
3 Maryville 11-5
4 Gville 10-6 out Web 10-6, Eureka 10-6
2 way tie for 2nd broken head to head Font swept Mville
3 way tie for 4 broken head to head Gville 3-1 EC 2-2 Web 1-3

3 Westmin loses to Font and beats Eureka; Webster beats Gville
1 Font 12 - 4
2 Westmin 12-4
3 Webster 11-5
4 Maryville 11-5 out EC 10-6, Gville 9-7
2 way tie for fist broken head to head Font swept Westmin
2 way tie for 3rd head to head is split between Mary and Web
next tiebreaker is vs top of standings down - Web swept Font Maryville lost two to Font

4 Westmin beats Font, loses to Eureka, Webster beats Gville
1 Westmin 12-4
2 Eureka 11-5
3 Webster 11-5
4 Font 11-5
4 way tie for 2nd broken head to head EC 4-2 Webster 3-3 Font 3-3 Maryville 2-4
2 way tie between Font and web then broken Web swept Font

5 Westmin loses to Font beats eureka; Webster loses to Gville
1 Font 12-4
2 Westmin 12- 4 (swept by Font)
3 Maryville 11-5
4 Gville 10-6 out Webster 10-6 EC 10-6
3 way tie broken head to head Geenville 3-1 ec 2-2 web 1-3

6 Westmin beats Font loses to Eureka Webster loses to gville
1 Westmin 12-4
2 Font 11-5
3 Eureka 11-5
4 Mary 11-5 out Web 10-6 Gville 10-6
3 way tie broken head to head Font 3-1 EC 2-2 Mary 1-3

7 Westmin loses to font and EC, Web beats Gville
1 Font 12-4
2 EC 11-5
3/4 Mary and Westmin 11-5
out web 11-5 Gville 9-7
4 way tie broken head to head EC 4-2 Mary westmin 3-3 Web 2-4

2 way tie between Mary and westmin is dicey - they split and would have same rcord vs all opponents - leave it to the officials (per ECSID Westmin gets 3rd due to road record)

8 Westmin loses to Font and EC, Web loses to Gville
1 Font 12-4
2 EC 11-5
3 Westmin 11-5
4 Mary 11-5 out Web 10-6 gville 10-6
3 way tie head to head all 2-2 EC gets 3rd with only win vs Font
2 way tie for third per ECSID to Westmin with better road record

fcnews · February 19, 2009, 04:59:52 PM

Hopefan you do have way to much time on your hands. But, everyone now knows outcomes. If BC, MC and PC doen't get an upset.

My vote for 1st Team All Conference:
Brian Fogerty (FU)
Ryan Turk (WU)
Stanley Crawford (WC)
Chris Foresst (FU)
Michael Zasada (EC)

2nd Team:
Rod Sykes (BC) (only because of BC's won-loss)
LaPhonso Ellis (GC)
Farrid Coleman (MC)
Eric Gruenewald (MU)
Pat McCoy (FU)

HM
Ryan Sichting (MC)
Kameron Bell (EC)
Luke Niebrugge (WU)
A. J. Brooks (GC)
Justin Storandt (FU)

Just one posters opinion

fcnews · February 19, 2009, 06:09:55 PM

It was tough to leave these guys off, but there were a lot of quality players. And, we have to remember the Chad Fournie Rule:

There are games remaining that could change the list.

Baro (BC), Miller (MC), Warnecke (WC), Winters (MU), Simmons (MU), Hrdlicka (WU) and Nick Jones (WU).

Coaches vote will have: Winters and Warnecke

hopefan · February 19, 2009, 06:10:54 PM

not bad FC - I like your first team - I had coleman there at mid year, but he's had some very poor shooting nights since- still a tossup in my mind between him and Crawford. Beyond that and after Ellis and McCoy on the 2nd team it's a crap shoot - I'd have Simmons there for sure, not Grunewald, and I'm still in the dark on Sykes.

fcnews · February 19, 2009, 06:13:59 PM

Hopefan - Rod Sykes might be the most explosive player in the league next year. If BC can give this kid any support, watch out. I'm very impressed with his play.

sully309 · February 20, 2009, 04:30:18 AM

Hopefan, I think I've spotted some inaccuracies in your scenarios...

In (4), Westminster would be 12-4, but I believe you have the tie-breaker correct.

In (7), I think Westminster would wind up 3rd and Maryville 4th based on WC's better road record.

In (8), all 3 tied teams would be 2-2, unlike how you have them. From there, I think Eureka would win the tiebreaker as the only squad to have beaten Fontbonne. We then have the same situation as in (7), with Westminster winning out as long as my better road record theory holds true.