MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[fcnews]

Y_Jak and Mint - I do see both of your points of the officiating. Views excepted.

[Gville_Panther]

Did Greenville ever make a run or was it a blow out?

Fontbonne and Greenville will be a doozy.  In a perfect world both teams will be playing at 100% confidence and potential.  I think one team runs away from the other but I'll save that for later.

Juniormint---
The first half of the game was close and the lead went back and forth with Maryville pulling ahead at the end of the half. The second half started poorly for the Panthers and Maryville held a 20pt lead for most of the rest of the half. Near the end Greenville started to pull back, but the last 2 mins of the game is a little too late.
Overall, Greenville had really poor shooting throughout the game and a real lack of any rebounding.

Just want to tag along and congratulate LaPhonso Ellis for hitting his 1000th point.

[hopefan]

It's only obvious that games involving the contenders tomorrow are huge:

Fontbonne at Greenville - Greenville has lost badly in its last two games vs contenders - Westminster, then Maryville -  A loss to Fontbonne would put Greenville at 6 losses, with the only contender left on their schedule Webster - there are not many scenarios available to Greenville to get in with 6 losses, as their only sweep would be versus long shot Eureka. This is close to a must win for them  -  a win would give them a sweep over Fontbonne, something that would come in quite handy with tie breaking procedures.  Virtually a must win for Greenville from their perspective.
From Fontbonne's perspective, this is not a must win, but it sure would make things easier...  A win here virtually clinches a tourney spot, with only Westmin remaining on their schedule as a contender.  A loss would put them under tremendous pressure to beat Westmin, as they would have been swept by Greenville, Webster and Westmin if they lose on the last night.

What to look for  -  let's hope Coach McKinney can pick these guys up after the devastating loss to Webster - this team could still come in as the host to the playoffs  -  but if they play as poorly as they did vs Webster, they could unbelievably be in a position to miss out on the tourney. (Chad Fournie, get that uniform back on!!) Greenville appears down and out, but that's exactly the way it looked for Webster on Wednesday.  Coach Barber is another veteran coach who is capable of bringing his team  back right when it would appear they are gone.  KEY - Cochrane has to find his game, get the ball to Ellis and Brooks.....

[hopefan]

Maryville at Eureka - Eureka continues its quest for an unbelievable turnaround drive to the conference tourney.  Maryville is coming off a very good win vs Greenville, but they looked bad vs Fontbonne.   QUESTION - Matt Baker has very poor game vs Fontbonne, doesn't play vs Greenville?? Hurt, Sick, or numbers victim?   The trouble is, the numbers are getting VERY SKINNY over at Maryville - some people are playing, even starting, that were getting NO time earlier in the season.  Eureka has won four in a row and are floating - unless Simmons and dulle beat them up inside, and Maryville doesn't shoot 30 3 pointers, I think Eureka has a great chance to win this game, setting up a critical matchup with Westmin......

[hopefan]

The other two contenders also play Saturday, but against non contenders -  Westmin should beat Mac, Webster should handle BC......

[sully309]

The Red Devils are easily playing their best ball of the season right now.  They had a 4 game winning streak earlier, but I still saw some things I didn't like, which is why I was so pessimistic going into the game against Westminster, which EC lost. Then, in the loss to Greenville, the Panthers looked like the best team in the league. I haven't seen Greenville's last 2 games, but apparently that's not the case. I still like Greenville's chances Saturday against Fontbonne though.

Anyway, I say that about Eureka because EC had held its last 3 opponents below 60 points. Yes, I know the last 2 have been Prin and Blackburn, but the D has been there. The Beavers just couldn't hit anything Wednesday at Eureka. The Red Devils were fortunate Baro missed some shots he normally makes, but Sykes was D'ed up very well. He still finished with 12 and 13, but the majority of those stats seemed to come late in the game.

Eureka held BC to 16% in the 1st half and led 32-13. The lead got as big as 31 in the second half. This was surprising to me, given Blackburn's recent win over Mac and the tough game BC gave Eureka in Carlinville. It was difficult to find someone in a white uniform that did not play well. Maybe we've finally solved our problems on our home court? Speaking of home courts, Blackburn still has GC and MU at home...

This game on Saturday against Maryville should be a great matchup. I suppose those people like me that think more teams should be in the tournament should treat this like a tournament game, since it almost is. But it isn't. Neither team is out of the running with a loss. 3-point shooting is going to be a huge factor, but Eureka can't get out-rebounded by 14 again like they were last time.

[Darryl Nester]

I've been working on a program I wrote a couple of years ago to analyze scenarios for the HCAC standings, trying to extend it so that it could do a similar analysis for (almost) any other D3 conference.  I posted results to the CCIW board yesterday, and the MIAA this morning, and at the suggestion of hopefan, just ran the numbers for the tight race in the SLIAC.

The first table below summarizes the current standings and remaining games.  The second table lists--as a percentage of all possible outcomes for the remaining games--the final seeding for each team.  These are not probabilities (unless you believe that each team has an equal likelihood of winning each game).

I assumed in making this table that your conference's tie-breaking procedure was the same as those of the HCAC (I did not confirm this).

Team	Overall	Home	Away	Remaining Games
Westminster (Mo.)	9-3	4-1	5-2	vs. MacMur, vs. Princ, vs. EC, @ FC
Fontbonne	9-4	4-3	5-1	@ GC, @ MacMur, vs. Westmi
Maryville (Mo.)	8-4	6-1	2-3	@ EC, vs. Webst, @ MacMur, @ Blkbur
Webster	8-4	3-2	5-2	vs. Blkbur, @ Maryvl, vs. GC, vs. Princ
Greenville	8-5	4-3	4-2	vs. FC, @ Blkbur, @ Webst
Eureka	8-5	3-3	5-2	vs. Maryvl, @ Westmi, vs. MacMur
MacMurray	4-8	2-4	2-4	@ Westmi, vs. FC, vs. Maryvl, @ EC
Blackburn	2-10	2-4	0-6	@ Webst, vs. GC, @ Princ, vs. Maryvl
Principia	0-13	0-7	0-6	@ Westmi, vs. Blkbur, @ Webst

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6	#7	#8	#9
Westminster	41.93%	24.15%	18.51%	9.66%	4.35%	1.40%	--	--	--
FC	26.36%	21.34%	19.24%	14.93%	11.94%	6.20%	--	--	--
Webster	16.12%	19.96%	17.19%	15.84%	13.88%	16.91%	0.10%	--	--
Maryville	7.00%	16.58%	19.63%	23.58%	18.69%	14.04%	0.48%	--	--
EC	5.81%	9.87%	11.98%	15.35%	23.18%	32.50%	1.31%	--	--
GC	2.78%	8.10%	13.46%	20.64%	27.86%	27.17%	--	--	--
MacMurray	--	--	--	--	0.10%	1.79%	89.64%	8.47%	--
Blackburn	--	--	--	--	--	--	8.47%	82.30%	9.23%
Principia	--	--	--	--	--	--	--	9.23%	90.77%

[sully309]

As for the conference tourney site discussion, I've always wondered what kind of a crowd Eureka would draw for one of those. My guess is we'd fill the place as long as EC was playing. Eureka's game with Westminster earlier this year almost filled it and I expect the same type of crowd Saturday. I would guess EC probably has the highest percentage of students that show up for games. We're the only show in town in a town that loves basketball.

I know everyone in the Lou would belly-ache over such a scenario, but we could easily out-draw the disappointing crowd that was at the EC/Fontbonne championship game at Webster 2 years ago.

[hopefan]

Anyone from St Louis who travelled up to Eureka would love the basketball atmosphere....  of course Eureka's problem for hosting is location, being at one geographical end of the conference.   Hopefan not only enjoyed the basketball when he was there, but also found some great (and profitable) nighttime entertainment nearby - always a selling point!!!!

[hopefan]

I asked Darryl to work out that scheme for us - when I studied it, It didn't make sense to me at first until I realized he is using tiebreaker assumptions.  That's why, for instance, Webster and Maryville have different potential outcomes even though they both have the same record and number of games left.  Darryl's program shows that Webster is in a better tiebreaker situation than Maryville, and that makes sense because one of Webster's losses was to Mac - therefore, Webster has a BETTER record against contending schools when in a tie  situation.   What Darryl doesn't have, which would make the table more realistic, is the allowance for "almost" "sure" wins - Giving contending teams an automatic win vs the 3 noncontending teams - it would change the table - it would be interestiing to see how.....  Thanks so much for sharing with us Darryl   +1 to you.

[Darryl Nester]

It is not quite easier said than done ... but here are the results if all games vs. the bottom 3 are assumed to go in favor of the top 6:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6
Westminster	54.69%	17.97%	17.97%	8.59%	0.78%	--
Fontbonne	20.31%	15.62%	25.00%	17.19%	13.28%	8.59%
Webster	17.19%	31.25%	17.19%	12.50%	10.94%	10.94%
Maryville	6.25%	21.09%	17.97%	33.59%	16.41%	4.69%
Eureka	1.56%	10.94%	9.38%	6.25%	25.78%	46.09%
Greenville	--	3.12%	12.50%	21.88%	32.81%	29.69%

[hopefan]

danged programers can do ANYTHING!!!!!!  Thanks again Darryl....

[JAdaPrince]

It is not quite easier said than done ... but here are the results if all games vs. the bottom 3 are assumed to go in favor of the top 6:

Team	#1	#2	#3	#4	#5	#6
Westminster	54.69%	17.97%	17.97%	8.59%	0.78%	--
Fontbonne	20.31%	15.62%	25.00%	17.19%	13.28%	8.59%
Webster	17.19%	31.25%	17.19%	12.50%	10.94%	10.94%
Maryville	6.25%	21.09%	17.97%	33.59%	16.41%	4.69%
Eureka	1.56%	10.94%	9.38%	6.25%	25.78%	46.09%
Greenville	--	3.12%	12.50%	21.88%	32.81%	29.69%

So if I am following this correctly ... its works out to the tournament being hosted in Fulton with Westminster as the No.1, Webster No. 2, Fontbonne No.3 and Maryville No. 4 ...

Is that a safe assumption by simply looking at the numbers.

[hopefan]

that's what the table is saying  ---   however, going through the pemutations, I can't for the life of me figure out the single combination that would put Westmin in 5th, and out.....   I see how there can be a 5 way tie for first with 5 losses, but can't figure out how Westmin would be eliminated it the tie breaker  (unless it's alphabetical )

[y_jack_lok]

I think I must be jealous that my mind is incapable of processinig all these possible scenarios. It's a great analytical exercise, but other than that I don't much see the point. To me it doesn't make sense to be thinking we have to win this game and that game to get in the tournament and if we do that then it's o.k. if we lose this other game, because we still make the tourney. I hope not too many coaches think this way as they should always be preparing to win every game. But for those of you who enjoy it, have at it. It just makes my brain hurt to try to process it all when I read it.