MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[hopefan]

only two games listed today in the whole world of D3hoops.... and the SLIAC has one of them, with Westminster hosting Cornell (Iowa) .... Cornell has improved significantly over last year when they were 3-22 (lo and behold, one of those 3 wins was against, gulp, Westminster)..Cornell has beaten St Norb's and has a couple of close losses... this should be a pretty good game, but I'm going to see so many conference games requiring travel starting in January, i gotta take a bye on going over to Fulton tonight....  good luck to coach Mitch and the Jays...

The schedule starts up in ernest next Wednesday.. I'll do some writeups of those games soon... January is gonna be some fun for SLIAC fans.... Let's hope the weather holds.....we in the breadbasket of the SLIAC geography have been truly lucky with clear roads.

[hopefan]

one conference game on Wednesday, Jan 2, and 4 on Saturday Jan 5...   each are absolutely critical to the teams involved, and each should give us a solid hint as to how the SLIAC race may shape up

Jan 2   Westmin at Fontbonne....  until Fontbonne went down to Florida and won 2 games, this matchup didn't generate much interest to me... but now I wonder, With Fontbonne having played a tremendously difficult non conference schedule, could their 2-7 non conf record be totally misleading?  Could the Griffs be competitive with the upper echelon of SLIAC hoops?  These questions will get answered on Wednesday night...  My thoughts... no, at least not on Wednesday night..  I think the Westminster pressure defense may overwhelm the turnover prone Griffs, at least enough to generate a double digit win for Westmin... but with that result will come another night of experience for the young Griffs, and they will get better every night...lots of young talent

Jan 5  Spalding at Westmin....   is Spalding as good as their 40 point win over Eureka might indicate?...  I hope not, or the conference race will be for 2nd place, and a trip to Louisville for the conference tourney will be mandated (what a delightfull thought... NOT... but I just can't convince ANYONE that a neutral site tourney is the thing to do  ).. I gotta say that I am heavily rooting for a Westmin win here, not to avoid the Louisville tourney, but to indicate that a 4 or 5 team race for the conference title is real....  If Spalding romps, it's a strong indication that everyone else is playing for the caddie championship...  also note that the women's game will make for a great doubleheader.. 2 of the 3 best women's teams in the conference....

Blackburn at Prin...  two winless teams...  a very meaningful game for the players on these squads... if it weren't for the Spalding -Westmin matchup, I'd go see Prin and BC, cause these kids have a lot on the line in this one.....who wants it more... My bet is Prin, unless Coach Baribeau can kick his kids hard enough to get them started....    BUT. if frosh guard Larry Patterson is not available for Prin, (and he missed the Jan 3 game vs Ill College), I gotta go with BC

Greenville at Mac...  Mac has played very well against a super schedule..  with a sub 500 record to show for it.. but now is what they've been waiting for.... Taking that experience against solid competition and using it to their advantage against SLIAC competition (The Coach Bunch school of thought)... I'm very anxious to see how Dylan Burton is too.....Greenville needs to show they can compete against the upper half of the conference... all the new faces have to come together quickly, and a LEADER has to emerge... the intensity will rise to a higher level than what Gville has seen....  I'm hoping the Webster game provided valuable lessons....As above, I'd love to see Greenville get a win, or be very competitive in this game, to show that they should be considered a potential top 4 team.  BUT.. Mac by 10

Finally, Webster at Eureka...  I know what I expect from Eureka... With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again?  Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected...  AND.. this is a CRITICAL game for Eureka.. yes there are legitimate reasons for the slaughter at Spalding, but the HOME loss to Mac could be more damaging.. Eureka does NOT want to lose at home again and begin conference 0-3.. that is a deep hole to dig out of.... hopefan thinks Eureka gets the win, close....

[hopefan]

FYI for the D3 educated SLIAC fans

Massey ratings out of 411 D3 schools

Westminster  122  as of yesterday, now up to 95 today with win over Coe
Spalding     191
Webster 204
MacMurray   224
Greenville    290
Eureka    321
Fontbonne   363
Blackburn   405
Principia   406

Ratings as off today and change from ratings above..
Westminster  80     favorable 42 spots
Spalding   114    favorable 77 spots
Webster 196         favorable 8 spots
Mac   201       favorable 23 spots
Greenville  256    favorable 34 spots
Eureka   272    Favorable 49 spots
Fontbonne  297     Favorable  66 spots
Blackburn  401    Favorable 4 spots
Principia   408    Unfavorable 2 spots

VERY Positive Movement!!!

[hopefan]

Finally... Some people have liked my Hopefan standings in the past...

I'm going to base this on a 7 team horserace... with only Blackburn and Prin out of it

Standings based on 3 principles..
Teams that are contenders should not lose at Home  if they do, it is a -1
Teams that are contenders would hope to beat other contenders on the road... if they do, it is a +1
Teams that are contenders should never lose to Blaackburn or Prin... if they do, it's a -1
When contenders win at home, lose on the road, or beat PRin and BC anywhere, it's = 0
Do what you are supposed to, you'll finish 10-6, with no guarantees... it's the teams that win that 1 extra game on the road, and defend home, that will finish ahead.....

Hopefan standings based on above
Webster +1   (won at Greenville)
Mac +1  (won at Eureka)
Westmin  0
Fontbonne 0
Spalding 0
Greenville  -1 (lost at home vs Webster)
Eureka  -1  (lost at home vs Mac)

[y_jack_lok]

 
Per hopefan: " With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again? Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected..."

The loss to Sewanee was the first game of the season. Maybe it should have been a win. But Sewanee is 5-2 and also beat MacMurray by almost the same margin. The Rust and Elmhurst losses were on the road. Webster beat Rust at home and might have won the away game in regulation but for a Rust miracle buzzer beater to tie it, then got dominated in the OT. The Elmhurst loss, when viewed in comparison to Westminster's win at Elmhurst, is the one that raises the question "Will the real Webster please stand up?"

[GC Panther 01]

Have a friend who officiated the game in Fulton today.  said Westminster won 80-68.

[hopefan]

Thanks GC.. Westmin shot better from the field, but the real difference was at the foul line where Westmin went 19 for 26 compared to Cornell's 10-13   ....  James and Prophet lead the scoring with 16 apiece...Westmin at 7-2 non conference

[hopefan]

Per hopefan: " With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again? Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected..."

The loss to Sewanee was the first game of the season. Maybe it should have been a win. But Sewanee is 5-2 and also beat MacMurray by almost the same margin. The Rust and Elmhurst losses were on the road. Webster beat Rust at home and might have won the away game in regulation but for a Rust miracle buzzer beater to tie it, then got dominated in the OT. The Elmhurst loss, when viewed in comparison to Westminster's win at Elmhurst, is the one that raises the question "Will the real Webster please stand up?"

My rebuttal has to be that Webster has disappointed me overall.. as I stated, the 3 games were games where I expected wins..  Webster didn't get them... if i were looking at things as objectively as I can, I find far more items on the disappointed side of the ledger than on the pleased.  I look at Webster as the leader of the SLIAC push for respectability, and they haven't lived up to it this year...I'm not saying beat the Wash U's the Lindenwoods, but I am saying beat the d3's that fall ouside of the powerhouse catagory....positives are the play in the middle of a very undersized Aaron Griffin, a kid who didn't even play last year... and the consistent play off the bench of Danny Zehner...  otherwise,......  I guess my question is, of Spalding, Mac, Eureka, and Westmin, who is the team or teams that Webster can edge out for a playoff spot..  unless numerous inconsistancies are corrected, I just can't figure out an answer to that question when I comparison shop...  But then, as I said before, Coach CONSISTANTLY surprises me...

Anyway, you know me.. I'll only be completely satisfied with a 6 or 7 way tie necessitating multiple additional playoff games...!!! (also a tie for 8th and 9th with Prin and BC splitting their 2 games

[y_jack_lok]

Per hopefan: " With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again? Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected..."

The loss to Sewanee was the first game of the season. Maybe it should have been a win. But Sewanee is 5-2 and also beat MacMurray by almost the same margin. The Rust and Elmhurst losses were on the road. Webster beat Rust at home and might have won the away game in regulation but for a Rust miracle buzzer beater to tie it, then got dominated in the OT. The Elmhurst loss, when viewed in comparison to Westminster's win at Elmhurst, is the one that raises the question "Will the real Webster please stand up?"

My rebuttal has to be that Webster has disappointed me overall.. as I stated, the 3 games were games where I expected wins..  Webster didn't get them... if i were looking at things as objectively as I can, I find far more items on the disappointed side of the ledger than on the pleased.  I look at Webster as the leader of the SLIAC push for respectability, and they haven't lived up to it this year...I'm not saying beat the Wash U's the Lindenwoods, but I am saying beat the d3's that fall ouside of the powerhouse catagory....positives are the play in the middle of a very undersized Aaron Griffin, a kid who didn't even play last year... and the consistent play off the bench of Danny Zehner...  otherwise,......  I guess my question is, of Spalding, Mac, Eureka, and Westmin, who is the team or teams that Webster can edge out for a playoff spot..  unless numerous inconsistancies are corrected, I just can't figure out an answer to that question when I comparison shop...  But then, as I said before, Coach CONSISTANTLY surprises me...

Anyway, you know me.. I'll only be completely satisfied with a 6 or 7 way tie necessitating multiple additional playoff games...!!! (also a tie for 8th and 9th with Prin and BC splitting their 2 games

So if I recall correctly, you did some kind of pre-season strength of non-conference schedule analysis. How have each of the teams performed so far in relation to that analysis?

[hopefan]

   hmmm give me tonite to check that out....   but I do remember that Fontbonne was no 1, and that Webster was critiqued for being a little less than normal...

Found it...


Schedule rating   
1) Fontbonne      Wash U, Augie, Rose Hulman, Central, Edgewood  AND a trip to Daytona vs good D3 comp
2) Westminster    D2 Mo S&T, Wheaton, Elmhurst, Edgewood Rhodes and Coe
3) Spalding   Transy, Anderson, T More, D1 Gardner Webb, 26-8 Indiana SE, and a trip East vs good d3
4) MacMurray  Augie, Wash U, McKendree, Platteville, Rust and Sewanee at Webster
5) Webster    Rust and Sewanee at Webster, Wash U, Elmhurst, Lindenwood St Chas
6) Blackburn   Rhodes, Dubuque, Aurora
7) Eureka    Central, D1's SIUE, Texas PanAm
8) Principia     McKendree
9) Greenville   Rhodes, Mo Bap

Now that we know how some of these teams have performed, there would likely be some changes

I'd move Spalding and Mac up to 1-2, Font 3, Westmin 4, Webster 5, 6-9 the same

[Gregory Sager]

With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again?  Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected...

I disagree with this statement. Unless we're talking about the SLIAC's top dog and the CCIW's bottom-dweller, a SLIAC team should not be expected to beat a CCIW team on the CCIW team's home floor. And we're not talking about the SLIAC"s best team and the CCIW's worst in this instance. Although Webster is coming off of a SLIAC title, the Gorloks were picked to finish fifth in the 2012-13 preseason poll. Elmhurst, which is coming off of a 12-13 season that nearly matches Webster's 13-13 performance in 2011-12, in spite of the fact that the Bluejays finished in a fifth-place tie in the CCIW last year, was picked to finish sixth in the CCIW this season.

Webster should not have been expected to beat Elmhurst in Faganel Hall on December 8 ... and Westminster's win there three days previous should've been viewed beforehand as probably close to a push, which is reflected in the eventual four-point margin.

[hopefan]

With Webster, the question is, has Coach Bunch totally fooled me again?  Is this team going to be the one that crushed Greenville on the road sending notice that they are a top 4 threat, or the one that lost to Rust, Elmhurst, Sewannee... 3 games where wins should have been expected...

I disagree with this statement. Unless we're talking about the SLIAC's top dog and the CCIW's bottom-dweller, a SLIAC team should not be expected to beat a CCIW team on the CCIW team's home floor. And we're not talking about the SLIAC"s best team and the CCIW's worst in this instance. Although Webster is coming off of a SLIAC title, the Gorloks were picked to finish fifth in the 2012-13 preseason poll. Elmhurst, which is coming off of a 12-13 season that nearly matches Webster's 13-13 performance in 2011-12, in spite of the fact that the Bluejays finished in a fifth-place tie in the CCIW last year, was picked to finish sixth in the CCIW this season.

Webster should not have been expected to beat Elmhurst in Faganel Hall on December 8 ... and Westminster's win there three days previous should've been viewed beforehand as probably close to a push, which is reflected in the eventual four-point margin.

One thing that my buddies from the CCIW fail to recognize is that in a given year, things like this CAN change.... now I haven't seen Elmhurst play, but going into that game, Elmhurst had lost 5 games to 5 other D3 teams, none of them highly rated nationally in fact I don't know that any were rated at all nationally, and won none.  One of those squads was Westminster...   Webster had a couple of pretty decent wins going in...   YES, I expected Webster to win that game, knowing the capabilities of the individuals on that team... to me, they must not have played up to those capabilities losing to an 0-5 Elmhurst team, whether Elmhurst is a CCIW team or a Southern Colleges of the Regional Andes Mountains team (you know, the SCRAM conference)....and your mention of preseason expectations as a determinant of expectations after each team had played 5 games shouldn't hold much weight.....the performance in those 5 games is what counts......yes, this was one of those games that given what I see as a rise in the quality of the SLIAC, and a down year in the CCIW, I expect to win....

[Gregory Sager]

I just don't agree with you about that. Elmhurst has had an undistinguished record thus far, that's true. I've seen the Bluejays, and they are not very good at all by CCIW standards. But you're underestimating the gap between the two leagues. This year the CCIW owns an 8-1 edge over the SLIAC, with three of those eight wins coming from a Millikin team that consists almost exclusively of freshmen. In the four previous seasons, it's been CCIW 25, SLIAC 5.

Elmhurst was supposed to beat Webster at Faganel Hall on the eighth of December.

[hopefan]

Greg, you and I are two of a kind.. I love it.. come on.. Millikin's 3 wins were against our bottom 3 teams.. Prin, Blackburn, and Fontbonne!!!  If those 3 games are against any of the top 4 Sliac teams (EC, Westmin, Splalding, or Mac) or Webster, there is slim chance that Millikin wins those games...   and we already discussed that my opinion is that Eureka at full strength this year would have played with, and 50-50 beaten North Park  (Eureka played that game with several guys who had hardly EVER played)...  I view the comparison... this year... between CCIW and SLIAC in terms of the MAc -Augie.. a top 4 CCIW team was 7-10 points better than a top 4 SLIAC team   but ....a top 4 SLIAC THIS YEAR, vs a 2nd 4 CCIW... I'll go with the top 4 (or 5) SLIAC team......

OK OK a little SLIAC colored vision (note I'm not mentioning the Wheaton - Westmin lopsided score ), but no worse than the CCIW supporters....

[hopefan]

Incidentally, Spalding clobbers Rivier, a small NE D3 school, down in Florida... let's hope they get a more worthwhile game in their next matchup....