MBB: St. Louis Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[WUPHF]

I cannot speak for Jay Murry, but I am generally, boldly optimistic...

[jaybird44]

Generally, I agree Y-Jack...but keep in mind as far as the SLIAC defensive stats go, they are significantly inflated when you are forced to give up well over 100 points per game with Greenville skewing the metrics with its version of The System.

How does Webster's defense fare in points per game, when you toss out the Greenville games?  I'd like to take a look at that, to see if the Gorloks are better matchups to NWU than what first meets the eyes on the stat sheets.

As an aside, I like watching Greenville play.  Variety is the spice of life, and the Panthers bring a lot of spice to the game of basketball.

[jaybird44]

Y-Jack, let's you and I lobby for an exhibition game to be played between Greenville and NWU during NCAA Championship Week in Atlanta.  The System vs. The Terminators.

[y_jack_lok]

How does Webster's defense fare in points per game, when you toss out the Greenville games?  I'd like to take a look at that, to see if the Gorloks are better matchups to NWU than what first meets the eyes on the stat sheets.

That computes to 72.9 ppg.

[WUPHF]

I only watched Greenville three times (twice in person), but in those games, they were not the exhibition worthy team they were a season ago.

Webster is the second best team in the league in terms of three-point defense, but dang, Nebraska Wesleyan shoots a lot from the perimeter.  The SLIAC team has 6 teams that are shooting far less than 500 three point attempts for the season.

By the way, a SLIAC team almost defeated a Prairie Wolves team a few seasons go.

Nebraska Wesleyan edged Westminster 104-103 behind the play of then freshmen Hiller, Shimonitz, Dirks, et al.

[y_jack_lok]

Webster 179 @ NWU 7 

NWU is a 20 point favorite at home, and that should be about right.  With or without Schimonitz, NWU  should control this game with relative ease.  Despite riding a 12 game win streak and 16-2 conference record,  the numbers say the Gorlocks are a slightly below average team by Adjusted Efficiency Margin.  The eye test says that Webster is a balanced team, physically tough, but will still struggle to match up defensively with the freakish balanced efficiency of the Wolves, especially on their home court.   I really think NWU cruises into an interesting second round game vs. Wash U.

This post is from the American Rivers Conference board in the West region.

[GU1999]

Unfortunately, history past (SLIAC being 0-23 in NCAAs) and present (Webster 1-6 in the non-con)* makes this a sound position to take.  I truly hope we have a Northwestern over St Thomas situation here, but I don't think we do.  It would take the absolute best version of the Gorloks combined with Schimonitz not playing for this to be interesting in the final minutes.

*Webster's non SLIAC games:

L by 22 to Il College (6-20 Massey 274)
L to MOBAP by 2.  (15-14 in NAIA)
L by 7 to Piedmont (14-14 Massey 224)
W by 18 over Maryville - TN (9-18 Massey 278)
L by 5 to Manchester (8-18 Massey 250)
L by 7 to Hanover (17-9 Massey 93)
L by 22 to WashU (20-5 Massey 21)

For comparison sake NWU is Massey #7.  I'd expect something similar to the WashU game.  Webster played a great first half and was just overwhelmed (suffocated) in the second. 

My line is NWU -16.5

The SLIAC will wish a fond farewell to Clay, Johnson, Tankins, Hopp, and Ferrell. 

[Gregory Sager]

Unfortunately, history past (SLIAC being 0-23 in NCAAs) and present (Webster 1-6 in the non-con)* makes this a sound position to take.  I truly hope we have a Northwestern over St Thomas situation here, but I don't think we do.  It would take the absolute best version of the Gorloks combined with Schimonitz not playing for this to be interesting in the final minutes.

*Webster's non SLIAC games:

L by 22 to Il College (6-20 Massey 274)
L to MOBAP by 2.  (15-14 in NAIA)
L by 7 to Piedmont (14-14 Massey 224)
W by 18 over Maryville - TN (9-18 Massey 278)
L by 5 to Manchester (8-18 Massey 250)
L by 7 to Hanover (17-9 Massey 93)
L by 22 to WashU (20-5 Massey 21)

For comparison sake NWU is Massey #7.  I'd expect something similar to the WashU game.  Webster played a great first half and was just overwhelmed (suffocated) in the second. 

My line is NWU -16.5

The SLIAC will with a fond farewell to Clay, Johnson, Tankins, Hopp, and Ferrell.

This.

I will root for the SLIAC team today, as I always do. I root for big underdogs unless my own team is involved, because that's how I roll, and the SLIAC as a whole is a pack of big underdogs.

But I just don't see this upset happening, Schimonitz or no Schimonitz. I've got the Prairie Wolves winning by twenty points. I hope that I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.

[y_jack_lok]

^^^ I would not place as much emphasis on the early season results. Several starters are different for Webster now and general player utilization is different from what it was in November/December. Having said that, i don't disagree with your general handicapping of the game.

[WUPHF]

But I just don't see this upset happening, Schimonitz or no Schimonitz. I've got the Prairie Wolves winning by twenty points. I hope that I'm wrong, but that's how I see it.

This is the consensus opinion.

Incidentally, you were the only one that suggested that the Shimonitz injury was potentially a factor.

[hopefan]

Having missed the last 2 weeks of the regular season, as well as the conference semis, I didn't feel it was my place to take part in prior conversation..

But with a big chuckle , I will make this bold prediction.... as far as point spread goes, the Webster men will do better vs Nebraska Wesleyan than the Webster women will do against Depauw.... again, 

[WUPHF]

Nebraska Weslyan... [checks notes ] trails Webster, 37-29.

[Gregory Sager]

... and no Schimonitz for NWU, which is definitely a plus for the Gorloks.

[hopefan]

... and no Schimonitz for NWU, which is definitely a plus for the Gorloks.

However, I would point out Webster is missing Starter Jordan Clay, a 10 ppg, 7 rpg player...

[Gregory Sager]

True, but he's no Nate Schimonitz.

Schimonitz averages over 26 ppg and has a better than 2:1 a:to ratio. He's a surefire d3hoops.com first-teamer this season.