MBB: Wisconsin Intercollegiate Athletic Conference

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Just about every aspect of the game is mental, but a lot of it is execution.  Does a good coach get a technical foul late in a game that is close?  I like UWW, I think they are capable of good things.   However, just saying, "oh they will be there at the end" or making justifications on why they lose games in which they have double digit leads is boggling to me...this does nothing to help, it just prepetuates the condition.  This has happened 3 times at home and almost 4(UWRF).  The 3 guard line-up was knew, it  could be effective at times, but not for 75% of the game.

[Pioneer Hoops Fan]

The way that Platteville is shooting free throws this season, a technical might not be a bad idea.  It stops the clock, saves a personal foul on a player.  Charlie only hit 1 of 2, then Whitewater scored next.  You're frustrated...you're a fan, you're supposed to be frustrated.  I could imagine that most of the guys/gals on this board are or have been frustrated at one time or another. 

I know that belief or whatever that players win games and coaches lose games.  I'm sure a great coach was the first to say that.  I happen to believe in that to a degree, because some of the responisiblity has to fall on the guys, especially veteran guys to compose his fellow teammates on the floor.  Players play the game, not the coaches.

I also think that as bad as it is or seems, it could always be worse.

[ItIsWhatItIs]

Very true it could be worse, I am hoping it does get to that before remedies are sought.  I too think they will be dangerous in the tournament because they are talented, but why not want more from your team than a "put all your eggs in the tournament basket" approach...especially when the tournament has not been a prosperous event for them.   I will hold out hope that things will change, but make no mistakes about it, it must start at the top.

[martin]

Over on the CCIW board, there was a discussion of assist to turnover ratio.  Most CCIW teams are doing poorly in that statistic.  What emerged in that discussion is the outstanding performance of UWSP in that area.  Right now, UWSP has a 1.79 assist/turnover ratio.  Note: In their only loss to D2 NMU, UWSP had 18 assists and 10 turnovers so eliminating that game would not change this stat.

Comparing to others:
The other 8 WIAC teams A/T has a mean of 1.03875 and a standard deviation (SD) of .10588.  Second after UWSP is Oshkosh at 1.13.  UWSP's ratio is 7 SD's above the mean of the other 8 WIAC teams.  It is not because of inflated assist totals.  The Pointers are not turning the ball over.  They are #1 in the country in that category - 9.3 from the last NCAA stat (and now lower).  That is a full turnover ahead of the second best team, Muskingum.  The spread from #2 to #50 is 3.6.  UWSP is a full turnover a game ahead of #2.  And they are doing this against a very tough schedule - according to Massey, #3 of 404 (#6 without using MOV).

ASSIST/TURNOVER RATIO
# Team                  G  Asst   Avg Turn   Avg  Ratio
-------------------------------------------------------
1.UW-Stevens Point.... 15   238  15.9  133   8.9   1.79
2.UW-Oshkosh.......... 15   216  14.4  191  12.7   1.13
3.UW-Eau Claire....... 14   211  15.1  187  13.4   1.13
4.UW-Whitewater....... 14   218  15.6  196  14.0   1.11
5.UW-Superior......... 13   205  15.8  186  14.3   1.10
6.UW-La Crosse........ 14   208  14.9  194  13.9   1.07
7.UW-River Falls...... 15   208  13.9  209  13.9   1.00
8.UW-Stout............ 15   224  14.9  230  15.3   0.97
9.UW-Platteville...... 13   159  12.2  200  15.4   0.80

The NCAA does not publish this stat but conferences do.  I got the numbers from 7 conferences with 63 teams - a good sample.  The mean A/T ratio for those teams is .9717 with a SD of .2365.  So a 95% confidence interval would be (1.4447, .4987).  UWSP is 3 SD's above the sample mean.  Only two other teams are more than 2 SD's above the sample mean - and just barely, Washington at 1.54 and Wooster at 1.46.

To be more than one SD above the mean (and only 16% of teams should be) would be an A/T ratio of 1.2.  In the sample, only 9 of the 63 teams were at this level.  I think you could say that an A/T ratio above 1.2 would be very good.  Above 1.44 would be outstanding.  UWSP is off the charts.

Also, no point in fouling the Pointers - they are #1 in free throw percentage at 83.8%.  Wheaton (MA) is #2 at 79.9. 

UWSP is a talented team playing very sound basketball.  They will be tough to beat.

[Pioneer Hoops Fan]

Itiswhatitis,  I appreciate your passion for your warhawks.  I'm new to the board so for me it is nice to chime in once in a while.  I'm sure that Coach Miller is working on fixing his W-L record, until he finds something that works, all you can do it wait.

Martin
So out of all those numbers where does the WIAC rank nationally???  Maybe it's in there, but too many words and numbers mixed together and I'm now cross eyed!

[martin]

Pioneerhoops -

I suspect that the WIAC is at least above average nationally (1.04 vs .97 from my sample).  The NCAA does not publish this stat by team let alone any stats by conference.  You have to do the work yourself.  I just began digging because UWSP's number seemed to be such an outlier.  Above 1.2 is real good.  They are 1.8 - and the next best team I could find is 1.54.  It is a good indication of why they are winning -  they do not turn the ball over while making the extra pass.

[Greek Tragedy]

Titansrus,

I've sent you an email regarding the fantasy league, and also a message or two.  Not sure if you're interested or don't check your email...

back to basketball...

[UWPSUPERFAN77]

MR Downtown: Very painful to remind me of the UWW playoff win of 2 years ago. We, my beloved Pioneers had buried them a week earlier at home. The Students and pep Band were huffing and puffing trash at the Hawks. I told them to cool it, based on the talent that they had and that we may be facing them shortly in the Playoffs. I, unfortunately was a prophet on this one. Also, we should have gotten a playoff bid as an at large, making this even more painful. We beat UWSP that year, who won the Championship. God Bless!

[bulk19]

UWPSuperfan77 and the rest of the Pioneer backers here:

I see you guys are going all out to defeat UWEC when the Blugolds come to town on Jan. 27, as Pat notes on the front of the D3 site here, posting the UWP press release about tickets being sold out for the Bo Ryan Court dedication ceremony. 

Classy move on Ryan's part to bring his Badgers team with him as they head to Iowa City for their game the next day... Wonder if I've got an extra Blugold jersey laying around here for Tucker to wear?  He transfered to UWEC at the semester break, I hear. Ha.

[Greek Tragedy]

Thought I'd cut and paste this from the CCIW board.

There are too many other variables that go into the A:TO ratio to compare teams across the country using that stat.  On January 6, Elmhurst had 14 assists and 16 turnovers vs Augustana.  The same night Wooster had 24 assists and 12 turnovers vs Denison.  What does it mean about Elmhurst vs Wooster?  Nothing.

Agree - but Point's A/TO ratio of 1.79 is almost mind blogging.  I ran some stats - that is more than 3 standard deviations above the mean.  And it is not from bogus assist numbers - they do not turn the ball over.  They are #1 in the country in that stat - now 1.4 ahead of #2.  The spread from #2 to #50 is 3.6. 

An A/TO ratio of 1.2 would put you one standard deviation above the mean - i.e. top 16%. 

Looking the other way, Point's opponents have an A/TO ratio of .785.  The Pointers are playing very solid, fundamental basketball.

I am a big fan of Bill James and sabrmetrics.  I don't know how important statistical analysis is to basketball but UWSP has some off the chart statistics - real outliers - that may show the secret to their success.

Yes this should be on the WIAC board.

[UWPSUPERFAN77]

Dear Bulk: I will take Chris Rock, now that we have the Goose back! Blessings!

[UWPSUPERFAN77]

On the serious side, Will check on Tuesday to see if any tickets are left. they said they anticipate a sell out.I might even be in trouble for a ticket, as get in with the cheap 20 tickets for70.00 deal. God Bless!

[Greek Tragedy]

Barring unforeseen circumstances, I'll be heading to Whitewater tomorrow for the big Stout/Whitewater game where I can point to Anthony Mlachnik and yell, "HE'S ON MY FANTASY TEAM!!"  So you better earn your start, Anthony!   I could yell the same thing to Jason Clopton, but I'm not starting him...you better outplay him.  No pressure.  Feel free to say hi...as usual, the guy in the NY Rangers starter jacket and the purple Pointer hat.

[chmarx]

Interesting statistics on turnovers.

I understand that John Wooden claimed that the team with the most turnovers usually won.

[buf]

UWO wins by 3 over RF

Lax was leading Superior by 24 in the 2nd half