Empire 8

[Bombers798891]

Crazy game at the Bulb as Ithaca misses a chance to put some distance between them and the rest of the conference. Five teams now sit with two losses in conference play. With Ithaca playing 6 of the 8 remaining games on the road, there's a very real chance they go something like say, 18-7 and don't even qualify for the conference tournament.

Phil Barera with a statement game on offense...19-of-25 shooting for 38 points. Simply unreal. Rossi with 20 points and 13 assists. Barera is simply a beast inside. To be shooting 68% and taking that many shots is astounding.

Neither team played a semblance of inside defense. Hartwick was 32-of-45 on two point shots and Ithaca was 28-of-43.

And that loss by the Bombers may well knock them out of the D3hoops Top 25. I fear the East Region wiill have no representation. Outside chance Oswego State with a win over Ithaca and the fact that their 3 losses are by a total of 7 points might get some support.

Bombers, you don't really believe what you wrote about Ithaca, thatthere's a very real chance they may not qualify for the conference tournament? The worst they do in those final 8 games is 5-3(which will be good enough) but more likely 6-2 or 7-1. I still believe they're the best team in the league and not only will they qualify for the E8 tournament, they will host it. Now whether or not they win it, well that's another story.

Why not? First off, I don't think the "worst" they could do is 5-3. They have to play two teams that already beat them. Second, they have to go to Stevens and Fisher, and it wasn't like the Bombers cruised in those games at home.

The math is a nightmare, so maybe it's not possible that a team goes something like 10-6 and gets left out.

But right now, there are five teams with two losses in conference. Someone's getting left out with a semi-decent conference record. Why couldn't it be Ithaca?

Sure, you look at a team like Ithaca and say "How can a team that talented not make it?", but then you remember...100 against Hartwick, 95 against Fisher, 92 against Wesley, 97 against Franklin and Marshall, 95 against Oswego State, 86 against Oneonta State, 87 against Hobart...

I think it's great that Ithaca can score 90-100 points a game. I think it's disconcerting that they often have to.

[magicman]

Bombers,
Of course you're right, Ithaca could go 4-4 or 3-5 and miss the playoffs. But aren't you playing devil's advocate just a bit. Let me put it this way: Where do you think the Bombers will finish in the regular season? If not in 1st place who will be ahead of them?

[sjfcards]

I can't see a scenario that does not have Ithaca in the tournament, I could understand if Bombers had said they may not host the tournament, but to not make it at all?

I will say that Ithaca's loss to Hartwick is going to make their road to the NCAA much tougher, with most of their games down the stretch being away from home. But, they still have to be the favorite to win the regular season conference race.

[Bombers798891]

I can't see a scenario that does not have Ithaca in the tournament, I could understand if Bombers had said they may not host the tournament, but to not make it at all?

I will say that Ithaca's loss to Hartwick is going to make their road to the NCAA much tougher, with most of their games down the stretch being away from home. But, they still have to be the favorite to win the regular season conference race.

Look, all I'm saying is that there's five teams with two losses, and one of them is going to get left out. Why not Ithaca? This is a team that went 4-4 on the road in conference play last season and has already lost on the road to a Utica team that looks pretty ordinary.

Are they going to make the tournament? Probably. I'd be stunned if they didn't. This team is something like 5th in the NCAA in scoring. But they're also something like 375th in scoring defense so it's not like they're bulletproof

[Old Duck]

As a side note it seemed that more the 1 of his game high 18 rebounds were made with Ithaca players in the area working to get the rebound.

Clearly you don't understand sarcasm...

I was commenting on this statement.

"It is worth noting that he and smith are the only two players with a double double right now. Although I'm not sure how seriously I take Smith's rebounds. I like my rebounds to be grabbed while another guy is right there and you have to fight for them. Smith catches them in space..."

Don't take it personally, it's just that I have watched him for quite a few years and one thing he is not is soft in the rebounding area.

[Cyclone0205]

@Old Duck - The sarcasm refers back to the whole Rossi "assists" discussion.  Not sure if you read the boards for that one but Bombs was just making a little jab about Smith rebounds = Rossi assists, in that some of them are chippies.  Not starting the debate again, just clearing up the joke from Bombs.

@ Bombs - I agree that Ithaca will be in the tournament but needs to be wary.  I am more opposed than you to the "we'll just outscore you" mindset of playing basketball, because it relies too much on something you can't control:  how you shoot.  As seen with Hartwick, even if your inside game is dominant, if you have built a culture, via practice and previous game play, of relying on shooting and out-running the competition, then either one of two things will lead to losses, generally both:  1) you don't shoot well and hence put up less points   and/or  2) the other team goes point for point with you and is used to playing for stops so they get just a few more stops than you.

I know as a player and coach it was always easier to get a team to score than to get a team to defend.  Scoring is a partially a product of what the opponent does:  If they don't defend well, I can get layups because I have competent college players on the court.  Meanwhile, you can't just "turn on" a defensive mindset in a game.

I do think that Ithaca will represent the E8 in the NCAA tournament so I think this style of play won't necessarily ruin them in conference, but certainly in the early tournament rounds if they get the wrong matchup.

[Bombers798891]

@Old Duck - The sarcasm refers back to the whole Rossi "assists" discussion.  Not sure if you read the boards for that one but Bombs was just making a little jab about Smith rebounds = Rossi assists, in that some of them are chippies.  Not starting the debate again, just clearing up the joke from Bombs.

@ Bombs - I agree that Ithaca will be in the tournament but needs to be wary.  I am more opposed than you to the "we'll just outscore you" mindset of playing basketball, because it relies too much on something you can't control:  how you shoot.  As seen with Hartwick, even if your inside game is dominant, if you have built a culture, via practice and previous game play, of relying on shooting and out-running the competition, then either one of two things will lead to losses, generally both:  1) you don't shoot well and hence put up less points   and/or  2) the other team goes point for point with you and is used to playing for stops so they get just a few more stops than you.

I know as a player and coach it was always easier to get a team to score than to get a team to defend.  Scoring is a partially a product of what the opponent does:  If they don't defend well, I can get layups because I have competent college players on the court.  Meanwhile, you can't just "turn on" a defensive mindset in a game.

I do think that Ithaca will represent the E8 in the NCAA tournament so I think this style of play won't necessarily ruin them in conference, but certainly in the early tournament rounds if they get the wrong matchup.

Cyclone-- Thanks for illustrating what I was going for with the rebounds

The thing with Ithaca is they seem to get frustrated and lazy when the jumpers aren't falling. Mullins absolutely lit into the team in the second half of the Wick game for not hustling. I've never seen him that angry before. Obviously, they responded well, because they rallied, but came up short. I remember Sean Burton's frustration in the 2009 E8 game against Nazareth as the Golden Flyers (smartly) abandoned trying to run with Ithaca and took the Bombers out of their style.

A lot of it relates to defense. Because the Bombers can't get a lot of stops, leads dissipate quickly. Even the Stevens game, where the Bombers played well defensively overall, the Bombers let a 16-point lead get down to two in the second half.

Again, I suspect the Bombers will make the tournament. But they're not the kind of team--or program--I feel comfortable saying "Guarantee" with.

I'm sure bomber3 thinks I get some secret pleasure out of watching Ithaca lose. On the contrary, I want what they and he wants. But I think the fundamental difference we have is that he's of the mindset that you should always believe in the teams you follow, where I feel that a mindset like that should be reserved for teams that have rewarded that faith in the somewhat recent past.

Case in point, as a Michigan State fan, this season has been brutal to watch. But how many times have the Spartans wandered through the regular season only to wind up in the Final Four? It may not happen this season, but MSU has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt, so I'll reserve judging till March. 

[sjfcards]

I can't see a scenario that does not have Ithaca in the tournament, I could understand if Bombers had said they may not host the tournament, but to not make it at all?

I will say that Ithaca's loss to Hartwick is going to make their road to the NCAA much tougher, with most of their games down the stretch being away from home. But, they still have to be the favorite to win the regular season conference race.

Look, all I'm saying is that there's five teams with two losses, and one of them is going to get left out. Why not Ithaca? This is a team that went 4-4 on the road in conference play last season and has already lost on the road to a Utica team that looks pretty ordinary.

Are they going to make the tournament? Probably. I'd be stunned if they didn't. This team is something like 5th in the NCAA in scoring. But they're also something like 375th in scoring defense so it's not like they're bulletproof

I guess I can see what you are saying. If you look at it on paper Ithaca probably has the toughest road of all the teams with 2 losses, but the talent level should make up for a lot of that. The nice thing if you are Ithaca is that you have gotten a bunch of wins early and out of conference so you may not need to hold up the Me trophy at the end of the year to get in (do they get a trophy?). To be honest I don't know off the top of my head how many losses they have but if they finish with 5 or 6 losses it is probably enough with some of their key wins.

[Bombers798891]

I can't see a scenario that does not have Ithaca in the tournament, I could understand if Bombers had said they may not host the tournament, but to not make it at all?

I will say that Ithaca's loss to Hartwick is going to make their road to the NCAA much tougher, with most of their games down the stretch being away from home. But, they still have to be the favorite to win the regular season conference race.

Look, all I'm saying is that there's five teams with two losses, and one of them is going to get left out. Why not Ithaca? This is a team that went 4-4 on the road in conference play last season and has already lost on the road to a Utica team that looks pretty ordinary.

Are they going to make the tournament? Probably. I'd be stunned if they didn't. This team is something like 5th in the NCAA in scoring. But they're also something like 375th in scoring defense so it's not like they're bulletproof

I guess I can see what you are saying. If you look at it on paper Ithaca probably has the toughest road of all the teams with 2 losses, but the talent level should make up for a lot of that. The nice thing if you are Ithaca is that you have gotten a bunch of wins early and out of conference so you may not need to hold up the Me trophy at the end of the year to get in (do they get a trophy?). To be honest I don't know off the top of my head how many losses they have but if they finish with 5 or 6 losses it is probably enough with some of their key wins.

That's a really good point. Ithaca's 13-4 right now. I would suspect they'd be in the hunt for a Pool C bid if they went, say, 18-7, even if they missed the conference tournament. But I confess to knowing nothing about the at-large selection process.

This is a good Ithaca team, no doubt. I think, from what I've seen on the court, they're stronger offensively than the 2008-2009 team. They've got guys who can shoot from the outside, guys who can get to the hole, and the best inside offensive threat in the conference. There's not that do-it-all player like Burton or a commanding inside defensive presence like Bostic, but you're right, they are the most talented team in the conference, and there's no reason they can't win the tournament.

But that last part is exactly why I will be hard on them if they lose. This team has been entirely too talented over the past 3+ years to go 0-4 in E8/NCAA tournament play, and at some point, you just have to win the games when it matters. It's time to get over that plateau.

[with age came?]

Magicman is probably the guy to ask but I think that a Pool C bid with 7 losses is very unlikely.  At this point it is very early to say but historically 7 losses is quite a few for a Pool C bid unless a few of the wins are absolutely stellar.

[magicman]

Magicman is probably the guy to ask but I think that a Pool C bid with 7 losses is very unlikely.  At this point it is very early to say but historically 7 losses is quite a few for a Pool C bid unless a few of the wins are absolutely stellar.

with age is correct when he says that historically 7 losses is quite a few for a Pool C bid.
Any team with 7 losses is not looking good for a Pool C bid. The only way that would occur is if a bunch of those 7 losses were out of region or to non-D3 teams.

Ithaca currently has 4 losses and unfortunately all of them are regional losses. Even 1 more regional loss would put them on shaky ground  but 2 or 3 more and the only post season trip they'll make will be to the ECAC's. The East hasn't exactly been a powerhouse region this year and we could be looking at very few Pool C bids coming our way.

East region teams that are still alive for a Pool C bid with regional losses noted:

Hobart    13-3 overall record   2 regional losses

Univ. of Rochester    12-4 overall   3 regional losses

Oswego St.    11-3 overall     3 regional losses

Plattsburgh St   10-5 overall     3 regional losses

Ithaca    13-4 overall    4 regional losses

Medaille   13-5  overall   4 regional losses

NYU   12-4  overall   4 regional losses

Stevens 11-4 overall  4 regional losses

Hamilton  9-5 overall  4 regional losses

Any East region team not listed here has no shot at a Pool C (at large) bid. When I say that these teams are still alive, a lot of them are on life support. 1 more regional loss will probably doom most teams with 4 losses already. The East region will get at best 2 Pool C bids but it wouldn't surprise me if we only get 1, and none isn't out of the question. If the current league leaders, Hobart, Oswego St, Ithaca, and Rochester, all receive the automatic Pool A bids, then the other teams in the running from those conferences better have a good run to end the season. They might get in with 1 more regular season loss and another loss in the conference tournament. But that loss in the conference tournament had better be in the championship game, because an early round tournament loss will be a killer. Hamilton found that out 2 years ago. They went into their conference tournament with an 18-6 record and only 3 regional losses but lost a first round game to RPI. They didn't get a bid. If they win that game and lose the next game in the finals they make the dance. Our chances for more East region teams getting to the NCAA's will increase if  Hobart, Oswego, or Ithaca win the regular season titles in their respective leagues, then get upset in their tournament. Of course that scenario is predicated on the fact that they continue to play well.

Rochester's in the UAA league and that conference doesn't have a tournament. The winner of the regular season will get the automatic bid. The  league always seems to get a couple of teams into the tournament and some years they've had 3 or 4 teams get bids. The UAA is a little down this year but if Rochester continues to play well (they currently are tied for 1st place with a 4-1 league record) they stand a decent chance to get a Pool C bid if they come up short in the regular season. The other teams in the East should be rooting for the Yellowjackets to win that automatic bid, because that would mean 1 less East team competing for a potential solitary Pool C.         

[magicman]

New D3hoops Top 25 poll out and as expected Ithaca drops out of the rankings.
Bombers fall into the others recieving votes category as they tumble from #22 with 59 points to #37 with 8 points. Only other teams from the East region to get a mention were Hobart with 2 points and Rochester with 1 point.

Here's the link to the complete Top 25 rankings:

http://d3hoops.com/top25/men/2010-11/week8

[scooterman]

The right hand man at RIT--better known as Stick--has really got the bigs boarding over there. Rumor has it that he was quite the rebounding machine back in his day at Eisenhower College in the Tin Gym.

[Bombers798891]

This Naz-Ithaca game on the 28th in really intriguing. It's really going to be do or die for Naz at that point. With four losses already in E8 play, (I think they'll top Alfred tonight) and four road games after it, they really can't afford to lose to the Bombers again.

It looms as a big game for IC too. The current 5th place team in the conference, RIT hasn't played them yet, and they're no slouch. IC needs to get this spate of road games off to a good start

[magicman]

FROMAFAR,
Well I gave you the winner of the Hartwick-Stevens game and almost had the exact MOV, missing by a point. Hope you got a bet down with one of those NY or NJ bookies. My prediction of Hartwick winning 72-69 was a little lower than the actual score of 82-78 , but I thought there would be a little more defense especially by the Ducks. Big win though for Hartwick as they move into a tie for 1st place. Don't think anybody saw the Hawks being this competetive this year.