Empire 8

[bomber3]

Always fun to take a look at early season predictions to see who was right (early predictions in green):

FROMAFAR's predictions:

E-8 standings......................

IC-----------Experience and talent
RIT----------Experience
Fisher------Coaching and reputation
NAZ---------Always there
Hartwick---Upcoming and good coach
Alfred-------PEP says good recruits?
Utica--------Unorganized.. needs new look
Stevens----lost Heart and talent.. starting all over- hayne recruits gone.
Elmira------Needs a lot of help...

Overall - not very accurate!  Way off with the Stevens/RIT picks.  Elmira, Utica, and IC only spot on picks.

Here are my predictions:


Its only the top 2 that matter:
1. Ithaca
2. Fisher

Bombers win the regular season title, win the E8 tournament, and win a game in the NCAA tournament.  Mark it down.  They have a tough schedule but nothing that prevents them from winning 20 games in my opinion.  I am predicting either a 6-3/7-2 non-conference record and 13-3 conference record.  20 regular season wins isn't out of the question.  

I would say that is a spot on prediction.  So far they got the 13-3 regular season record, 20 wins, and the regular season crown.  3-3 so far with 2 predictions to come (E8 tournament and NCAAs).  

2010 Empire 8 Men's Basketball Preseason Coaches Poll
1     St. John Fisher College (5)
2.      Ithaca College    (2)                                                
3     Rochester Institute of Technology (1)          
4.      Hartwick College                                          
5     Nazareth College                                      
6     Stevens Institute of Technology                  
7     Alfred University                                            
8.      Utica College                                                
9.      Elmira College                    

The coaches were way off with Stevens too.  RIT and Fisher were overrated but overall they were pretty accurate.

Pretty easy to be more accurate when you only predict two of the nine spots huh?

I will give you props for nailing the 20-5 down to the game.

Sorry, but you agreeing with me made me feel all awkward. I like it much better when we disagree with essentially everything each other writes. Order in an otherwise chaotic world, you know?

Yes it was pretty easy predicting only 2 spots - I thought I did the whole conference but I guess not.  And lets not get ahead of ourselves -- I won't say we're in agreement until I see your comments after this weekend... 

[Bombers798891]

Yes it was pretty easy predicting only 2 spots - I thought I did the whole conference but I guess not.  And lets not get ahead of ourselves -- I won't say we're in agreement until I see your comments after this weekend... 

Well, I'll lay it all out for you now. IMO, the Bombers are the best team in the conference. These last two weeks have shown that they have the most talent, and that, when on, the others in the conference aren't terribly close to them. They should win the E8 Tournament, and I predict they do. I will leave the NCAA's out, since that can depend on matchups, home court etc. But I will play the part of the arrogant IC fan:

Bombers by 14 over Fisher in the semis. And Bombers by 10 over Stevens in the final. This team has a shot to go down as the 2nd-greatest IC team ever.

But, now the flip side: If this team has a repeat of 08-09, I will call them out again. This year--to this point at least--is really no different than any of the last three. Failing to win the conference tournament and/or an NCAA game can, again, IMO, constitute nothing more than a disappointment, and a sign that the program still can't win when it truly matters. Unfortunately, it would be a sign that the program hasn't really taken a step forward from the 2007-2008 season.

While the regular season is different than the postseason, it sets the bar for expectations. You laid them out in the preseason, and I, who took longer to get on board, have the same ones now. Let's see what they do.

Also, since I've laid out my before-the-fact criticisms if there is a loss, feel free to get a jump on your defenses of my criticisms: "It was still a great season," "It's hard to beat a team three times in one season," "Live by the three, die by the three." Have I missed any?

I'd ask if you were going to the games and invite you to stop by, but I worry a fight would break out, and well, you'd probably win.

By the by, Phil Barera has a shot at 1,000 points if the Bombers don't screw this up--or maybe even if they do. At 949, it will take three games to get there at his current pace, but two might be enough. Fingers crossed for ya, Phil.

[bomber3]

Bombers - Understood, we'll see what happens this weekend.  And I appreciate the invite but I won't be able to make it so IC better have a webcast up.  And don't worry I don't take boards personally so there is no ill-will!

[FROMAFAR]

Agreed my predictions pretty bad, but I did have IC on top, I had Fisher in the playoffs...  big deal, and I did say you could flip flop Wick and Naz..... IC undressed the Ducks... Looked like the game plan was to let Rossi shoot.........stop others... that didn't work..... Ducks need a floor general.....

A new day and new predictions...
IC over Fisher
Wick over Ducks
IC finally gets it done.....

Ducks  could win a couple in ECAC........ Wick may get ECAC bid... I don't think Fisher does.

[bomber3]

Stevens was predicted to get an at large bid on the D3hoops link on its main page.  This doesn't factor in upsets I don't think so they need to make the championship game to have a shot one would think. So don't go sending them to ECACs just yet..

[Bombers798891]

Stevens was predicted to get an at large bid on the D3hoops link on its main page.  This doesn't factor in upsets I don't think so they need to make the championship game to have a shot one would think. So don't go sending them to ECACs just yet..

I agree. But this guy has the Ducks as one of his last four in, so if this projection is just taking the top seeded teams to win it all, the Ducks are in trouble

Where Stevens would almost certainly be done if they and Ithaca both lose in the first round. Not saying it will happen, but if it does, forget about getting in ahead of the Bombers or the E8 getting three bids.

But this makes me feel better about IC's chances of getting in even if they screw it up in the tournament.

But even losing in the final...I mean, does beating a 15-10 Hartwick really improve your resume that much? Dicey.

[FROMAFAR]

Hey guys, Stevens needs to win the e-8 to get in...AS I BELIEVE IC very may well have to win to get in too.  The E 8, I BELIEVE, and what do I know, is down this year talent wise... What Big wins does Stevens have outside the conference. The conference gets little if any play in top 25 which is correct. Let's face it boys, this years teams are a cut below the last few years. HOWEVER IC is the type of team that can scald anyone when they are clicking on all cylinders so I hope they go to the tourney because they may win a couple....  I think wick will surprised the Ducks, and it will be a shootout at IC for the Marbles.....

[Bombers798891]

Hey guys, Stevens needs to win the e-8 to get in...AS I BELIEVE IC very may well have to win to get in too.  The E 8, I BELIEVE, and what do I know, is down this year talent wise... What Big wins does Stevens have outside the conference. The conference gets little if any play in top 25 which is correct. Let's face it boys, this years teams are a cut below the last few years. HOWEVER IC is the type of team that can scald anyone when they are clicking on all cylinders so I hope they go to the tourney because they may win a couple....  I think wick will surprised the Ducks, and it will be a shootout at IC for the Marbles.....

I think the Bombers are ok to be honest. Part of it is that Stevens is good and the Bombers beat them twice

Stevens has beaten Kean, 2nd in the Atlantic region. RPI isn't regionally ranked, but is pretty good as well. Their bigger problem is not having beaten IC, so they lack, IMO a single "good" in conference win. IC has two

[Bombers798891]

http://www.theithacajournal.com/article/20110221/SPORTS03/102210334/1128/Ithaca-College-aims-end-postseason-hex?odyssey=nav|head

Fantastic piece by Brian Delaney on IC's playoff struggles

[Dave 'd-mac' McHugh]

Final Regional Rankings are out before Selection Sunday: http://www.d3blogs.com/d3hoops/category/ncaa-stuff/regional-rankings/

[with age came?]

Oh yee gentlemen (and ladies too) with sharper minds then I - why would Ithaca "leapfrog" Rochester in the ratings?  Rochester did not lose?  Was the victory over Stevens on the road enough to justify the leap over a team that did not do anything to damage itself other than to get a bid? Inquiring minds want to know.

[Ethelred the Unready]

Oh yee gentlemen (and ladies too) with sharper minds then I - why would Ithaca "leapfrog" Rochester in the ratings?  Rochester did not lose?  Was the victory over Stevens on the road enough to justify the leap over a team that did not do anything to damage itself other than to get a bid? Inquiring minds want to know.

My guess is it had something to do with OOOOOOOOOOOOOOWP.

[Bombers798891]

Oh yee gentlemen (and ladies too) with sharper minds then I - why would Ithaca "leapfrog" Rochester in the ratings?  Rochester did not lose?  Was the victory over Stevens on the road enough to justify the leap over a team that did not do anything to damage itself other than to get a bid? Inquiring minds want to know.

1) As far as I can see, Rochester's got three wins over regionally ranked teams: Two over Brandeis (#10 in the NE) and Emory (#8 in the South).

2) Ithaca's got: Two wins over Stevens (#4 in the East), and wins over Hobart (#5 East) and Franklin & Marshall (#7 in the Middle Atlantic)

So that's 4 wins to 3 for Ithaca.

3) Then let's look at common opponents: Rochester has losses to Hobart and Nazareth, teams Ithaca went 3-0 against.

4) I would suspect the Bombers had a better SOS, because in addition to the regional wins they also had OOC games in region to teams like Penn-State Behrend (22-3) and Oswego (22-3)--albeit losses. Those teams are also ranked  (#3 Great Lakes, #1 East)

More wins over regionally ranked opponents, better record against common opponents, tougher schedule (again, just taking a glance at schedules, it seems like IC would get the nod there). Even though the regional records is worse, seems like Ithaca's got a better overall body of work than Rochester

[Ethelred the Unready]

Oh yee gentlemen (and ladies too) with sharper minds then I - why would Ithaca "leapfrog" Rochester in the ratings?  Rochester did not lose?  Was the victory over Stevens on the road enough to justify the leap over a team that did not do anything to damage itself other than to get a bid? Inquiring minds want to know.

1) As far as I can see, Rochester's got three wins over regionally ranked teams: Two over Brandeis (#10 in the NE) and Emory (#8 in the South).

2) Ithaca's got: Two wins over Stevens (#4 in the East), and wins over Hobart (#5 East) and Franklin & Marshall (#7 in the Middle Atlantic)

So that's 4 wins to 3 for Ithaca.

3) Then let's look at common opponents: Rochester has losses to Hobart and Nazareth, teams Ithaca went 3-0 against.

4) I would suspect the Bombers had a better SOS, because in addition to the regional wins they also had OOC games in region to teams like Penn-State Behrend (22-3) and Oswego (22-3)--albeit losses. Those teams are also ranked  (#3 Great Lakes, #1 East)

More wins over regionally ranked opponents, better record against common opponents, tougher schedule (again, just taking a glance at schedules, it seems like IC would get the nod there). Even though the regional records is worse, seems like Ithaca's got a better overall body of work than Rochester

UR also has wins against Hobart and Naz

[Bombers798891]

Oh yee gentlemen (and ladies too) with sharper minds then I - why would Ithaca "leapfrog" Rochester in the ratings?  Rochester did not lose?  Was the victory over Stevens on the road enough to justify the leap over a team that did not do anything to damage itself other than to get a bid? Inquiring minds want to know.

1) As far as I can see, Rochester's got three wins over regionally ranked teams: Two over Brandeis (#10 in the NE) and Emory (#8 in the South).

2) Ithaca's got: Two wins over Stevens (#4 in the East), and wins over Hobart (#5 East) and Franklin & Marshall (#7 in the Middle Atlantic)

So that's 4 wins to 3 for Ithaca.

3) Then let's look at common opponents: Rochester has losses to Hobart and Nazareth, teams Ithaca went 3-0 against.

4) I would suspect the Bombers had a better SOS, because in addition to the regional wins they also had OOC games in region to teams like Penn-State Behrend (22-3) and Oswego (22-3)--albeit losses. Those teams are also ranked  (#3 Great Lakes, #1 East)

More wins over regionally ranked opponents, better record against common opponents, tougher schedule (again, just taking a glance at schedules, it seems like IC would get the nod there). Even though the regional records is worse, seems like Ithaca's got a better overall body of work than Rochester

UR also has wins against Hobart and Naz

Yes, but since Ithaca does as well--and doesn't have the losses, those wins don't help them prove they're better than the Bombers.

Rochester went 6-2 in games against Hobart, St. Lawrence, Nazareth, RIT, Fisher and Elmira. Ithaca went 10-0 in games against those same teams. Advantage Bombers.