MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[2RMCFans]

^ we both quit smoking years ago.

We agree that anything is possible, but we think it not only implausible but highly unlikely that H-SC is going to beat 3 of the top 4 seeds in Salem this year.  There's just too much talent at the very top... and that's a good thing for all of us.

Best wishes to ALL for a successful, fun and classy tournament! 

GO JACKETS!!!

[algernon]

^ we both quit smoking years ago.

We agree that anything is possible, but we think it not only implausible but highly unlikely that H-SC is going to beat 3 of the top 4 seeds in Salem this year.  There's just too much talent at the very top... and that's a good thing for all of us.

Best wishes to ALL for a successful, fun and classy tournament!  

GO JACKETS!!!

It may be unlikely that HSC will win the tournament, but I think that it's neither implausible nor highly unlikely.  Actually, given the strength of the ODAC this year, I think that the same could be said of any team .... that each team has probably no better than a 1 in 3 chance -- at best --  to win the tournament.  (The top 3 seeds are the favorites .... collectively .... but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Randolph-Macon or Hampden-Sydney put together 3 solid games and take the championship.)

If I had money on the tournament, I might take EMU, since they have beaten every team in the conference.  Or I might take VWC or Guilford, either of which would have a strong chance of defeating EMU in the championship game, even though they have not yet beaten the Royals.

On the other hand, #1 EMU has previously been beaten by Bridgewater, who they will likely face in the quarterfinals, and they've been beaten by Hampden-Sydney, who they could face in the semifinals.

If RMC defeats HSC in the quarterfinal, will they play EMU or Bridgewater in the semifinal?  I'm sure it's going to be tough for them to defeat HSC again and even tougher for them to beat EMU.  But they could do it.

Who's going to win the likely semifinal between Guilford and VWC???  That's a killer game.

It should be an exciting weekend!

[Pat Coleman]

Given your last few posts, I thought you were giving up the facade of being someone else ....

Normally I will come to the defense of a poster who may be unfairly being characterized as being someone else.

...

[therock]

That's probably the first ODAC Championship game I ever attended.  If I remember correctly, my 7-year-old daughter went to the game with me, while our other children stayed at home with my wife.  That HSC team featured  a bunch of young Hampden-Sydney players who went on to the National Championship game in 1999.  Obviously, from the viewpoint of an HSC fan, it was a super game!  My daughter's now a junior in college; it's been a long time.

I'm guessing that you were not yet following Hornet basketball, right?

Yes, I had actually, considering I graduated from LC in 1995. Other than occasional great individual player, I don't try to remember much about basketball from those days, it wasn't pretty for LC that's for sure!

Scottie, you were only about 10 years old in 1995 and didn't graduate from LC until 2007.  I doubt that you were following Hornet basketball when the Tigers blew away the Hornets in 1997.

Given your last few posts, I thought you were giving up the facade of being someone else ....

Well I would say it was a facade, but it's not. Face it, there is more than just one LC fan out there as hard as that is for you to believe.

[Pat Coleman]

And apparently they all share the same computer?

Well I would say it was a facade, but it's not. Face it, there is more than just one LC fan out there as hard as that is for you to believe.

[pg04]

And apparently they all share the same computer?

Well I would say it was a facade, but it's not. Face it, there is more than just one LC fan out there as hard as that is for you to believe.

Game. 

[therock]

And apparently they all share the same computer?

Well I would say it was a facade, but it's not. Face it, there is more than just one LC fan out there as hard as that is for you to believe.

What are you talking about?

[algernon]

There are 20 Pool C bids to be had.  I'm convinced that, even if both Guilford and EMU lose their respective quarterfinals, Guilford (their regional W/L would then be 20-3) and EMU (their regional W/L then 14-3) would get Pool C bids.  In my opinion, these two teams are in, regardless of what happens in the tourney (like William Paterson, Washington U., Carthage, St. Norbert, Williams, MIT, Middlebury, Texas-Dallas, UW-Whitewater, UW-Stevens Point, St. Thomas, and Whitworth).

Either Virginia Wesleyan or Randolph-Macon will be the ODAC's 3rd team in the tournament, but the ODAC will not get more than 2 Pool C bids, so either team's getting in as a Pool C bid is contingent upon either EMU or Guilford getting the AQ.

Virginia Wesleyan could get in if they lost to Guilford in the semifinal, assuming GC or EMU gets the AQ.

Randolph-Macon almost certainly has to win the tournament, although I can imagine that the Yellow Jackets could get a Pool C bid if they defeated EMU in the semifinal and lost a close game to Guilford in the championship game, while Virginia Wesleyan lost a quarterfinal game to W&L.

Still, my imagination may be wild in suggesting that, since such a scenario would mean giving the Pool C bid to an ODAC team with 6 regional losses (RMC) instead of to an ODAC team with 5 regional losses (VWC) ...... that just seems like an extremely remote possibility, especially since VWC and RMC split their regular season games and VWC has lost to no other teams than Guilford & EMU this year, while RMC has losses to the #5 and #6 seeds.  I'm pretty certain that RMC would be stuck out in the cold with a 22-6 record if they don't get the AQ this year.  That's pretty much what happened last year, when the Yellow Jackets were left at home with a 20-6 season after they lost to Virginia Wesleyan in the quarterfinals.  It turned out that Guilford, with 5 losses, got the ODAC's only Pool C bid .... while RMC, with 6 losses, stayed home.

Others' thoughts?

[hasanova]

With the unbalanced schedule, RMC's loss to GC (in the only game they played each other last season) was probably the killer.  If you remember, they were co-champs at 14-2, but GC got the #1 seed and RMC #2.   The scenario is much the same this year, with both GC and EMU at 14-2 and EMU getting the #1 seed based on their lone meeting.  The difference this season, however, is Guilford only has the two losses total, so their Pool C chances, in my opinion, are much better than RMC's were last season.  I think VWC's 1-3 record against EMU and GC may hurt them unless they get past the semifinals.

[Brian Hamilton]

2RMCfans,

How unlikely is it that the top 3 seeds would lose in the Quarterfinal round of the tournament?  It happened last year!  The point is, anything is possible when it comes to a tournament!  I think the point that Algernon may be trying to emphasize is that the Tiger's have to like their draw compared to what it could be.  They match up pretty well with RMC and EMU, not as well with VWC (athleticism and quickness) and GC (rebounding).  Having to only play one of them to win the ODAC gives the Tigers a better chance.  Do I think they will win?  No.  Do I think they have a chance?  Yes.  They have played well against the teams that they will have to play.  They have only lost twice by more than 5 points to any ODAC team.  Considering they played 8 games against teams ranked in the top 25 , won 2 of those, were within 5 points in 4 more and only got beat badly in 2 games, they should feel confident.  In addition, they have beaten the two teams that they would have to face in the first two rounds this season.  They also traditionally play very well in Salem.  (Jacketlawyer commented on this before the HSC-RMC game.)  If the last few years have shown me anything, it is to expect the unexpected in Salem.  HSC has won the tournament a number of times from a 5 or lower seed.

All in all, I think this is shaping up to be a very good tournament!  The potential matchups (if seedings hold on Tuesday) are very intriguing.  I expect the top 3 to advance on Friday, but stranger things have happened.  Recall LC beating Macon when Macon was the #1 seed.

[2RMCFans]

Thanks for the reminder, Brian, we're well aware of the recent past... we simply said "we" don't think it's going to happen THAT way THIS year   Also, we don't think a 50-50 team is the one that will do it THIS year if it does get done again.  Stating once again for the record; yes, anything IS possible.

Algernon, R-MC only has 5 losses this season, so we don't know where you're finding a 6th "regional loss" for the Jackets.  You might want to double check your facts before prognosticating? 

GO JACKETS!!!

[algernon]

Recall LC beating Macon when Macon was the #1 seed.

Many Tiger fans recall Macon's loss to Lynchburg in 2004 with some degree of guilt about the delight they felt  .... 

[algernon]

Algernon, R-MC only has 5 losses this season, so we don't know where you're finding a 6th "regional loss" for the Jackets.  You might want to double check your facts before prognosticating?

2RMCFans .... You might want to read a bit more carefully.  As I stated earlier, the Yellow Jackets will have 6 losses if they fail to win the tournament and thereby get the AQ bid.  Unless they win the ODAC tournament, I think they have almost no chance of playing in the NCAA tournament, because there will be 3 other ODAC teams with fewer regional losses than the Yellow Jackets.  I can't imagine that the ODAC will get 4 teams into the tournament .....  It is pretty unusual to get 3 teams into the tournament and I'm not sure any DIII conference has ever gotten 4 teams into the tournament.

Guilford and EMU are going to the tournament.  That might be it for the ODAC.  If some other team wins the tournament and gets the AQ, the ODAC will have 3 teams in the NCAAs.  If Guilford or EMU wins the tournament, then the Marlins - with 21-23 wins and 5 losses -- might also get a tournament bid.

[Mr. Ypsi]

The UAA got four teams in in both 2007 and 2008, but they have a nearly unique advantage - they are spread across several regions, so sometimes have 2 or 3 teams 'at the table' at the same time.  I don't recall a one-region conference getting more than three teams in.

[algernon]

The UAA got four teams in in both 2007 and 2008, but they have a nearly unique advantage - they are spread across several regions, so sometimes have 2 or 3 teams 'at the table' at the same time.  I don't recall a one-region conference getting more than three teams in.

Please let me know if I've missed a conference with 3 or more bids in either of the past 2 years ....

Conferences with 3 bids in 2009:
UAA - Washington U., Brandeis, Carnegie Mellon
WIAC - Stevens Point, Platteville, Whitewater

Conferences with 3-4 bids in 2008:
UAA - Washington U., Brandeis, Chicago, Rochester
WIAC - Stevens Point, Platteville, Whitewater

The last time the ODAC got 3 teams into the NCAAs was in 2007, when the Tigers were the #5 seed and got the AQ by winning the ODAC Championship.  Virginia Wesleyan (23-4 at the time) and Guilford (22-4) received Pool C bids.