MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[2RMCFans]

^ that's a really nice post, toad22, and we just want to say to everyone headed to Salem this weekend, travel safely and let's hope for 3 great basketball games to draw more attention to the wonderful world of D-III basketball!

Also, congrats to your Mr. Shultz for the Josten's Trophy.  As a school with an alum and a coach who hold that unique honor, we know what it takes and we are proud for your player this year.

GO JACKETS!!!

[yj424]

Williams guard Wang is the best I heve ever seen in D3 IMHO.

[donho]

 yj424, I have seen my share of b-ball over the years. I can say this about Macon point guard, Eric Pugh He is well on his way to be as good as our all-american (justin short) from 2009. Numerous times this past week while watching Eric I caught myself saying" Did I just see what I just saw"?

[sludge]

I would think EMU's Kirby Dean was in that mix, too.

Yeah, I figured him for COY.  No quibble with Davis getting it, though.  None at all.

[Pat Coleman]

Dean and Palumbo, also Mitch Cole from Birmingham-Southern. What struck us about Davis was that he has his team in the Final Four without benefit of a single All-Region player, with only one even eligible for consideration (first- or second-team All-ODAC).

[sludge]

Dean and Palumbo, also Mitch Cole from Birmingham-Southern. What struck us about Davis was that he has his team in the Final Four without benefit of a single All-Region player, with only one even eligible for consideration (first- or second-team All-ODAC).

Gotcha, yep.  Remarkable balance.
RMC fans had some tough times mid season.  They lost like, a couple of games.  Everybody was worried.  I thought it was a riot. ;-)
EMU has at least two guys who are really remarkable.
And Guilford has what they bring. 

[donho]

 Sludge,  I for one from the beginning of the year said I think they(R-MC) are over ranked. And I stood and still stand by that. Until after that awful game against HSC things did not look good for R-MC . I am not sure what turned it around, BUT something did.( Glad you thought it was a riot.) I think the team is finally playing towards their potential. But they are not there yet. Hopefully they will continue to reach for higher things.

  GO JACKETS!!!!  QUAKERS TOO UNTIL SATURDAY!!

[sludge]

Sludge,  I for one from the beginning of the year said I think they(R-MC) are over ranked. And I stood and still stand by that. Until after that awful game against HSC things did not look good for R-MC . I am not sure what turned it around, BUT something did.( Glad you thought it was a riot.) I think the team is finally playing towards their potential. But they are not there yet. Hopefully they will continue to reach for higher things.

  GO JACKETS!!!!  QUAKERS TOO UNTIL SATURDAY!!

Yep donho, it wasn't my team so I was loose about it.  I remember your realism during the season. 
You're a hard sell, though;  it is tough to consider them over ranked at this point!

[hasanova]

FYI, the Guilford College Quaker Club is sponsoring a Hospitality Room for ALL ALUMNI AND FRIENDS (pun intended!) at the Salem Civic Center on Friday, March 19.  To accommodate our expected large crowd, we'll be in Section 1 of the Community Room by at least 3 pm.  Guilford tips-off with Williams College at 5, so please join us before the game!  

If you were at the ODAC tournament in February or at last year's Final Four, it's in the same area of the arena.  If you're not familiar with the Salem Civic Center, please ask one of the SCC's staff to direct you.

GO QUAKERS!

[John Gleich]

I'm going to refer to some of these numbers, so I might as well put them all together!

Ya know, the whole argument of "Williams would have had more losses if they played in the ODAC" might be true... but it might not be true either.

Let's take a look at the final four teams in terms of S.O.S.

Team	SOS Rank	Win %	OWP	OOWP	SOS
UWSP:	11	.846	.588	.559	.578
Randy Mac:	20	.727	.578	.530	.562
Guilford:	127	.929	.522	.530	.525
Williams:	170	1.000	.508	.545	.520

In one sense, one could say that Williams, because they didn't lose* may be the best team in the country, even if they didn't play the best schedule.  No one* beat them... so it can't be said that they would have lose if they played a different schedule.  I made that same argument for teams like Anderson, St. Norbert, etc, who had gaudy records but didn't have gaudy SOS's.  They matriculated up in what has been dubbed the St. Peter Principle after Gustavus Adolphus (of St. Peter, MN) from a few years ago when teams above them lost and they kept rising in the polls.  They really weren't that good... but because others above them lost, they seemed better, even though they weren't playing the greatest competition.  At a certain point, they should have just stopped rising in the polls (the argument I made for Anderson and St. Norbert was at about 15, or so) until they were challenged by a top team.  That argument (up to 15) holds because both those teams had lost a game or two at that point, and not to a top team.  Now, each team can have an off night and lose a game they should win (such as Whitworth losing to Pomona-Pitzer, in my opinion) but if it's two such losses, then it casts skepticism on if their record is really representative of how good they are... when they don't have a great SOS.  If, however, they lose just 1 game to an average team, than that might have been an off night... but I don't think they should matriculate higher than about 15.

All that is to say that Williams is undefeated* so they really might be that great, no matter what their S.O.S.  Now, one might add that they haven't truly been tested by tough competition... so when the rubber meets the road, they won't be as prepared as a team that has played a tough schedule.  Furthermore, if they haven't lost, then they haven't gone through the maturity and learning that a loss provides, such as weaknesses that would otherwise not come to light.


*Of course, however, Williams isn't undefeated... they've actually lost to Randy Mac, so this string of logic doesn't flow fully, though one might be able to say that this victory was, perhaps, aided by RMC's home court advantage.  I'm not necessarily going to take this line myself, but I don't have a dog in that particular fight...  the WIAC had an .80 win percentage this year and the ODAC would have struggled there too!   

Here are some numbers comparisons of the teams:

Team	Off Eff	Def Eff	Avg Poss/Gm	Off PPG	Def PPG
Point	114.6	92.4	129.0	74.0	59.5
R-M	105.1	90.7	141.7	74.6	64.1
Guil	115.8	95.5	140.1	81.7	66.5
Will	122.8	93.2	138.6	85.2	64.5

The Off/Def efficiency takes Points/100 possessions and the possessions are compiled by this algorithm:

Poss = FGA - ORB + T.O. + (.475*FTA)

The possession numbers per game above are the offensive possessions plus defensive possessions and can be used to see the pace at which teams like to play.

Here's another rubric... it looks at FG%, 3P%, 2P%, % of makes and attempts that are 2's and 3's:

Offensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	49.5%	36.4%	53.9%	25.1%	74.9%	18.4%	81.6%
R-M	47.7%	37.0%	53.2%	34.3%	65.7%	26.7%	73.3%
Guil	47.3%	37.9%	51.7%	31.6%	68.4%	25.3%	74.7%
Will	52.7%	45.8%	56.9%	38.4%	61.6%	33.4%	66.6%

Defensive

Team	FG%	3P%	2P%	%A3P	%A2P	%M3P	%M2P
Point	41.1%	31.9%	45.9%	34.3%	65.7%	26.6%	73.4%
R-M	40.3%	30.8%	44.2%	29.3%	70.7%	22.4%	77.6%
Guil	40.0%	32.5%	45.7%	43.2%	56.8%	35.1%	64.9%
Will	39.3%	32.5%	42.4%	31.3%	68.7%	25.9%	74.1%

I don't have time for any analysis right now of these numbers... but the SOS DOES need to be taken into account when looking at these.

Alright, as promised, here are some more stats.  This time, it's a break down of how many points per game come from 3's, 2's, and FT's and the percentage of the overall points this is.  First set of numbers are offensive, second are defensive.


   

UWSP	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	15.4	45.4	13.2
% of points:	20.8%	61.4%	17.8%
PPG from:	17.1	31.5	10.9
% of points:	28.8%	52.9%	18.4%

   

R-M	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	21.4	39.2	14.1
% of points:	28.6%	52.5%	18.8%
PPG from:	15.5	35.8	12.9
% of points:	24.1%	55.8%	20.1%

   

Guilford	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	22.0	43.4	16.2
% of points:	27.0%	53.2%	19.8%
PPG from:	25.8	31.8	8.9
% of points:	38.8%	47.8%	13.4%

   

Williams	3Pt's	2Pt's	Ft's
PPG from:	29.4	39.1	16.8
% of points:	34.5%	45.8%	19.7%
PPG from:	18.8	35.9	9.8
% of points:	29.1%	55.7%	15.1%

These numbers should be paired with the other numbers I posted... and it's going to give us more of a clear idea what these teams rely on and do well.

I think the two semi-final games are going to be very different.  In the Williams/Guilford game, you have two pretty potent offenses.  In Williams, you have a pretty unique situation... not only are they the best 3 point shooting team in the country (in terms of 3 point percentage), they also have the best overall shooting percentage too.  They shoot 45.8% from 3 and 56.9% from 2.  That's efficient!  And it isn't like they don't shoot a lot of 3's... they do.  Fully 1/3 of their made shots are 3's.  Of course, going back to the discussion from earlier, Williams hasn't played as difficult a schedule as the other 3 final four teams... but those numbers are still pretty darn impressive.

Interestingly, likely due to Guilford's size inside, of the last 4 teams standing, they have the highest percentage of shots against that are 3's (43.2%).  And they have held teams to 32.5% shooting from downtown... So of the three possible opponents for Williams, they very well might meet their greatest test against Guilford in terms of attacking a defense because of how teams have attacked Guilford throughout the year.

Interestingly, both Point and Randy Mac played even tougher schedules than Guilford and have higher rated defenses!  So while it's true that Guilford is used to defending a lot of 3's, both Point and Randy Mac are better at it!

I think that the Guilford/Williams game is going to be a game that is in the low 80's.  This is a bit of a change for Williams... they have only had one game in which they let up more than 70 points and didn't score more than 90, and that was against Randy Mac.  On many levels, Williams should have won that game... they were up double digits in the second half and outshot and outrebounded RMC.  But Williams turned the ball over 13 times to just 6 for RMC and they took 6 and made 5 fewer free throws... and that was all she wrote.


Here are some more numbers, this time with assists and turnovers.  To be honest, I'm not too concerned with the assist numbers... I'm more concerned with the turnover numbers and with the forced turnovers.  Again, offensive numbers are first, defensive numbers are second.


   

UWSP	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	410	305	1.34
Per Gm	13.2	9.8
Total	285	401	0.71
Per Gm	9.2	12.9

   

R-M	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	470	530	0.89
Per Gm	14.7	16.6
Total	293	476	0.62
Per Gm	9.2	14.9

   

Guilford	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	453	414	1.09
Per Gm	14.2	12.9
Total	405	400	1.01
Per Gm	12.7	12.5

   

Williams	Assists	TO's	A/TO
Total	468	348	1.34
Per Gm	15.6	11.6
Total	281	317	0.89
Per Gm	9.4	10.6

Point is the only team with a positive turnover ratio.  All of the other teams turn the ball over more than their opponents.  This could become important... Playoff basketball is possession-by-possession basketball and if you can eliminate your mistakes and maximize those of your opponent, then you put yourself in a very good position to win. 

I noticed with my last post that Randy Mac had the highest possession-per-game average of the final 4 teams (it isn't as significant an increase over Williams or Guilford, but it is there).  What I found interesting about this is that they aren't converting on the offensive end (thus their offensive efficiency number is the worst of the 4).  However, they have the best defensive efficiency because, even though there are more possessions, they have the second-best points-against average. 

I don't really know anything about how RMC plays, but many teams who let up few points do so by limiting the number of possessions that their opponents have to score.  But it seems to me that RMC isn't limiting their opponents' chances... they're just preventing them from scoring in an effective manner.  Part of this may be that, of the 4 teams, RMC's opponents haven't taken as many 3's as the other 3 teams' opponents have.  If you can limit the number of 3 attempts (and, thus, makes), then you're effectively improving your defense.  Now, of course, the shooting percentage matters.  If a team shoots 90% from 2 and 10% from 3, I'm going to let them shoot 50 3's and 10 2's (15 points from 3, 18 points from 2 for a total of 33 points) as opposed to 10 3's and 50 2's (3 points from 3 and 90 points from 2 for a total of 93 points).  This, of course, is a very exaggerated example but even if the shooting percentages are equal, say, for example's sake, .333 and you shoot 9 shots inside the arc and 9 shots outside... inside, you'll score 6 points, outside you'll score 9.

Anyway... that's all to say that I wonder how the RMC/UWSP game will go.  I have a feeling that the game will likely be more of a defensive battle, probably in the 60's.  RMC has what appears to be a more efficient defense, so Point could have some dififculty scoring...

But when you look at the average turnovers for both teams, that might shed some light on what could happen.

RMC turns the ball over an average of 16.6 times and their opponents turn it over an average of 14.9 times.  That's a total of 31.7 turnovers per game.  On the other hand, Point turns it over 9.8 times per game, and their opponents turn it over 12.9 times for a total of 22.7.  So RMC games average 12.7 more possessions per game... but those games also average 9 more turnovers per game.  So really, there's just about 3 more scoring possessions per game.  Point shoots a better percentage from the field, so I think that may be the tipping point.

Now, again, I don't know RMC's style.  I guess I'm making the assumption that it's conventional and not a gimmick... Because that could throw a wrench in things either way... either in RMC's favor if that gimmick works or in Point's favor if it doesn't. 


What style do Guilford and RMC play?  At what pace to they play?  Inside oriented?  Outside oriented?  Zone?  Man?  We've got a lot of numbers here... but those can be affected by different styles of play.

Any Williams fans able to provide that info too?  I'll post a bit of a preview of Point when I'm able.

[Jacketlawyer]

yj424, I have seen my share of b-ball over the years. I can say this about Macon point guard, Eric Pugh He is well on his way to be as good as our all-american (justin short) from 2009. Numerous times this past week while watching Eric I caught myself saying" Did I just see what I just saw"?

I've also been impressed with Pugh's play this year, and saying to myself what you said as well!

Doubt I'm going to be able to make the game on Friday unfortunately.  Unless I can cut out of my CLE early and redline it from Richmond to Salem, I'm not going to make it on time for a 7:00 tip-off.  But I'll be there on Saturday should Friday go the Yellow Jacket's way!

[sludge]

Continuing on PointSpecial's statistical theme, this time on rebounding.

	OffensiveR	DefensiveR	TotalR
UWSP	308	763	1071
OPPO	244	645	889
...
RMC	367	873	1240
Oppo	335	691	1026
...
Will.	252	890	1142
Oppo	308	617	925
...
Guil.	469	917	1386
Oppo	330	682	1012

	RPerGame	OppRPerGame	Margin
UWSP	34.5	28.7	+ 5.9
RMC	38.8	32.1	+ 6.7
...
Will.	38.1	30.8	+ 7.2
Guil.	43.3	31.6	+11.7

All these teams rebound well.  From this, we can hope for Guilford to win some rebounding battles, especially on the offensive boards.  If they hustle.

[hasanova]

http://www.digtriad.com/sports/article.aspx?storyid=138996&catid=13

Tuesday media interviews with Quaker Coach Palombo and players - I haven't listened yet, so I hope they're worthwhile clips.

[donho]

 Jacketlawyer, me to just can not do it friday. However have plans to leave the beach at 4 a.m. saturday ,run past Richmond allow my son to dive in the passing auto and head for Salem.
  Cause things will go the Jackets way!

[2RMCFans]

We love your optimism, don.  We'll be there on Friday & we think it's going to pull a swarm of Yellow Jackets fans-can't wait!

GO JACKETS!!!  GO QUAKERS!!!