MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[DeWayneCarter]

Where's Brandon Adair when you need him?   

On the VWC coaching staff.. the Marlins will be fine 

[donho]

 Now that it is what it is, I think both VWC and R-MC can play thru the second weekend if they play to their capabilities. GO JACKETS!! and I never expected I would say this....... GO MARLINS!

[hsctigers2002]

Final South Region Rankings:
SOUTH         
1   Virginia Wesleyan   23-4   21-4
2   Randolph-Macon   24-4   23-4
3   McMurry   20-6   21-7
4   Mary Hardin-Baylor   21-7   21-7
5   Texas-Dallas   20-5   21-6
6   Ferrum   20-5   23-5
7   Eastern Mennonite   16-5   22-5
8   North Carolina Wesleyan   16-4   21-6

Looks like EMU basically would have had to win the ODAC to get in even if they had beaten R-MC in the semis. Their final In-Region SOS was just .499 along with a 2-3 record against in-region ranked teams. With the emphasis on regional competition, it's hard to argue against EMU not getting in with their low regional ranking and low SOS.

Only one team ranked lower than #5 in their region got in - Western Connecticut, but they had a .800 In-Region winning %, .531 SOS, and a 4-2 record against in-region ranked teams. Looks like #5 in the region was the magic number. Only two of the Pool C teams had a losing record against regionally ranked teams as well, but both of them had a really good in-region winning % and a strong SOS - both superior to that of EMU

I don't know if that's the way it shakes out every year, but it looks like SOS makes a big difference. Perhaps if EMU would have had an SOS in the .530s or higher they may have had a chance, but at 2-3 against in-region ranked teams AND with that low SOS, they probably were never even seriously considered for a Pool C bid.

[Titan Q]

Looking at the broader picture, it raises the question for me of why Illinois Wesleyan at 19-8 got a Pool C bid and EMU didn't. Would be interesting to see the comparative OWP and OOWP for the two teams. I can't believe IWU's is significantly higher than EMU's, if it's higher at all.

Two thoughts here...

#1
I think somewhere since your post this has been covered, but to clarify, we know that Eastern Mennonite was never even discussed by the national committee -- because Ferrum never made it off the board from the South, and we know EMU was regionally ranked behind Ferrum.  

Assuming IWU was the last Pool C in (#18), these were the teams at the table at the very end...

(In-region winning %/In-region SOS/Record vs ranked teams)

* Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543/2-2
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504/3-4
* Stevens (E): .731/.512/2-2
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499/4-3
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509/2-3
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526/1-6
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471/1-3
* Carleton (W): .750/.528/5-4


EMU not getting in has absolutely nothing at all to do with Illiinois Wesleyan (or Wittenberg or Hanover or any other Pool C selected).  They never got on the board.

#2
You inquired about strength of schedule (SOS).   Here are the SOS numbers for the 18 Pool C teams that got selected:

1. UW-River Falls: .585
2. Williams: .558
3. Wittenberg: .552
4. Ithaca: .547
5. Illinois Wesleyan: .543
6. Hanover: .542
7. Western Conn: .531
8. WPI: .516
9. Mary Hardin-Baylor: .508
10. Oswego St: .507
11. Ramapo: .507
12. Va Wesleyan: .506
13. Becker: .505
14. Gwynedd-Mercy: .502
15. Concordia: .501
16. Texas-Dallas: .485
17. Penn St-Behrend: .481
18. Amherst: .464

SOS figures for the top two regionally ranked South teams not selected...

#6 Ferrum: .471
#7 Eastern Mennonite: .499


(All data referenced in this post can be found here - http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3)

[Kenleen]

Looking at the broader picture, it raises the question for me of why Illinois Wesleyan at 19-8 got a Pool C bid and EMU didn't. Would be interesting to see the comparative OWP and OOWP for the two teams. I can't believe IWU's is significantly higher than EMU's, if it's higher at all.

Two thoughts here...

#1
I think somewhere since your post this has been covered, but to clarify, we know that Eastern Mennonite was never even discussed by the national committee -- because Ferrum never made it off the board from the South, and we know EMU was regionally ranked behind Ferrum.  

Assuming IWU was the last Pool C in (#18), these were the teams at the table at the very end...

(In-region winning %/In-region SOS/Record vs ranked teams)

* Illinois Wesleyan (MW): .692/.543/2-2
* St. Joseph's LI (Atl): .769/.504/3-4
* Stevens (E): .731/.512/2-2
* Wabash (GL): .760/.499/4-3
* Leb Valley (Mid Atl): .720/.509/2-3
* Eastern Conn (NE): .680/.526/1-6
* Ferrum (S): .800/.471/1-3
* Carleton (W): .750/.528/5-4


EMU not getting in has absolutely nothing at all to do with Illiinois Wesleyan (or Wittenberg or Hanover or any other Pool C selected).  They never got on the board.

#2
You inquired about strength of schedule (SOS).   Here are the SOS numbers for the 18 Pool C teams that got selected:

1. UW-River Falls: .585
2. Williams: .558
3. Ithaca: .547
4. Illinois Wesleyan: .543
5. Hanover: .542
6. Western Conn: .531
7. WPI: .516
8. Mary Hardin-Baylor: .508
9. Oswego St: .507
10. Ramapo: .507
11. Va Wesleyan: .506
12. Becker: .505
13. Gwynedd-Mercy: .502
14. Concordia: .501
15. Wittenberg: .486
16. Texas-Dallas: .485
17. Penn St-Behrend: .481
18. Amherst: .464

SOS figures for the top two regionally ranked South teams not selected...

#6 Ferrum: .471
#7 Eastern Mennonite: .499


(All data referenced in this post can be found here - http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d3)

Having Ferrum on the boards ahead of EMU doesn't make sense when EMU beat Ferrum head-to-head.  The emphasis on region rankings is plain wrong.  The South Region teams avoided playing EMU.  If Ferrum and NC Wesleyan had played more games in the ODAC they would have had more losses, too.  Hampden Sydney, Guilford,  and Randolph were difficult wins.  HSC and Guilford will likely be contenders next year.

[PA Royals Fan]

Could someone help me understand some of this?  I am not up on how this part of the system works.  If I am a school that gets a call from a school like EMU, why would I ever accept a game with them?  I am not at all trying to be flippant or funny.  Here is a school without much history of success that is now winning. Why would a regional team want to give them a game?  It seems like a strange system.  Any school in the region would have to know that there is a good chance EMU would have beaten them so they would be hesitant to schedule them.

Another question, again potentially dumb but I don't know the answer.  Would have EMU been better served by just not filling their schedule?  Just leaving dates open rather than playing people out of the region?  Would they have been better served not playing in their own Classic and the Bridgewater Classic? 

I look forward to the experts on here helping me understand.

[hsctigers2002]

Reason to play EMU - Helps build your Regional Rankings resume win OR lose. IF you beat them, even better. Gives you a win over a regionally ranked opponent, increases your SOS. If you lose, increases your SOS, and since it is only one game it has a marginal effect on in-region winning %, and one loss to a regional ranked opponent can be made up with a win against another.

EMU would have been better served to play out of region teams or non-D3 teams rather than playing really poor south region teams like Shenandoah and Averett.
Since out of region and non-D3 opponents don't factor into the regional rankings as far as I know, they can't hurt the regional rankings.

However, doing that will make it more difficult to overcome a losing skid or a bad loss in conference play and make it more difficult to build up your win % and win totals because of the fewer # of games.

On the other hand, playing teams like Shenandoah and Averett are a lose-lose situation. I'm not sure if EMU was expecting Averett to be horrendous like they are but Shenandoah is typically a losing team (one winning season in the last 6 seasons). A game against a team like that is bad no matter what happens.

You win, well it gives you a win over an in-region team (which can be just as easily accomplished against a bottom feeding ODAC team), but hurts your SOS and doesn't give you a chance to get a win over an in-region ranked team. You lose, it hurts all three key things across the board, plus it a HORRIBLE loss on the resume.

[2RMCFans]

We're not experts & we're not trying to be funny either, but you should want to play EMU b/c they are a great team that will make your team better just by having to play them!  How long they've been a great team really isn't relevant to their future opponents, is it?  What's relevant is what they're doing consistently lately & of course, assuming their coaching/recruiting stays as strong as it is.

If all the teams thought of nothing but "who can we play & be sure to beat" D-III basketball would be pretty boring!  

Hopefully, you'll get some more expert answers like the one above here soon.

GO JACKETS!!!  GO MARLINS!!!!

[Will2Win]

Reason to play EMU - Helps build your Regional Rankings resume win OR lose. IF you beat them, even better. Gives you a win over a regionally ranked opponent, increases your SOS. If you lose, increases your SOS, and since it is only one game it has a marginal effect on in-region winning %, and one loss to a regional ranked opponent can be made up with a win against another.

EMU would have been better served to play out of region teams or non-D3 teams rather than playing really poor south region teams like Shenandoah and Averett.
Since out of region and non-D3 opponents don't factor into the regional rankings as far as I know, they can't hurt the regional rankings.

However, doing that will make it more difficult to overcome a losing skid or a bad loss in conference play and make it more difficult to build up your win % and win totals because of the fewer # of games.

On the other hand, playing teams like Shenandoah and Averett are a lose-lose situation. I'm not sure if EMU was expecting Averett to be horrendous like they are but Shenandoah is typically a losing team (one winning season in the last 6 seasons). A game against a team like that is bad no matter what happens.

You win, well it gives you a win over an in-region team (which can be just as easily accomplished against a bottom feeding ODAC team), but hurts your SOS and doesn't give you a chance to get a win over an in-region ranked team. You lose, it hurts all three key things across the board, plus it a HORRIBLE loss on the resume.

Although I agree with you 100% that SU is not a quality team....they did return a number of starters from a year ago in which they had decent success and the USAS coaches voted them pre-season #3 (with a number one vote) out of their respective 7 team conference...just a lil side note to add to that thought. I agree EMU didnt do all they could to help themselves when it comes to scheduling quality opponents that'll help you get an at large, because we all know how hard it is to go win it in Salem.

[Pat Coleman]

Could someone help me understand some of this?  I am not up on how this part of the system works.  If I am a school that gets a call from a school like EMU, why would I ever accept a game with them?  I am not at all trying to be flippant or funny.  Here is a school without much history of success that is now winning. Why would a regional team want to give them a game?  It seems like a strange system.  Any school in the region would have to know that there is a good chance EMU would have beaten them so they would be hesitant to schedule them.

Another question, again potentially dumb but I don't know the answer.  Would have EMU been better served by just not filling their schedule?  Just leaving dates open rather than playing people out of the region?  Would they have been better served not playing in their own Classic and the Bridgewater Classic? 

I look forward to the experts on here helping me understand.

Or the Southern Virginia Tournament. At that point what's left is what UW-Stevens Point and Whitworth did to find games this year, which is to play in the D3hoops.com Classic in Vegas. There are similar tournaments in Phoenix and Orlando as well.

[hasanova]

How good will EMU be next season?  With five key seniors leaving, I suspect it may be a few years before the Royals can duplicate the success they've had the last two years.

I think VWC and RMC will still be strong in 2011-12.  I also see HSC, Randolph and W&L as teams on the rise.  Guilford needed a year to rebuild a bit - I expect them to be a twenty game winner again.  I'm a little more uncertain about what next season holds for the Royals.   Anyone else have an opinion?

Roanoke, E&H, LC and BC - as they say in Missouri, show me what you can do.

[Will2Win]

How good will EMU be next season?  With five key seniors leaving, I suspect it may be a few years before the Royals can duplicate the success they've had the last two years.

I think VWC and RMC will still be strong in 2011-12.  I also see HSC, Randolph and W&L as teams on the rise.  Guilford needed a year to rebuild a bit - I expect them to be a twenty game winner again.  I'm a little more uncertain about what next season holds for the Royals.   Anyone else have an opinion?

Roanoke, E&H, LC and BC - as they say in Missouri, show me what you can do.

As a Royal supporter I may sound a bit biased, but I think EMU will be Okay. You are right next year will be somewhat of a rebuilding year and we're gonna have to see who's going to step up and shoulder the scoring load that we've relied heavily on the departing Sr's for over the past two seasons. With that being said swingman Andrew Thorne(Jr to be) will step into a starting role and could be next season's go to guy alongside (Sophies next season) guards Marlon Organ Vance Washington and R.J. Sims! They have kids that can put it in the net and they will play at a high level once again but there will be a few more bumps in the road next year. I believe the Royals do finish with a winning record though and I believe they'll surprise some ODAC fateful on how athletic and good they still are! Even after losing 5 GREAT srs! Big man Owen Longacre will see extended minutes, but in my honest opinion needs to put on about 20 pounds to his frame in order to compete in the ODAC night in and night out. Kirby must get a few bigs in this years class(as we have a number of quality freshmen guards from this past summers class)  if he wants to take the next step and win an ODAC title. We are athletic as anyone in the country (Believe it or not...we'll still be pretty darn athletic next season as well), but when we run into a team with some bigs we're in trouble....especially if we can't get out in the break early and often. Gonna be a young team, but they'll still be fun to watch. If I remember correctly Kirby had a young team 3-4 years ago starting and they ended up doing alright!

[stillfamily]

Pa Royals Fan,
              To answer your question (and I have first hand info), whether anyone 'should have' wanted to play EMU or not, no one would commit. Teams saw the writing on the wall with 5 Seniors. I know for a fact, that Coach Dean called over 50 schools looking for games and could only find one school willing to play (Wooster) that never happened b/c of a scheduling conflict  EMU scheduling ground to a halt when during the 2008-09 season EMU went 15-10 starting 4 sophomores.  Everybody took notice of the talent that was ahead. In today's college basketball landscape even D3 coaches are nervous about job security which makes scheduling tough for an up and coming program. 
As for the tournaments in Vegas....I was under the impression they were invitation tournaments and unless those tournaments were paying a hefty guarantee....it would be nearly impossible for a low budget program like EMU to play in a tournament like that.  EMU still doesn't even have a full time paid assistant because of budget constraints, so I'm pretty sure they can't fly the team to Vegas to build their regional resume!!  One last thing....one of EMU's non D3 games was against NAIA Southern Va.  Southern Va. went 9-1 vs. D3 competition with their only loss coming to EMU. They also defeated Ramapo on a neutral floor....yet that did nothing to build EMU's NCAA resume...all I can say is Wow!!  It almost appears to me that schools that are not as good the year before or who have budgets to fly and play anywhere (or pay guarantee's for home games) have a distinct advantage when it comes to selection Monday??
At the end of the day EMU was #11 in the nation and that didn't help them b/c of regional ranking criteria is the deciding factor!!!How can you be a top 25 team and not make the tournament of 61. I'll answer my own question, b/c national rankings mean nothing!! Yet, UW Riverfalls who has lost 5 of their last 6 games and is 20-7 overall makes the Dance??? WOW

[Will2Win]

Pa Royals Fan,
              To answer your question (and I have first hand info), whether anyone 'should have' wanted to play EMU or not, no one would commit. Teams saw the writing on the wall with 5 Seniors. I know for a fact, that Coach Dean called over 50 schools looking for games and could only find one school willing to play (Wooster) that never happened b/c of a scheduling conflict  EMU scheduling ground to a halt when during the 2008-09 season EMU went 15-10 starting 4 sophomores.  Everybody took notice of the talent that was ahead. In today's college basketball landscape even D3 coaches are nervous about job security which makes scheduling tough for an up and coming program. 
As for the tournaments in Vegas....I was under the impression they were invitation tournaments and unless those tournaments were paying a hefty guarantee....it would be nearly impossible for a low budget program like EMU to play in a tournament like that.  EMU still doesn't even have a full time paid assistant because of budget constraints, so I'm pretty sure they can't fly the team to Vegas to build their regional resume!!  One last thing....one of EMU's non D3 games was against NAIA Southern Va.  Southern Va. went 9-1 vs. D3 competition with their only loss coming to EMU. They also defeated Ramapo on a neutral floor....yet that did nothing to build EMU's NCAA resume...all I can say is Wow!!  It almost appears to me that schools that are not as good the year before or who have budgets to fly and play anywhere (or pay guarantee's for home games) have a distinct advantage when it comes to selection Monday??
At the end of the day EMU was #11 in the nation and that didn't help them b/c of regional ranking criteria is the deciding factor!!!How can you be a top 25 team and not make the tournament of 61. I'll answer my own question, b/c national rankings mean nothing!! Yet, UW Riverfalls who has lost 5 of their last 6 games and is 20-7 overall makes the Dance??? WOW

It is what it is Stillfamily...there's nothing we can do about it now, althought I wish we could. We were shafted and whether people want to admit it or not, we'd probably beat half the "criteria abiding deserving teams" in the words of these bogus administrators. lol
This entire thing is a joke.

[LustyLarryintheToilet]

Pa Royals Fan,
              To answer your question (and I have first hand info), whether anyone 'should have' wanted to play EMU or not, no one would commit. Teams saw the writing on the wall with 5 Seniors. I know for a fact, that Coach Dean called over 50 schools looking for games and could only find one school willing to play (Wooster) that never happened b/c of a scheduling conflict  EMU scheduling ground to a halt when during the 2008-09 season EMU went 15-10 starting 4 sophomores.  Everybody took notice of the talent that was ahead. In today's college basketball landscape even D3 coaches are nervous about job security which makes scheduling tough for an up and coming program. 
As for the tournaments in Vegas....I was under the impression they were invitation tournaments and unless those tournaments were paying a hefty guarantee....it would be nearly impossible for a low budget program like EMU to play in a tournament like that.  EMU still doesn't even have a full time paid assistant because of budget constraints, so I'm pretty sure they can't fly the team to Vegas to build their regional resume!!  One last thing....one of EMU's non D3 games was against NAIA Southern Va.  Southern Va. went 9-1 vs. D3 competition with their only loss coming to EMU. They also defeated Ramapo on a neutral floor....yet that did nothing to build EMU's NCAA resume...all I can say is Wow!!  It almost appears to me that schools that are not as good the year before or who have budgets to fly and play anywhere (or pay guarantee's for home games) have a distinct advantage when it comes to selection Monday??
At the end of the day EMU was #11 in the nation and that didn't help them b/c of regional ranking criteria is the deciding factor!!!How can you be a top 25 team and not make the tournament of 61. I'll answer my own question, b/c national rankings mean nothing!! Yet, UW Riverfalls who has lost 5 of their last 6 games and is 20-7 overall makes the Dance??? WOW

It is what it is Stillfamily...there's nothing we can do about it now, althought I wish we could. We were shafted and whether people want to admit it or not, we'd probably beat half the "criteria abiding deserving teams" in the words of these bogus administrators. lol
This entire thing is a joke.

I agree 100%