MBB: Old Dominion Athletic Conference

[narch]

In defense of my system, you obviously understand what the differences between my system and Massey are (D3 only vs. ALL games), however, you have missed the point of my system.  My point is to produce rankings that rank teams in a way which maximizes the prediction ability when looking at a specific game.  When it comes to the schedule strength, it's incorrect to say that my system is "counterintuitive" or has "serious shortcomings".  My system is not ranking a team's OVERALL strength of schedule, it is ranking a D3 ONLY strength of schedule.  I've tried to be very clear on the website and when responding to people's posts about the scope of my system.  If you have questions regarding it's validity, I welcome any and all emails and am glad to discuss the details.  Don't give up on it yet.

first, i have a profound respect for anyone who can put the time that you have into a statistical formula - your system clearly is well thought out and i imagine you've done a good deal of testing and research...no small task

in defense of myself, i didn't miss the point of your system at all...in fact, i think i understand it fully - read the highlighted portion of the last sentence of my previous post

the eddy system may do a great job of predicting d3 outcomes (70+%, according to the site), but as a measure of overall schedule strength, it has serious shortcomings, especially when you have a small sample size

and i'll stand behind the statement that your system has flaws (mu, cnu and w&l...and perhaps others...all have a significantly higher d3 owp than averett, yet all three have a sos ranked lower than that of averett) and is counterintuitive (replacing strong d1 or d2 opponents with average d3 opponents actually improves the strength of schedule) as it pertains to schedule strength measurements - i'm not saying that your system is without merit or useless, simply that it doesn't appear to be the best measure of schedule strength, which is where this whole conversation got started

[augie_superfan]

Well we will have to agree to disagree then.  Even if you just focus on d3 games only, my schedule strength comes from the ratings of teams directly.  Just because a certain team is 5-2 doesn't mean they are better than a 2-5 team.  I hope you can appreciate that fact alone.  If you agree with that, then you can take it one step further and say a team that has played opponents with a combine record of 20-10 hasn't necessarily played a tougher schedule than the other team with an opponents' combined record 10-20.

Massey sells apples, oranges, bananas and a million other things.  My fruit stand sells only apples.  You may disagree with my approach but selling only apples is my business model and doesn't make it flawed from that fact alone. 

[narch]

augie_superfan - you seem to be taking this as a personal affront, which i don't intend it to be...i'm simply pointing out what i think are flaws in the statistical analysis which you've presented - i appreciate this analysis and think that it can be a valuable tool when directly comparing two teams, but as a general measure of schedule strength, it seems to fall short

i happen to think that a .574 owp is a tougher schedule than a .500 owp...if the oowp for the .500 is significantly higher, i might change my mind, but in general .574 owp > .500 owp, yet your system says otherwise - is there a statistical explanation for this?

i also happen to think that a team which has played an 8-3 division 1 school and an 11-1 division 2 school has generally played a tougher pair of opponents than a team who has played 2 d3 opponents that go 5-3, but your system does not - i understand the scope of your system is to rank the strength of the d3 schedule, but to ignore those non-d3 games as though they weren't played seems to go against the grain in terms of measuring schedule strength

perhaps you could take these critiques and examine your analysis to improve it...or you could simply ignore it and the criticism and leave your system untouched - understand that regardless of what you do, there will always be folks who question your system...it isn't personal

[augie_superfan]

All I'll say is that with all the regionality in D3, I would think playing 0.500 teams out of the WIAC, NWC, CCIW, etc is much harder than playing 0.574 teams out of the AMCC, NECC, NEAC, etc.  So there is an example of how OWP in the D3 landscape can be very misleading.

My system barely...I mean barely takes into account who actually won the game.  It looks at the scoring margin and how "good" (not necesarily Win %) your opponent is.  Thus, losing to a top 10 by 1 shows me that a team is a lot better than a team who beats a relatively bad team (300+ ranked) by 40.  That difference won't show up in the OWP/OOWP world. 

It's the same arguement that happens every year when it comes to selection time.  You have teams in the Northeast region that can feast on top teams in those weak conferences whereas it is more difficult to do so in places like the West, South or Midwest.

[jdubyadubya]

2RMCfans - Thanks for squeezing in an actual post on an actual basketball game amongst all this drivel on SOS. I'm only interested in the ODAC because it is perhaps the most competitive conference in DIII basketball. I have no interest in SOS. I look forward to more basketball talk soon! 

[Seatfiller]

In ODAC news today/ yesterday:

Randolph lost to Hood today in OT 64-62

VA Wesleayn beat Wesley 96-74 yesterday

EMU is at Shenendoah tonight at 7

Bridgewater vs. North Central at 8

[HSCDad]

1:51 to go  EMU 74  Shen 71       Halftime  North Central 36  Bridgewater 20

[HSCDad]

EMU up by 5 with 27 seconds to go but ended at 77-77 so into OT.  Hate that Rand lost but nice that they could travel to Puerto Rico.  ACC update - NC State had .8 sec to get ball in and score which they did for 2 point victory over St Bonventure

[narch]

My system barely...I mean barely takes into account who actually won the game.  It looks at the scoring margin and how "good" (not necesarily Win %) your opponent is. 

please feel free to use the usasac board (this way any odacer's who are interested in your system can follow the discussion there without us clogging up their board with "drivel" such as comparing the relative strengths of basketball teams within the odac and south region ) to explain to me how you measure "good" while barely taking into account wins/losses, owp and oowp as a basis for this measurement

i have a couple of questions related to your above post:
is there some subjective measure of "good" in your system?
aren't wins/losses implied in scoring margin (a positive scoring margin=win, a negative scoring margin=loss)?

i would also be interested to see your response to my previous question about how averett's sos is significantly higher than mu's sos rank, despite averett being at .500 owp (at the time) and mu being at .574 owp - given that both are in the same region and have primarily played d3 games against in-region foes (and have at least one common opponent), your "regionality" response does not seem to apply directly

lastly, i'd like to know how you feel your system can give a true measure of strength of schedule when non d3 games are thrown out of the equation...i called this counterintuitive, and you have rebuffed that assertion

i look forward to seeing your responses on the usasac page - thanks!

[hsctigers2002]

EMU had to go to overtime to beat Shenandoah? Wow, that is just awful.

[hasanova]

There once was a forum with drivel
On S-O-S ... Gee, heads did swivel!
So please rest assured
To keep the "hoops" pure
Only scores, stats and stuff are now civil!   

[Brookland]

There once was a poet named 'nova
Who saw drivel start takin ova
So he ended it quick
With a sharp limerick
And the forum's now rollin in clova

Nice work, 'nova! LOL

[hasanova]

Brookland's a dodger whose rhyming
Plated me sharply - what timing!
It's an art to address
With a limerick, no less,
Cacophonous runs still chiming!

Brookland 1, Smite 0

[jdubyadubya]

Hmmm. It's obvious I should pay more attention to SOS. It's more a part of my life than I thought it was. I will seek counseling and deal with it!

[Brian Hamilton]

Sounds like a lot of people may need counseling with the lack of D3 ball being played right now.